Happy Days Lois & Clark Posted March 21, 2005 Posted March 21, 2005 As we saw in the AFCC, smarts count. The NE Pats have more college grads on their roster than any other team. They’ve won 3 of the past 4 championships; there may be a link. Of course, there are other aspects; outlined, three factors in evaluation: A willingness to compete: Lacking inside information, we’ll accept participation at the Combine as an indicator. Smarts: Admittedly, football smarts may be distinct from those measured by Wonderlic scores. However, that’s all we’ve got; besides, some of the numbers below are hilarious. Physical ability within range: Some benchmarks are attached to the following. IOL: As noted in our post-Combine O-side survey, the Steelers’ 2005 draft strategy revolves around the OC spot. Like no team in football, the PS FO has lavished R1 picks on the inner three, the IOL. Some would have them do so again; however, in a draft that is as deep at the spot(s) as is this; they would do better to wait, IMO. We’ll see; regardless, here are a few prospects that should receive no Day 1 bid. Elton Brown: Widely regarded as #1 at OG. However, Brown bailed at the Senior Bowl; he left Indy too, if “with permission.” This suggests some issues concerning his competitiveness, IMO. Reportedly, his weight has fluctuated wildly over the e v a l season. Additionally, though O-linemen are generally the brightest players on the field, Brown scored (13) on his Wonderlic. Not good. Marcus Johnson: Did not get good reviews at the Senior Bowl; part of the South O-line that was savaged by DE Bill Swancutt and Matt Roth. At Indy: scored (17) on the Wonderlic; did (21) reps which is ok not good. Not R2 worthy, IMO. Chris Kemoeatu: Anger management issues, (14) on Wonderlic. OT: Expanding slightly on those O-side Notes: Jamaal Brown: Scored (12) on that Wonderlic, not that he’ll be there at 1.30 anyway. Adam Terry: One of few OT that did nothing at the Combine. Competitiveness, toughness are questionable; IMO, not R2 worthy. Jeremy Parquet: (17) reps won’t get it. Wesley Britt: Hot tub fixture at Alabama; tall, will have pad level issues. Not R2 worthy, IMO. Rob Petitti: Showed up fat at the Senior Bowl, didn’t work out in Indy. WR: WR don’t have to be geniuses. They do have to be fast; over the past 5 drafts, R1 WR have averaged 4.47 in the 40, with a range of 4.33-4.60. Anything less is less than Day1 talent. Larry Brackins: Is he willing to compete? Big WR out of Pearl River CC; had a chance to go to Florida State; remained at Pearl, presumably, a big fish in that tiny river. 4.58 40 doesn’t suggest any tremendous upside. Fred Gibson: Less than meets the eye; not a Day 1 value, IMO. Chris Henry: Behavior problem, (9) on Wonderlic suggests a cause. Steve Savoy: 4.62 40, (13) Wonderlic. Not fast, not clever. Paris Warren: 4.71 and (17). Craig Bragg: Needed to show at the Senior Bowl, but did not. RB: Few RB are Mensa candidates; as for speed, well, R1 picks over the past 5 seasons have averaged 4.52 with a range of 4.40 to 4.65. Again, anything less is less than Day 1 talent. JJ Arrington: Nation’s leading rusher but had a bad Senior Bowl. However, did well at Combine so who knows? Still, a smallish back lacking Portis/Bell type speed. Maybe later but not R2 worthy, IMO. Maurice Clarett: 40 time slower than some DE and most LB, not that he’s on the Steelers’ list anyway. Frank Gore: Played at 230# last season; showed up at Miami’s Pro Day weighing just 208#. Who is he kidding? Wonderlic score of (6) suggests no one at all. Ran in the mid-4.6 range, which is not Day 1 worthy. KJ Harris: Great talent marred by nagging injuries throughout his collegiate career. Mediocre Senior Bowl. Now 26 years old; was a man among boys at WVU but (despite talent) did not dominate. No reason to believe he will do so in the show. Not Day 1 worthy, IMO. TA McClendon: Persistent injury issues in school; fumbled a lot too. At Indy: ran 4.71 40, including 1.69 over the first 10 yards. C’mon. Vernand Morency: Small