Kelly the Dog Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Commonsense said: Good news for the Bills, the line movement for the Eagles game is going to end up close to what the Bills/Ravens game will be. Ravens opened at -4/-4.5 and I’d guess by Sunday it will be 8/8.5. Bills won’t lose by more than 7. Eagles opened at -4.5 and it was bet down to even. Of course the Wentz announcement but that is not much different than announcing Nate P is starting. Vegas hardly ever takes a total loss on such a dramatic move. I would have thought anyone following football would have expected Wentz not to start and Peterman to start, before the annoucements, and especially Vegas.
Aussie Joe Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 Both offenses were ordinary tonight.. Ryan looked very Nate P like, but unfortunately there is no J Jones on the Bills team to bail him out..
CommonCents Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said: I would have thought anyone following football would have expected Wentz not to start and Peterman to start, before the annoucements, and especially Vegas. That’s the point I’m trying to make. If you glance at the spread movement, you say oh it moved from -4.5 to -8 because Nate was name starter. Oh it moved from -4.5 to even because Wentz is now out. It makes sense, if they didn’t know all along and totally screwed up the line, which of course they didn’t screw up. How many casual bettors will see the name Nate Peterman and lay up on the Ravens? A lot. The Bills may lose but it won’t be by more than whatever the line caps out at. My guess is they lose by 3-6 points, winning wouldn’t hurt either.
Kelly the Dog Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Commonsense said: That’s the point I’m trying to make. If you glance at the spread movement, you say oh it moved from -4.5 to -8 because Nate was name starter. Oh it moved from -4.5 to even because Wentz is now out. It makes sense, if they didn’t know all along and totally screwed up the line, which of course they didn’t screw up. How many casual bettors will see the name Nate Peterman and lay up on the Ravens? A lot. The Bills may lose but it won’t be by more than whatever the line caps out at. My guess is they lose by 3-6 points, winning wouldn’t hurt either. Gotcha. Totally agree. Although I think it's a longshot we win.
Aussie Joe Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said: Gotcha. Totally agree. Although I think it's a longshot we win. What about the +7 on the Bills? I like it..
CommonCents Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: Gotcha. Totally agree. Although I think it's a longshot we win. Me too that’s why I’m sticking with them losing by 3-6 range. They don’t always take the whole pie like they did tonight but they rarely ever give away the whole pie and if the Ravens win by 8+ the pie is off the table. Just now, Aussie Joe said: What about the +7 on the Bills? I like it.. My guess is the line keeps moving up so sit tight until Sunday. FWIW I’m just the fool who took the sucker bet on opening night ? 1
Boatdrinks Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 44 minutes ago, GoBills! said: We love draft picks instead of players and he had one down year after Schwartz left. Nah. He just wasn’t all that enthused about playing zone D and made it known. The “ process” weeded him out.
