Spending big money on a non-qb

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

If you have a QB on a rookie deal and are confident he will be the guy for the next 10 years.

 

 

Just for the remainder of his contract. It’s very rare that you are saving cap space to sign that franchise QB in FA. Cousins is an exception. Typically you have to find your QB in the draft. Something like 80% of the starting QBs in the league are with the team that drafted them initially. That doesn’t even account for situations like Baker & Rosen.

[Beast]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Just for the remainder of his contract. It’s very rare that you are saving cap space to sign that franchise QB in FA. Cousins is an exception. Typically you have to find your QB in the draft. Something like 80% of the starting QBs in the league are with the team that drafted them initially. That doesn’t even account for situations like Baker & Rosen.

 

Agreed. Just my belief that signing a guy at any position to a huge contract like Mack received, while not sure what you have at QB, is idiotic.

 

You must have read my mind about Cousins. You are correct. He is the exception but something tells me we may see more of that in coming years. 

[mjt328]

I found this related article just as interesting.

It shows a very strong correlation between the percent of cap space used by a team's Top 10 contracts, and their point differential throughout the season.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/9/6/17521424/nfl-predictions-2018-super-bowl-contenders-salary-cap-roster-balance

 

The trick to salary cap management is balance.

-  If you aren't handing out enough big contracts, chances are your talent level isn't where it needs to be.

-  If you are overpaying too many big name players, your depth is probably going to suffer.

-  Teams with young QBs on their first contracts have a significant advantage over everyone else.

 

This is also further evidence that Buffalo is in full-rebuild mode.  We are currently dead-last on the list, suggesting the Bills probably have less talent than most other NFL teams (which is unfortunately hard to argue).  Our highest paid player is Jerry Hughes, who hasn't had more than 6 sacks since 2014. 

 

 

[CountDorkula]

Draft a rookie QB, GO spend crazy money on non QB players for 3-4 years term.

 

Hopefully when your QB developes your big money contracts are out and you have room to pay your QB. 

 

That's how it should work.

[row_33]

13 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Nice article though the concern about overspending for non QBs is not a new one.  I've read somewhere that some teams allocate budgets for each position to avoid over spending on someone like Mack.  There's got to be some balance.  

 

I guess I understand the excitement in Chicago but they mortgaged their future and hamstrung their cap to get Mack.    

 

 

 

In 1974, Lynn Swann was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Swann was selected seventh, but his agent, Howard Slusher, managed to negotiate the second-highest starting salary among rookies that year. (In short, Slusher got Swann No. 2 money even though he was the seventh pick, a fairly rare feat that was great for Swann and great for Slusher's image as a capable negotiator who could deliver for his clients.)

 

At the press conference to announce the signing, Slusher was pulled aside by Art Rooney, then the owner of the Steelers.

 

"You think you screwed us, don't you?" Rooney asked Slusher.

 

Slusher took the politic route and didn't respond. In fact, he did think he had gotten the best of the Steelers.

 

"You're wrong," Rooney said. "We got you. My son says he's not a good football player, he's a great football player. Probably the best draft pick we've ever had. Maybe better than Terry Bradshaw or Joe Greene."

 

 

https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/how-much-to-pay-remarkable-employees.html

Edited September 7, 2018 by row_33

[BigBuff423]

It really is about the status of a team as a whole. I for one am happy the Bills did not over pay for Mack, not because he isn't a great player but as others have said, it just anchors the Cap to a single position (it goes without saying QB is the only position worth that kind of investment). Otherwise, the great teams pay their lines - within reason - their QB and then use the Draft and great value to get the other skill positions as well as depth. Bills need OL help so spending there in FA makes sense ONLY if there are legit FAs available. Paying a guy a lot of money just to have a "guy" and because you've got the Cap space to spend it, doesn't amount to strategic targets and winning. Derrick Dockery anyone? Remember him? Bills raced to the phone at the opening of FA and gave him one of the richest contracts at the time and that, did not go well to say the least. 

 

Build through the Draft, pay your players that have proven to play well and fit in the culture, and get FAs that compliment your core, not become your core. FA WRs should be second teir guys, same with DBs and TEs. You spend Draft capital on the lines, LBers, and RB (due to short shelf life in NFL). I can see the Bills using FA money on DB, G and RT, keeping Groy at Center if he plays well, and a LBer to replace Lorax. Then using Draft for DE / DL, WR, RB and TE - almost in that order. 

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

It really is about the status of a team as a whole. I for one am happy the Bills did not over pay for Mack, not because he isn't a great player but as others have said, it just anchors the Cap to a single position (it goes without saying QB is the only position worth that kind of investment). Otherwise, the great teams pay their lines - within reason - their QB and then use the Draft and great value to get the other skill positions as well as depth. Bills need OL help so spending there in FA makes sense ONLY if there are legit FAs available. Paying a guy a lot of money just to have a "guy" and because you've got the Cap space to spend it, doesn't amount to strategic targets and winning. Derrick Dockery anyone? Remember him? Bills raced to the phone at the opening of FA and gave him one of the richest contracts at the time and that, did not go well to say the least. 

 

Build through the Draft, pay your players that have proven to play well and fit in the culture, and get FAs that compliment your core, not become your core. FA WRs should be second teir guys, same with DBs and TEs. You spend Draft capital on the lines, LBers, and RB (due to short shelf life in NFL). I can see the Bills using FA money on DB, G and RT, keeping Groy at Center if he plays well, and a LBer to replace Lorax. Then using Draft for DE / DL, WR, RB and TE - almost in that order. 

 

Long-term Jets and Bills fans have had the bad luck to sit there and watch the Fish and Pats both massacre our teams for over two decades combined.  This just doesn't happen in sports otherwise.  There simply hasn't been a hope in hades of doing anything for the Griese and Brady Eras.

