How often do "project" quarterbacks work out?

[Alphadawg7]

36 minutes ago, Klaista2k said:

How often do these young quarterbacks that  are considered "projects" actually pan out?

 

Do they usually bust or is there a lot of examples of guys that have actually worked out?

 

 

 

 

I would argue that ALL QB's coming out of college are "projects".  There are some that are bigger projects because they may have more to work on, but just because you are a top tier prospect does not mean you are not a project.  The success rate of all players of all grades or all positions is always less than 50%.  They are all projects, but media and "gurus" like to over use words, so things like "project" is now reserved to guys who people are less certain about.  But make no mistake, every QB and every player for that matter taken in any draft at any slot is a "project".  There is a LOT they need to learn, master, and get better at to succeed in the NFL long term.  

[Augie]

How often do the “sure fire” prospects pan out? 

 

It’s a crap shoot. If the FO missed on Allen, but everything else is headed in the right direction, I’d give them another shot at QB. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

The greatest project QB success story in history is Rich Gannon.   Virtually every other QB who won a super bowl AND and a long career as a starter, was a very good QB by year 2, and definitely by year 3. 


I

[Rochesterfan]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

This is not true.  Jared Goff and Wentz "worked out" year 2.  Derek Carr "worked out" year 2.  Russell Wilson "worked out" year 1.  

 

 

We may know, after year 2 - some guys like Brees showed flashes, but did not bloom until later.  Mitch Turbisky has shown flashes here in year two, but it may take him another year to actually show whether it will be a success.

 

Some people are anointing Mahomes already with only a quarter of season 2 in the books just like they did with Jimmy Grappalo at the end of last year and Watson after his start last year.  The jury is still out on all 3 of these guys until they do it longer.

 

There is already talk in LA about drafting a QB to replace Goff because they feel it is the best way to keep talent and get draft picks back.  If they decide to move on after next year to save cap space is he a success?

 

 

[PlayoffsPlease]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He's asking for examples of how often "project" QB pan out, and whether they usually bust out or are there examples that work out.

So he's obviously asking a general question that goes beyond Josh Allen.

 

Remembering Threads Past and the endless Sturm und Drang expended debating who was, or who wasn't, a "franchise QB" - seemed like much if not most of the debate resolved around different, but unstated, definitions of "franchise QB"

 

Seems like it would help a lot to understand what is meant by "project QB"

I think the image most people have in their minds for what is meant by project QB is someone with all of the physical skills necessary and mental acuity necessary to be an NFL QB, but who is also clearly understood not to be ready to start in the NFL due to the level of his college experience or issues with mechanics. 

[Mat68]

Get the ground game going and play defense.  Allen doesnt need to throw it 40 times a game right now.  Get him experiance.  Anderson signing imo will help with the little things of the position.  By years end I think Allen will silence most doubters.

[BringBackOrton]

3 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

We may know, after year 2 - some guys like Brees showed flashes, but did not bloom until later.  Mitch Turbisky has shown flashes here in year two, but it may take him another year to actually show whether it will be a success.

 

Some people are anointing Mahomes already with only a quarter of season 2 in the books just like they did with Jimmy Grappalo at the end of last year and Watson after his start last year.  The jury is still out on all 3 of these guys until they do it longer.

 

There is already talk in LA about drafting a QB to replace Goff because they feel it is the best way to keep talent and get draft picks back.  If they decide to move on after next year to save cap space is he a success?

 

 

???????

 

What.

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Josh Allen, and QBs like Josh Allen.

 

Reaches at the draft.

 

I think that's what he's getting at.

 

 

 

Guys taken in the top 10 tend to work out about 1 in 3 times, I'd say. 

 

Guys taken in the top 10 are not considered projects by their teams.   A project is someone with a low probability of success, taken late in the first or later.   Projects have aspects of their game that need serious work in order for them to succeed.  

 

Darnold, Mayfield, Allen and Rosen are not projects.   They may be disappointments, but they aren't projects.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

I think the image most people have in their minds for what is meant by project QB is someone with all of the physical skills necessary and mental acuity necessary to be an NFL QB, but who is also clearly understood not to be ready to start in the NFL due to the level of his college experience or issues with mechanics. 

