BullBuchanan Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, oldmanfan said: I've said before that statistics are thrown around inappropriately in sports, especially football. There are so many dependent and independent variables to throw into a proper analysis that simply looking at one number such as completion percentage rarely can be correlated to much of anything. You would be right, except the players haven't show that to be true.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: The first guy on the list is 57! Math is hard?
BullBuchanan Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: The first guy on the list is 57! 56.2 < 57 last time I checked.
Success Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, oldmanfan said: I've said before that statistics are thrown around inappropriately in sports, especially football. There are so many dependent and independent variables to throw into a proper analysis that simply looking at one number such as completion percentage rarely can be correlated to much of anything. The coaches and Allen have addressed this a lot. They simply didn’t have the kind of offensive attack that lends itself to a high completion %
thebandit27 Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said: This post kind of proves my point. Allen was 56.2 lower than everyone there by a lot. No it doesn't...at all. As someone said above, you're talking about 1 incompletion per game different from those guys that were playing at big-time schools. And the point is that completion rate can indeed be improved in the NFL, and it happens quite regularly. As Kelly pointed out, Jim Kelly was a 55% passer in college. I think he did okay for himself.
Kelly the Dog Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, joesixpack said: Math is hard? Joe... you... YOU... YOU... are looking like the voice of reason these days. That must seem crazy even to you.
BullBuchanan Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: No it doesn't...at all. As someone said above, you're talking about 1 incompletion per game different from those guys that were playing at big-time schools. And the point is that completion rate can indeed be improved in the NFL, and it happens quite regularly. As Kelly pointed out, Jim Kelly was a 55% passer in college. I think he did okay for himself. And I said, exceptions don't prove rules. I made a specific point to say it's NOT impossible to overcome, but it is an overwhelming indicator. Which it still is. If you want to bet your life savings on Red 17, it could come up, but let's see who's ahead after 100 tries when i bet on black. Edited October 16, 2018 by BullBuchanan
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: Joe... you... YOU... YOU... are looking like the voice of reason these days. That must seem crazy even to you. I've been pretty pro-process and Allen for a while now. Feel like the only one around here.
thebandit27 Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: And I said, exceptions don't prove rules. I made a specific point to say it's NOT impossible to overcome, but it is an overwhelming indicator. Which it still is. If you want to bet your life savings on Red 17, it could come up, but let's see who's ahead after 100 tries when i bet on black. Except that when you said that poor completion percentage in college is an indicator of poor performance in the pros, you said you were 100% sure of that. That there are a number of current NFL starting QBs that buck that trend proves that it's more than a minute possibility, no?
BullBuchanan Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, thebandit27 said: Except that when you said that poor completion percentage in college is an indicator of poor performance in the pros, you said you were 100% sure of that. That there are a number of current NFL starting QBs that buck that trend proves that it's more than a minute possibility, no? I am 100% sure it is an INDICATOR of poor performance in the pros. an Indicator is not a fact, but when it's as overwhelming as it is, you can act like it's a fact, because you're far better off not betting against it. Then you proceeded to list a pile of quarterbacks with ~60% completion percentage, which is a strong number, as evidence my statement is false. You used evidence that supports my claim to try to discredit it without any additional commentary.
Fadingpain Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 9 hours ago, Troll Toll said: I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams. People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys. I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are: 1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate. 2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era: 1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues. 2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field. 3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest. 4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs. When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started. Your name is perfect. You're a troll! And if you think Josh Allen is on par with the other big named QBs in the draft, particularly Baker Mayfield.... Ah f it.
thebandit27 Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said: I am 100% sure it is an INDICATOR of poor performance in the pros. an Indicator is not a fact, but when it's as overwhelming as it is, you can act like it's a fact, because you're far better off not betting against it. Then you proceeded to list a pile of quarterbacks with ~60% completion percentage, which is a strong number, as evidence my statement is false. You used evidence that supports my claim to try to discredit it without any additional commentary. Come on man, read critically. There's no arbitrary line of XX% completion that determines ability to succeed in the NFL. The point is quite simple: accuracy can be improved in the NFL, and it often is...hence the list I provided. This isn't rocket surgery.
BullBuchanan Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Come on man, read critically. There's no arbitrary line of XX% completion that determines ability to succeed in the NFL. The point is quite simple: accuracy can be improved in the NFL, and it often is...hence the list I provided. This isn't rocket surgery. Yes, there is, as provided by hard data. NFL Accuracy is rarely improved significantly - Most QBs fail to improve college accuracy by 3 points. Most QBS with college completion percentage 56% or below are NFL busts. Many QBs below 59% college completion rates are busts. Most successful NFL QBs had college completion percentages above 59% and even more were very close to 60%. Read critically, lol. Edited October 16, 2018 by BullBuchanan
oldmanfan Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: You would be right, except the players haven't show that to be true. But some of them have. People have shown you examples of guys with less than 60% rates that are successful QBs. And if I were to go through your site I'd find some over 60% who didn't. Your statement is simply wrong and ignores evidence right in front of you.
thebandit27 Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said: Yes, there is, as provided by hard data. Most QBs fail to improve college accuracy by 3 points. Most QBS with college completion percentage 56% or below are NFL busts. Many QBs below 59% college completion rates are busts. Most successful NFL QBs had college completion percentages above 59% and even more were very close to 60% Okay, now take the above statements, and go back to the list I provided, and you'll get the point. Or maybe you won't...I don't know...I do know that I've stated it pretty succinctly though
Success Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 Just now, BullBuchanan said: Yes, there is, as provided by hard data. Most QBs fail to improve college accuracy by 3 points. Most QBS with college completion percentage 56% or below are NFL busts. Many QBs below 59% college completion rates are busts. Most successful NFL QBs had college completion percentages above 59% and even more were very close to 60% Put some more context on it. Have you checked into what kind of offense they ran in Wyoming?