RB lacking elite speed; like Gore, mid-4.6 at Miami Pro Day. By way of comparison, former college teammate Tatum Bell did 4.37. Did not drill at Indy, did fire off an (11) on the Wonderlic. Walter Reyes: Smallish back who clocked 1.70 over the first 10 yards of his 40. Came on with a sub-4.6 40, not that it matters. Wonderlic, (11). On the other side of the ball: Front 7: For R1 DE, a 4.70 40 is <average good>; for LB, 4.60. Eric Moore: 4.84 40 is outside of Day 1 range for OLB. Scored (9) on Wonderlic, which suggests he’ll have some issues grasping the 3-4. Bill Swancutt: 5.0 40. Not since Clark Haggans… George Gause: (14) Wonderlic; said to prefer 4-3 anyway. Jason Babineaux: Physically, does not fit the system; (13) Wonderlic suggests he’s not going to get it. Mike Patterson: As above, except Wonderlic was (9). Lance Mitchell: (14) Wonderlic, 4.85 40 is outside Day 1 range. Odell Thurman: Like his college teammate Fred Gibson, less than meets the eye, IMO. Wonderlic, (12). DB: In the past 5 years, R1 CB have averaged 4.45 in the 40; standard good for the shuttle is ~4.00; for the cone, ~7.00. Anything less is less than Day 1 worthy. For safeties, the numbers are: 4.47 with a range of 4.32 to 4.60. Travis Daniels: Marginal athletic ability for CB; Wonderlic of (10) doesn’t suggest a transfer to FS. Corey Webster: Wonderlic (12), bench reps, (9); did no other drills, suggesting some competitiveness issues. Webster is a fine press corner but struggled with zone at the Senior Bowl. He may be a player but does not fit the system here, IMO. Chris McKenzie: Small CB who flew thru the 40 at 4.32. However, shuttle of 4.33 suggests he’s a straightline only type. For CB, that’s not good. Jamaal Brimmer: 4.80 40. Brandon Browner: 4.63 40 was worst among CB; 4.24 shuttle wasn’t good either; R3 value, IMO. Red Flags: RB Brandon Jacobs: Stunned on-lookers running 4.56 at 6’-3”, 260#. Frightening. However, Jake was slow over the first 10 yards and for running backs that’s not good. Jacobs was clocked at 1.69, slower than all RB tested, other than Reyes and McClendon. Over the past (5) years, only (3) RB timed in that range went on to accomplish anything on the show. Those are: DeShaun Foster (1.65 on to 4.57), Marcel Shipp (1.66 on to 4.75) and Pittsburgh’s own Verron Haynes (1.74 on to 4.66). Still, Jacobs has been elevated to R3 on some lists, suggesting a RB cluster there with: Jacobs, Eric Shelton and Marion Barber. Caveat Emptor. Jovan Hayes: Killer Combine; weighing 280#, ran a 4.74 40; did (34) reps. On the downside, (14) Wonderlic isn’t good; however, attended Vanderbilt, a good school, which suggests he may be bright enough. Production is a puzzle too: 8.5 sacks as a junior, (1) in his senior campaign. Matt Jones: 6’-5”, 239#, 4.37 40. Nick Saban considers him a winner but he’ll never be an NFL QB. Despite that, he did not drill with the TE/WR drills at Indy, preferring to chuck it with the QB. Great talent, no position. In contrast to those prospects disparaged above, these featuring beauty and brains, some D-side players that seem to have it all: Front 7: H W 40 Reps Wonderlic Remarks Luis Castillo 6-3 305 4.79 32 37 In the past (5) drafts, only (3) 300# D-linemen have run 4.82 or below. They are, in order of merit: Kevin Williams, A. Haynesworth and Wendall Bryant. Castillo is R1 worthy Chris Canty 6-7 283 34 Did not participate. Injury history suggests R3 or later. Shaun Cody 6-4 293 34 29 Lifted only. A player with great technique; may be maxed out developmentally. A. Ellison 6-4 305 5.07 25 26 Rising prospect out of Mizzou. David Pollack 6-2 265 4.75 25 30 Jumped 37”. Shuttle (3.94) and cone (6.87) are CB class. In the past (5) drafts, no DE has gone under 4.00; of all DE, only KGB and Carlos Hall have gone under 7.00. Pollack does have R1 worthy athletic ability. Justin Tuck 6-5 268 29 DNP. Indicated a preference for the 4-3. DB: H W 40 Reps Wonderlic Remarks Ronald Bartell 6-1 211 4.37 21 35 Small school athlete with smarts; bears watching as the next