Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

[VW82]

I really think a lot of you are confusing a dialed back offensive scheme and QB responsibility for improvement. 

 

Are you actually watching the other rookie QBs play or are you just comparing stats? Either way, it's not close with Baker and Darnold right now. Those guys are light years ahead of Allen in terms of not only execution on the field but the sophistication that allows their coaches the freedom to put together more complete game plans. 

 

Fans are blaming our coaches for crappy game plans when it's Allen's rudimentary understanding of NFL defenses (not to mention our own offense) that's holding the coaches back in the first place. 

 

Perhaps Rosen has been equally bad. I haven't watched him so I don't know.  

Edited October 16, 2018 by VW82

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

That seemed to blame the WR more than JA, if you extrapolate what he is saying.

 

Some is on Allen and some is on the supporting cast.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

That seemed to blame the WR more than JA, if you extrapolate what he is saying.

using the good old rational thinking  again I see?    

 

Don't spoil his fun on crapping all over JA.   he's got to get his fix in.  

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I really think a lot of you are confusing a dialed back offensive scheme and QB responsibility for improvement. 

 

Are you actually watching the other rookie QBs play or are you just comparing stats? Either way, it's not close with Baker and Darnold right now. Those guys are light years ahead of Allen in terms of not only execution on the field but the sophistication that allows their coaches the freedom to put together more complete game plans. 

 

Fans are blaming our coaches for crappy game plans when it's Allen's rudimentary understanding of NFL defenses (not to mention our own offense) that's holding the coaches back in the first place. 

 

Perhaps Rosen has been equally bad. I haven't watched him so I don't know.  

 

He's lagging behind all three of them and it should come as no surprise to anyone.   That's the current snap shot.

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Some is on Allen and some is on the supporting cast.

His real criticism here is that he doesn't trust his arm, which is true in this game because he didn't make some throws but that could have been coaching (scaling back throws), and we all know he very much trusts his arm, except perhaps now.

 

Not trusting man coverage, and pulling ball down and running against man coverage, when also saying WR are not getting open against man coverage is not really a criticism of JA.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

His real criticism here is that he doesn't trust his arm, which is true in this game because he didn't make some throws but that could have been coaching (scaling back throws), and we all know he very much trusts his arm, except perhaps now.

 

Not trusting man coverage, and pulling ball down and running against man coverage, when also saying WR are not getting open against man coverage is not really a criticism of JA.

 

The problem is that sometimes they are open, but he'll pull it down when he should not. 

 

While Allen completed 2-of-3 passes against the Texans’ zone for 39 yards, the lack of trust he shows in his arm was most evident on some of the biggest windows he will ever see. On this second-and-11 play, the Bills call a slant/flat combo, referred to more specifically as a D-slant. The offensive line cuts the edge rushers so that the throwing lane is clear and Benjamin, running the three-step slant, throttles down in the window, but Allen decides not to throw it. Luckily, he is still able to gain yardage. Allen seems to trust his legs more than his arm and that is a habit he needs to break.

[Kelly the Dog]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The problem is that sometimes they are open, but he'll pull it down when he should not. 

If you are looking for him to make the right choice 90-100% of the time right now, under these circumstances, you are right, he does. But he also pulls it down too early and runs for TDs, the one TD in the game, against the Titans.

[ctk232]

4 hours ago, mjt328 said:

Wish I could see it.  But I don't.

Right now, I'm seeing Josh Allen struggling to complete anything beyond the line of scrimmage with even the slightest level of consistency.  I can't say that for any of the other quarterbacks starting - Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen.  Those guys are struggling, but at the very least, they seem to have the basics down.

 

The most common play we've seen from Brian Daboll's offense is the bootleg/swing pass to the right side of the formation.  It's probably the simplest play for a quarterback, because he's not forced to read the defense and not throwing down field.  But even on these plays, Allen is about 50-50 on throwing the ball too low for his receiver. 

 

Anything where Allen is required to actually scan the defense has been a total disaster.  He hesitates, holds the ball too long, then panics and either drifts backwards or bails to his right side.  To me, this is an area where he is actually regressing from the preseason.  He's feeling phantom pressure, and trusting his legs instead of his protection.  We are only seeing maybe once per week where he steps up into the pocket and delivers a decisive throw.  And even then, most of these have been off-target.  For all the raving about his arm talent, I don't think he's thrown a single catchable deep ball the entire season. 

 

Sure, there are flashes a few times each week.  But they are sporadic and inconsistent.  You can't look at his mechanics and say - "It really looks like the coaches are working with him on his footwork."  It was all over the place in college, and it's still that way 90% of the time.  You should see him making a conscious effort to stay inside the pocket - even when it goes against his instincts.  Instead, it looks like he's hanging his helmet on the Minnesota game and trying even harder to win with his legs.  Compare how long it takes Allen to read the field now, versus how it was in Week 2.  I'm not seeing improvement.