Kelly the Dog Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 Just now, Commonsense said: Me too that’s why I’m sticking with them losing by 3-6 range. They don’t always take the whole pie like they did tonight but they rarely ever give away the whole pie and if the Ravens win by 8+ the pie is off the table. I love to gamble and it's obvious I have strong opinions on the games and the Bills, but I wouldn't personally go near this game. I see 6-7 completely different scenarios it could very easily turn out and maybe two of them have the Bills losing by less than a TD. I admit I am more biased against Nate playing well than most, but still. We have a boatload of question marks. Surely not all of them are going to turn out great for us or bad for us. Some will and some won't. But game one, we need a lot of things to go right against a well coached, veteran, tough team on the road. 5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: What about the +7 on the Bills? I like it.. I think it's a less than 50-50 chance. Unfortunately. Usually, I'm a homer and optimist. That may be a good sign we suck. I don't think in all of the last 18 years I thought we were going to go 6-10, even when most people did and they were right. I always look to the bright side. I just don't see it this year. 1
CommonCents Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: I love to gamble and it's obvious I have strong opinions on the games and the Bills, but I wouldn't personally go near this game. I see 6-7 completely different scenarios it could very easily turn out and maybe two of them have the Bills losing by less than a TD. I admit I am more biased against Nate playing well than most, but still. We have a boatload of question marks. Surely not all of them are going to turn out great for us or bad for us. Some will and some won't. But game one, we need a lot of things to go right against a well coached, veteran, tough team on the road. Oh I agree totally, Nate sucks and the Bills shouldn’t be in the game. I’m looking strictly at the line and how it mimics tonight’s game. The Bills are being ranked 31-32 by everyone with a twitter account and or press credentials. They announced Nate P. as a starter, the laughing stock replacement QB from a year ago. One would think the spread would be much higher by now. Everyone has been reading how bad the Bills are and this looks like another suckers bet. I suspect the public hammers the Ravens this weekend and the line continues to rise. 1
reddogblitz Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, GoBills! said: We love draft picks instead of players and he had one down year after Schwartz left. Darby never played for SchwArtz here. He was a Rex guy. Edited September 7, 2018 by reddogblitz
apuszczalowski Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 8 hours ago, Commonsense said: Good news for the Bills, the line movement for the Eagles game is going to end up close to what the Bills/Ravens game will be. Ravens opened at -4/-4.5 and I’d guess by Sunday it will be 8/8.5. Bills won’t lose by more than 7. Eagles opened at -4.5 and it was bet down to even. Of course the Wentz announcement but that is not much different than announcing Nate P is starting. Vegas hardly ever takes a total loss on such a dramatic move. Except that stepping down from Wentz to Foles, the reigning SB MVP isnt like naming a 5th round pick starting his 2nd NFL season with about 2 games worth of experience in his NFL career and his first start resulting in a mercy pull at the half because he broke a league record for picks in a half. 8 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said: I would have thought anyone following football would have expected Wentz not to start and Peterman to start, before the annoucements, and especially Vegas. Doubt the line changes much no matter who starts for Buffalo considering they are both young inexperienced players with less than 2 total starts on the league between them
CaptnCoke11 Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Both offenses were ordinary tonight.. Ryan looked very Nate P like, but unfortunately there is no J Jones on the Bills team to bail him out.. We dont need a stud WR because we don’t have a good QB right? I thought that was the mantra around around.
CommonCents Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, apuszczalowski said: Except that stepping down from Wentz to Foles, the reigning SB MVP isnt like naming a 5th round pick starting his 2nd NFL season with about 2 games worth of experience in his NFL career and his first start resulting in a mercy pull at the half because he broke a league record for picks in a half. ....What about Alshon and then the Bradham suspension? The point of the conversation is the same gradual line movement was a clear indication where all the money went. Just like for this Bills game. -7.5 now for Baltimore, it will keep going, probably hits 8-8.5 then sharps will pound it back down half a point.
apuszczalowski Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 21 minutes ago, Commonsense said: ....What about Alshon and then the Bradham suspension? The point of the conversation is the same gradual line movement was a clear indication where all the money went. Just like for this Bills game. -7.5 now for Baltimore, it will keep going, probably hits 8-8.5 then sharps will pound it back down half a point. There was no mention in what I quoted of the other players, it was only comparing QBs. It was about the spread changing based on the announcements of the starting QBs.
CommonCents Posted September 7, 2018 Posted September 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said: There was no mention in what I quoted of the other players, it was only comparing QBs. It was about the spread changing based on the announcements of the starting QBs. There is no need to mention the other players. Did Jimmy Smith getting suspended cause the line to sway towards the Bills? Wentz was declared out and Foles look horrible in the preseason. Peterman is in and everyone is goofing on the Bills for being most likely to get the first overall pick. Money from both games moved the spread 4+ points in one direction. They won’t lose by more than 7 and the spread hits 8, 8.5. Correct me Sunday if I’m wrong. Go Bills.
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