Charles Tillman. Sean Considine 6-0 212 4.50 19 33 Considered by some best performer at position during Senior Bowl week. Stan Wilson 6-0 185 4.36 14 31 Stanford product; had a spotty Senior Bowl Abe Elimimian 5-10 190 4.62 14 28 Polished cover player lacking long speed; mid round prospect in the Townsend mode. Fabian Washington 5-10 188 4.27 18 25 Fastest 40 since Deion Sanders. Darrent Williams 5-9 176 4.30 16 25 Small CB; considered by some best performer at position during Senior Bowl week. From Castillo or Cody to Pollack up front with the DB noted behind, speed and smarts too. Why look elsewhere? http://www.stillers.com/article_show.asp?ID=1424
Happy Days Lois & Clark Posted March 22, 2005 Author Posted March 22, 2005 more notes 2005 D-side (not so) Small Board of Big Value (SBBV) If professionals with a fine track record such as, say, former PS Head of Operations Tom Donahoe, describe the draft as “a crap shot”, still worse for those of us with no inside information at all. We do know there are, maybe, five parameters in evaluating prospects, to include: Performance: Productivity at the college level is paramount. Physical talent: Standards by position are noted below. Those are worthless when used to imagine some future performance beyond that level established in school. That describes the “workout warrior”, a standard catastrophe. However, they are highly useful in predicting whether, or not, a great college player can translate that production forward. One example being Zo Jackson, who was a force in school but seems to have busted in the show. No surprise: Jackson’s test results revealed he was slower than most LB and weaker than all DE; in fact, he was slower than most DE and weaker than most LB too. A prospect might look fast or powerful on game tape; however, it’s important to remember that we view things relatively, or, in context. That is, a pass rusher might look quick going against some college fat boy who is on his way to a career in the mortgage industry but against the true creatures lining up on Sundays, not so much. IMO, those professing no interest in WO results are deluding themselves with respect to the nature of human perception. In short, WO results are useful to confirm performance; they may not be used to invent that. Medical issues: Medical history is largely an open subject. However, medical information gathered at the Combine and used as a predictor of future performance is not. Every year, prospects fall on that basis; Lee Suggs being a prime example. Football character: Toughness, team orientation, all that. Web sites are rift with rumor but scouts, who spend their lives on the road, have the real deal and, no doubt, that is a set of closely held secrets. Character is a considerable component; this is why some, such as Bill Billick, regard interviews as the most significant factor at the Combine. Every year, prospects rise and fall on that outcome; here, we can guess but we just don’t know. Intelligence: In the same way that football character may be distinct from standard good character, football intelligence may be separate from book smarts. Still, the latter count, with some teams more than others, notably the world champion NE Pats. As is well known, the Pats have more college grads on their roster than any other team. In Patriot Reign, it was revealed that NE gives written tests to all players as part of their weekly game preparation. Now, to perform there, one has to be literate. Wonderlic scores are an indicator; those are part of the Combine process, additionally, they have been administered to the general population as part of, say, job interviews for many, many years. From that, this: the average score for the US population is 22. A score of 10 or below suggests illiteracy. The last suggests why all those rumors last spring, that NE would move for Sean Taylor, were bogus. Taylor scored barely above 10; per Pat Reign, he was not listed on NE’s board at all. On the flip side, per the same tome, an indicator of the