McBeane's Gambit

[nedboy7]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Making the mistake of signing Vontae Davis for $5 million is not a "horrible" FA signing. Don't you guys pay attention to the rest of the league? The Patriots paid Gillislee $4 million last year and he didn't start most of their games. I remember all the salary cap geniuses around here that thought we should have kept him. Low level free agent signings are going to be hit or miss. Our big signings last year were Poyer and Hyde - I would say those worked out pretty well. Lotulelei is doing exactly what he's supposed to, taking up blockers and letting the LBs roam free. Trent Murphy has been injured. We turned McCarron into a free 5th round pick. Are those the horrible FA signings you're talking about? How about the draft because I think we've nailed 5 out of our last 6 picks in rounds 1-3. That's where GMs make their money.

 

Sorry not buying it.  Just imagine the RB situation last year if Shady had gotten hurt.  Murphy was injured when they signed him.  There are some really weird decisions being made.  And you really cant compare us to the Pats.  Ever.  The Bills have picked well in the draft overall.  They better hit on 20 players next year. 

Edited September 11, 2018 by nedboy7

[Batman1876]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

Tyrod restructured a short term deal paying him average starter money and Watkins was on his rookie deal.  Flat out wrong.  Watching this offensive line, its hard to say a real NFL tackle was "expendable".  Why is Clay still here if Beanius is crushing it? 

We saved 10 mil trading Tyrod. Watkins deal was up last season so in order to hold onto him we would have needed to resign him. Clay is still here because I assume no one wanted him. He’s likely to be gone next year. Cordy was expendable as an LT and his trade made getting Allen and Edmunds a possibility.

[BuffaloRush]

3 hours ago, teef said:

the bills played solid last year considering all things.  the opener was a stinker, but this year, along with the off season needs to play out.  anyone truly calling for this staff to be fired now, (and i can't imagine they're being serious) needs to be sterilized so they can't reproduce.  

 

For a dude with a muppet as your avatar you are really making a lot of sense!

[Jauronimo]

17 minutes ago, K-9 said:

"McBeane's Gambit". Sounds like a chapter title and con game from 'The Sting.'

Its a controversial opening in tournament Chess where you replace all your rooks, bishops, and knights with pawns and save your queen for the next match.

[Batman1876]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The Bills have over $85 million in cap space next offseason. Like I said, they'd be in fine shape even with all those contracts. 

 

So more old guys and fewer young guys. That’s an opinion. Build the Team around Tyrod, Cordy, Sammy and Darius and try to do better than you did with that core the first time around. 

[Jauronimo]

3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

We saved 10 mil trading Tyrod. Watkins deal was up last season so in order to hold onto him we would have needed to resign him. Clay is still here because I assume no one wanted him. He’s likely to be gone next year. Cordy was expendable as an LT and his trade made getting Allen and Edmunds a possibility.

And spent it on Coleman, Vontae and a few guys selling Hyundais.

[Batman1876]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

Its a controversial opening in tournament Chess where you replace all your rooks, bishops, and knights with pawns and save your queen for the next match.

How well did we do with those pieces the first go around? 

Just now, Jauronimo said:

And spent it on Coleman, Vontae and a few guys selling Hyundais.

We did not spend 26 mil on those guys. 

[BuffaloRush]

3 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

Good post indeed.

 

There will always be people questioning the trades - did we get enough return?  Part of trades was getting rid of "bad contracts", or "did not match the scheme",  or getting rid of players that could not be counted on for health reasons. 

 

Allen and Edmunds are key and  Beane will need to hit on his draft picks.  Now that he cleaned up the cap and the dead money clears next season he will need to be very smart with the cap space.

 

 

 

The other thing that people seem to be overlooking is the roster/cap situation of the team that Beane inherited.  They were very top heavy as Whaley heavily invested a lot of money in starters, and never had to pay a QB a big contract.  As a result guys like Marcel Dareus, Cordy Glenn, Jerry Hughes, and Charles Clay all had huge deals.  Behind them was very little depth.  The "win now" mentality of Whaley would go on to hurt this team.  Rather than try to emulate his cap strategy, Beane had different ideas.  I give him credit.  The Bills needed to fumigate the stink left from Whaley and Buddance Nix

[stony]

1 minute ago, Batman1876 said:

So more old guys and fewer young guys. That’s an opinion. Build the Team around Tyrod, Cordy, Sammy and Darius and try to do better than you did with that core the first time around. 

