Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

If my goal is to get Trump reelected then i want Bernie or Biden- they have long track records with some problems. The one who scares me is actually Tulsi Gabbard- young pretty i think three versions of minorities without a track record who is so far pretty reasonable. People will vote simply for woman and vote against trump.

She seems very reasonable and rational. That means she is a no-go this cycle. ?‍♂️

[row_33]

if the economy continues to go well Trump in a landslide

 

or he avoids completely cratering to the point where he is rebuffed by all the voters....

 

[BeginnersMind]

2 minutes ago, row_33 said:

if the economy continues to go well Trump in a landslide

 

or he avoids completely cratering to the point where he is rebuffed by all the voters....

 

 

This is the big win for him. What he’s on the verge of doing with China is simply awesome. It’s not getting as much coverage as it should but it’s bigger than any of the rest of what he’s been up to and it will have longer term positive effects on the economy than anything an American president has done since NAFTA. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

She seems very reasonable and rational. That means she is a no-go this cycle. ?‍♂️

I think Tulsi and Andrew Yang are the most viable candidates to stand a chance against Trump, though as has been mentioned it's a long shot if the economy continues. But neither is really getting any support from the party. They'd rather have people who back the Green New Deal, or Open Borders, or Healthcare for All, or Wipe out student debt, or Eliminate ICE, or repeal the 2nd Amendment. It almost feels like a legitimate 3rd party is going to form from the results of 2020.

[IDBillzFan]

3 hours ago, BeginnersMind said:

Bernie, Biden, and the guy who’s stolen all the wannabe contenders Mayor Pete...seem to be the real contenders at the moment. 

 

Mayor Pete does himself no favors going after Pence. In spite of the way the left lies to sue Christians into a stereotype, genuine Christians have open arms for homosexuals. 

 

Yeah, I get it. The Bible is strict about gay marriage, but other than the hard-core evangelists who take the word of God out of context or are considered legalistic, Christians would vote for a homosexual. And trying to rile the LGBTQ base by going after Pence, a man who has always said nice things about Pete, is bad advice.

 

And by LGBTQ, I don't mean this...

 

[BeginnersMind]

12 minutes ago, LABillzFan said:

 

Mayor Pete does himself no favors going after Pence. In spite of the way the left lies to sue Christians into a stereotype, genuine Christians have open arms for homosexuals. 

 

Yeah, I get it. The Bible is strict about gay marriage, but other than the hard-core evangelists who take the word of God out of context or are considered legalistic, Christians would vote for a homosexual. And trying to rile the LGBTQ base by going after Pence, a man who has always said nice things about Pete, is bad advice.

 

And by LGBTQ, I don't mean this...

 

Moving the bases of either party isn't winning this election. Winning the middle wins this election. 

 

Trump will likely lose PA this time around because they did away with their gerrymandered goofiness. If you make Michigan and Wisconsin battleground states and everything else is the same as 2016, the map looks like this:

 

 

The Rs could maybe flip VA on that map (or I guess possibly retain PA, though that's a lot less likely and the national R leadership is in Harrisburg today because they are so alarmed by what they are forecasting for PA), while the Ds have a lot more opportunity to flip states. The map for Trump requires a repeat. The map for Ds has way more options. But that's why Bernie is such a crap candidate for them. He cannot, in my estimation, flip any of AZ, FL, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA. Biden, however could, and he needs to only flip only a couple of them, or the right one (OH or FL). 

[B-Man]

[row_33]

14 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

they have thrown their ring into the hat....

 

[DC Tom]

1 hour ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Moving the bases of either party isn't winning this election. Winning the middle wins this election. 

 

Trump will likely lose PA this time around because they did away with their gerrymandered goofiness. If you make Michigan and Wisconsin battleground states and everything else is the same as 2016, the map looks like this:

 

 

The Rs could maybe flip VA on that map (or I guess possibly retain PA, though that's a lot less likely and the national R leadership is in Harrisburg today because they are so alarmed by what they are forecasting for PA), while the Ds have a lot more opportunity to flip states. The map for Trump requires a repeat. The map for Ds has way more options. But that's why Bernie is such a crap candidate for them. He cannot, in my estimation, flip any of AZ, FL, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA. Biden, however could, and he needs to only flip only a couple of them, or the right one (OH or FL). 

 

Or getting enough states to commit to allocating their electoral votes according to the results in other states.  

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Moving the bases of either party isn't winning this election. Winning the middle wins this election. 

 

Trump will likely lose PA this time around because they did away with their gerrymandered goofiness. If you make Michigan and Wisconsin battleground states and everything else is the same as 2016, the map looks like this:

 

 

The Rs could maybe flip VA on that map (or I guess possibly retain PA, though that's a lot less likely and the national R leadership is in Harrisburg today because they are so alarmed by what they are forecasting for PA), while the Ds have a lot more opportunity to flip states. The map for Trump requires a repeat. The map for Ds has way more options. But that's why Bernie is such a crap candidate for them. He cannot, in my estimation, flip any of AZ, FL, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA. Biden, however could, and he needs to only flip only a couple of them, or the right one (OH or FL). 

Not so sure how I understand the bolded in blue above. Gerrymandering affects the different congressional districts, not the statewide vote. The presidential vote is done by amount of votes per state. What might make PA permanently Republican would be to monitor the elections in and around your city of Philadelphia.

