Gregg Rosenthal: 2018 NFL QB Index - Ranking QBs from the Last Four Drafts

[whatdrought]

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Jackson is a different paradigm as a QB as a true dual threat. Darnold shows quite a bit in terms of passing traits and playmaking on a bad team, Rosen showed well earlier, but things have declined as his situation has gotten progressively worse with a terrible OL and weapons getting injured. Allen's situation has gotten better with the speed element added  by Fostr and McKenzie along with his own development.  Long way to go for all of them. 

 

Jackson is a great athlete and player- he isn’t a great QB right now. I look forward to seeing which way he goes, but I find it annoying when people rave about his play without mentioning that he isn’t really playing QB.

 

As for Darnold, he has shown some stuff but those turnovers are always going to be worrisome. They also seem to stick to a small pass game. I think those are both knocks against him coming out, so we’ll see if that persists. He gets a lot of grace for being the golden child in NY like the Sanchize did.

 

Rosen has played like trash from what I have heard (have not seen so I won’t say it directly). What I have heard he has done poorly are the same things he was supposed to do well coming out- quick decision making and understanding defense. 

 

Allen’s situation could be a chicken egg type deal. Did his situation get better because of that speed, or did he make the situation better?

 

I agree that we’re miles from knowing anything. I think the ranking that we started this with is pretty disingenuous (my opinion) as it’s really hard to imagine the benched guy at # 2.

 

I find myself wondering if Allen will always be mired by the pre-draft dislike that many had for him. There was a young element in the NFL world that considered him a throwback to a stupid time of football before effeciency mattered. That was the Josh V. Josh debate right? Talent vs. cerebralness. I find myself wondering if this will ever be shook, or if those who were sure of what he was before will hold tight to that. And the same can be said for Rosen, I am sure, though he seems to get more grace in the media right now.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

Jackson is a great athlete and player- he isn’t a great QB right now. I look forward to seeing which way he goes, but I find it annoying when people rave about his play without mentioning that he isn’t really playing QB.

 

As for Darnold, he has shown some stuff but those turnovers are always going to be worrisome. They also seem to stick to a small pass game. I think those are both knocks against him coming out, so we’ll see if that persists. He gets a lot of grace for being the golden child in NY like the Sanchize did.

 

Rosen has played like trash from what I have heard (have not seen so I won’t say it directly). What I have heard he has done poorly are the same things he was supposed to do well coming out- quick decision making and understanding defense. 

 

Allen’s situation could be a chicken egg type deal. Did his situation get better because of that speed, or did he make the situation better?

 

I agree that we’re miles from knowing anything. I think the ranking that we started this with is pretty disingenuous (my opinion) as it’s really hard to imagine the benched guy at # 2.

 

I find myself wondering if Allen will always be mired by the pre-draft dislike that many had for him. There was a young element in the NFL world that considered him a throwback to a stupid time of football before effeciency mattered. That was the Josh V. Josh debate right? Talent vs. cerebralness. I find myself wondering if this will ever be shook, or if those who were sure of what he was before will hold tight to that. And the same can be said for Rosen, I am sure, though he seems to get more grace in the media right now.

 

You have mostly heard that here on TSW as a backlash by the Allen bunker brigade. Rosen still has elite pocket skills and passing skills, but the situation around him as deteriorated as the Cardinals season has gone along.  Allen has improved, but so have the receivers around him with Foster blossoming and McKenzie making plays with the departue of Pryor and Benjamin. 

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You have mostly heard that here on TSW as a backlash by the Allen bunker brigade. Rosen still has elite pocket skills and passing skills, but the situation around him as deteriorated as the Cardinals season has gone along.  Allen has improved, but so have the receivers around him with Foster blossoming and McKenzie making plays with the departue of Pryor and Benjamin. 

 

Could be. I do know that Arizona is a train wreck. I really don’t know a whole lot about it. 

Time will tell, but I like Allen so far.

[folz]

On Rosenthal's QB index list, he has Josh 13th of QBs drafted in the last 4 years with at least 100 throws. The list is a future projection of who will be best going forward.