distinction between football character/IQ and that prized more widely. In 2000, NE drafted TE Jabari Holloway out of Notre Dame. A year later, they let him go in the Houston expansion draft. Clearly, a blown pick, even by R4 standards and, in hindsight, the Pat brain trust (felt they) knew why. In his senior season, Holloway had missed considerable practice time due to some academic scheduling conflict. For most, the fact that he could perform on the field and meet his book requirements would be considered a positive virtue. For the Pats, retrospectively, not so much; to them, it was understood that the time was now for Holloway and football, a degree could come later. For the Pats, this suggested a priority issue; perhaps, football was not as important to this prospect as was necessary for championship performance. If so, well, he’s not their guy. So, the distinction of standard vs. football character, with one more observation: contrary to notion that O-linemen are dumb beasts, Wonderlic scores for this unit, on average, surpass those of all others, including QB. Yet, to perform on Sunday, O-line types must be fattened to the limit of human endurance. For most, the consequences are serious: hypertension, risk of stroke, adult onset diabetes and so on. For some, the results are tragic: Korey Stringer’s heat death foremost. In short, the smartest guys on the field risk the direst of consequences; there’s your football IQ, there’s your football character. By civil standards, reckless to the point of insanity, but, well, that’s the way it is, that’s the way it goes. Okay. Performance Standards for Prospects, by Position: Ourlads has compiled stats for R1 prospects over the past 5 seasons. Standards for defenders are noted below: H W 40 Height Range Weight Range Speed Range 21 DT 6040 310 5.02 6007-6067 293-325 4.80-5.30 17 DE 6035 270 4.70 6010-6067 250-283 4.48-4.88 09 OLB 6026 243 4.58 6006-6034 232-260 4.46-4.74 04 ILB 6024 248 4.60 6000-6034 230-258 4.46-4.82 19 CB 5113 195 4.45 5090-6024 180-209 4.32-4.60 07 S 6005 214 4.47 5101-6024 201-230 4.40-4.50 One may note traces of prior Steeler drafts; say: Casey Hampton, the shortest, slowest, heaviest DT taken R1, and one of the best. Polamalu is there too; others apparent include Antoine Winfield, smallest of the CB; Dwight Freeney, shortest and fastest of the DE. And so on. The following tables display WO numbers for some possible PS picks, desirable IMO. High performance on particular parameters will be in boldface, as are players most likely to make the final SBBV. D-Line: Key: DNP: Did not participate. DND: do not draft. H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Luis Castillo 6-3 305 4.79 32 4.26 34.4” 37 Fastest 40 posted by any DT in the past 5 years. Tough, smart, durable. R1 value at 1.30 Marcus Spears 6-4 307 15 Weak, (15) being (1) fewer than Zo. Spears was DNP at the Combine; will WO late March, 2nd Pro Day at LSU. Shaun Cody 6-4 293 34 29 Cody DNP at Indy. Attiyah Ellison 6-4 305 5.07 25 4.83 8.01 27.5” 26 Agility bad but not worse than Mizzou teammate CJ Moseley Sione Pouha 6-3 325 5.02 32 4.40 7.84 32” 21 Best NT in the draft, by far. Others are DND. Chris Canty 6-7 283 34 Canty DNP at Indy. Injury history is a serious concern. Day 2 value at best, IMO. Eric Coleman 6-5 288 5.12 27 4.73 7.43 33” 22 For some, a sleeper pick. Tim Bulman 6-3 294 4.91 35 4.21 7.24 31.5” 26 Some Day 1 attributes, above average smarts. C. Solomona 6-5 286 4.76 26 4.45 7.29 33” ? Results from Oregon Pro Day IMO, Castillo is the #1 DT in this draft; as such, he is a value at 1.30. Pouha is no worse than #8; as such he is a value in R3. In contrast, players like Anttaj Hawthorne, CJ Moseley and Ellison will be overvalued in April; both Coleman and Bulman are similar prospects, and should be available Day 2. Evidently, Solomona has R1 worthy athleticism; he may be a tremendous value late. Otherwise: DT such as Mike Patterson, Lorenzo Alexander and Darrell Shopshire do not fit PS the system, IMO. As for the NT: Tony Bryant didn’t distinguish himself at the Senior Bowl; neither Larry Burt nor Al Means were invited. Learning could be an issue: that trio having a combined Wonderlic score of 38, one better than Castillo accomplished alone. Turning to the OLB, perhaps in the Willie McGinest mode: Big OLB: H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Shawne Merriman 6-4 272 25 19 DNP at Indy; Pro Day March 16th Doesn’t figure to be available 1.30 David Pollack 6-2 265 4.79 25 3.94 6.87 37” 30 Great agility, productivity and want-to; downside is frame length, short arms. DeMarcus Ware 6-4 251 4.61 27 4.07 6.85 38.5” 20 Speed close to R1 OLB standard, better than DE. Vertical matches Kendrell Bell, 2001. Matt Roth 6-4 278 4.85 26 4.36 7.65 32” 16 Seems to lack movement skills for OLB. Dan Cody 6-4 254 4.75 4.56 7.09 33” 21 DNP at Indy. Marks are from Pro Day. Jason Babineaux 6-2 286 4.87 21 4.62 7.71 29.5” 13 Poor vertical, poor Wonderlic. Said to have good lateral ability, but Combine doesn’t support that. Jovan Hayes 6-2 284 4.82 33 4.38 7.40 34” 14 A puzzle. 8.5 sacks as a junior, 1.0 as a senior. David McMillan 6-3 262 4.60 16 4.08 7.11 34” 16 Good straightline speed, decent agility, mediocre VJ, Zo weak. Tony Ficklin 6-2 268 4.68 38 ? ? ? Results from San Jose State Pro Day. The value cluster forecast earlier for DE/OLB at 1.30 seems to be evaporating. Justin Tuck, who (probably) has the measurables, has evidenced a disinterest in the system practiced here. Neither Roth nor Cody seems to have state of the art athleticism (SOTA). Of those, Roth has the demeanor but Cody’s history of depression and, reportedly, an off-putting attitude at Indy, casts a shadow on his prospects. Things don’t improve later: of the big boys (Babineaux and Hayes), Hayes seems to have the better measurables, but those aren’t great. McMillan looks like a faster version Zo. In sum, it seems to be Pollack, or Ware, or bust. Of course, the Steelers’ need at OLB remains; below, some prospects perhaps in the mode of a Joey Porter: Standard 3-4 OLB: H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Kevin Burnett 6-3 239 20 36” 30 DNP 40 and agility. Pro Day March 16 Daryl Blackstock 6-3 247 4.70 25 4.32 7.05 39” 16 Experienced in the 3-4. 40 not great but 1.62 at 10 yards approaches Ware. Not Dwight Freeney, who did 1.44 in 2002 Michael Boley 6-3 236 4.56 DNP 4.12 7.08 34” 30 Productive pass rusher at Ole Miss. Mediocre VJ; excellent 40; decent agility. Derek Wake 6-3 236 4.65 20 4.13 7.12 45.5” 21 Like Welsh, has to get stronger. VJ, #2 all-time at Combine, will move him way up. Probably, too far. Jon Welsh 6-3 244 4.68 19 4.22 7.38 40.5” 25 Played at Wisconsin with several Day 1 D-prospects. Halo effect? Reportedly, ran sub 4.50 at Pro Day. Jordan Beck 6-2 233 4.60 25 4.12 7.11 41” 27 Outstanding athlete. Position is subject to question, as is ability to translate from small school competition. Jon Jackson 6-3 235 4.60 4.41 7.45 ? ? Pro Day results; not invited to Combine. As productive as Dan Cody at Oklahoma. Good straight speed, poor agility marks. Other aspects not known. Derrick Johnson is the consensus #1 at OLB; he does not figure to be at 1.30 and, even if he were, he’s a dubious choice for the 3-4. Johnson is a chase player who has some issues taking on blocks. That doesn’t suggest an OKIE OLB; his height may pose pad level issues inside. Then too, while adding back Blackstock (or, maybe Burnett) seems to resuscitate that OLB cluster at 1.30, it’s questionable whether either prospect rates selection at that point. We’ve seen the effects of a reach before: in 2003, the Steelers drafted Zo Jackson despite the fact he did just (16) reps, ran a 4.89 with agility tests of 4.45 and 7.69. That did not suggest he would translate his considerable collegiate production forward. The PS FO drafted Zo because he could jump, this being considered an indicator of explosiveness. At that time, Jackson’s 37” vertical was considered something special. Well, not so much now: Pollack, Ware, Blackstock, Wake, Welsh and Beck met or exceeded that figure; that’s 6 of 14 prospects (with a mark) listed above. Beyond doubt, the PS can get a developmental OLB prospect next spring; they can get a difference maker too, R1 with Pollack or Ware anyway. After that, value seems to be is Day 2, as may be so at ILB too: 3-4 ILB: H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Channing Crowder 6-2 252 4.71 ? 