Kelly the Dog Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Come on man, read critically. There's no arbitrary line of XX% completion that determines ability to succeed in the NFL. The point is quite simple: accuracy can be improved in the NFL, and it often is...hence the list I provided. This isn't rocket surgery. Not to mention that completion percentage often does not have a lot to do with accuracy. I was a Tyrod fan (by default) but he was not an accurate QB. Many of his completions were caught but not accurate. And guys like Eli Manning would literally throw 5 WR screens in a game to OBJ which made him 5-5 in the stats, which makes your numbers skyrocket and nothing to do with accuracy. Capt Checkdown had good completion percentage because he checked down all the time. Allen doesn't check down, doesn't throw many screens to WR or RB and is usually looking downfield to guys who are never wide open and rarely make great catches.
BullBuchanan Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Well then you missed a few key guys: Matthew Stafford had a college completion rate of 57% High end of low completion percentage. 61.1 Percent final (Junior year) Matt Ryan was 59.9% (Good Completion %) Carson Palmer was 59.1% (Low end of Good Completion %) Drew Brees--the most accurate NFL passer of all time--was 61.1% (Great completion %) Russell Wilson was 60.1%, and that's only because he had an ultra-efficient senior season of 72% passing; in his first 3 seasons as a starter, he was 57% High end of low completion percentage at JUCO. Excellent Completion % final season showing massive progress) Eli Manning was 60.8% (Great completion %) Thanks for proving my point. 4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Okay, now take the above statements, and go back to the list I provided, and you'll get the point. Or maybe you won't...I don't know...I do know that I've stated it pretty succinctly though Done. thanks.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 9 hours ago, Troll Toll said: I see a lot of buyer’s remorse going on with Josh right now and I really don’t get it. I don’t see the other rookie QBs lighting it up yet and Josh was the 3rd one taken. Had he not been injured, I think we beat the Texans and he moves to 3-2 as a starter with 3 wins against playoff caliber teams. People say they aren’t seeing improvements and I couldn’t disagree more. The deer in the headlights look is fading and the game appears to be slowing down. I’m seeing far fewer ill-advised decisions. He is still a work in progress (like all the other rookie QBs), but nothing so far makes me think he has any less ability to be successful than the other guys. I think the biggest remaining areas for improvement for Josh are: 1. Properly gauging what is NFL “open”. If he can get a grip on that this year, wait until he gets targets who can separate. 2. Presnap recognition. He is a really smart kid and I have confidence he will excel in this area over time. This is the first time he is seeing the exotic defenses of the NFL. Biggest reasons for optimism over QBs of the drought era: 1. The arm talent - Throw on any EJ or Fitzpatrick game and you’ll see head scratching zip code accuracy issues. 2. Use of the middle of the field - We rarely saw this with Losman and Tyrod. It completely handicaps an offense when you refuse to use half of the field. 3. Willingness to throw downfield - Trent Edwards was the worst at this. Defenses will play close to the LoS like they are moving the fielders in against the kid who sucks at kickball. You have to keep the defense honest. 4. Signs of pocket presence - We’ve gone through many QBs who had no feel for the pocket and would just take off at the first sign of pressure. Allen has shown flashes of poise, keeping his eyes downfield, stepping up in the pocket and making a throw. He still has a ways to go, but I didn’t even see flashes of this from past QBs. When you throw 23 passes a game, you generally won’t hit 300 yards. To do so would require ~13 ypa which is a phenomenal number. He is developing before our eyes, but it seems like a lot of folks can’t see the forest through the trees. My eyes tell me he is already on par with where Tyrod was a year ago and he is just getting started. Great post, now you have to change your name 1
Fred Clause Posted October 16, 2018 Posted October 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: So coaching and teammates has been the problem since Kelly retired? Or is it more likely we just haven't had a good QB in that time span? Again, I'm not making excuses. A good QB will rise to the top regardless of circumstances. Sure coaching and personnel can help. But you either have it or you don't as well. Let's just find a guy that has it. Enough of the excuses. You need to pull Sammy’s rib out of your butt, Allen had the least experience and was in the worst situation for learning in College. Everyone including draft experts said he was raw and needed a year or two to develop. And here you and other morons are calling him a bust after 5 games. He’s also in the worse position talent wise and has had the most difficult schedule. But hey your right, the kids toast...You would go far as a GM LOL .
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