THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - One That Got Away

[Shaw66]

52 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

 

I have been waiting years, ok - at least a decade, to see a Bill's team that made effective half time adjustments.

 

I think you're seeing now.   I watch for it. 

 

I couldn't come up with the first-half/second-half splits, but I think you'll find since McDermott got here that the Bills are winning the second half pretty consistently.  

 

Which team adjusted better at the half on Sunday?  Well, I don't know exactly what adjustments were made, but the Texans took the ball to open the half and the Bills took it away.   Adjustments?  I don't know, but the result was right.  Bills were losing at the half and took the lead.  Adjustments?  I don't know, but I do know the Bills outplayed the Texans in the second half, until Peterman started passing in the last two minutes.  

 

 

[GreatComeback]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Road wins in the NFL are big.  The Bills had a road win in their hands on Sunday, leading the Houston Texans by 3 with a couple of minutes left in the game.

 

The Bills let it get away.  Good teams win games like that.  The Bills aren’t good, not yet.  They look like they could be good, but they aren’t. 

 

Let’s state the obvious:

 

·         Special teams killed the Bills on Sunday.  Fumbled punt, blocked punt.  Both led to points.

·         Penalties killed the Bills on Sunday. 

·         Peterman killed the Bills on Sunday.  He simply cannot – CANNOT - throw an interception at that place on the field with the score tied.  The second interception wasn’t much better.  He just doesn’t see the field well enough yet, and I don’t know when he’ll get enough playing time to learn to see it better.  He looks like he needs to throw about 75 interceptions before he gets it.  And since this is the last I’ll say about Peterman, his touchdown throw was spectacular.

·         The Bills defense did enough to win the game.  The pass rush was great.

 

On to the less obvious.

 

One pattern that’s emerged over the past year and a half is that the Bills are a second-half team.  Especially with a limited offense, McDermott plays a conservative game for 30 minutes.  His objective is to stay within striking distance, because he expects his team to win the second half. 

 

They did that Sunday.  He needed his defense to get the stop at the end of the first half against the Texans, and they got it.  Then the defense turned the ball over to start the second half, and the Bills were in business. 

 

Of course, that pattern looks suspiciously like the style of play we saw when Dick Jauron coached the Bills: solid defense, stay close, run the clock, find a way to win (or lose) in the end.  That style is great to get you to .500; unfortunately, it’s also great to keep you at .500. 

 

There were signs of life on the offense.  Kelvin Benjamin ran some nice routes and made several nice catches, including going high for Allen’s off-balance throw deep down the left sideline that was called back.  Zay Jones looked like a real NFL receiver.  The Bills ran another wideout screen, and they found Clay over the middle nicely.  No one was mistaking the Bills passing game for the Chiefs or the Rams, but they made plays.  The Bills need more of it. 

 

LeSean McCoy is a player.  I say it every week, because the guy comes to play every week.

 

Tre White also is a player, and I haven’t been saying that.  Nobody throws at him.  Hopkins’ touchdown was what everyone has come to expect from Hopkins – an outstanding football play by an outstanding player.  White was right there; Hopkins just won that time.   That will happen. 

 

I think the Bills win the game, if Allen hadn’t been injured.  (Not that it mattered, but wasn’t that roughing the passer?  They have those rules to protect the passer, and then they don’t call it.)  Why do I think the Bills would have won?  One, because Allen understands ball security and won’t throw the INT at the end of the game.   Two, because he would have completed the pass on the play after his injury.  Three, because he’s a good QB.  Yes, he made a couple of poor throws again on Sunday, gimme throws that he needs to complete.  But I can live with that.  I love his pocket awareness, his escapability.  His running ability was on display again this week.  His running is an important weapon.

 

Compare Allen’s scramble to the right and completion over the middle to someone – McCoy or Clay – with Watson’s interception to Poyer.  More or less the same play, from the QB’s point of view.  The rule for young QBs is don’t throw late over the middle.  Not because it doesn’t work, but because young QBs don’t see the field well enough and don’t see some defender lurking.  Allen knew he had the throw and made it; Watson thought he had the throw, but almost from the moment he let it go you could see that Poyer could make a play.  We’ve seen Allen make very few rookie mistakes like Watson's. 

 

The Bills have their quarterback.