4.21 6.57 35.5” 30 Times from Pro Day when he weighed 242 Barrett Ruud 6-2 241 4.75 25 4.00 7.22 34.5” 35 High try, smart guy but for the PS, not a R2 value, IMO. Jared Newberry 6-1 254 30 Newberry DNP at Indy. Date for Stanford Pro Day not found. Kirk Morrison 6-1 235 25 4.35 DNP DNP 25 DNP at Indy; could be Foote-like in that measurables may not support projecting his great college career. Alan Seward 6-2 248 4.60 33 4.11 7.17 36.5” 33 Superb measurables, highly productive at UNLV Jon Pollard 6-1 247 4.68 21 4.08 7.42 35” 24 OLB at OSU; figures as WILB. James Grigsby 6-0 249 4.60 32 DNP 7.11 35.5” 34 Everyone’s favorite sleeper, so no sleeper at all. Like Beck, a highly productive small school guy whose measurables do translate. Tyjuan Hagler 6-0 236 4.59 35 4.13 7.21 35.5” 19 10-yard 1.56 matches Bell, 2001. James Kinney 6-0 244 4.63 30 4.32 6.77 34” ? Not invited to Indy; all results from Pro Day. Said to have been a team leader at Mizzou Just for laughs: H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Clark Haggans 6-3 253 5.04 20 4.21 7.12 31.5” ? Sack leader at Colorado state but measurables do not compute Larry Foote 6-1 231 4.77 24 4.41 7.18 30” ? Great Big 11 LB; measurables do not compute. Kendrell Bell 6-1 234 4.64 24 4.50 ? 38.5” ? 10-yard 1.56; that and VJ sealed the deal. Zo Jackson 6-4 266 4.89 16 4.45 7.69 37” ? Number of DE with <16 reps? Until McMillan, none. Second day small school prospects like: Seward, Grigsby, Beck and Hagler seem to possess athleticism on the level of a Kendrell Bell. Two were >30 Wonderlic-wise; Beck was well above average too. As is true for all small school players, there is a question as to how these prospects will respond to a higher level of competition; then again, Kendrell Bell played just one season at UGA. As for the secondary: CB: H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Justin Miller 5-10 201 4.42 15 DNP 41.5” 22 Consensus #4 CB, a rank traditionally on the board at 1.30. Fabian Washington 5-10 188 4.29 18 3.96 41.5” 25 Fastest 40 since Deion Sanders. 3-year starter, including frosh campaign. Marlin Jackson 6-1 198 4.52 23 4.04 6.96 36” 21 Marginal speed, slightly above average agility. Ron Bartell 6-1 211 4.37 21 DNP 35.5” 35 Figures to move up but agility factors unknown. Size, strength and smarts suggest FS/CB. Stanley Wilson 6-0 185 4.36 14 4.07 6.81 38” 30 Reportedly, soft; reportedly, has not produced to physical ability. Nick Collins 5-11 206 4.38 11 40” 14 Didn’t test strong, didn’t test smart. Alphonso Hodge 5-11 203 4.44 20 4.07 DNP 34” 22 Decent Combine but stock slipped, or so it is said. Karl Paymuh 6-0 204 4.35 15 3.94 7.11 41.5” 15 Like Wilson, didn’t produce to those numbers. Shirdonya Mitchell 6-0 185 4.32 ? ? ? ? Mizzou Pro day results. Blew ACL there; will be on PUP list this season. Possible future value. The top 3 CBs (by consensus: Rolle, Rogers and Jones) figure to be long-gone by 1.30. By way of comparison to those noted above, Rogers did a 4.31 40, along with outstanding agilities, 3.84 and 6.49 (the latter being DeAngelo Hall good). Post 1.30, well: Bryan McFadden, Eric Green and Corey Webster generally are considered R2 picks; however Green has had injury issues, as has Webster (who did a 12 Wonderlic and 9 reps) and McFadden is nothing special, IMO. Bartell and Jackson may be 2.62 worthy but the others, not so much. Turning to the smaller CB, generally found from R3 and beyond: NCB: H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Darrent Williams 5-9 176 4.30 13 3.97 6.98 34” 25 Excellent Senior Bowl. Good Combine but agility marks aren’t what you’d