 

 

[CaptnCoke11]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

The Rams are in a much better position to blow that cap % right now.

 

The Bears are crazy for committing that much of their cap for a defensive player.  

Bears are in a great spot to pay Mack for 4 years of that deal because Trubisky is only in year two of his rookie deal.  

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bears are in a great spot to pay Mack for 4 years of that deal because Trubisky is only in year two of his rookie deal.  

 

What if Trubisky sucks?

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

What if Trubisky sucks?

Then it's very likely they'll have a QB on a rookie salary for even longer! MORE SPENDING!!!

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Then it's very likely they'll have a QB on a rookie salary for even longer! MORE SPENDING!!!

 

Not in the first round for the next 2 years.

 

This trade made no sense for the Bears.  Turning a top 10 D into a top 5 makes them the Tampa Bay of the NFC North, except half their cap is going to one guy and they have no ide if their QB is any good.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

Not in the first round for the next 2 years.

 

This trade made no sense for the Bears.  Turning a top 10 D into a top 5 makes them the Tampa Bay of the NFC North, except half their cap is going to one guy and they have no ide if their QB is any good.

They seem to be building a solid roster for a QB to step into Cowboys-style. They got a bunch of solid offensive skill players and they've got the makings of a very good D. If Trubisky struggles they will work on the OL this offseason. If Tru still isn't it (I suspect he isn't). They'll draft someone new to step into a very nice situation.

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

They seem to be building a solid roster for a QB to step into Cowboys-style. They got a bunch of solid offensive skill players and they've got the makings of a very good D. If Trubisky struggles they will work on the OL this offseason. If Tru still isn't it (I suspect he isn't). They'll draft someone new to step into a very nice situation.

 

They won't have a 1st to pick a QB for a few years.

[CaptnCoke11]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

What if Trubisky sucks?

Ummmmm Then they’ll draft another one?  I’m no Einstein but that’s usually the process 

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Ummmmm Then they’ll draft another one?  I’m no Einstein but that’s usually the process 

 

 

look up

[BuffaloHokie13]

18 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

They won't have a 1st to pick a QB for a few years.

If they do the OL thing like I suspect then he'll be entering the final year of his rookie deal. That's a fine time to take another shot in the draft. Either it lights a fire under Tru, or next man up.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

If they do the OL thing like I suspect then he'll be entering the final year of his rookie deal. That's a fine time to take another shot in the draft. Either it lights a fire under Tru, or next man up.

 

There you have it.  Under that plan, they slog through 4 years of Trubinsky, then start all over with another rookie.  By that time, Mack is entering the last few years of his contract.  Wasted money as Mack pads his stats.  All for naught.

 

Mack is the guy you bring in to complete the puzzle.  Put you over the top.

[Mat68]

The Raiders need a complete roster rebuild.  Carr is making 20mil.  Very difficult to pay 2 20 mil contracts.  Also, Davis is the most cash poor owner.  Paying 80 mil out of pocket might not be option.  Best case is to get a franchise Qb on a rookie deal.  Than you have the urgency to win now with an expectation of a Superbowl run. Seattle, Philly, and Rams all used that model.  Once you have a franchise Qb price tag rosters usually change and more resources are allocated to protecting that guy.  Defenses are cheap and young.  

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There you have it.  Under that plan, they slog through 4 years of Trubinsky, then start all over with another rookie.  By that time, Mack is entering the last few years of his contract.  Wasted money as Mack pads his stats.  All for naught.

 

Mack is the guy you bring in to complete the puzzle.  Put you over the top.

Imo Trubisky and the Bears are alot closer than some believe. That defensive front 7 can now rival any in the NFC.  They have a great running game.  Brought in loads of pass catchers.  If Allen becomes something next offseason Buffalo will do something very similar.  Outside of a pass rusher, Buffalo will add weapons and lineman.

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, Mat68 said:

The Raiders need a complete roster rebuild.  Carr is making 20mil.  Very difficult to pay 2 20 mil contracts.  Also, Davis is the most cash poor owner.  Paying 80 mil out of pocket might not be option.  Best case is to get a franchise Qb on a rookie deal.  Than you have the urgency to win now with an expectation of a Superbowl run. Seattle, Philly, and Rams all used that model.  Once you have a franchise Qb price tag rosters usually change and more resources are allocated to protecting that guy.  Defenses are cheap and young.  

Imo Trubisky and the Bears are alot closer than some believe. That defensive front 7 can now rival any in the NFC.  They have a great running game.  Brought in loads of pass catchers.  If Allen becomes something next offseason Buffalo will do something very similar.  Outside of a pass rusher, Buffalo will add weapons and lineman.

 

 

If it was the easy to draft the franchise QB and male a run at the SB while he's under his 1st contract, every team would follow that model..

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 9/6/2018 at 6:18 PM, lookylookyherecomescookie said:

              https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rams-and-bears-spent-big-on-non-quarterbacks-will-they-regret-it/

 

This is an article that I think is worthwhile for all our arm-chair GMs.   I'd invite any thoughts

 

It's really pretty simple.  If Trubisky turns out to be The Guy at QB for the Bears and Mack meshes and plays well for them, they could look genius.

If Trubisky turns out to be "Just A Guy" at QB, Mack may keep them drafting high enough to avoid snagging a replacement.  Or he may not mesh well and may follow the trajectory of Suh, Haynesworth and others who have not contributed as well for their second teams.

 

The Rams signing Donald is less risky.  They've already seen some good play out of Goff, and Donald has been a key part of their D already.  But even so, if Goff turns out to be a 1-year-wonder, see above.