The Draft Network's Jon Ledyard Eviscerates Allen’s Week 2 Performance

[TwistofFate]

Allen is not my choice. 

 

Mahomes last year, Rosen this year...both were available to us. 

 

We've already seen how Mahomes has started thus far, now I await the Rosen start which is coming soon. 

 

Allen was a huge project pick, not one that you jump up the board and waste multiple picks to acquire.  That type of move is made to secure a day one starter. 

[GoBills!]

17 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Allen is not my choice. 

 

Mahomes last year, Rosen this year...both were available to us. 

 

We've already seen how Mahomes has started thus far, now I await the Rosen start which is coming soon. 

 

Allen was a huge project pick, not one that you jump up the board and waste multiple picks to acquire.  That type of move is made to secure a day one starter. 

 I was hoping for Watson last time around, and anyone but Josh this time. I feel josh's ceiling is Cutler, which isn't exactly a Superbowl QB but good enough for you to waste 5-7 years on hoping he can be. 

[GunnerBill]

20 hours ago, MJS said:

PFF disagrees with him. Allen was our highest rated player according to them. So who knows who is right?

 

Actually that was after week 1. When I originally posted it the week 2 grading wasn't complete (my bad). DC Orange updated with the right grades after week 2 yesterday and Allen slumped significantly. 

6 hours ago, Rob's House said:

People are awfully quick to assess this guy's ability. After watching the all-22 I was a little discouraged, but it's one game.

 

He did miss some open receivers, and his passes weren't pretty, but overall the receivers weren't doing a good job of getting open and he couldn't have much confidence in his protection holding up, which may have caused him to rush his throws. He didn't get much support from the running game either.

 

If he looks like this in week 10 I'll be concerned, but for now I'm going to sit back and hope for the best.

 

Yep. There was some good, some bad... about par for a rookie making his first start. The sky is not falling yet. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I respect your opinion and wish I had more of it.  But there’s a reason why 6’5” guys with rocket arms aren’t getting heavily recruited.   I don’t know if you can survive in the nfl being this inaccurate.  And this team isn’t helping him.  Why couldn’t we get him on the Mahomes plan?

 

But 6'5" guys with rocket arms have been heavily recruited. 

 

Well, guys 6'4" or taller.  It's basically why Blaine Gabbert, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, and Christian Hackenberg got recruited where they did, well ahead of guys with arguably better football skills. 

 

Because that's a cringe-worthy group of draftee QB, and because of the success of relatively short QB such as Drew Brees, Russ Wilson, and Tyrod Taylor (yes, Taylor), there's now a movement to focus on analytics above physical traits.

 

I think the reality is probably somewhere in-between, and the real issue for taking the next step is having a "football brain", which is predicted neither by analytics of college performance, nor by whiteboard and meeting room knowledge, but by the ability to take that knowledge and translate it to what is seen on the field and what that means for the play just called in fractions of a second, and by "heart".

 

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Allen is not my choice. 

Mahomes last year, Rosen this year...both were available to us. 

We've already seen how Mahomes has started thus far, now I await the Rosen start which is coming soon. 

Allen was a huge project pick, not one that you jump up the board and waste multiple picks to acquire.  That type of move is made to secure a day one starter. 

 

Aren't you kind of contradicting yourself? 

Mahomes was not a "day 1 starter".  They sat him for a year.  And KC jumped up the board and used multiple picks for him.

 

[dickleyjones]

7 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Allen was terrible. His timing is so far off right now. His eyes are slower than his feet. He isn't seeing the field. That scares me. Hopefully the game will slow down for him. Just have to let him play to find out. Might not be until next season.

 

terrible is maybe a little too far, but you are correct. allen even said it himself after the Cinci game "faster than i expected". almost every throw was behind. practice should slow things down for him and then we will see what he can do.

[Wayne Arnold]

13 hours ago, Doc said:

AJM’s play in preseason was poor. And has anyone said that he was a mentor to Josh?

 

Why didn’t they consider Fitzpatrick? He was a free agent while he was in Buffalo doing the Freddy roast.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Why didn’t they consider Fitzpatrick? He was a free agent while he was in Buffalo doing the Freddy roast.

 

Fitz re-signed with the Bucs before Free Agency started. 

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Fitz re-signed with the Bucs before Free Agency started. 