I'm fine with his top 5 (Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz, Watson, and Goff...of course 4 of those 5 are in their 2nd year as opposed to first and have better weapons, which makes a difference). But, we need to see more from Josh before we can put him in that category.

 

But then Rosenthal has 8 more QBs ahead of Allen: Darnold, Prescott, Winston, Mariota, Rosen, Jackson, and Trubisky. Of course I'm biased as a Bills fan, but I think Josh has shown at least as much as his fellow draft mates and at worst should be on par with Darnold, Jackson, and Rosen. And I would already put him ahead of Prescott, Mariota, Winston, and Trubisky (as far as future projection). If there was a redraft of these 8 players, Darnold would be the only one that I would even debate taking over Allen. And I think I would still go with Josh, because he is a perfect fit for Buffalo and wanted to be here.

 

 

As for the Power Rankings list from NFL.com, Josh is 17th. This is a list of who is playing best right now. It would be hard to move Josh up more than a couple of spots on this list. Maybe you put him in front of Prescott and Foles for 15th, but probably not much higher than that right now.

[racketmaster]

7 hours ago, folz said:

On Rosenthal's QB index list, he has Josh 13th of QBs drafted in the last 4 years with at least 100 throws. The list is a future projection of who will be best going forward.

I'm fine with his top 5 (Mahomes, Mayfield, Wentz, Watson, and Goff...of course 4 of those 5 are in their 2nd year as opposed to first and have better weapons, which makes a difference). But, we need to see more from Josh before we can put him in that category.

 

But then Rosenthal has 8 more QBs ahead of Allen: Darnold, Prescott, Winston, Mariota, Rosen, Jackson, and Trubisky. Of course I'm biased as a Bills fan, but I think Josh has shown at least as much as his fellow draft mates and at worst should be on par with Darnold, Jackson, and Rosen. And I would already put him ahead of Prescott, Mariota, Winston, and Trubisky (as far as future projection). If there was a redraft of these 8 players, Darnold would be the only one that I would even debate taking over Allen. And I think I would still go with Josh, because he is a perfect fit for Buffalo and wanted to be here.

 

 

As for the Power Rankings list from NFL.com, Josh is 17th. This is a list of who is playing best right now. It would be hard to move Josh up more than a couple of spots on this list. Maybe you put him in front of Prescott and Foles for 15th, but probably not much higher than that right now.

If a hypothetical draft were to be held at the end of the season and I had the opportunity to choose from all those young quarterbacks I would want (1) Mahomes and then (2) Allen with it being a close call over Mayfield and Watson mostly because I’m assuming that I’m drafting for the Bills and I like Allen’s size and arm strength for the colder bad weather games.

 

Admittedly I am going upside with that type of thinking but Allen’s arm talent, athleticism and size is extremely rare. The man can stretch the entire field forcing defenses to cover every inch and let’s not forget he can not only run away from defenders but jump over them. Just as important to me, Allen is very competitive, smart, displays excellent leadership and appears to have the necessary confidence of a franchise quarterback. All the above traits combined along with his very solid play the past 4 games give me reason to think Allen could be elite. I’m not talking about can Allen become a top 15 or 10 quarterback, I’m saying that he has a very real chance of being a top 3 quarterback in 2-3 years. That’s a risk I’d be willing to take. 

 

Mariota, Prescott and Winston, come on now. 2 of them are captain checkdowns and the other is a turnover machine that was benched  in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick this year. Wentz has proven to be injury prone so far in college and the NFL. He also has not looked particularly good this year when he was healthy. He has no where near the arm talent Allen has nor the athleticism anymore. If you watched Goff play the past 3 games no further explanation would be necessary. He has been shaky in the pocket and missing open receivers because he is seeing ghosts. He’ll turn it around but Goff is a good quarterback who has been elevated by tremendous coaching and talent around him. Put Goff on the Bills right now and he is getting killed as he has no ability to escape. 

 

Outside of Watson, the other rookie quarterbacks in Mayfield and Darnold would be considerations. Mayfield could b the next Brees and Darnold is similar to Romo but he might have more moxie at the end of close games. Still, Allen’s enormous potential and play the past 4 weeks has me taking him over those two. 

