How often do "project" quarterbacks work out?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Do project quarterbacks work out? I mean you can add any QB drafted after the 3rd round with moderate-great success or QBs from small schools/run oriented college offenses to this list. That would take all night. Are we just talking about top 10 guys?

 

Ryan Tannehill was drafted I think at 12 and he was a converted wide receiver. That's as raw as you can get. Cam Newton was another highly rated guy and a bit of a project. 

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Dr.Sack]

Better question what % of 1st round draft picks that are drafted in the top 10 amount to viable starters. I’d say 1 in 3. The numbers certainly drop from there...

[ColoradoBills]

23 hours ago, Klaista2k said:

How often do these young quarterbacks that  are considered "projects" actually pan out?

 

Do they usually bust or is there a lot of examples of guys that have actually worked out?

 

 

 

 

Has anyone satisfactorily answered your questions?

[Logic]

Still waiting on Chris66 to wade back into the ****-pot he stirred up and talk fondly about his memories of BBMB.

[Bangarang]

Can we first define what a project QB is? Isn’t it fair to say 99.99% of QBs drafted are projects in one way or another?

Edited October 11, 2018 by Bangarang

[Trogdor]

On 10/9/2018 at 8:04 PM, LeGOATski said:

I only know about Bills players post 1990 and every one except Kelly was a project, so....100% bust.

 

Your answer is 100% bust.

Even Kelly was a project. He had time to develop in another league and still sucked when he came here. The scheme probably hid a lot of his weaknesses.

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Do project quarterbacks work out? I mean you can add any QB drafted after the 3rd round with moderate-great success or QBs from small schools/run oriented college offenses to this list. That would take all night. Are we just talking about top 10 guys?

 

Ryan Tannehill was drafted I think at 12 and he was a converted wide receiver. That's as raw as you can get. Cam Newton was another highly rated guy and a bit of a project. 

 

Wasn't he a QB converted to WR and then converted back? I was more worried about Moore when they played the Bills.

[C.Biscuit97]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Players that were considered at the number 1 pick that get taken at 7 are not reaches....period

Come on John.  This happens all the time.  The nfl loves tall guys with big arms.  Logan Thomas was talked about as a a 1st round pick before his last year in college.  Jake locker got talked about going 1st overall and was like a 50% passer.  Blaine Gabbert was talked about a 1st overall pick and had 16 tds in a spread offense his last year in college.  These guys get hyped up because of being tall and having good arms.

 

yes, most college qbs won’t make it in the nfl.  The problem is some guys have a way higher bust rate than others and since I’m consistent, it’s what I said about Allen before he was on the Bills.  If fans were more honest, we would be laughing at Allen if the Jets took him.  

 

I would love for him to be the exception to the rule. But based on every offensive personnel and the complete lack of plan this regime has with him, I’m not super optimistic. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

18 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Even Kelly was a project. He had time to develop in another league and still sucked when he came here. The scheme probably hid a lot of his weaknesses.

Wasn't he a QB converted to WR and then converted back? I was more worried about Moore when they played the Bills.

 

I'm actually arguing w/ another guy in a different thread about how we should of grabbed Moore over Anderson precisely because of all those beatings he threw the Bills. Tannehill worries me about as much as a common cold, Brady is Ebola.

 

EDIT: You're right. I never knew Tanny started out as a quarterback. I always thought he was converted.

Edited October 11, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[C.Biscuit97]

18 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Can we first define what a project QB is? Isn’t it fair to say 99.99% of QBs drafted are projects in one way or another?

Lack of production in college but have a lot of physical tools.  Think a guy like Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, etc.  

 

i

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Lack of production in college but have a lot of physical tools.  Think a guy like Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, etc.  

 

i

 

Guys with TONS of production in college can also be project QB's in my opinion. Colt Brennan comes to mind.

 

What about QB's that come from the projects. Do they count as project QBs?

Edited October 11, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

Guys with TONS of production in college can also be projects QB's in my opinion. Colt Brennan comes to mind.

Interesting point.  But I think the problem with guys like Brennan is they lacked physical skills and most likely peaked in college.  It’s why I hated Manziel.  He simply didn’t have the physical skills.  

 

Imo, super college production without physical skills guarantees nothing.  Good production plus physical skills equals a high draft pick. And lack of production plus physical skills equals prospect qb, which rarely succeed on the next level.

5 hours ago, Luka said:

The bigger question here is, how often do fans knee jerk over 4 games and then look like fools a couple years down the road? I know Rams fans know what I'm talking about.

Of course this can happen and I think every Bills fans who doubts Allen would be very happy about this.  I’d also point out that Goff had like 50 tds in a power 5 conference and received possibly the best offensive coach in the nfl.  Allen wasn’t dominatin the MWC and had Brian Daboll, who has a terrible OC record in the nfl.

 

and the counter to your point is EJ Manuel after his first 4 games, which are completely superior to Allen.  And I defended EJ!  But I pray you are right.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting point.  But I think the problem with guys like Brennan is they lacked physical skills and most likely peaked in college.  It’s why I hated Manziel.  He simply didn’t have the physical skills.  

 

Imo, super college production without physical skills guarantees nothing.  Good production plus physical skills equals a high draft pick. And lack of production plus physical skills equals prospect qb, which rarely succeed on the next level.

 

What the heck happened w/ Allen? He fits the "lack of production + physical skills" mold and was still unanimously viewed as a top 5 pick unlike a ton of QB's cut from the same cloth and yet they were all graded much lower. Bad pocket presence in college, accuracy was not good. Of course I support him 100% , but I've always wondered what made him any different than EJ Manuel in the eyes of the experts. 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Do project quarterbacks work out? I mean you can add any QB drafted after the 3rd round with moderate-great success or QBs from small schools/run oriented college offenses to this list. That would take all night. Are we just talking about top 10 guys?