 

That sneaky bastard.

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Fitz re-signed with the Bucs before Free Agency started. 

 

Yea just before. He was on my list of guys to target. Coulda done some illegal tampering while he was here. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, dickleyjones said:

 

terrible is maybe a little too far, but you are correct. allen even said it himself after the Cinci game "faster than i expected". almost every throw was behind. practice should slow things down for him and then we will see what he can do.

 

This kind of "hot take" really frustrates me.

 

Let's look at the Bills 1st 2 series on O because context matters.  Work with me here, I'm really after the 3D play of the 2nd drive, which was thrown behind the receiver.

 

1D: run 2D: run 3D: sack.  I think that one's on the OL (though it may be a protection call).  Allen has Shady out to the left, but he's looking for the 1st down marker as he should be.  Miller is twiddling his thumbs over by Groy (why it may be a protection issue) and takes a crap angle on blitzing Derwin James (33), letting him blow on by

Groy and Ducasse are successfully blocking Philon and Dawkins has Nwosa.

Allen sidesteps L to avoid James and decides to head for open field, putting him where Nwosa can shift L, beat Dawkins and sack him.

This is all about 1 second post snap.  No one else is open.  I can't fault Allen for not trying to hit Shady with James in his face - that's how bad things happen.  But he did have a chance at Shady I think if he pulled the trigger faster.

Punt

 

1D: Pass to Shady in the backfield.  Ingram beats Dawkins but Allen has 2 seconds and gets it off to Shady.  Look at his hips, look at his shoulders.  You can tell his feet are in the right position, and it's a nice throw - arrives just ahead of Shady at the level of his numbers.  This is the kind of throw Allen struggled with at Wyo and this spring, and it's pretty.  Boo Yah.  If KB could block like a 6'5" 245 lb guy, Shady could have made some yards.

2D: Sack.  Allen fakes the handoff to Shady and is hit by James just as he starts to look downfield.  James followed Logan Thomas across the field as though he were covering him, but then blitzed instead of covering, catching Thomas with his pants down as Thomas starts to release.

 

So at this point, having more than 2 firing neurons, Allen's got the flick that he's not gonna get much time and he better get the ball out quick.

 

Here's Allen and Benjamin at the point where Allen brings the ball back to throw.  He's being rushed because, pressure - Ingram is beating Dawkins.  Benjamin is not very far along his route and has no separation yet.  Look at Allen's L foot.  It's pointing downfield, it's not aligned with his hips and shoulders and that doesn't change as he throws.  Problem.  Bigger problem: he's throwing early, Benjamin is still all wrapped up only 5 yds past the LOS, and Allen has to guess where to put the ball.  He puts it past the 1D marker (remember, last week Benjamin wasn't making it to the marker)  Meanwhile, Benjamin breaks free and heads downfield, wondering why it's suddenly so easy (that would be 'cuz the DB has better ball-sense and is turning around while Benjamin is still running his route, even though Benjamin is clearly the primary target. Or maybe the DB gets a "Ball!" call)

I couldn't find a screen shot where it's easy to see the ball - it's aimed at about the 38 yd line - but you can see that the DB is turning for the ball and KB is still running.

 

What's my point in all this? 

The "hot take" is "Allen is inaccurate throwing downfield, almost every throw was behind".  Is that part of it?  Sure, you can see the throw won't be pin-point from his left foot before he throws it.

 

Is that the whole story?  No it's not.  Ingram is beating Dawkins like a drum.  Allen knows he's got to hurry, he's already been nailed 2 times on 3 throws.  He's throwing to a WR with whom he has had minimal practice time.  (To be fair to Benjamin, he may be being coached "just run your route, finish your route" and doing what he's told but I still see inconsistent routes.)

 

My biggest fear starting Allen behind a questionable OL is that he will lack the chance to solidify his footwork and the sloppy feet will be drilled into him permanently.

 

Meanwhile, for the last 3 years our big beef was having a QB who wouldn't throw with anticipation but would only throw after the WR came open.  That's clearly gone.

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This kind of "hot take" really frustrates me.

 

Let's look at the Bills 1st 2 series on O because context matters.  Work with me here, I'm really after the 3D play of the 2nd drive, which was thrown behind the receiver.