 

Rosen over Allen is ridiculous. He lacks any special  qualities. His arm strength and athleticism is average and he is not a leader. He is struggling mightily in Arizona and can’t escape the rush. But excuses will continue to be made for him because he was the chosen one. He has David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald so it is not like he has been completely devoid of weapons. His talent situation is no worse than what Buffalo has had (we had a 4th string practice squad rb playing last week and 2 WRs that were on the street earlier this season). And Jackson, I’ve said it before that he is a supercharged Taylor as a runner. Not impressed with his passing skills but his running makes him a headache each week. However, in 5-6 years the pounding he takes will diminish his running ability and he will have little value as a passer. In 5-6 years, Allen should be in the midst of his prime and have another decade to go. 

 

For a future evaluation, the writer did a horrible job other than putting Mahomes and Mayfield at the top. Dak Prescott and Mariota over Allen lol 

Edited December 21, 2018 by racketmaster

[BuffaloHokie13]

Here are my rankings heading into the weekend. Top 32 are the starters from last week, others below are the QBs with at least 100 attempts this year.

 

[racketmaster]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Here are my rankings heading into the weekend. Top 32 are the starters from last week, others below are the QBs with at least 100 attempts this year.

 

I don’t have too much issue with the current play rankings above other than Allen is getting better each week and his stats from the first few outings weigh him down some. But if we are talking about future rankings, Allen is near the top of the list because of his enormous talent, character and controlled salary. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I don’t have too much issue with the current play rankings above other than Allen is getting better each week and his stats from the first few outings weigh him down some. But if we are talking about future rankings, Allen is near the top of the list because of his enormous talent, character and controlled salary. 

Much like Rosenthal's list, mine is based on their play this year alone.

[billspro]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Here are my rankings heading into the weekend. Top 32 are the starters from last week, others below are the QBs with at least 100 attempts this year.

 

 

Do you create that yourself? That looks like a ton of work. That would make sense for rankings using analytics.

[34-78-83]

13 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I just can't fathom how he could justify that order. Horrible. There is no chance Rosen has looked 2nd best on film.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, 34-78-83 said:

I just can't fathom how he could justify that order. Horrible. There is no chance Rosen has looked 2nd best on film.

 

 

 

Which of course means you have studied his film to arrive at that conclusion.

[billspro]

9 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Jackson is a great athlete and player- he isn’t a great QB right now. I look forward to seeing which way he goes, but I find it annoying when people rave about his play without mentioning that he isn’t really playing QB.

 

As for Darnold, he has shown some stuff but those turnovers are always going to be worrisome. They also seem to stick to a small pass game. I think those are both knocks against him coming out, so we’ll see if that persists. He gets a lot of grace for being the golden child in NY like the Sanchize did.

 

Rosen has played like trash from what I have heard (have not seen so I won’t say it directly). What I have heard he has done poorly are the same things he was supposed to do well coming out- quick decision making and understanding defense. 

 

Allen’s situation could be a chicken egg type deal. Did his situation get better because of that speed, or did he make the situation better?

 

I agree that we’re miles from knowing anything. I think the ranking that we started this with is pretty disingenuous (my opinion) as it’s really hard to imagine the benched guy at # 2.

 

I find myself wondering if Allen will always be mired by the pre-draft dislike that many had for him. There was a young element in the NFL world that considered him a throwback to a stupid time of football before effeciency mattered. That was the Josh V. Josh debate right? Talent vs. cerebralness. I find myself wondering if this will ever be shook, or if those who were sure of what he was before will hold tight to that. And the same can be said for Rosen, I am sure, though he seems to get more grace in the media right now.

 

Everyone is trying to fit these rookie QBs into there predraft rankings right now. I had Rosen as the number 2 QB and I am regretting that ranking right now.

 

I would say Darnold has looked solid. Jackson has created a dominant rushing team, I don’t know if that is sustainable long term. Allen and Mayfield have elevated the play of the offensive players around them. Rosen has done some decent thing but has way too many negative plays.

