Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

[mjt328]

Wish I could see it.  But I don't.

Right now, I'm seeing Josh Allen struggling to complete anything beyond the line of scrimmage with even the slightest level of consistency.  I can't say that for any of the other quarterbacks starting - Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen.  Those guys are struggling, but at the very least, they seem to have the basics down.

 

The most common play we've seen from Brian Daboll's offense is the bootleg/swing pass to the right side of the formation.  It's probably the simplest play for a quarterback, because he's not forced to read the defense and not throwing down field.  But even on these plays, Allen is about 50-50 on throwing the ball too low for his receiver. 

 

Anything where Allen is required to actually scan the defense has been a total disaster.  He hesitates, holds the ball too long, then panics and either drifts backwards or bails to his right side.  To me, this is an area where he is actually regressing from the preseason.  He's feeling phantom pressure, and trusting his legs instead of his protection.  We are only seeing maybe once per week where he steps up into the pocket and delivers a decisive throw.  And even then, most of these have been off-target.  For all the raving about his arm talent, I don't think he's thrown a single catchable deep ball the entire season. 

 

Sure, there are flashes a few times each week.  But they are sporadic and inconsistent.  You can't look at his mechanics and say - "It really looks like the coaches are working with him on his footwork."  It was all over the place in college, and it's still that way 90% of the time.  You should see him making a conscious effort to stay inside the pocket - even when it goes against his instincts.  Instead, it looks like he's hanging his helmet on the Minnesota game and trying even harder to win with his legs.  Compare how long it takes Allen to read the field now, versus how it was in Week 2.  I'm not seeing improvement.

 

Of course, it's way too early to make a judgment on Allen.  Several quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Jared Goff) were absolutely dreadful as rookies, but eventually progressed and became very good.  Hopefully our guy does the same.  But I don't think we need to pretend we are seeing something that we really aren't.

 

 

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Troll Toll said:

I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams.

 

People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys.

 

I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are:

1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate.

2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. 

 

Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era:

1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues.

2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field.

3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest.

4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs.

 

When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started.

 

Do you watch any NFL football games other than the crappy ones the Bills play?  Have you bothered to watch Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, or Josh Rosen actually play?  Have you even bothered to watch their highlights?    Did you bother to watch CJ Beathard, a third round rookie QB drafted in 2017 who has only a few more starts than Allen, play in MNF?  He threw 2 -- count 'em, 2! -- TDs to Bills reject Marquise Goodwin, and his team almost beat the Packers in Lambeau.  Allen has a long, long way to go to reach the level of his peers, and I doubt that the current Bills regime is even capable of developing a young QB -- or any offensive player actually.

 

Edited October 16, 2018 by SoTier

[PearlHowardman]

8 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Allen has had some dud plays too. Holding the ball too long.  Some inaccurate throws. Some poor decision making in the pocket.  Right now these are called rookie mistakes.  If they continue into the middle of next year, then they will be called "bad QB" mistakes. 

 

Rookie mistakes?  I don't think so.  Josh Allen played this way in college.  Worse, he has NO competent coaches there for him.  And he has NO veteran QB ahead of him to learn from.

 

 

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

Rookie mistakes?  I don't think so.  Josh Allen played this way in college.  Worse, he has NO competent coaches there for him.  And he has NO veteran QB ahead of him to learn from.

 

 

1. Is Josh Allen and NFL rookie? Yes he is.  Facts are important.  It is an incontrovertible fact that he is a rookie.  
2. Are the things I called mistakes actually mistakes.  Yes they are. Once again facts are important

 

Put  1 and 2 together and you have "rookie mistakes"  The fact that you don't think they are rookie mistakes really has no bearing on the facts.   The fact is they are rookie mistakes.  Facts are important. 

[McBean]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He is.  Don't think.  Know. 

 

That’s your opinion not a fact. He’s not and Rosen has a HOF receiver + Kirk.

 

 

 

 

[billieve420]

49 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Just entered it as evidence.   

 

You cant be trusted to tell us definitive statements regarding qb play 

 

 

 

So who actually on the Bills was better than Tyrod? Where are all the people who said it couldn’t get worse than Tyrod when he got benched last year and that Peterman can do the same or better. Clearly the QB play has been worse this year.

 

At least we were developing a rookie so you have to be willing to go through the growing pains but if Tyrod was still here he would be the best QB on this roster which isn’t saying much.

[PearlHowardman]

8 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

1. Is Josh Allen and NFL rookie? Yes he is.  Facts are important.  It is an incontrovertible fact that he is a rookie.  
2. Are the things I called mistakes actually mistakes.  Yes they are. Once again facts are important

 

Put  1 and 2 together and you have "rookie mistakes"  The fact that you don't think they are rookie mistakes really has no bearing on the facts.   The fact is they are rookie mistakes.  Facts are important. 

 

3.  You are in denial.

[Teddy KGB]

5 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

 

So who actually on the Bills was better than Tyrod? Where are all the people who said it couldn’t get worse than Tyrod when he got benched last year and that Peterman can do the same or better. Clearly the QB play has been worse this year.