 

1D: run 2D: run 3D: sack.  I think that one's on the OL (though it may be a protection call).  Allen has Shady out to the left, but he's looking for the 1st down marker as he should be.  Miller is twiddling his thumbs over by Groy (why it may be a protection issue) and takes a crap angle on blitzing Derwin James (33), letting him blow on by

Groy and Ducasse are successfully blocking Philon and Dawkins has Nwosa.

Allen sidesteps L to avoid James and decides to head for open field, putting him where Nwosa can shift L, beat Dawkins and sack him.

This is all about 1 second post snap.  No one else is open.  I can't fault Allen for not trying to hit Shady with James in his face - that's how bad things happen.  But he did have a chance at Shady I think if he pulled the trigger faster.

Punt

 

1D: Pass to Shady in the backfield.  Ingram beats Dawkins but Allen has 2 seconds and gets it off to Shady.  Look at his hips, look at his shoulders.  You can tell his feet are in the right position, and it's a nice throw - arrives just ahead of Shady at the level of his numbers.  This is the kind of throw Allen struggled with at Wyo and this spring, and it's pretty.  Boo Yah.  If KB could block like a 6'5" 245 lb guy, Shady could have made some yards.

2D: Sack.  Allen fakes the handoff to Shady and is hit by James just as he starts to look downfield.  James followed Logan Thomas across the field as though he were covering him, but then blitzed instead of covering, catching Thomas with his pants down as Thomas starts to release.

 

So at this point, having more than 2 firing neurons, Allen's got the flick that he's not gonna get much time and he better get the ball out quick.

 

Here's Allen and Benjamin at the point where Allen brings the ball back to throw.  He's being rushed because, pressure - Ingram is beating Dawkins.  Benjamin is not very far along his route and has no separation yet.  Look at Allen's L foot.  It's pointing downfield, it's not aligned with his hips and shoulders and that doesn't change as he throws.  Problem.  Bigger problem: he's throwing early, Benjamin is still all wrapped up only 5 yds past the LOS, and Allen has to guess where to put the ball.  He puts it past the 1D marker (remember, last week Benjamin wasn't making it to the marker)  Meanwhile, Benjamin breaks free and heads downfield, wondering why it's suddenly so easy (that would be 'cuz the DB has better ball-sense and is turning around while Benjamin is still running his route, even though Benjamin is clearly the primary target. Or maybe the DB gets a "Ball!" call)

I couldn't find a screen shot where it's easy to see the ball - it's aimed at about the 38 yd line - but you can see that the DB is turning for the ball and KB is still running.

 

What's my point in all this? 

The "hot take" is "Allen is inaccurate throwing downfield, almost every throw was behind".  Is that part of it?  Sure, you can see the throw won't be pin-point from his left foot before he throws it.

 

Is that the whole story?  No it's not.  Ingram is beating Dawkins like a drum.  Allen knows he's got to hurry, he's already been nailed 2 times on 3 throws.  He's throwing to a WR with whom he has had minimal practice time.  (To be fair to Benjamin, he may be being coached "just run your route, finish your route" and doing what he's told but I still see inconsistent routes.)

 

My biggest fear starting Allen behind a questionable OL is that he will lack the chance to solidify his footwork and the sloppy feet will be drilled into him permanently.

 

Meanwhile, for the last 3 years our big beef was having a QB who wouldn't throw with anticipation but would only throw after the WR came open.  That's clearly gone.

 

The first play there is defintely a protection call issue. They didn't identify the blitz pre draft so Miller still comes inside for the double team with Groy and is out of position when James comes upfield. As soon as Allen sees James is blitzing there he should get to his checkdown. 

 

Not a huge issue for a 1st start. They are the kind of things we knew he had to work on but that to me is how that play went and should have gone. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The first play there is defintely a protection call issue. They didn't identify the blitz pre draftsnap so Miller still comes inside for the double team with Groy and is out of position when James comes upfield. As soon as Allen sees James is blitzing there he should get to his checkdown. 

 

Not a huge issue for a 1st start. They are the kind of things we knew he had to work on but that to me is how that play went and should have gone. 

 

Yeah, I hear you, but at the same time - there was something in James body language pre snap that said to me "He's coming!".   

At some point, it seems to me, an NFL lineman has got to say "know that's the call, gotta get THIS guy"

 

PS I think pre-draft vs pre-snap is a Freudian slip by you.  You're thinking "they didn't identify someone who could pick up the blitz pre draft ?