 

JJ Watt is extraordinary.  He made some plays on Sunday that were better than any play most guys make in a season.  Amazing quickness, strength and awareness.  And still, the Bills offensive line held up nicely, giving Allen time and giving McCoy room to run.  Offensive lines are having trouble all over the league.  I’ll say again what I’ve been saying all season – the Bills talent on the oline isn’t great, but it isn’t horrible.  Coaching makes the difference.  What else explains keeping Allen and Peterman upright against Watt and Clowney and Mercilus?

 

Meanwhile, Bills fans are the BEST!  Talk about travelling well!  Bills’ blue was all over the stadium on Sunday, and Bills fans were making noise.  The spontaneous chants were coming from Bills fans, not Texans fans. 

 

Bills blue was all over my hotel near the stadium, too. 

 

At lunch on Saturday a guy walked into the place wearing a Bills cap and got a few friendly boos.  I went over to talk to him.  Guy lives in Brooklyn, NY, has season tickets and goes to all the away games!  Sixteen games a year. 

 

Saturday night was the best.  We went to Christians Tailgate, the Houston Bills Backer bar, and we were blown away.  The place was packed.  The block was closed off, and the street was FULL of Bills fans.  There must have been 2000 people there, maybe 3,000.  Everyone was having a good time.  Just the noise was amazing!  (Being an old geezer, it was too loud for me, I’m usually done after one drink, anyway, so we found a place around the corner to have a beer and a burger and went home.  Can’t miss that beauty rest, you know.)

 

What now?  I like this team.  I like their intensity, their discipline.  I liked it with Jauron’s teams, too.  The Bills need to amp up the offense, and we saw a few signs of that Sunday. 

 

I’m worried about Allen.  The Bills need him on the field.  Right elbow injuries are problematic for throwers.  Assuming the Bills can get him back, I’m still expecting the Bills to be a pretty good team during the second half of the season. If Allen can't go, I hope Anderson can.

 

The Colts are another winnable road game, so the Bills have a chance to redeem themselves.  Time’s awastin.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

Do you have a blog Shaw?  Or do you just post here?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I don't know what games your watching Shaw. 

 

The Bills have a hard nosed defense. 

 

But you are looking a complete offensive teardown and rebuild in the offseason. 

 

Allen has few wow throws where you see the rocket arm applied. 

 

Last week it was Outstanding. The Bills are scoring 12.7 ppg. 

Edited October 16, 2018 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, GreatComeback said:

 

Do you have a blog Shaw?  Or do you just post here?

I just post here.  It's up on BillsMafia.com, too. 

15 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don't know what games your watching Shaw. 

 

The Bills have a hard nosed defense. 

 

But you are looking a complete offensive teardown and rebuild in the offseason. 

 

Allen has few wow throws where you see the rocket arm applied. 

 

Last week it was Outstanding. The Bills are scoring 12.7 ppg. 

I'm not sure what you're saying.  I wouldn't call it a hard-nosed defense, but I like it a lot.  It's impressive.  I don't think you can have a hard nosed defense with a middle linebacker who attacks running backs like it's two-hand touch.   In any case, I agree, it's a good defense. 

 

And I agree the offense needs a lot of work.  Whether it's a tear down, I don't know, but there's no doubt that it's completely inadequate right now.   With a decent offense, Bills would be 4-3 or 5-2 right now.  

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

 

Last week it was Outstanding. The Bills are scoring 12.7 ppg. 

Here's what I said last week:

 

The Bills were outstanding Sunday afternoon, beating the Tennessee Titans 13-12 on Stephen Hauschka’s 46-yard field goal on the last play of the game. 

 

“Outstanding?”  Yes, outstanding.  There is a lot to talk about in the NFL, but there is only one measure of success, and that’s winning.  When you make the plays to win, you’re outstanding. 

 

 “Really, outstanding?”  Yes.  When you put together a fourth-quarter drive to win the game, you’re outstanding.

 

I said the Bills were outstanding in the game.  I didn't say they were an outstanding team.  I said when you come from behind and win in the fourth quarter that's outstanding.  I said in a post later in the thread if as a fan, which is what I am and most of us are, when your team wins like that, it's outstanding.   

 

Anyone who read my Review last week knew or should have known I wasn't saying the team is a great team, a finished product, or anything like that.   I said it was an outstanding game.  I didn't say every play was outstanding, I didn't say the Bills dominated.   None of that.   I just said the game was outstanding.  Every game when the Bills come from behind to win is outstanding, as far as I'm concerned.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Here's what I said last week:

 

The Bills were outstanding Sunday afternoon, beating the Tennessee Titans 13-12 on Stephen Hauschka’s 46-yard field goal on the last play of the game. 

