WR Prospect talk

[PetermansRedemption]

On 2/12/2019 at 2:52 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

And I would take that body-builder physique as a negative.........he literally looks like a young Bruce Smith in that picture.........you don't need that bulk at WR you need quickness and flexibility that is hard to attain carrying all that extra hamburger.

But, what if that body builder physique comes WITH the quickness to burn? Obviously the combine will tell, but I believe Metcalf is projected to run in the 4.4’s? It’s just too bad he already has the injury history, would have loved to see his stats from a healthy college campaign this season. I usually prefer to stay away from college players who tend to be injured, it rarely seems to improve at the NFL level. 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

So at the Combine, Anthony Johnson still has an ankle problem.  He'll likely significantly drop on the boards.  If we can satisfy our primary OL and other requirements in FA and early in the draft, he may be worth a mid to late round pick if he's still available.

[Chicken Boo]

On 12/27/2018 at 8:11 AM, Ittakestime said:

 

Um, NO.

 

The kid is a walking injury that doesn't possess the quick acceleration and breakaway speed this league is going to.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Metcalf fall during draft process.  He is still going off potential because he never plays.

 

Yup

[Blokestradamus]

On 3/2/2019 at 9:19 PM, Chicken Boo said:

 

Yup

 

I remember the last time we did the whole "comparison to Quintorris" thing with Sammy. That went well

[Logic]

If Metcalf's tape backs up his combine numbers and shows that he's an elite WR prospect, then great. If he's just got mediocre tape and/or the only reason people want him top 10 is because of his measurables, then it's a hard pass for me. Every year we get these freak physical specimens that look like Tarzan but play like Jane. And every single year, people get amnesia about the LAST TIME this happened, put their blinders on, and get excited about these beefed up speedsters that can't actually play football. Mind you, I haven't watched much of Metcalf, so maybe he's a quality prospect. I just can't shake the feeling that he's going to be drafted more for his measurables than his abilities as a football player.

[Blokestradamus]

How do we feel about Anthony Ratliff-Williams from UNC? He's obviously not quite at the same developmental stage as his peers but I think he's shown enough that I'd give him a couple of years to develop in the NFL as long as he can be useful on ST as a returner and a gunner.

 

I love the fact that he plays like he's 6'5" and can impose himself on a DB. Already a very solid blocker. He lacks a little bit of seasoning with his route running and he can be a bit of a body catcher but he's really only been playing WR for a couple of years. He might be someone worth a little bit of patience to see if he can evolve into a legit NFL #2.

[DCOrange]

Sounds like Preston Williams is absolutely bombing his Pro Day. His draft stock was already on the decline and this will not help.

[C.Biscuit97]

I’m probably in the minority but I would kinda hate the Metcalf pick.  Injuries, lack of production, blowing up because of a combine, and not even being a number 1 on his college team terrifies me.

 

Maybe it all comes together in the Nfl.  But he seems like a really risky pick at 9. 

[DCOrange]

16 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m probably in the minority but I would kinda hate the Metcalf pick.  Injuries, lack of production, blowing up because of a combine, and not even being a number 1 on his college team terrifies me.

 

Maybe it all comes together in the Nfl.  But he seems like a really risky pick at 9. 

He was already being mocked around the top 10-15 prior to the combine, with a few people pegging him as the Bills' pick. Seems like after the combine, people don't really expect him to make it to 9, but if he does, then that's basically where people had always expected him to go.

 

I think the main argument against drafting him (outside of the injuries which the Bills will obviously know far more about than any of us) is the fact that the WR class is so deep. Even if Metcalf is a better prospect than all the other WRs (which I think he is), you could pretty strongly argue that it's a better value play to just wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to get a WR while addressing other position/s in the first round or two.

 

As far as production goes, he basically checked that box already. He was a significant player for Ole Miss before he had even turned 20 years old, which is generally a very good sign for a WR prospect. In his final year, he was on pace for roughly 1,275 yards and 11 TDs before he got injured. At that point, AJ Brown was projected to have like 50 more yards but "only" 8 TDs (which is still good), so they were basically neck and neck in terms of production despite the fact that as the underneath option, AJ received far more targets.

 

Based on Metcalf's skillset, I think he could be utilized more in the NFL than he was in college, but I also think the basic framework of the Ole Miss offense (despite it being pretty rudimentary) is more or less what Buffalo could go for and would be highly valuable to have. Ole Miss basically sent Metcalf and DeMarkus Lodge deep every play while AJ worked underneath. This basically forced defenses to play two safeties deep because Metcalf and Lodge were so dominant down the field, thus opening up a ton of space for their run game and AJ's short range passes to be effective. It's not hard to picture the Bills doing the same with Robert Foster and Metcalf going deep all the time and opening things up for whoever their slot WR or TE ends up being, not to mention the run game as well as Allen's run game specifically. Metcalf has the potential to turn into the go-to guy for an offense, but in the very least, his size and athleticism opposite Foster would be a huge game changer for the offense IMO.