You're hung up on Tyrod getting average starter pay and comparing it to the $6 million we have tied up in the position now.  Same with Cordy.  Above average play with a decent deal.  Sammy was a sunk cost at that point to me, but at least we have a 2nd to show for it.  No argument there.  Lets not discuss trading a cost controlled Darby for a ziplock full of poop.   

[donbb]

Still a long way to go this season but my biggest issue is how they spent in FA this past season. It gives me a lot of pause when they sign a DT graded as one of the worst in the league last year to a huge contract. It gives me pause when they sign an aging running back to a multi-year deal worth millions. It gives me pause when they let last years starting CB go and pay twice as much as he was paid for an aging vet in Vontae Davis. It gives me pause when they give big money to an oft-injured DE with PED history.

 

These signings were supposed to allow the team to focus on the offense next off-season. If Murphy & Star do not pan out (good chance there) the entire defensive line (sans Hughes if McBeane doesn't cut/trade him) and a starting CB position will have to be revamped as well in 2019.

Edited September 11, 2018 by donbb

[Batman1876]

1 minute ago, stony said:

You're hung up on Tyrod getting average starter pay and comparing it to the $6 million we have tied up in the position now.  Same with Cordy.  Above average play with a decent deal.  Sammy was a sunk cost at that point to me, but at least we have a 2nd to show for it.  No argument there.  Lets not discuss trading a cost controlled Darby for a ziplock full of poop.   

I’m not hung up on their pay. I’m simply pointing out that keeping them on the roster makes it hard to fill out the roster. We had 30 mil before trading them 10 to sign rookies, 10 for needs that arise during the season and 10 to sign enough guys to have a 53 man roster. 

2 minutes ago, donbb said:

Still a long way to go this season but my biggest issue is how they spent in FA this past season. It gives me a lot of pause when they sign a DT graded as one of the worst in the league last year to a huge contract. It gives me pause when they sign an aging running back to a multi-year deal worth millions. It gives me pause when they let last years starting CB go and pay twice as much as he was paid for an aging vet in Vontae Davis. It gives me pause when they give big money to an oft-injured DE with PED history.

 

These signings were supposed to allow the team to focus on the offense next off-season. If Murphy & Star do not pan out (good chance there) the entire defensive line (sans Hughes if McBeane doesn't cut/trade him) and a starting CB position will have to be revamped as well in 2019.

Trent and Star got huge deals? Combined they are only 1/17th of the cap. 

[Domdab99]

4 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

Here's the thing, with this draft this year McBeane had a once-in-what (20-year?) opportunity to build the core of their team.  '

 

They originally had 6 draft picks in the first three rounds, the 96th of which (last pick in the 3rd) on Phillips.  

 

That means that the other five picks, mid-1st to 3rd/65th (1st pick in the 3rd) that they used on Allen & Edmunds.  Edmunds could have been gotten with the 12th pick meaning that in essence Allen cost the organization the other four picks.  

 

Regardless of what thinks of Allen, or whether he does/doesn't work out, building a team in that way signifies a GM/HC that are novice/kid-in-a-candy-shop/OJT.  

 

They could have built the OL in order to build a foundation, for any QB.  Any.  Instead, they opted for the far riskier "their guy" option.  Well this just in, they could have Rodgers back there and he'd be operating at a fraction of what he's capable of due to the lack of a quality team around him.  Does McBeane really need to have this explained to them?  I don't know, maybe they do.  

 

It's not the method that I would have chosen and not a method from whence championship play/teams comes from.  But it's what they chose which IMO speaks volumes.  

 

Some are talking about 10 picks in next year's draft, but the team only has one pick each in rounds 1-3.  Teams aren't built oni 4th-7th rounders in that way.  The opportunity to have lain a foundation in spades was this Draft, and they opted not to.  

 

They aren't going to have 5 or 6 seasons to prove that they've OJT'd themselves into competence.  They're going to sink or swim now on Allen.  I'm not sure I'd want my future career hinging on a QB that has no OL, no WRs, a RB with one foot out-the-door, an overrated defense, and no reasonably possible way to build all of that within two more seasons given how they squandered their opportunity this year.  