 

“Outstanding?”  Yes, outstanding.  There is a lot to talk about in the NFL, but there is only one measure of success, and that’s winning.  When you make the plays to win, you’re outstanding. 

 

 “Really, outstanding?”  Yes.  When you put together a fourth-quarter drive to win the game, you’re outstanding.

 

I said the Bills were outstanding in the game.  I didn't say they were an outstanding team.  I said when you come from behind and win in the fourth quarter that's outstanding.  I said in a post later in the thread if as a fan, which is what I am and most of us are, when your team wins like that, it's outstanding.   

 

Anyone who read my Review last week knew or should have known I wasn't saying the team is a great team, a finished product, or anything like that.   I said it was an outstanding game.  I didn't say every play was outstanding, I didn't say the Bills dominated.   None of that.   I just said the game was outstanding.  Every game when the Bills come from behind to win is outstanding, as far as I'm concerned.  

I didn't mean that you were making a case that the Bills are an outstanding team. 

 

To me, what we are seeing is Dick Jauron football. I really think that's Sean McDermott's approach to football. 

 

I think the Texans game, the Titans game, is his blueprint for winning in the NFL. 

 

You're watching these games where QBs have 396 yards and 4 TDs and that's never going to be McDermott. I think he wants 17-13 with a lot of punting. Maybe if Allen can deliver a few more clutch throws and not turn it over at all, then he can be viable. 

 

What if the Bills went totally against the grain, doubled down and tried to load the defense this offseason? Of course add a running back, a guard, and a few WRs. But really went hard for a DE, another LB, another CB? 

 

What if they really could build a sustainable defense? That's one to help Allen I guess. Keep opposing offenses down to 15 ppg. 

 

But we've seen with the Ravens, Bucs, Seattle, Denver, Jags that you can usually only squeeze 1-2 years of that level out of a defense before guys get nicked up or leave in FA. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I didn't mean that you were making a case that the Bills are an outstanding team. 

 

To me, what we are seeing is Dick Jauron football. I really think that's Sean McDermott's approach to football. 

 

I think the Texans game, the Titans game, is his blueprint for winning in the NFL. 

 

You're watching these games where QBs have 396 yards and 4 TDs and that's never going to be McDermott. I think he wants 17-13 with a lot of punting. Maybe if Allen can deliver a few more clutch throws and not turn it over at all, then he can be viable. 

 

What if the Bills went totally against the grain, doubled down and tried to load the defense this offseason? Of course add a running back, a guard, and a few WRs. But really went hard for a DE, another LB, another CB? 

 

What if they really could build a sustainable defense? That's one to help Allen I guess. Keep opposing offenses down to 15 ppg. 

 

But we've seen with the Ravens, Bucs, Seattle, Denver, Jags that you can usually only squeeze 1-2 years of that level out of a defense before guys get nicked up or leave in FA. 

That's interesting.  I think you're right about how long an elite defense lasts. That's why finding an elite QB is so important. He lasts 10 years, keeps you relevant longer. 

 

I'm anxious to see if the Bills front seven can dominate more teams.  I mean, the goal line e stand was really impressive. Is that indicative of how good the defense is?

[GoBills808]

Terrific post- even handed and thoughtful. I won’t say Allen is the guy, yet, but we are seeing the same qualities in him that give me a lot more hope than his statistics might otherwise indicate. 

 

White is a monster. Edmunds is emergent. Most of the important guys on that side of the ball are under 28. There’s a lot to like going forward. 

[Shaw66]

13 hours ago, DBilz2500 said:

What's wrong you ask? Footwork, accuracy, pre-snap reads, to name a few. I was a Division 1 QB and started for 2 years. The jump from HS to college was tremendous and I can't even imagine the jump from college to the NFL 

I appreciate that you played D 1.  That means that you understand a lot of things about playing QB that I don't. 

 

Frankly, I'm not worrying too much about presnap reads.  That's a skill that NFL qbs say isn't learned learned in college, at least not anything like whats necessary in the pros. That's a big part of the jump you're talking about.  Allen certainly has to work on that. Every rookie does.  

