Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

[simpleman]

16 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

There seems to be plenty of fanboy bias on both sides.

 

9 TD 7 INT.  Some would say that's bad   

 

How many of those teams # 1 WR's have 10 catches for 32 targets?  

How many of those teams have a WR called a total bust leading the team in receptions and  yards?  

 

Allen hasn't been the best of them, but he's not had much help imo 

Again look at the figures. don't use excuses. All the rookies have excuses. None of their teams are that great.

 

Look at the QBR. It is designed to rate the QB himself and take into account the affect the quality the rest of the team around him has on his rating.

From Wikipedia

 

Total quarterback rating (abbreviated as total QBR or simply QBR) is a proprietary statistic created by ESPN in 2011 to measure the performance of quarterbacks in American football. It incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

Edited October 16, 2018 by simpleman

[billieve420]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

He passed for 19 yards vs the jets and was benched. 

 

Cant pay money for that.         Give me Allen all day everyday 

 

Definitely and that is why he isn't here anymore. He was getting paid too much and the team decided to cut ties. If he was making back up money he would probably still be on this team.

 

I am all in on Allen developing as we have no better options at our disposal. Now it is looking like he can't play this week. I say put Peterman out there until he is ready to come back as we can't have him on this team next year if he can't be depended on to be the backup QB. If he plays himself off the team so be it.

[dakrider]

Completely irrelevant which rookie QB looks better, especially after just 4-5 games.  Some QB's look very good until teams figure out their weaknesses.  And as noted about 500 times here, most successful NFL QB's have had very limited or poor rookie years.  
The other thing to note is I don't think a any Bills receiver could walk on another NFL team and be a starter.  

[Teddy KGB]

35 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

You do hate Peterman

 

Love

Mrs Peterman 

(what you called me last year in the preseason) 

 

Well he nailed that one.   

 

Peterman is awful 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

21 minutes ago, simpleman said:

Again look at the figures. don't use excuses. All the rookies have excuses. None of their teams are that great.

 

Look at the QBR. It is designed to rate the QB himself and take into account the affect the quality the rest of the team around him has on his rating.

From Wikipedia

 

Total quarterback rating (abbreviated as total QBR or simply QBR) is a proprietary statistic created by ESPN in 2011 to measure the performance of quarterbacks in American football. It incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

 

A made up statistic to make you feel better about your confirmation bias. No thanks.

 

[Bangarang]

Comparing Allen to Goff is somewhat reasonable on a statistical level. I don’t think we’ll hire some innovative offensive mind or put a bunch of talent around Allen for the comparison to go any further though.

 

Reminds me of the days when people constantly compared EJ’s stats to andrew Luck’s. It was silly then and it’s silly now.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Bangarang

[thebandit27]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Comparing Allen to Goff is somewhat reasonable on a statistical level. I don’t think we’ll hire some innovative offensive mind or out a bunch of talent around Allen for the comparison to go any further though.

 

Reminds me of the days when people constantly compared EJ’s stats to andrew Luck’s. It was silly then and it’s silly now.

 

Actually, it wasn't silly then, nor is it silly now

 

Nobody is saying that Allen is (or will become) Goff, just like nobody was saying that EJ was (or would become) Luck.

 

The problem is that you've wildly missed the point in both cases: rookies struggle, and often with the same issues.

 

Furthermore, the even greater point is that the Rams went and did what was necessary to give Goff a real shot; will the Bills do the same?

[Bangarang]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Actually, it wasn't silly then, nor is it silly now

 

Nobody is saying that Allen is (or will become) Goff, just like nobody was saying that EJ was (or would become) Luck.

 

The problem is that you've wildly missed the point in both cases: rookies struggle, and often with the same issues.

 

Furthermore, the even greater point is that the Rams went and did what was necessary to give Goff a real shot; will the Bills do the same?

 

I didn’t miss the point. People do this all the time with young QBs so they can feel better about the situation and provide some hope.