 

Their "gambit" is Allen.  But only a fool would wager everything on a QB w/o really any of the core pieces in place otherwise in order to build a winning team.  

 

The on top of that, signing players like Lotolelei to enormous contract when not one metrics site had him rated as anything other than below-average, and why, because McBeane come from Carolina and they know better than everyone else?  

 

Fumigating the place from Whaley is necessary, but the moves they're making are hardly career-endorsing moves.  Like all GMs/HCs, they'll have three seasons to "prove themselves."  I have absolutely no idea how putting the pieces in place, particularly with the bar of a playoff "appearance" now being the backdrop, is even possible.  

 

The fans and media are already getting impatient as the buffoonery continues.  This isn't going to end well for them despite how well Allen turns out.  And frankly, it's fine that Allen's "their guy," but unless he turns out to be everything they claim he is, then given their other moves, they're not good coach & GM, because the rest of their moves collectively are below-average.  

 

I'm sorry, but this is a bad post. You don't know who they would've been able to draft or if those players would work out. They decided to get their QB first, build around him after, So what? They obviously feel Allen was worth the picks. 

3 hours ago, Clemfield2622 said:

obviously hindsight is 20/20 but passing on a QB last year let to this avalanche of blowing draft picks.

 

If they had just taken Watson or Mahomes last year, they wouldn't have gotten Tre and an extra 1, but they would have their starting QB this year. 

 

The trade up for Dawkins didn't costs much, 2 5th's

 

The trade up for Zay cost a 3rd to move 7 spots. That could have been starting quality player. JuJu went #62...

 

So fast forward to this year. Say the Bills still do the Glenn trade, they have pick 12. They take Edmunds there. 

 

This allows them to keep 53, 56 and 65. That could have been 3 more big time impact players. 

 

They botched that pile of picks so badly...

 

I don't agree. Although, I do hope they stop trading up so much. 

 

Like you said, hindsight is 20/20 - maybe Zay gets better, maybe not...but no one was saying Juju was going to be a star before the draft, right? 

Watson is an unknown so far. He really doesn't look that great. Mahomes has had one great game. Let's give it a few years before we for sure claim a trade was bad or good, ok?

 

I'd rather have our QB in place than stocking a team with other talent and then having...Trent Edwards, or Ryan Fitzpatrick, or EJ Manuel, or tyrod Taylor as our QB. We've seen how far that gets you. 

 

You need the franchise QB. We've finally got a guy that has a real chance of becoming one. The last one we had was Jim Kelly - there was no one saying any other QB after him would be anything but a half-decent starter. 

[Batman1876]

6 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

I'm sorry, but this is a bad post. You don't know who they would've been able to draft or if those players would work out. They decided to get their QB first, build around him after, So what? They obviously feel Allen was worth the picks. 

Never pass up an opportunity to draft an elites prospect you like.  There is no guarantee that you’ll be in position to draft one the next year. The bills went over a decade without getting an opportunity to. 

[Domdab99]

And saying Zay is a bust is just not fair. He's played one year! Give him some time to grow. 

2 hours ago, BrooklynBills said:

Bodine - basically a 1 yr deal

Murphy - basically a two year deal but they can get out easy after this year if they want

Davis - 1 year deal

Gaines - 1 year deal

Newhouse - 1 year deal

Kerley - 1 year deal

 

Don't see how they are worth complaining about.

 

I have problems with some of what these guys have done but so far cap management is not one of them.

 

The plan is pretty clear IMO. They went scorched Earth with cap and used attitude and not buying in as an excuse. 

 

The are going to use the cap rollover loophole to build perpetual cap space moving forward just like the jags have recently done to build most of my their defense and OL. It is what the 49ers are currently doing.

 

 

This.

 

These guys are place-holders, that's it. Yeah, they suck, and THAT sucks. But what were we going to do? Play a 5th round pick right off the bat? You think Teller is going to be better than Miller or Ducasse right now? How about one of the other young guys, like Connor McD? Although, at this point, I don't see what it could hurt to give one of them a shot lol. 