[BeginnersMind]

7 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

Or getting enough states to commit to allocating their electoral votes according to the results in other states.  

 

Good point there. I don’t know if that National Popular vote allocation agreement will be in place by 2020. But it’s close though with 189 electoral vote states committed and 72 more vote states where it’s been passed in one chamber of their legislative body—and though it’s dominated by blue states, OK and AZ are almost there and would flip the election if the totals favor the Dem candidate again. 

 

 

 

[BeginnersMind]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Not so sure how I understand the bolded in blue above. Gerrymandering affects the different congressional districts, not the statewide vote. The presidential vote is done by amount of votes per state. What might make PA permanently Republican would be to monitor the elections in and around your city of Philadelphia.

 

The Ds are taking over the state of PA and have flipped a lot of districts following the gerrymander fix. They are controlling the campaigns, and getting themselves out there leading dialogues. The flipping happens at the state level and flows upwards--so fixing the gerrymandering has turned PA a lot more blue. 

 

Could PA be a blue state at every level and still vote for Trump? Yes--but team Trump is in PA today because it's freaking out about what's happened to PA since the last cycle. Trump desperately needs to hold on to the slim margin he got in 2016. Again, his map to 270 requires a repeat. The Dems have more ways to win (and Bernie can screw it up for sure!). 

[DC Tom]

2 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Good point there. I don’t know if that National Popular vote allocation agreement will be in place by 2020. But it’s close though with 189 electoral vote states committed and 72 more vote states where it’s been passed in one chamber of their legislative body—and though it’s dominated by blue states, OK and AZ are almost there and would flip the election if the totals favor the Dem candidate again. 

 

 

 

 

You can't completely ignore the possibility that the Democrats want to lose in 2020...but "win the popular vote," to encourage states to adopt the National Popular Vote agreement so that they completely disenfranchise red states in 2024 and onwards.

 

Were I a DNC strategist, that's exactly what I'd be advocating - lose the race with a popular majority, and double-down on the "undermining democracy" and "fascist government" rhetoric to permanently eliminate any possibility of Republicans ever taking the presidency again.

[BeginnersMind]

9 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

You can't completely ignore the possibility that the Democrats want to lose in 2020...but "win the popular vote," to encourage states to adopt the National Popular Vote agreement so that they completely disenfranchise red states in 2024 and onwards.

 

Were I a DNC strategist, that's exactly what I'd be advocating - lose the race with a popular majority, and double-down on the "undermining democracy" and "fascist government" rhetoric to permanently eliminate any possibility of Republicans ever taking the presidency again.

 

Unverified but it sounds true: The National Popular Vote site says that the two candidates in 2016 only campaigned in 16 states as it was. I’m surprised it was so many. I bet Trump had many more than Hillary. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by BeginnersMind

[DC Tom]

17 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Unverified but it sounds true: The National Popular Vote site says that the two candidates in 2016 only campaigned in 16 states as it was. I’m surprised it was so many. I bet Trump had many more than Hillary. 

 

It's bull####.  Between them, I count about 20 in the last six weeks alone.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-10-weeks-of-2016-campaign-stops-in-one-handy-gif/

 

The Boston Globe has a better tally, but I'm not paying them to see it.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

44 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

The Ds are taking over the state of PA and have flipped a lot of districts following the gerrymander fix. They are controlling the campaigns, and getting themselves out there leading dialogues. The flipping happens at the state level and flows upwards--so fixing the gerrymandering has turned PA a lot more blue. 

 

Could PA be a blue state at every level and still vote for Trump? Yes--but team Trump is in PA today because it's freaking out about what's happened to PA since the last cycle. Trump desperately needs to hold on to the slim margin he got in 2016. Again, his map to 270 requires a repeat. The Dems have more ways to win (and Bernie can screw it up for sure!). 

 

Yeah a Democratic legislature and a Democrat-dominated supreme court "degerrymandered" meaning they designed districts for Democratic Party needs. Can't have a repeat of 2016. No sir.

 

Pennsylvania is more crooked than New Jersey at this point. Let's be clear:

They didn't "take over" anything. They designed districts to increase the influence of Philthadelphia and Schittsburgh while simultaneously diluting the strength of Republican-held areas with urban-center people.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Joe in Winslow

[Tiberius]

Yes! 

 

 

The Post reports:

The Census found that 36 percent of citizens ages 18-29 reported voting in last year’s midterm elections, jumping 16 percentage points since 2014 (when turnout was 20 percent) and easily surpassing any midterm election since the 1980s. Turnout also increased sharply among adults ages 30-44, rising from 36 percent in 2014 to 49 percent in 2018. While turnout among younger adults still lags that of their elders, last year’s election marked a clear break from the past two decades of anemic turnout among the youngest citizens

[B-Man]

Too bad the "terminally blinders" posters can't remember back a few years.....................

 

Bill Clinton getting his ass handed to him in the first off-year election.................and still winning reelection

 

The same with Barack Obama.

 

Trump will win also.

 

 

.

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Shocking no one...  
 

 

[B-Man]

AND THEN THERE WERE 21: Here’s the State of the 2020 Democratic Primary.