 

The reality is that the ones who look this poor and go on to become really good are few and far between.

 

And no, I don’t think we are going to put a bunch of talent around Allen. I think that will be the goal but I don’t see it actually happening. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

It's still relatively early, but as far as starting QB rankings go I've got:

25: Sam Darnold (63.8)

28: Baker Mayfield (58.7)

31: Josh Rosen (45.4)

32: Josh Allen (45.3)

[thebandit27]

29 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I didn’t miss the point. People do this all the time with young QBs so they can feel better about the situation and provide some hope.

 

The reality is that the ones who look this poor and go on to become really good are few and far between.

 

And no, I don’t think we are going to put a bunch of talent around Allen. I think that will be the goal but I don’t see it actually happening. 

 

No offense intended here: the bold sentence indicates that yes, unfortunately, you did miss the point.

 

Remove emotion from the discussion; this has zero to do with how anyone feels about Allen.  It's 100% an indication that rookies struggle, and quite often the nature of those struggles is quite similar in fashion.

 

It doesn't portend anything for Allen, just as it didn't portend anything for Goff or Trubisky.

 

The reality is that the ones that come into the league and don't struggle are few and far between.  Career arcs very for sure, but acting like Allen's performance is some heretofore unseen brutality amongst rookie QBs is simply intellectually dishonest.

Edited October 16, 2018 by thebandit27

[Jerome007]

That Allen is 4th of the 4 rookie QBs or on par with them, it's close enough. And I, personally, have mostly a good felling about him. Add very suspect gameplanning and schemes, no QB coach (maybe now Anderson will be one of sorts), WRs that really dont help at all, very few deep throws which could be his strong point, slightly below average OLine (no I didn't say bad or worse), tough defenses so far, only 5 games. Give the kid a chance you downers! He might not pan out but again, no clear indication of that so far.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

56 minutes ago, simpleman said:

Again look at the figures. don't use excuses. All the rookies have excuses. None of their teams are that great.

 

Look at the QBR. It is designed to rate the QB himself and take into account the affect the quality the rest of the team around him has on his rating.

From Wikipedia

 

Total quarterback rating (abbreviated as total QBR or simply QBR) is a proprietary statistic created by ESPN in 2011 to measure the performance of quarterbacks in American football. It incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

 

In a perfect world I might agree.   but the NFL isn't perfect.  If a penalty is WRONG but the Refs call it.  then guess what the stats are wrong.  

 

Having a crappy WR group is not an excuse, its a reality.   

 

KD is flat assed lazy and shows little effort and has dropped 68.75% of his passes

[Bangarang]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Career arcs very for sure, but acting like Allen's performance is some heretofore unseen brutality amongst rookie QBs is simply intellectually dishonest.

 

I hope you aren’t insinuating that’s what I did.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, joesixpack said:

I don't think he's behind Rosen, for sure.

 

He's in a different place than Rosen. 

 

Allen has some additional issues - mechanics on short gimme passes needing work for example - that Rosen does not have.  I would say Rosen is way ahead as far as reading the D and knowing where to throw.

 

That said, Allen has been seen to do a bunch of stuff that Rosen can't, and I've seen Rosen float some throws due to throwing off platform.  So it's closer than some folks have it.

[SoTier]

51 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Josh Allen is not the part of the equation that worries me.

 

The part that worries me is whether McD/Daboll/Culley can actually develop a project QB prospect and consistently put him in positions to succeed.

 

I dont think they can.

 

Totally agree.  I think McDermott is a good game day HC, and his judgement of defensive talent is pretty good.  On the offensive side, however, he simply sucks at talent evaluation of both coaches and players.  Saying that Daboll is better than Dennison is simply saying one's noxious crap and the other's slightly less noxious smelling crap.  That the Bills drafted a first round QB but didn't bother to upgrade the QB coach demonstrates how little McDermott cares about the offensive side or about developing his rookie QB.  Hell, the Bills didn't even get around to bringing in a bonafide veteran QB until five weeks into the season when Peterman utterly failed as the starter in the season opener.

