Allen not showing progress

[Success]

The anti-Allen crowd really has a proclivity for hyperbole.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I wouldn’t even be upset if this kid was making dumb decisions and going through a learning curve in the nfl. I wouldn’t mind if the reason our offense was struggling was because of rookie mistakes. This kid sucks at throwing the ball near the players on his own team. You aren’t going to learn that. He is not good at passing footballs. What are we learning? It’s just insane to me that people think this has been anything except terrible. Allen should have been redshirted for the entire season. The guy is nowhere near ready to play mentally and physically he has shown nothing to be excited about. People just want him to be good so they ignore what’s right infront of their eyes...the kid sucks right now. It really is that simple.

 

Totally agree.

 

We're averaging 123 yards passing per game because our QB is completely lost out there.

 

He's a big kid with a canon arm who has no idea how to play QB in a structured system. He's not learning anything on the field and appears to be developing bad habits in the pocket. He's running when there's no pressure and doesn't appear to make any effort in going through his reads. All he's doing is looking for his #1 read, and if it's not there he's immediately looking to run.

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I wouldn’t even be upset if this kid was making dumb decisions and going through a learning curve in the nfl. I wouldn’t mind if the reason our offense was struggling was because of rookie mistakes. This kid sucks at throwing the ball near the players on his own team. You aren’t going to learn that. He is not good at passing footballs. What are we learning? It’s just insane to me that people think this has been anything except terrible. Allen should have been redshirted for the entire season. The guy is nowhere near ready to play mentally and physically he has shown nothing to be excited about. People just want him to be good so they ignore what’s right infront of their eyes...the kid sucks right now. It really is that simple.

What are you watching?  I saw maybe 1 or 2 inaccurate passes today.  Now, if you want to say he isn’t seeing the field, ok fine.  The “he is inaccurate” mantra is off in my opinion.

[DisplacedBillsFan]

Even if he starts to put it together, you still take another QB in the draft next year. I vote David Blough from Purdue.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Statistics without context are garbage.  The basis of statistics is having a sound sample of data.   Mixing data from incomparable data sets is never right.

 

The models provided plenty of context, like strength of opponent, strength of his supporting cast, ball placement, etc. 

 

All of the advanced analytic models gave Allen hardly any chance of being successful. 

[TheElectricCompany]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

Statistics without context are garbage.  The basis of statistics is having a sound sample of data.   Mixing data from incomparable data sets is never right.

 

There have been many attempts to explain away Josh Allen's poor NCAA stats. They all fall short.

There is a statistical reason to take a guy like Baker #1, or to pick someone like Russel Wilson late, but there was never a statistical reason to pick Josh. 

He was always a "tools" guy. 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Success said:

The anti-Allen crowd really has a proclivity for hyperbole.

 

I am sure there are some but I dont think there are many in the anti-Allen crowd.  I do see a lot of people commenting on what they see which is fair if you ask me.

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

The models provided plenty of context, like strength of opponent, strength of his supporting cast, ball placement, etc. 

 

All of the advanced analytic models gave Allen hardly any chance of being successful. 

Never mind.  It isn’t baseball where a pitcher has no pressure.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, cgg716 said:

30 years on this planet. I’ve seen 8 all time great transcendent QB

Aikman

Young

Favre

Roelisthberger

Manning

Brady

Brees

Rodgers

 

Half those guys struggled plenty around poor teams early, judgements off of that are why Brees became a Saint. You need time and teamattes, Wait until Allen gets those things 

 

Reality is that over the past 20 years over 50% of QBs picked in round 1 have been busts, and when you take away the elite prospects who went #1 overall, that number spikes to over 70%. 

 

It's really hard to find a good QB. 

[Success]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

The models provided plenty of context, like strength of opponent, strength of his supporting cast, ball placement, etc. 

 

All of the advanced analytic models gave Allen hardly any chance of being successful. 

Any links?

[Agent 91]

3 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Can we please ban anyone who states we need to start Anderson. He’s worse than Allen, so

let the kid develop 

Maybe he meant while Allen is injured? I hope

[Success]

1 minute ago, mattynh said:

 

I am sure there are some but I dont think there are many in the anti-Allen crowd.  I do see a lot of people commenting on what they see which is fair if you ask me.

It’s not really fair if it’s fabricated.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What are you watching?  I saw maybe 1 or 2 inaccurate passes today.  Now, if you want to say he isn’t seeing the field, ok fine.  The “he is inaccurate” mantra is off in my opinion.

Agree on the accuracy and the only way for him to speed up

progressions is by seeing more and more. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What are you watching?  I saw maybe 1 or 2 inaccurate passes today.  Now, if you want to say he isn’t seeing the field, ok fine.  The “he is inaccurate” mantra is off in my opinion.