expect. Dom. Foxworth 5-11 184 4.34 14 3.89 6.78 41” 20 Reportedly, high character prospect. Not much in run support. Reportedly, stock up. Scott Starks 5-8 172 4.37 13 3.92 7.01 43” 25 Track star, Big 11 all-academic. Abe Elimimian 5-10 190 4.62 14 4.06 DNP 39” 28 VJ surprisingly good. Ellis Hobbs 5-9 192 4.45 12 4.08 6.80 42” 14 Wonderlic score a disappointment for 3-time Big 12 all-academic. Daven Holly 5-10 192 4.39 15 4.08 7.16 39” 16 Local product out of Clairton. PS missed on Leigh Bodden of Duquesne. There are an uncommon number of quality CB prospects in this class. Speed is of the essence; reportedly as many as (11) went under 4.40 at Indy. Therefore, if the PS go elsewhere R1, they still may expect considerable quality among the 13th to 20th CB overall. That’s in the area of R3 thru R4, with, perhaps, some stragglers in R5. Finally: Safety: H W 40 Reps Agility Vertical Wonderlic Remarks Sean Considine 6-0 212 4.50 19 3.93 7.11 37” 33 Best S at Senior Bowl. Figures to be the Madieu Williams of this class, a Day 2 prospect rising to R2. OJ Atogwe 5-11 219 4.52 22 DNP DNP 30 Like his Stanford teammate Stanley Wilson, may not play to his talent level. Ger. Sensabaugh 6-1 214 4.44 17 DNP 46” 21 Incredible athlete, probably a SS. Justin Beriault 6-3 204 4.52 14 3.84 6.93 39.5” 20 Incredible agility for a player of his height. Contrast with Browner (4.63, 4.24 and 7.21) Patrick Body 6-1 193 4.32 ? ? ? ? Pro Day results, not invited to Combine. Stalwart at Toledo. Considine is a player; while his athleticism has been considered suspect, his Combine shows that is, in fact, very near R1 level; his Wonderlic suggests he’d grasp the system quickly. Sensabaugh is a monster; while the PS are fixed with (4) SS now, it’s possible to imagine Polamalu taking the signal-calling role, with Sensabaugh being that physical match for TE, which the PS long have lacked. A similar case can be made for Beriault. Finally: Provisional, by rounds: The PS drafts deep in each round. Below, prospects are slotted at the last point where they figure to be available. Boldface may represent either value at the spot or the presence of a value cluster within which may lurk some individual standout. (Players) as shown here are likely to be long gone. 1.30 2.62 3.93 Deep R4 Deep R5 Deep R6-7 Remarks D-line (8) (Spears) (S. Cody) Castillo Pouha Canty Coleman Bulman Solomona Value early and late. McGinest (9) (Merriman) Pollack Ware D. Cody Roth Babineaux Hayes McMillan Ficklin Value early or not at all OLB (7) Burnett Blackstock Boley (Wake) Welsh Beck J. Jackson Beck could be anywhere ILB (9) Crowder Ruud Newberry Morrison Seward Grigsby Hagler Pollard Kinney ILB Day 1 doubtful. Early and late mid-round values. CB (7) Miller Washington (Jackson) Bartell Wilson Collins Hodge Paymuh Mitchell As usual, early or not at all for quality big CB. NCB (6) Williams Foxworth Starks Hobbs Elimimian Holly Quality in mid rounds. FS (5) (Considine) (Sensabaugh) Atogwe Beriault Body Considine is a high value in R3. In our next iteration, some prospects will be removed, slotting will be refined; in the end, hopefully, we’ll develop a product that accurately predicts which prospects in any given round go on to become quality players. While the SBBV will reflect the needs of the PS, as those are understood here, it is not intended to predict which prospects the PS FO will draft. That’s for others, with insider type knowledge. Here, using the information developed in our Draft Survey, Honolulu, Vincent and Pats/Eagles sequence, is sought the best aggregate outcome. Off that, the cleanest picks are: Castillo, Pollack, Wilson and Considine; there are no questions concerning either the competitiveness or productivity of three of those prospects. Finally, insufficient information on: Marcus Spears, Shaun Cody, Chris Canty, Chris Solomona, Tony Ficklin, Jon Jackson, James Kinney, Shirdonya Mitchell and Patrick Body. http://www.stillers.com/article_show.asp?ID=1425
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