 

Well, that's a start, but it opens a few questions:

1) What is meant by 'mental acuity'?  Wonderlic score?  Demonstrated ability to read defenses?  What?

2) What is meant by 'level of his college experience'?  Football conference played in?  Type of offense?

3) Are we talking 1st round picks who meet these criteria?  Top of first round?  First 2 rounds?  What?

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Guys taken in the top 10 tend to work out about 1 in 3 times, I'd say.

 

Closer to 50%, but that hides a thing.   Overwhelmingly QB drafted in the top-10 are drafted in the top 5 picks - 26 between 1996-2016 vs  5 in picks 6-10.

 

39 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Josh Allen, and QBs like Josh Allen.

Reaches at the draft.

I think that's what he's getting at.

 

Just begs the question, what defines a "reach at the draft"?  He says so?  You say so?  PFF says so?

[DuckyBoys]

8 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Most QBs who end up near the top of the heap, are very good by their second year. 

Think you guys need to look further back than the last year or two.  QBs coming in and playing well right away is not the historical norm.  More important is do they continue to get better from year 1 to 2 to 3.   Most qbs are not ready to start and win in year 1.  Mahomes might end up being the best ever or he might regress.  Lot of rookies recent years looked good than have gone backwards.  We just played one  Marriota looked really good but has gone backwards the last two seasons.  Prescott going backwards.   Trubisky's first four starts look very similar to Allens  Almost identical to be honest

[PlayoffsPlease]

Just now, DuckyBoys said:

Think you guys need to look further back than the last year or two.  QBs coming in and playing well right away is not the historical norm.  More important is do they continue to get better from year 1 to 2 to 3.   Most qbs are not ready to start and win in year 1.  Mahomes might end up being the best ever or he might regress.  Lot of rookies recent years looked good than have gone backwards.  We just played one  Marriota looked really good but has gone backwards the last two seasons.  Prescott going backwards.   Trubisky's first four starts look very similar to Allens  Almost identical to be honest

Its the historical norm for the last 20 years.  Feel free to look it up.  

[zow2]

As I mentioned in another thread, Jake Locker was picked #8 overall in 2011.  He was a project. Really athletic, but the knock on him in college was inaccuracy.  He ultimately failed and retired early.

[ghostwriter]

People were calling Mahomes and Trubisky projects, those are the two most recent examples in recent memory. Now whether any of you thought the contrary, may boost your credit but it doesn't matter, I remember arguing with someone profusely over Mahomes "Texas Tech doesn't produce NFL quarterbacks" "Texas Tech never has QBs drafted in the first round!" "Texas Tech runs a gimmick offense with system QBs!" Oh, yes!!!!! The haters were very real, I remember it clearly. Some of the arguments made against Mahomes are being used against Allen.

[SinceThe70s]

44 minutes ago, Klaista2k said:

How often do these young quarterbacks that  are considered "projects" actually pan out?

 

Do they usually bust or is there a lot of examples of guys that have actually worked out?

 

 

 

 

Answers seem pretty straight forward to me: not very often and they usually bust. Do I get a 100 and a smiley face sticker?

 

Here's two for you:

 

How often do "can't miss" QB prospects actually pan out?

 

Do they usually bust or is there a lot of examples of guys that have actually worked out?

 

 

[BillsPride12]

I'd say a reasonable comparison(and I say reasonable because obviously every situation is unique and going to be a little different) is Brett Favre.  He had some raw athleticism and a cannon of an arm but he wasn't very polished at all coming out of college.  He showed flashes here and there of what he was capable of but he had to really develop his skills before he became a stud.  It took a few years but the biggest thing that sticks out to me was he was working with some great offensive minds and the master himself Andy Reid who is doing wonders with Patrick Mahomes in KC.  Do we have the right guys in place that can maximize Josh Allen's talents?  

[Fadingpain]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Get the ground game going and play defense.  Allen doesnt need to throw it 40 times a game right now.  Get him experiance.  Anderson signing imo will help with the little things of the position.  By years end I think Allen will silence most doubters.