[N.Y. Orangeman]

3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

He was already being mocked around the top 10-15 prior to the combine, with a few people pegging him as the Bills' pick. Seems like after the combine, people don't really expect him to make it to 9, but if he does, then that's basically where people had always expected him to go.

 

I think the main argument against drafting him (outside of the injuries which the Bills will obviously know far more about than any of us) is the fact that the WR class is so deep. Even if Metcalf is a better prospect than all the other WRs (which I think he is), you could pretty strongly argue that it's a better value play to just wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to get a WR while addressing other position/s in the first round or two.

 

As far as production goes, he basically checked that box already. He was a significant player for Ole Miss before he had even turned 20 years old, which is generally a very good sign for a WR prospect. In his final year, he was on pace for roughly 1,275 yards and 11 TDs before he got injured. At that point, AJ Brown was projected to have like 50 more yards but "only" 8 TDs (which is still good), so they were basically neck and neck in terms of production despite the fact that as the underneath option, AJ received far more targets.

 

Based on Metcalf's skillset, I think he could be utilized more in the NFL than he was in college, but I also think the basic framework of the Ole Miss offense (despite it being pretty rudimentary) is more or less what Buffalo could go for and would be highly valuable to have. Ole Miss basically sent Metcalf and DeMarkus Lodge deep every play while AJ worked underneath. This basically forced defenses to play two safeties deep because Metcalf and Lodge were so dominant down the field, thus opening up a ton of space for their run game and AJ's short range passes to be effective. It's not hard to picture the Bills doing the same with Robert Foster and Metcalf going deep all the time and opening things up for whoever their slot WR or TE ends up being, not to mention the run game as well as Allen's run game specifically. Metcalf has the potential to turn into the go-to guy for an offense, but in the very least, his size and athleticism opposite Foster would be a huge game changer for the offense IMO.

Great post.  That offense was ridiculous.   He, according to reports, ran three routes.  The 2018 Ole Miss football team will go down as one of the most disappointing teams ever and, unfortunately, is due mostly to an inept coaching staff.  They'll likely have 3 WR, a QB (50-50 on him IMO), a TE and two OLs drafted.

Edited March 7, 2019 by N.Y. Orangeman

[DCOrange]

https://theathletic.com/849173/2019/03/07/teds-film-room-post-combine-top-five-big-receivers-rankings/

Pretty good read for those that have a subscription to The Athletic. If you don't, I'm happy to post some snippets on request. The author, Ted Nguyen, is a film junkie that generally focuses on the Raiders but in this case, took a look at the WR draft class. For this article, he focused on his top 5 "big" WRs, basically guys that he expects to play on the outside in the NFL.

 

WRs that he provided scouting reports on (ranked in order from best to worst):

 

Outside WRs:

1. Hakeem Butler - Top 10 pick

2. DK Metcalf - Top 15 pick

3. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - 2nd rounder

4. Miles Boykin - 2nd-3rd rounder

5. N'Keal Harry - 2nd-3rd rounder

 

Edited March 7, 2019 by DCOrange

[Solomon Grundy]

21 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m probably in the minority but I would kinda hate the Metcalf pick.  Injuries, lack of production, blowing up because of a combine, and not even being a number 1 on his college team terrifies me.

 

Maybe it all comes together in the Nfl.  But he seems like a really risky pick at 9. 

Can't disregard the bloodlines

[GunnerBill]

If we trade for AB do we close this down.... or????

 

Put it this way it would certainly reflect on what the Bills think of the rookie receiver class. They don't think there is anyone who can come in and be an immediate impact guy.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

If we trade for AB do we close this down.... or????

 

Put it this way it would certainly reflect on what the Bills think of the rookie receiver class. They don't think there is anyone who can come in and be an immediate impact guy.

 

I don't think that's really true to be honest. Buffalo needs multiple impact WRs this offseason and Brown was one option for a relatively cheap acquisition (in terms of what they give up). It would have allowed them to focus on other positions first and circle back to a WR in the 3rd-4th round range. Now they're back in desperation mode again.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, DCOrange said:

 

I don't think that's really true to be honest. Buffalo needs multiple impact WRs this offseason and Brown was one option for a relatively cheap acquisition (in terms of what they give up). It would have allowed them to focus on other positions first and circle back to a WR in the 3rd-4th round range. Now they're back in desperation mode again.

 

If the Bills thought there was a genuine immediate #1 receiver in the draft they wouldn't be planning to trade for one. There isn't. And they know it. There are some decent prospects but nobody to take at #9 who is going to change the offense.