I don’t think it even begins to describe it. The first pass of the day was as bad of a ball as you can see thrown. Even the catches are balls where guys have to pick them off the turf. There are less good throws then bad every single game with Allen. He puts touch on balls that don’t need touch and lasers balls that are within 5 yds. The kid hasn’t even been inbounds on a deep ball. His apparent speciality. We are one of the worst passing offenses I have ever seen. 3 times this year Allen’s yards per carry has been higher then his ypa. What am I watching? The game. How can anyone not see this? He is the tall kid, #17. The one throwing balls off the ground and behind people.

[Roundybout]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I don’t think it even begins to describe it. The first pass of the day was as bad of a ball as you can see thrown. Even the catches are balls where guys have to pick them off the turf. There are less good throws then bad every single game with Allen. He puts touch on balls that don’t need touch and lasers balls that are within 5 yds. The kid hasn’t even been inbounds on a deep ball. His apparent speciality. We are one of the worst passing offenses I have ever seen. 3 times this year Allen’s yards per carry has been higher then his ypa. What am I watching? The game. How can anyone not see this? He is the tall kid, #17. The one throwing balls off the ground and behind people.

 

You're a good poster, but damn if you don't get on a tear. You're waaaaaay exaggerating things. He had one truly bad pass today. That's an improvement there. He needs to be better, but he isn't as bad as you think he is. 

[Kelly the Dog]

9 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I wouldn’t even be upset if this kid was making dumb decisions and going through a learning curve in the nfl. I wouldn’t mind if the reason our offense was struggling was because of rookie mistakes. This kid sucks at throwing the ball near the players on his own team. You aren’t going to learn that. He is not good at passing footballs. What are we learning? It’s just insane to me that people think this has been anything except terrible. Allen should have been redshirted for the entire season. The guy is nowhere near ready to play mentally and physically he has shown nothing to be excited about. People just want him to be good so they ignore what’s right infront of their eyes...the kid sucks right now. It really is that simple.

I'm just going off on top of my head. He was 10-17 or maybe 19? He threw one horrible pass to Clay and two bullets right to Clay. He threw two long passes to Benjamin right on the money one of which was called back. He threw a 10-15 yard pass to Zay that was dropped. He threw a nice swing pass to Shady on the run and and a WR screen on the money. He threw a bomb to Benjamin that was double covered and smart to be too long. He rolled out and threw a tremendously accurate pass against the grain to Shady. He threw a short roll out that wasn't great but in range and caught by Clay on the sidelines. He threw a ball away on the sidelines toward KB that had no chance because he wasn't open at all. Where are all these wildly inaccurate passes outside of the first play?

[CincyBillsFan]

Some random thoughts on Allen as I read this thread:

 

*  Didn't Arizona make a big push to move up and take Allen over Rosen? 

 

*  The notion that Allen should have dropped into the 3rd or 4th round seems crazy to me. 

 

*  The Bills had a shot at two of the top 4 QB's unless you think we should have moved up ahead of the Jets to grab Darnold (which would have cost us a ton).  And I've yet to see anything that makes me think Rosen would have been a better pick then Allen.  Sure Rosen is ahead of Allen but his upside is way below Allen's.

 

*  Like others have said, it would have been ideal for Allen to sit at least half the season.  But that's water under the bridge now.  Allen became the starter in week 2 and must now take his lumps and remain the starter for better or worse.  To bench him for ANY reason other then injury would set his development back. 

 

*  I keep hearing folks talk about all these other QB's throwing for big yardage while the Bills & Allen struggle to top 100 yards.  And I find this frustrating to.  But what I see in these other games are RB's, TE's and WR's getting open all over the field.  And I don't need a 360 degree review of every pass play to see how open they are.  It's right there on my sort of big screen TV and you just don't see that when watching a Bills game.  Sure, Allen owns some of this but with the exception of Shady how many of our skill players would see the field on almost any other NFL team?  

 

 

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

Any links?

 

QBASE has a very high rate of predicting failure for guys like Allen. Guys with negative scores like him simply are never successful. 

 

Contextualized Quarterbacking was another good one. Super detailed, and took into account each pass a QB threw and where it was placed to analyze accuracy among other things.

 

There were others but I'll have to look around. 

[Agent 91]

2 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Allen was better than Watson today. Watson has Hopkins and Fuller, was worse against the rush, threw two horrible INTs, fumbled twice, was sacked six times, didn't feel the rush worse than Josh, and his only TD was a fabulous catch. 

I have to disagree. I take into account possibly a worse o line against a better pass rush. I honestly think we bring the heat better than they do. I didnt think he was worse against the rush either. Neither had their best day but I did think he was decent today

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

This is going to be EJ all over again where people are just going to “benefit of the doubt” the guy on every single thing. Keep bringing up how Peyton Manning was rough in his rookie year....Well plenty of bad QBs were bad in year 1 too. Not every lost qb is going to turn into Aikman and Manning. It’s week 6. Make a few throws here at some point to give people reasons to think it can be better. I’m all for hoping it turns around but at some point I need to see some throws. I have seen plenty of throws to worry about. Let’s see a few good ones