 

Ryan Tannehill was drafted I think at 12 and he was a converted wide receiver. That's as raw as you can get. Cam Newton was another highly rated guy and a bit of a project. 

 

Cam Newton won a JUCO national championship, a heisman in the Sec, and a national championship.  There were “experts” like Mayock who had Blaine Gabbert ranked over him but it looks completely stupid looking back.  He has an amazing resume to go with he physical skills.

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

What the heck happened w/ Allen? He fits the "lack of production + physical skills" mold and was still unanimously viewed as a top 5 pick unlike a ton of QB's cut from the same cloth and yet they were all graded much lower. Bad pocket presence in college, accuracy was not good. Of course I support him 100% , but I've always wondered what made him any different than EJ Manuel in the eyes of the experts. 

Good thoughts.  If you look back at the scouting reports/ production/ combine numbers on Bortles and Manuel, they look exactly the same.  Yet one was a top 5 pick and one was a huge reach.  

 

I think guys guys get hype because they look like they should be good.  Hackenberg has no business being a 2nd round pick.  He sucked his last 2 years in college.  People tried to blame His coach, yet they became a powerhouse after he left.  I’ve seen a lot of talk about how bad Wyoming was.  They had a top 10 scoring defense.  If you are an elite prospect, you should have periods of dominating.  Romo and Jimmy G went to the same school and they dominated. Wentz won titles.  Matt Ryan made Boston College a good program.  

 

Allen has everything you want.  But the question is can he consistently get there?  That’s what separates the good ones to the fringe nfl qbs.

[Bangarang]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Lack of production in college but have a lot of physical tools.  Think a guy like Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Hackenberg, etc.  

 

i

 

Sounds like a nice way of saying they’re just physical specimens that suck at actually playing quarterback.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Cam Newton won a JUCO national championship, a heisman in the Sec, and a national championship.  There were “experts” like Mayock who had Blaine Gabbert ranked over him but it looks completely stupid looking back.  He has an amazing resume to go with he physical skills.

 

The offense alone that Cam played at Auburn was a one read, run first type that made him a project though. Would he be able to translate to pro style? His measurables and mechanics were always top notch and never questioned from what I can remember. Cam has been a winner everywhere

Edited October 11, 2018 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

Sounds like a nice way of saying they’re just physical specimens that suck at actually playing quarterback.

I think the main problem is they aren’t consistent.  They can threw the most amazing pass one play and then bounce a 5 yard pass the next play.  What makes Brees, Rodgers, and Brady so great is they are so consistent.

 

imo, Mahomes would have been ok last year as a rookie because KC has a good offense and Reid.  But he is thriving this year because he got to learn from Smith/ Reid and work on his mechanics for a year.  If Josh Allen had Reid and had to sit for a year, I’d feel much better about his prospects.  As much as I didn’t like the pick, I feel we could have put him in a better position to succeed.  This is like the EJ plan all over again, which is so frustrating.  Consistency and confidence make great qbs and we could be killing that with him.

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

The offense alone that Cam played at Auburn was a one read, run first type that made him a project though. Would he be able to translate to pro style? His measurables and mechanics were always top notch and never questioned from what I can remember. Cam has been a winner everywhere

That’s fair.  I just remember watching him and thinking I was seeing a nfl star.  He was like Vince Young but he didn’t throw like a girl.

 

and of course, Newton came in and set passing records as a rookie.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think the main problem is they aren’t consistent.  They can threw the most amazing pass one play and then bounce a 5 yard pass the next play.  What makes Brees, Rodgers, and Brady so great is they are so consistent.

 

imo, Mahomes would have been ok last year as a rookie because KC has a good offense and Reid.  But he is thriving this year because he got to learn from Smith/ Reid and work on his mechanics for a year.  If Josh Allen had Reid and had to sit for a year, I’d feel much better about his prospects.  As much as I didn’t like the pick, I feel we could have put him in a better position to succeed.  This is like the EJ plan all over again, which is so frustrating.  Consistency and confidence make great qbs and we could be killing that with him.

 

I agree with the point about consistency and also agree that we are not putting Allen in a position to be successful. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Bangarang

[DuckyBoys]

EJ was mentally weak  If you watched FSU games you would have seen warning signs.  Once Marrone lost faith in him he just lost even more confidence and played even worse.  I dont think Allen is cut from the same cloth but we'll. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

I agree with the point about consistency and also agree that we are not putting Allen in a position to be successful. 

Yeah, it sucks.  I didn’t want Allen but I thought they were not going to force him on the field.  But they are doing that and it’s sucks to watch.  

Just now, DuckyBoys said:

EJ was mentally weak  If you watched FSU games you would have seen warning signs.  Once Marrone lost faith in him he just lost even more confidence and played even worse.  I dont think Allen is cut from the same cloth but we'll. 

EJ went through his last year in college with his mom battling cancer.  I get your point but Allen didn’t look that confident in the Titans or Packers games.  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

You kidding me? 

 

Id take Russell Wilson and dump Allen right now. 

Haha, I didn’t see this post.  Did he say that Wilson and Newton weren’t worth their money? ?. Are people serious with this stuff?

 

and I know he gets ? on but as Bills fans, we would kill to have Allen have Dalton’s career.  It’s hilarious how people love putting him down when he has made the playoffs every year of his career but two years.  I’d be thrilled if Allen has a career like Dalton.