[PaattMaann]

On 3/7/2019 at 8:53 AM, DCOrange said:

He was already being mocked around the top 10-15 prior to the combine, with a few people pegging him as the Bills' pick. Seems like after the combine, people don't really expect him to make it to 9, but if he does, then that's basically where people had always expected him to go.

 

I think the main argument against drafting him (outside of the injuries which the Bills will obviously know far more about than any of us) is the fact that the WR class is so deep. Even if Metcalf is a better prospect than all the other WRs (which I think he is), you could pretty strongly argue that it's a better value play to just wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to get a WR while addressing other position/s in the first round or two.

 

As far as production goes, he basically checked that box already. He was a significant player for Ole Miss before he had even turned 20 years old, which is generally a very good sign for a WR prospect. In his final year, he was on pace for roughly 1,275 yards and 11 TDs before he got injured. At that point, AJ Brown was projected to have like 50 more yards but "only" 8 TDs (which is still good), so they were basically neck and neck in terms of production despite the fact that as the underneath option, AJ received far more targets.

 

Based on Metcalf's skillset, I think he could be utilized more in the NFL than he was in college, but I also think the basic framework of the Ole Miss offense (despite it being pretty rudimentary) is more or less what Buffalo could go for and would be highly valuable to have. Ole Miss basically sent Metcalf and DeMarkus Lodge deep every play while AJ worked underneath. This basically forced defenses to play two safeties deep because Metcalf and Lodge were so dominant down the field, thus opening up a ton of space for their run game and AJ's short range passes to be effective. It's not hard to picture the Bills doing the same with Robert Foster and Metcalf going deep all the time and opening things up for whoever their slot WR or TE ends up being, not to mention the run game as well as Allen's run game specifically. Metcalf has the potential to turn into the go-to guy for an offense, but in the very least, his size and athleticism opposite Foster would be a huge game changer for the offense IMO.

 

How does his LACK of production check the box for production? He literally has done nothing in his college career. I don't care if its because it was a bad offense, or his injuries, or him only running three different routes. Local beat reporters in Buffalo have done more in college than him. Hard pass on Metcalf, workout warrior, cool. Show me on the field, he has not. 

[DCOrange]

9 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

How does his LACK of production check the box for production? He literally has done nothing in his college career. I don't care if its because it was a bad offense, or his injuries, or him only running three different routes. Local beat reporters in Buffalo have done more in college than him. Hard pass on Metcalf, workout warrior, cool. Show me on the field, he has not. 

 

Metcalf was pretty productive before he had even turned 20 with 646 yards and 7 TDs as a redshirt freshman (the equivalent of an 860 yard/9 TD season in the NFL). His dominator rating (his proportion of yards/TDs compared to the team as a whole) was over 20%, which is considered the "breakout" point. His breakout age lines up with Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and Josh Gordon. His final year, he was on pace for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs prior to his injury, which would have basically been on par with Calvin Johnson's final season and better than both Julio and Gordon. His overall dominator rating pales in comparison to Calvin (which might be the highest dominator rating ever), but it's in line with Julio and exceeds Josh Gordon. These are generally some of the best indicators of success in the NFL and he has checked all of those boxes.

 

You can see how he compares to the rest of the draft class below:

[PaattMaann]

14 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Metcalf was pretty productive before he had even turned 20 with 646 yards and 7 TDs as a redshirt freshman (the equivalent of an 860 yard/9 TD season in the NFL). His dominator rating (his proportion of yards/TDs compared to the team as a whole) was over 20%, which is considered the "breakout" point. His breakout age lines up with Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and Josh Gordon. His final year, he was on pace for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs prior to his injury, which would have basically been on par with Calvin Johnson's final season and better than both Julio and Gordon. His overall dominator rating pales in comparison to Calvin (which might be the highest dominator rating ever), but it's in line with Julio and exceeds Josh Gordon. These are generally some of the best indicators of success in the NFL and he has checked all of those boxes.

 

You can see how he compares to the rest of the draft class below:

 

what his stats tell me is that he can run a fly route and get behind defenses...cool. Hasn't ever caught even 40 balls in a season? Always injured? No short burst agility? Passssssssssssssss

[DCOrange]

18 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

what his stats tell me is that he can run a fly route and get behind defenses...cool. Hasn't ever caught even 40 balls in a season? Always injured? No short burst agility? Passssssssssssssss

That's totally fair to not want him for those reasons, though I think he has far more agility than his combine tests where he slipped would suggest. He was definitely utilized as basically a two trick pony in college though, either running fly routes or comeback routes.

Edited March 8, 2019 by DCOrange

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If the Bills thought there was a genuine immediate #1 receiver in the draft they wouldn't be planning to trade for one. There isn't. And they know it. There are some decent prospects but nobody to take at #9 who is going to change the offense.

The key word is "immediate". Yes, AB was that "immediate" #1 receiver the Bills are looking for, but I'm sure the Giants didn't think OBJ was going to immediately contribute. Let the process continue