 

Essentially, McDermott and his henchman Beane are pretty much expecting Allen to sink or swim on his own.  I don't expect the Bills to seriously improve the team around him either because they'll use the excuse that they have so many holes on defense and special teams, which in McDermott's universe, are infinitely more important than the offense.

 

42 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Indeed, which is why I think the parallel is so important.

 

LAR went out and added Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Cooper, Higbee, and Reynolds in a single offseason, and put them in the scheme of a young, creative, forward-thinking offensive play-caller.

 

Chicago went out and added Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, and Burton in a single offseason, and put them in the scheme of a young, creative, forward-thinking offensive play-caller.

 

What will we see this offseason?

 

As for the landmark of "getting it", I've always liked @K-9's 1,000-attempts barrier.

 

I don't we'll see much on offense in the offseason.  McDermott doesn't care about the offense, and even if he decided for some reason to go on an offensive FA spending spree, I don't think that any first rate offensive players (nor many second rate ones, either) will be willing to come to the Bills because of McDermott's Neanderthal offensive philosophy.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

I didn’t miss the point. People do this all the time with young QBs so they can feel better about the situation and provide some hope.

 

The reality is that the ones who look this poor and go on to become really good are few and far between.

 

And no, I don’t think we are going to put a bunch of talent around Allen. I think that will be the goal but I don’t see it actually happening. 

 

to a degree Yes, people do that.

 

on the other hand its a statement that says lets give the kid a chance to prove himself. 

 

I have no idea if JA will be any good, but I will give him time to prove himself.   Just like I gave Zay Jones a break for his dropsies last season.  

Edited October 16, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, simpleman said:

Again look at the figures. don't use excuses. All the rookies have excuses. None of their teams are that great.

 

Look at the QBR. It is designed to rate the QB himself and take into account the affect the quality the rest of the team around him has on his rating.

From Wikipedia

 

Total quarterback rating (abbreviated as total QBR or simply QBR) is a proprietary statistic created by ESPN in 2011 to measure the performance of quarterbacks in American football. It incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

 

When a group of folks decide to boil down a bunch of subjective evaluations into a number, that number is fairly meaningless.

 

It was a worthy attempt, but one need only look at total QBR game by game over the years to see that it's simply not very high value as a metric of QB abilities.

The most famous: https://www.businessinsider.com/tim-tebow-tom-brady-2011-10

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

to a degree Yes, people do that.

 

on the other hand its a statement that says lets give the kid a chance to prove himself. 

 

I have no idea if JA will be any good, but I will give him tome to prove himself.   Just like I gave Zay Jones a break for his dropsies last season.  

 

He is getting a chance.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I hope you aren’t insinuating that’s what I did.

 

Not you specifically, but it's been said on a routine basis on this board.

 

6 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I don't we'll see much on offense in the offseason.  McDermott doesn't care about the offense, and even if he decided for some reason to go on an offensive FA spending spree, I don't think that any first rate offensive players (nor many second rate ones, either) will be willing to come to the Bills because of McDermott's Neanderthal offensive philosophy.

 

I don't know that there's much to support that opinion.  They were clearly focused on "get the QB first, worry about everything else later" last offseason, so I think we'll learn quite a bit about their offensive team-building philosophy come this offseason.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Do you watch any NFL football games other than the crappy ones the Bills play?  Have you bothered to watch Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, or Josh Rosen actually play?  Have you even bothered to watch their highlights?    Did you bother to watch CJ Beathard, a third round rookie QB drafted in 2017 who has only a few more starts than Allen, play in MNF?  He threw 2 -- count 'em, 2! -- TDs to Bills reject Marquise Goodwin, and his team almost beat the Packers in Lambeau.  Allen has a long, long way to go to reach the level of his peers, and I doubt that the current Bills regime is even capable of developing a young QB -- or any offensive player actually.

 

 

This last is a valid concern from what I've seen