 

At least we were developing a rookie so you have to be willing to go through the growing pains but if Tyrod was still here he would be the best QB on this roster which isn’t saying much.

 

He passed for 19 yards vs the jets and was benched. 

 

Cant pay money for that.         Give me Allen all day everyday 

[PlayoffsPlease]

2 hours ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

3.  You are in denial.

I am not.   If you read my first post you will clearly see my point that if these mistakes continue into next year they will no longer be rookie mistakes.  But right now, while he is a rookie, they are rookie mistakes. . 

Edited October 16, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan
inappropriate language

[Epstein's Mother]

The thing that has worried me the most so far with Allen is his lack of accuracy on short passes.  That being said his throws on crossing routes have been mostly very accurate and a few have been amazing.  I'd like to see him throw a deep ball within 5 yards of a receiver but I haven't seen too many if any close calls on deep balls.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Epstein's Mother said:

The thing that has worried me the most so far with Allen is his lack of accuracy on short passes.  That being said his throws on crossing routes have been mostly very accurate and a few have been amazing.  I'd like to see him throw a deep ball within 5 yards of a receiver but I haven't seen too many if any close calls on deep balls.

He was better last Sunday on that if you watch each of the pass plays.

 

He's getting there.

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, Epstein's Mother said:

The thing that has worried me the most so far with Allen is his lack of accuracy on short passes.  That being said his throws on crossing routes have been mostly very accurate and a few have been amazing.  I'd like to see him throw a deep ball within 5 yards of a receiver but I haven't seen too many if any close calls on deep balls.

I have seen foster and benjamin drop very catchable deep balls.  He really has not made that many deep attempts. 

[GunnerBill]

I think he is 4th of 4. But I expected him to be 4th of 4 he was the most raw of the 4 and he was the biggest project of the 4 and truth be told there hasn't been a huge separation. Darnold has probably had two of the best games, but also one of the worst games. Josh has had one of the best and two of the worst, Rosen has been a bit more consistently middling and Mayfield has probably looked the most visually impressive but has also made the most game killing mistakes.

 

Allen needs to play better and he needs to improve. It looks like he probably won't play the next couple of weeks, which is a shame, because I am anxious to see him play in a way that doesn't leave me wondering if Minnesota was just a lightening in a bottle anomaly. But none of the 4 has really separated yet and it certainly isn't time for anyone to panic.

 

 

[Teddy KGB]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

When was this?

 

Couple of weeks ago 

[26CornerBlitz]

3 hours ago, McBean said:

That’s your opinion not a fact. He’s not and Rosen has a HOF receiver + Kirk.

 

It's the opinion of anyone who has watched both of them play regardless of who they are throwing to. 

 

Rosen is far better with command of the offense, pre-snap recognition, pocket presence and maneuverability, manipulation of coverage, accuracy, post-snap recognition, and throwing the ball into tight windows while under duress. 

 

Let's hear what you have to say to refute any of that.

Edited October 16, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[tumaro02]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Your eyeballs need adjustment.  Allen looks lost out there all too often.  By any objective measure he's behind. 

Well the big knock on him was accuracy and Mayfield has been anointed as the most accurate passer. Truth is YTD Mayfield is 55.6%, Rosen is 55.6%, and Allen is 54.0%. Based on that alone I would group them together and when you look at their QB rating that is also close (and pretty identical if you throw in Allen's 3 TDs via legs. By that I would say your eyes are bloodshot and you are looking for negativity to spew your trash.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, tumaro02 said:

Well the big knock on him was accuracy and Mayfield has been anointed as the most accurate passer. Truth is YTD Mayfield is 55.6%, Rosen is 55.6%, and Allen is 54.0%. Based on that alone I would group them together and when you look at their QB rating that is also close (and pretty identical if you throw in Allen's 3 TDs via legs. By that I would say your eyes are bloodshot and you are looking for negativity to spew your trash.

 

Classic box score scouting. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It's the opinion of anyone who has watched both of them play regardless of who they are throwing to. 

 

Rosen is far better with command the offense, pre-snap recognition, pocket presence and maneuverability, manipulation of coverage, accuracy, post-snap recognition, and throwing the ball into tight windows while under duress. 

 

Let's hear what you have to say to refute any of that.

Rosen was more ready coming in.  I personally wanted Rosen, he is more ready right now, but watching Allen I think he has more future upside.

[26CornerBlitz]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Rosen was more ready coming in.  I personally wanted Rosen, he is more ready right now, but watching Allen I think he has more future upside.

 

Only if he can master the all important mental aspects of the game to match his physical talent.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Only if he master the all important mental aspects of the game to match his physical talent.

 

You haven't watch the other QBs which is exactly why you're spouting stats just like a box score scout would. 

Right.  I think he's starting to figure things out more.  For all young QBs the game has to slow down for them.  

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Only if he master the all important mental aspects of the game to match his physical talent.

 

You haven't watch the other QBs which is exactly why you're spouting stats just like a box score scout would. 

How many people kept spouting off a 60% completion rate as if it was the be all and end all of how to tell if a guy can be successful?