The Bills' D is Starting to Take Form - Now Number Three in DVOA

[The Wiz]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Sunday, in a game where the Bears had a TOP of under 26 minutes, the Bills D still gave up 27 points (their average for the season, by the way).  In the second Q they gave up 14 (the Bills Offense gave up the other 14).

 

They weren't "worn down".

 

The jags have a bad offset, yet their D is far better than the Bills.  Why aren't they getting so when down that they give up 27 a game?

Because at some point you just give up.  Worn down doesn't always mean physically.

 

Also can you give me the bills TOP in the first half.  If it's over 7 minutes I'd be amazed.

Edited November 7, 2018 by The Wiz

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Because at some point you just give up.  Worn down doesn't always mean physically.

 

Also can you give me the bills TOP in the first half.  If it's over 7 minutes I'd be amazed.

When the offense keeps turning the ball over on your own side of the 50 (or just flat allow a opposing defense to score) even a good defense will get exposed

[Mr. WEO]

9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Because at some point you just give up.  Worn down doesn't always mean physically.

 

Also can you give me the bills TOP in the first half.  If it's over 7 minutes I'd be amazed.

 

Be amazed:  it was 12:39 minutes.

 

If they gave up in the 2nd Q, they aren't a good D.

 

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

When the offense keeps turning the ball over on your own side of the 50 (or just flat allow a opposing defense to score) even a good defense will get exposed

 

 

When the offense gives up 2 defensive TDs on 3 drives, the D is sitting on the bench a long time.  It's the Offense that had to keep trotting out there.

 

Again, better defenses (Jags, even Titans) keep the opposing score low, even if their offense struggles.  It's a 4 Q game and you can't convincingly explain away the 27 ppg as evidence of a good D.

[timekills17]

That's why PPG isn't the measure of a "good D".

The Bears' average drive starting field position  was OUR 48 yard line.

For the season, the Bills offense is 8th in starting field position. EIGHTH. The D puts the offense in good position game after game and they STILL can't score.

The Bills offense is #32 in points per drive, #24 in average TOs per drive, and their net yards per drive is -8.75. That minus sign isn't a typo. From a field position standpoint they would do better punting on first down. Literally.

 

You can't blame the defense for points against when your offense allows the other team for the season to start their average drive at their 40 yard line, and every time your offense gets the ball you're actually giving the team an extra 9 yards.

Edited November 7, 2018 by timekills17

[plenzmd1]

37-48         Combined Records of Top 10 DVOA Defences

 

52-29          Combined record of top 10 DVOA Offences 

 

Gee, wonder what side of the ball you want to dominate

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Be amazed:  it was 12:39 minutes.

 

If they gave up in the 2nd Q, they aren't a good D.

 

 

 

When the offense gives up 2 defensive TDs on 3 drives, the D is sitting on the bench a long time.  It's the Offense that had to keep trotting out there.

 

Again, better defenses (Jags, even Titans) keep the opposing score low, even if their offense struggles.  It's a 4 Q game and you can't convincingly explain away the 27 ppg as evidence of a good D.

this may not be a fair comparison..but I think we all agree the first six quarters of this season were an aberration and a throwaway.

 

Next you need to take into account starting field position, score, time of the game, level of competition etc..all of which goes into a DVOA formula. 

 

Nothing is even going to exact..but DVOA is about as close of an accurate measure as I have seen in the last 20 years.

[Big Gun]

15 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 

I just don’t know how you build around a defense anymore.  It’s just so hard to get 11-16 guys to play consistently at a high level for 48-64 games.  Along with injuries, fatigue, familiarity and free agency.

 

there have been some stellar defenses in the last 5-6 seasons but most them came and went in a blink of eye it seems like.

 

49ers Defense had a 2 season window

Legion of Boom? What? 3 season window?

Jaguars? 1 season?

Broncos? 1-2 Seasons?

 

defense is just not reliable IMO to be built upon for a long haul.

Yup, compared to offense

 

The Pats offense has been scoring at will since 2001

Saints seems to score at will since whenever

Falcons score all the time since Ryan has been there

Rams lighting it up since last year and no slow down in sight.

Chiefs scored a lot for years with A Smith and score even more with Mahomes 

Eagles had to outscore Pats in SB

 

Defense doesn't win  schitt anymore

Bedrock defensive football isn't the way to go in todays NFL.

 

 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

20 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

37-48         Combined Records of Top 10 DVOA Defences

 

52-29          Combined record of top 10 DVOA Offences 

 

Gee, wonder what side of the ball you want to dominate

this may not be a fair comparison..but I think we all agree the first six quarters of this season were an aberration and a throwaway.