 

Of course, it's way too early to make a judgment on Allen.  Several quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Jared Goff) were absolutely dreadful as rookies, but eventually progressed and became very good.  Hopefully our guy does the same.  But I don't think we need to pretend we are seeing something that we really aren't.

 

 

Completely agree - being objectively critical isn't the same as saying "he isn't the answer." There's a lot that Allen hasn't grasped yet that the other rookies do have despite whatever statistics people may cite.

 

Beyond that, to your point of being coached. It looks like he's been "involved" in offensive discussions, but the coaches are otherwise trying to scheme around him than for him. I don't believe Culley is the guy to shape him into an NFL qb, not in the least - he's had no consistency in development, and while no one should expect things to turn around over night, he should be able to focus on one thing at a time and improve. 

 

I know it was discussed on the board and dismissed early on, but apart from hiring a new QB coach (which we desperately need to), why not give Allen more time with the QB coach he worked with in the off season? Shoot, I'd love to see Romo on our sidelines more than Culley...who knows, maybe he becomes the OC we've wanted all along (not serious, but nice to think about.)

Edited October 16, 2018 by ctk232

[Figster]

 

 

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#Bills OC Brian Daboll says he’s seen improvement from Josh Allen despite what the numbers suggest. #Bills

 

[thurst44]

5 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Your eyeballs need adjustment.  Allen looks lost out there all too often.  By any objective measure he's behind. 

His point is that so are Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield. It may be a dubious claim, but what are these objective measures? Do you have stats or All-22s that show the other three first round QBs adjusting at a faster rate. My unscientific eye/stats test has it at Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, but that is certainly subject to dispute.

 

Ok, fair enough, I edited this, b/c I do see you have a posting of someone's All--22 analysis, so that's at least something.

Edited October 16, 2018 by thurst44

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

If you think Allen is in the same zip code of the other 3 rookies I don't know what to tell you. His QB rating is a whole 11 points lower than the next worst rookie. That is an astronomical gap. It would be no big deal if we were talking 70 vs 81. But 61 vs 72 is alarming. 

 

Sure the completions percentages are on par with Mayfield and Rosen but so what. He has one bad metric that is on par with those guys? What about ypa, sack rate, TD/INT percentage? Allen is woefully behind in all of those. I'm done with making excuses for players. After 20 some years of futility at the QB position I'm not going to look for excuses to explain why a guy is actually better than his dreadful numbers show.

[Teddy KGB]

39 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The problem is that sometimes they are open, but he'll pull it down when he should not. 

 

 

 

 

Last year you enjoyed this brand of quarterbacking ???

[billykay]

5 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

False! He's truthfully behind the curve of the others as expected.  

You're being extremely nice in your evaluation. Except for his running & athleticism, he simply has not produced. Will that change in time ? Who knows. Personally, I doubt it. If we don't look for a QB in the next draft, it looks like we will be in the market shortly thereafter. His biggest attribute - his strong arm - means squat. His long throws are a zip code away from the receiver. This is what you get when you value size & arm strength over accuracy and the ability to assess the field in 2-3 seconds. We shall see.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

The team is 2-2 in games in games Allen started and finished.  The team is 0-2 in games he did not start and finish.  Compared with the other rookie QBs his effectiveness in helping his team win games is as good as theirs. 

 

 

Let's be real here. Allen is supported by the 3rd ranked defense in the league. The other guys are supported, or dragged down, by defenses ranked 28th, 22nd and 19th.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I agree with his "remaining areas" for improvement. NFL open and Pre-Snap/Reading a Defense. 

 

However, he is averaging 151 ypg passing across five starts and hasn't thrown a TD pass in (3) straight starts.

 

Now that defenses have some tape on him, can Allen overcome those scheme changes? 

 

 

In terms of progress, it would be one thing if there was a 40 yard throw, followed by an ill-advised interception, followed by a 27 yard laser over the middle, followed by a poor throw on an out route. That would correctable rookie mistakes, but using the arm talent to create chances. 

 

But what I am seeing more of is a stagnation in the offense. Nothing happens. What you don't want to have happen is the familiar discussion of is Allen being told to not throw the ball or is he simply unwilling to pull the trigger or he can't see "NFL open". This discussion has been had ad nauseam by Bills fans with Trent, EJ and Tyrod. 

 

I want Allen to keep playing as soon as he's ready. Derek Anderson starting is a waste of time and the Bills are just going to have to put Allen back in anyways. 

 

We saw this in 2014. Had the Bills known at the end of 2013 that EJ was not the answer, they could have had Carr or Bridgewater and been on their way. Instead, they traded a #1 and a #4 for a WR to help EJ, and that experiment lasted 4 games, with EJ never playing meaningful snaps again in the league. 