 

This is the gambit, yes...but they are playing for the long run. I just hope they know what they're doing. With a top 3 pick next year, I'm hoping Beane finally trades DOWN and picks up some picks we can use on OL and WR...unless you just can't pass up on Bosa or Oliver. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, KD in CA said:

 

The real question is, what is the commitment to that group beyond 2018?   

 

Trent Murphy has a 3 year contract but it’s a relatively minor $3.5M cap hit

Star Lotuleilie is 5 year, $50m with ~half guaranteed, meaning we owe him a lot of dead money if he’s cut before 2021 and even then, $5.2M

[stony]

15 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

And saying Zay is a bust is just not fair. He's played one year! Give him some time to grow. 

 

This.

 

These guys are place-holders, that's it. Yeah, they suck, and THAT sucks. But what were we going to do? Play a 5th round pick right off the bat? You think Teller is going to be better than Miller or Ducasse right now? How about one of the other young guys, like Connor McD? Although, at this point, I don't see what it could hurt to give one of them a shot lol. 

 

This is the gambit, yes...but they are playing for the long run. I just hope they know what they're doing. With a top 3 pick next year, I'm hoping Beane finally trades DOWN and picks up some picks we can use on OL and WR...unless you just can't pass up on Bosa or Oliver. 

If you want to copy the Seahawks or Rams approach, two that seem to get a lot of respect around here, the key to building a winner is doing it before your QB wants/deserves $30 million per year.  Its why I don't necessarily buy into burning years off his rookie contract.

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

And saying Zay is a bust is just not fair. He's played one year! Give him some time to grow. 

 

Eh this has been said about a ton of Bills players over the past 20 years. I can't remember a single one that suddenly became good. But that's what I mean, all their other top draft choices look like they belong in the NFL. We don't have to make excuses for White, Dawkins, Allen, Edmunds, or Phillips. Of course any one of them could still turn out to be a bust, most of all Allen, but it isn't like other regimes where we spent entire offseasons arguing about rookies looking terrible. Zay Jones is their only pick out of 6 that looks like he doesn't belong on the field.

[Domdab99]

6 minutes ago, stony said:

If you want to copy the Seahawks or Rams approach, two that seem to get a lot of respect around here, the key to building a winner is doing it before your QB wants/deserves $30 million per year.  Its why I don't necessarily buy into burning years off his rookie contract.

 

That's a fair point.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

I feel like a lot of people miss the fact that the team could not keep their talent they had. The cap would not allow it. If we had kept Cordy, tyrod and Darius we would have had about 21 million less to spend in free agency. Sign Sammy for 16 million and that’s 37 million in cap for those 4 guys.  Now let’s look at the guys we signed Star gets 6.7, Trent 4.5, Davis 4.3, bodine 2.1 for a total of 17.6 million, 20 million less than we would have spent on the players we let go of add in Kelvin’s 8.5 and we still would have to find 11.5 million dollars, which means you have to sign league minimum guys to fill out your roster or cut other guys. Talent had to go, they opted to trade it over 12 months rather than let it trickle out the door over 2or 3years. 

 

Bull manure!  The Bills "could not keep their talent they had" because they never keep the talent they develop!  That's "the process" that the Bills have followed since the beginning of the salary cap,  although it became much worse since Russ Brandon took control of the team in 2006.  The Bills have been the NFL's farm team for the entire 21st century.  Among the notable players the Bills have sent packing rather than paying and who've gone on to become important starters on playoff teams are:

• Antowan Smith, RB, 1997 -- starter, 2001 NE Patriot Super Bowl champions
• Antoine Winfield, CB, 1999 - multiple Pro Bowls with Minnesota Vikings
• Nate Clements, CB, 2001 - Pro Bowler with Minnesota Vikings
• Willis McGahee, RB, 2003 - two time Pro Bowler with Baltimore and Denver
• Jabari Greer, CB, UDFA 2004 - starter with 2009 SB Champion New Orleans Saints
• Jason Peters, LT, UDFA 2005 - two time All Pro and nine time Pro Bowl LT with the Philadelphia Eagles
• Donte Whitner, SS, 2006 - two time Pro Bowler on San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns; started on 49ers in 2012 Super Bowl
• Marshawn  Lynch, RB, 2007 - two time All Pro RB with Seattle Seahawks, including the 2013 SB championship
• Paul Posluszny, MLB, 2007 - Pro Bowler, 7 year starter with Jacksonville Jaguars
• Jairus Byrd, FS, 2009 - starter with New Orleans Saints
• Andy Levitre, OG, 2009 - long time starter with 2016 SB runner-up Atlanta Falcons
• Nigel Bradham, LB, 2012 - starter with 2017 SB Champion Philadelphia Eagles
• Marcell Dareus, DT, 2011 - starter with 2017 AFC Conference Championship runner up Jacksonville Jaguars in 2018
• Chris Hogan, WR, UDFA 2011 by Miami, UFA signed to Bills PS in 2012 - starter for 2016 SB Champion NE Patriots
• Stephon Gilmore, CB, 2012 - Pro Bowler with Bills - starter for 2017 SB runner-up NE Patriots
• Cordy Glenn, LT, 2012 - starter with the Cincinnati Bengals
• Robert Woods, WR, 2013 - starter with LA Rams in 2017
• Marquise Goodwin, WR, 2013 - starter with SF 49ers in 2017
• Sammy Watkins, WR, 2014 - starter with LA Rams in 2017 and with KC Chiefs in 2018
• Preston Brown, MLB, 2014 - starter with the Cincinnati Bengals
• Ronald Darby, CB, 2015 - starter for 2017 SB Champion Philadelphia Eagles

I trust McDermott and Beane to continue this great Bills tradition since they made such an impressive start ...

 

 

[Fadingpain]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

Bull manure!  The Bills "could not keep their talent they had" because they never keep the talent they develop!  That's "the process" that the Bills have followed since the beginning of the salary cap,  although it became much worse since Russ Brandon took control of the team in 2006.  The Bills have been the NFL's farm team for the entire 21st century.  Among the notable players the Bills have sent packing rather than paying and who've gone on to become important starters on playoff teams are:

• Antowan Smith, RB, 1997 -- starter, 2001 NE Patriot Super Bowl champions
• Antoine Winfield, CB, 1999 - multiple Pro Bowls with Minnesota Vikings
• Nate Clements, CB, 2001 - Pro Bowler with Minnesota Vikings
• Willis McGahee, RB, 2003 - two time Pro Bowler with Baltimore and Denver
• Jabari Greer, CB, UDFA 2004 - starter with 2009 SB Champion New Orleans Saints
• Jason Peters, LT, UDFA 2005 - two time All Pro and nine time Pro Bowl LT with the Philadelphia Eagles
• Donte Whitner, SS, 2006 - two time Pro Bowler on San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns; started on 49ers in 2012 Super Bowl
• Marshawn  Lynch, RB, 2007 - two time All Pro RB with Seattle Seahawks, including the 2013 SB championship
• Paul Posluszny, MLB, 2007 - Pro Bowler, 7 year starter with Jacksonville Jaguars
• Jairus Byrd, FS, 2009 - starter with New Orleans Saints
• Andy Levitre, OG, 2009 - long time starter with 2016 SB runner-up Atlanta Falcons
• Nigel Bradham, LB, 2012 - starter with 2017 SB Champion Philadelphia Eagles
• Marcell Dareus, DT, 2011 - starter with 2017 AFC Conference Championship runner up Jacksonville Jaguars in 2018
• Chris Hogan, WR, UDFA 2011 by Miami, UFA signed to Bills PS in 2012 - starter for 2016 SB Champion NE Patriots
• Stephon Gilmore, CB, 2012 - Pro Bowler with Bills - starter for 2017 SB runner-up NE Patriots
• Cordy Glenn, LT, 2012 - starter with the Cincinnati Bengals
• Robert Woods, WR, 2013 - starter with LA Rams in 2017
• Marquise Goodwin, WR, 2013 - starter with SF 49ers in 2017
• Sammy Watkins, WR, 2014 - starter with LA Rams in 2017 and with KC Chiefs in 2018
• Preston Brown, MLB, 2014 - starter with the Cincinnati Bengals
• Ronald Darby, CB, 2015 - starter for 2017 SB Champion Philadelphia Eagles

I trust McDermott and Beane to continue this great Bills tradition since they made such an impressive start ...

 

 

A lot of that is from a bygone era, when Ralph Wilson owned the team.

 

You can't compare that to the Pegula era, at least as far as being cheap or not wanting to spend $$$ is concerned.