 

Next you need to take into account starting field position, score, time of the game, level of competition etc..all of which goes into a DVOA formula. 

 

Nothing is even going to exact..but DVOA is about as close of an accurate measure as I have seen in the last 20 years.

 

Hard to say.  My point tis that having a bad offense is not an excuse for your  to give up 27 a game (not all in the first 6 Qs of the season).

 

Other teams are able to achieve this.

 

But you're right in general, who cares if the D is good.  It's all about the offense.  This is why I think the Bills are doomed with McD in charge.

[Jauronimo]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Be amazed:  it was 12:39 minutes.

 

If they gave up in the 2nd Q, they aren't a good D.

 

 

 

When the offense gives up 2 defensive TDs on 3 drives, the D is sitting on the bench a long time.  It's the Offense that had to keep trotting out there.

 

Again, better defenses (Jags, even Titans) keep the opposing score low, even if their offense struggles.  It's a 4 Q game and you can't convincingly explain away the 27 ppg as evidence of a good D.

27 ppg?!?!?!  How about we try to limit teams to less than 27 points in the first half?

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

27 ppg?!?!?!  How about we try to limit teams to less than 27 points in the first half?

 

From what I read here, they are too tired or bored or dispirited to be expected to do that.

 

But they are STILL a "top Defense"!!

[Jauronimo]

29 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

From what I read here, they are too tired or bored or dispirited to be expected to do that.

 

But they are STILL a "top Defense"!! 

Too many 3 and outs?  What are the heat maps saying?!?!

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

27 ppg?!?!?!  How about we try to limit teams to less than 27 points in the first half?

it is pretty hard to overcome turnovers on your side of the 50....of which there were many

[Jauronimo]

33 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

it is pretty hard to overcome turnovers on your side of the 50....of which there were many

It shouldn't be when its an established part of the plan. 

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

It shouldn't be when its an established part of the plan. 

Im sorry I dont understand what you are trying to say.....can you explain it further?

[LSHMEAB]

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Be amazed:  it was 12:39 minutes.

 

If they gave up in the 2nd Q, they aren't a good D.

 

 

 

When the offense gives up 2 defensive TDs on 3 drives, the D is sitting on the bench a long time.  It's the Offense that had to keep trotting out there.

 

Again, better defenses (Jags, even Titans) keep the opposing score low, even if their offense struggles.  It's a 4 Q game and you can't convincingly explain away the 27 ppg as evidence of a good D.

Stop ruining a good narrative with facts!

 

The defense is fixed and Sean McDermott is a mastermind on that side of the ball. Just need to work on the O!

 

This defense is middle of the pack.

 

 

[BigDingus]

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Stop ruining a good narrative with facts!

 

The defense is fixed and Sean McDermott is a mastermind on that side of the ball. Just need to work on the O!

 

This defense is middle of the pack.

 

 

 

I wouldn't say "mastermind." When I hear that word, I think of what Schwartz was able to do with our defense.

Now THAT was a fun defense to watch, even when our offense look anemic.

[Mr. WEO]

40 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

it is pretty hard to overcome turnovers on your side of the 50....of which there were many

 

 

No there weren't.  There were 4  turnovers---2 of which were immediately returned for TDs.

 

Both of the Bears 2Q Offensive TDs came after Bills punts. Later, their third TD (and one of their FGs) came after Bills scores.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

No there weren't.  There were 4  turnovers---2 of which were immediately returned for TDs.

 

Both of the Bears 2Q Offensive TDs came after Bills punts. Later, their third TD (and one of their FGs) came after Bills scores.

This absolutely does not strengthen your arguement......it makes it worse

 

14 points that the defense could do absolutely nothing about

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

 

I wouldn't say "mastermind." When I hear that word, I think of what Schwartz was able to do with our defense.

Now THAT was a fun defense to watch, even when our offense look anemic.

Yep! Schwartz had a legitimately elite unit.

 

I don't see that here.

[Jauronimo]

9 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Im sorry I dont understand what you are trying to say.....can you explain it further?

As you have repeatedly described, being historically bad is part of the plan.  Having the worst offense and worst QB play in the modern era is part of the plan.  Turning the ball over inside the 50 is part of the plan. 

 

Why would a top defense have trouble with a short field when everything is going to plan?  McDermott and Beane have been preparing the defense for it all camp and preseason.  Its all part of the plan.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

This absolutely does not strengthen your arguement......it makes it worse

 

14 points that the defense could do absolutely nothing about

 

No.  I've been pretty clear all along that the problem is that they gave up 27 points.

 

It wasn't because of turnovers.