 

I see him throw some inaccurate balls.  The high ones to the sideline and several deepened into double coverage are, I think, throwaways, not inaccurate.  The balls that are bad are the short balls that are consistently at the feet of receivers or at least too low.  He absolutely needs to do those better.  But that defect doesn't strike as so big that I'm worried about it.

 

Do you see it differently?

[DBilz2500]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I appreciate that you played D 1.  That means that you understand a lot of things about playing QB that I don't. 

 

Frankly, I'm not worrying too much about presnap reads.  That's a skill that NFL qbs say isn't learned learned in college, at least not anything like whats necessary in the pros. That's a big part of the jump you're talking about.  Allen certainly has to work on that. Every rookie does.  

 

I see him throw some inaccurate balls.  The high ones to the sideline and several deepened into double coverage are, I think, throwaways, not inaccurate.  The balls that are bad are the short balls that are consistently at the feet of receivers or at least too low.  He absolutely needs to do those better.  But that defect doesn't strike as so big that I'm worried about it.

 

Do you see it differently?

The low inaccurate throws are probably a product of him not understanding what happens after the snap in terms of coverage. Right after the snap he thinks he sees a different coverage and then when the defender does something he's not expecting then he starts to get jittery/nervous, throwing off his base and causing the throw to be low. This is fixable but he needs a much better understanding of after snap coverages 

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

The low inaccurate throws are probably a product of him not understanding what happens after the snap in terms of coverage. Right after the snap he thinks he sees a different coverage and then when the defender does something he's not expecting then he starts to get jittery/nervous, throwing off his base and causing the throw to be low. This is fixable but he needs a much better understanding of after snap coverages 

Thanks. That's interesting.  I know the feeling from playing basketball. You're in the process of shooting and you see something distracts you, and somehow your brain's shooting sequence gets disrupted. 

 

I think he has a ton to learn about the game, but that doesn't bother me today.  He will learn it or he won't, and we will find that out in the future.  Is He Peyton or is he Cutler or somewhere in between?  

 

My point is that I don't yet see much that might prevent him from being a success. He looks like he's on his way. 

[iinii]

16 hours ago, Fixxxer said:

Jauron teams were pushovers, teams ran the ball on us at will.  He was a gentleman, though. 

Jauron was a gentleman’s gentleman. 

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks. That's interesting.  I know the feeling from playing basketball. You're in the process of shooting and you see something distracts you, and somehow your brain's shooting sequence gets disrupted. 

 

I think he has a ton to learn about the game, but that doesn't bother me today.  He will learn it or he won't, and we will find that out in the future.  Is He Peyton or is he Cutler or somewhere in between?  

 

My point is that I don't yet see much that might prevent him from being a success. He looks like he's on his way. 

He would have to be an arrogant self absorbed (fill in the blank) to be there n Cutler’s league. 

[DBilz2500]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks. That's interesting.  I know the feeling from playing basketball. You're in the process of shooting and you see something distracts you, and somehow your brain's shooting sequence gets disrupted. 

 

I think he has a ton to learn about the game, but that doesn't bother me today.  He will learn it or he won't, and we will find that out in the future.  Is He Peyton or is he Cutler or somewhere in between?  

 

My point is that I don't yet see much that might prevent him from being a success. He looks like he's on his way. 

Yea a lot of the QB position truly is about what you have between the ears. Our college coaches were honestly not very concerned with how often we hit the gym and ran wind sprints but rather how well we understood defenses and could make split second decisions after the snap. It's a very very hard thing to learn to throw to a "spot" rather than to what you perceive as an open receiver. Your timing in the offense and your understanding of what the defense is doing, all while trying to disguise and trick you, is what makes a QB look accurate and in sync. Some accuracy is natural throwing ability as well but more of it comes from how well you mentally understand the game. 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, DBilz2500 said:

Yea a lot of the QB position truly is about what you have between the ears. Our college coaches were honestly not very concerned with how often we hit the gym and ran wind sprints but rather how well we understood defenses and could make split second decisions after the snap. It's a very very hard thing to learn to throw to a "spot" rather than to what you perceive as an open receiver. Your timing in the offense and your understanding of what the defense is doing, all while trying to disguise and trick you, is what makes a QB look accurate and in sync. Some accuracy is natural throwing ability as well but more of it comes from how well you mentally understand the game. 

And that's the biggest reason I'm disappointed about his injury.  He needs time on the field.  He has a lot to learn.