I understand what you mean, but completely sheltering Allen and virtually taking the ball out of his throwing hand, as we did against the Titans, makes zero sense.

 

He needs to play the position fully, and learn/develop if/where/when he can.

 

if Derek Anderson plays a game without Allen being injured, I'll go insane.

 

 

[DuckyBoys]

3 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

People were calling Mahomes and Trubisky projects, those are the two most recent examples in recent memory. Now whether any of you thought the contrary, may boost your credit but it doesn't matter, I remember arguing with someone profusely over Mahomes "Texas Tech doesn't produce NFL quarterbacks" "Texas Tech never has QBs drafted in the first round!" "Texas Tech runs a gimmick offense with system QBs!" Oh, yes!!!!! The haters were very real, I remember it clearly. Some of the arguments made against Mahomes are being used against Allen.

That is true and Trubisky is still a project  from what I have watched  He's had some stinkers along with the 6 td game   Mahomes lets see what things look like after say 24 starts  Not jinxing him, he looks great so far.   If Allen shows improvement from where he is now till week 16 its a success.  Next year he should be even better and so on.  The goat threw for 189 a game and took 41 sacks as a rookie

[ghostwriter]

1 minute ago, DuckyBoys said:

That is true and Trubisky is still a project  from what I have watched  He's had some stinkers along with the 6 td game   Mahomes lets see what things look like after say 24 starts  Not jinxing him, he looks great so far.   If Allen shows improvement from where he is now till week 16 its a success.  Next year he should be even better and so on.  The goat threw for 189 a game and took 41 sacks as a rookie

Well, it's a mixed bag, I guess!

[DuckyBoys]

6 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:

I'd say a reasonable comparison(and I say reasonable because obviously every situation is unique and going to be a little different) is Brett Favre.  He had some raw athleticism and a cannon of an arm but he wasn't very polished at all coming out of college.  He showed flashes here and there of what he was capable of but he had to really develop his skills before he became a stud.  It took a few years but the biggest thing that sticks out to me was he was working with some great offensive minds and the master himself Andy Reid who is doing wonders with Patrick Mahomes in KC.  Do we have the right guys in place that can maximize Josh Allen's talents?  

They ran the west coast and the ball was out of Brett's hand quickly  He got himself in trouble when he held the ball and ad libbed. He also had Sterling Sharpe and a better all around cast.  Josh is in a tough spot with what he has to work with.

[PlayoffsPlease]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, that's a start, but it opens a few questions:

1) What is meant by 'mental acuity'?  Wonderlic score?  Demonstrated ability to read defenses?  What?

2) What is meant by 'level of his college experience'?  Football conference played in?  Type of offense?

3) Are we talking 1st round picks who meet these criteria?  Top of first round?  First 2 rounds?  What?

 

1. Mental acuity also includes as well.  Wonderlic scores is one way to determine that.  Success at learning a complex offense in college is another way.  Someone who had to have an offense dumbed down in college would be viewed as "flawed" rather than a project.  

2. Level of college experience.  Bortles playing at UCF (or Daunte Culpepper back in the day) or  Big Ben playing at Miami of Ohio or Josh Allen playing at U of Montana, suggest that they did not see the most sophisticated defenses in college, so may need time to learn that aspect of things in the pro.  Similarly playing and succeeding with a pro-style offense in college, A la Josh Rosen, is viewed as making a player more pro ready, less of a project. 

3. I don't think it has to be first round QBs.   I think a player like Cardale Jones was viewed as having the physical skills needed to be an NFL QB, but it was not clear if his deficiencies were flaws or fixable (ie, a project)

I think a rare few college players are projected to be ready instantly, Andrew Luck being an example, Matt Ryan was another.  Most college QBs are viewed as having flaws that can't be corrected (Russell Wilson was too short, not much to do about that.  Nate Peterman is very limited in velocity, also not typically fixable).  Sometimes it turns out the players talents are so great the flaws don't matter (like Wilson).   Project players are player like Allen, smart with no physical flaws, and some extra special talents, like his velocity.  So he has two avenues to success, his talent is so great, his flaws can be over come. Or his known flaws in mechanics and experience can be corrected over time.