 

Until QB is solved, we have to keep taking one. The QB room is going to be cleaned out anyways because Anderson is not coming back next year and neither should Nate Peterman.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

6 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams.

 

People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys.

 

I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are:

1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate.

2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. 

 

Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era:

1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues.

2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field.

3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest.

4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs.

 

When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started.

 

I'm so glad this wasn't a statistical argument manipulated in Allen's favor. Nice analysis.

[Kelly the Dog]

13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I agree with his "remaining areas" for improvement. NFL open and Pre-Snap/Reading a Defense. 

 

However, he is averaging 151 ypg passing across five starts and hasn't thrown a TD pass in (3) straight starts.

 

Now that defenses have some tape on him, can Allen overcome those scheme changes? 

 

 

In terms of progress, it would be one thing if there was a 40 yard throw, followed by an ill-advised interception, followed by a 27 yard laser over the middle, followed by a poor throw on an out route. That would correctable rookie mistakes, but using the arm talent to create chances. 

 

But what I am seeing more of is a stagnation in the offense. Nothing happens. What you don't want to have happen is the familiar discussion of is Allen being told to not throw the ball or is he simply unwilling to pull the trigger or he can't see "NFL open". This discussion has been had ad nauseam by Bills fans with Trent, EJ and Tyrod. 

 

I want Allen to keep playing as soon as he's ready. Derek Anderson starting is a waste of time and the Bills are just going to have to put Allen back in anyways. 

 

We saw this in 2014. Had the Bills known at the end of 2013 that EJ was not the answer, they could have had Carr or Bridgewater and been on their way. Instead, they traded a #1 and a #4 for a WR to help EJ, and that experiment lasted 4 games, with EJ never playing meaningful snaps again in the league. 

 

Until QB is solved, we have to keep taking one. The QB room is going to be cleaned out anyways because Anderson is not coming back next year and neither should Nate Peterman.

He threw two great 40 yard passes in a little more than a half on Sunday. Was not his fault a FB lined up as a WR on the opposite side of the field which had nothing to do with the play was not lined up correctly.

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I agree with his "remaining areas" for improvement. NFL open and Pre-Snap/Reading a Defense. 

 

However, he is averaging 151 ypg passing across five starts and hasn't thrown a TD pass in (3) straight starts.

 

Now that defenses have some tape on him, can Allen overcome those scheme changes? 

 

 

In terms of progress, it would be one thing if there was a 40 yard throw, followed by an ill-advised interception, followed by a 27 yard laser over the middle, followed by a poor throw on an out route. That would correctable rookie mistakes, but using the arm talent to create chances. 

 

But what I am seeing more of is a stagnation in the offense. Nothing happens. What you don't want to have happen is the familiar discussion of is Allen being told to not throw the ball or is he simply unwilling to pull the trigger or he can't see "NFL open". This discussion has been had ad nauseam by Bills fans with Trent, EJ and Tyrod. 

 

I want Allen to keep playing as soon as he's ready. Derek Anderson starting is a waste of time and the Bills are just going to have to put Allen back in anyways. 

 

We saw this in 2014. Had the Bills known at the end of 2013 that EJ was not the answer, they could have had Carr or Bridgewater and been on their way. Instead, they traded a #1 and a #4 for a WR to help EJ, and that experiment lasted 4 games, with EJ never playing meaningful snaps again in the league. 

 

Until QB is solved, we have to keep taking one. The QB room is going to be cleaned out anyways because Anderson is not coming back next year and neither should Nate Peterman.

They could have Carr next year if they want.  He was the golden boy, and now looks like he's on the way out of Oakland.

 

Give Allen time. 

[Fred Clause]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It's far too early in his career to make a call on what he'll ultimately be.  I just want him to gain as much experience as possible this season with the team building up the supporting cast around him next year. 

Exactly, that’s why everybody screaming bust and unhappy about the record is being ignorant. First off this year was never going t be about competing now, 50+ million reasons saw to that. It was to be about developing Allen and rebuilding the defense. I imagine The offense was not supposed to be this bad, but if they were looking for better picks next year, maybe it was.  I think McCarron not being what they thought he was is the biggest thing that went wrong with the plan, this caused Allen to be inserted much sooner than expected. Unfortunately the BS hit to his elbow may slow his progression this year, it may also give him a chance to take a breath, step back an d review film, and study what has been happening so far. If it’s just a few weeks, it will be ok.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Fred Clause

[Jaywrizzo]

6 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams.

 

People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys.

 

I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are:

1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate.

2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. 

 

Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era:

1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues.

2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field.

3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest.

4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs.

 

When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started.

Hahahahaha