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, I hear you, but at the same time - there was something in James body language pre snap that said to me "He's coming!".   

At some point, it seems to me, an NFL lineman has got to say "know that's the call, gotta get THIS guy"

 

PS I think pre-draft vs pre-snap is a Freudian slip by you.  You're thinking "they didn't identify someone who could pick up the blitz pre draft ?

 

It is. Well picked up Hapless. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is. Well picked up Hapless. 

 

Hapless can pick up the blitz on paper ?

 

Here's Exhibit B on the shallowness of the "every throw was behind" or "Allen hasn't demonstrated his supposed strength, throwing downfield" narrative

This is the 9th play of the 3rd drive.  1st and 10.  Allen has already been flushed out 2x, thrown inaccurately on the run (though Murphy should have had that I think) and overthrown while being hit as he threw, so you might think he could be a bit rattled and looking for the sure bet.

 

Allen has protection and time.  Look at Allen's feet and hips just before he uncorks to Clay who is wide open crossing about the LA 24.  You can tell that throw will arrive just fine.  And it does - hits Clay right in the breadbasket near the sideline on the 21. 

Allen is also passing up 2 open guys on 40, so despite being hurried and banged around earlier in the drdive, he is no "checkdown charlie" (appropriate on 1st down).

Here the ball is that speck on the 35 yd line, and you can tell by Clay's arms and posture that he expects it to hit him in the hands centered on his chest, and it does.

Nice throw.

 

Bottom line: Allen is def. a work in progress.  But when he has time, he's throwing accurately and with anticipation, including nice chunks of yardage downfield.

As for Ledyard, to call Allen "utterly awful" and "brutally bad in a myriad of ways" then claim he's (Ledyard is) "100% accurate" and not suffering from confirmation bias, is just laughable.

 

[CLTbills]

Who the hell is Jon Ledyard?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

Who the hell is Jon Ledyard?

 

Analytics guy.  Works for "The Draft Network". 

Graded Allen out as a Day 2 Guy and made some hyperbolic statements post-draft that he now must continue to justify.

[CLTbills]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Analytics guy.  Works for "The Draft Network". 

Graded Allen out as a Day 2 Guy and made some hyperbolic statements post-draft that he now must continue to justify.

lol, I know. It's just that.... what are this guys "qualifications" to make these assessments? Has this guy ever played football? Has he played it even at the collegiate level? I get tired of all the "experts" that have never played football a day in their lives trying to be "draft analysts"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

lol, I know. It's just that.... what are this guys "qualifications" to make these assessments? Has this guy ever played football? Has he played it even at the collegiate level? I get tired of all the "experts" that have never played football a day in their lives trying to be "draft analysts"

 

Per their website, he coaches HS football so he's probably played a day or two.  What position he's played and how well he's equipped to assess a QB, is another question.

 

Someone who hasn't played football can study the game and watch film and develop some insight, so I can't dis off someone on those criteria alone.  But you're right it's a problem.  Fundamentally, anyone can develop a platform, hang out their shingle as an expert, and wind up being given mainstream media airplay (Ledyard was on Shoop and the Bulldog).  The difference between success and failure there, is not expertise, but ability to generate clicks and attract followers, which is more easily done if one has outrageous takes that generate controversy, than if one has a balanced take and a nuanced analysis.  That's the problem.

[GoBills808]

11 hours ago, Rob's House said:

People are awfully quick to assess this guy's ability. After watching the all-22 I was a little discouraged, but it's one game.

 

He did miss some open receivers, and his passes weren't pretty, but overall the receivers weren't doing a good job of getting open and he couldn't have much confidence in his protection holding up, which may have caused him to rush his throws. He didn't get much support from the running game either.

 

If he looks like this in week 10 I'll be concerned, but for now I'm going to sit back and hope for the best.

Agree w/ this, although for me I don't care if Allen goes the whole year looking like a rookie. Next year will be when I expect to see dramatic improvement.

[John from Riverside]

18 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair enough.  I don’t think the difference is that big between those teams (SJ=Benjamin, Woods and Zay both 2nd rounders, Clay > EJ’s TE, McCoy, etc)

We are gonna have to disagree on that I would take a young Stevie Johnson over any of these soft kitties