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Which of course means you have studied his film to arrive at that conclusion.

 

Why don’t you show why Rosen has the second best film? A statement like this is useless. There is a right and a wrong opinion here. Not everyone is going to be correct.

9 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You have mostly heard that here on TSW as a backlash by the Allen bunker brigade. Rosen still has elite pocket skills and passing skills, but the situation around him as deteriorated as the Cardinals season has gone along.  Allen has improved, but so have the receivers around him with Foster blossoming and McKenzie making plays with the departue of Pryor and Benjamin. 

 

Which shows Allen is elevating the play of his teammates. He probably still has less offensive talent around him compared to Rosen.

Edited December 21, 2018 by billspro

[34-78-83]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Which of course means you have studied his film to arrive at that conclusion.

My implication was that it doesn't take watching on film to see that Rosen is severely struggling with a lot of what he was supposed to be polished at, and that he is limited due to lack of mobility and the arm seems less impressive than in college so far. He's right about Mayfiled of course but that's easy... Film or no film, there's enough out there for people to see that Baker is killing it, Allen has steadily improved throughout the season, Darnold has had moments, and Jackson can win games but needs work passing as well.

[BuffaloHokie13]

14 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Do you create that yourself? That looks like a ton of work. That would make sense for rankings using analytics.

I did! I also created the formula that's calculating the QB Rating score in the final column. It's not too bad, I just add their stats in each week as they play, but most of the fields are equations. My goal was to create a rating that more closely matched 'the eye test' rankings.

[billspro]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I did! I also created the formula that's calculating the QB Rating score in the final column. It's not too bad, I just add their stats in each week as they play, but most of the fields are equations. My goal was to create a rating that more closely matched 'the eye test' rankings.

 

Thats awesome! Allen’s first few games are definitely going to drag his rating down a lot. I would expect him to make a big leap in your rankings next season.

[racketmaster]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I did! I also created the formula that's calculating the QB Rating score in the final column. It's not too bad, I just add their stats in each week as they play, but most of the fields are equations. My goal was to create a rating that more closely matched 'the eye test' rankings.

That is a great chart. Great seeing all the stats in one chart for comparison purposes. But as billspro stated above, Allen’s first few games will drag his stats down a bit. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Thats awesome! Allen’s first few games are definitely going to drag his rating down a lot. I would expect him to make a big leap in your rankings next season.

I broke it down pre & post injury. Allen's pre-injury rating is 49.2 (replacement level) and his post-injury rating is 76.8 (in line with Mayfield, Cousins, Dalton, and Mullens).

[26CornerBlitz]

10 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

My implication was that it doesn't take watching on film to see that Rosen is severely struggling with a lot of what he was supposed to be polished at, and that he is limited due to lack of mobility and the arm seems less impressive than in college so far. He's right about Mayfiled of course but that's easy... Film or no film, there's enough out there for people to see that Baker is killing it, Allen has steadily improved throughout the season, Darnold has had moments, and Jackson can win games but needs work passing as well.

 

Rosen is saddled with an OL that is the worst in the NFL IMO and his arm is plenty good enough as is his mobility within the pocket.  He's constantly under siege and has no running game to lean on.  Rosenthal is making a long term projection vs. the right now snap shots that you also seem to be hung up on.  He's remains a very good NFL prospect regardless of his current situation with a projection of being able to make good decisions based on his ability to process information and then deliver the ball with timing, anticipation, and accuracy. 

[34-78-83]

33 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Rosen is saddled with an OL that is the worst in the NFL IMO and his arm is plenty good enough as is his mobility within the pocket.  He's constantly under siege and has no running game to lean on.  Rosenthal is making a long term projection vs. the right now snap shots that you also seem to be hung up on.  He's remains a very good NFL prospect regardless of his current situation with a projection of being able to make good decisions based on his ability to process information and then deliver the ball with timing, anticipation, and accuracy. 

I don't disagree with any of that. However, our guy is dealing with an equally poor line and worse skill positions. Can't rank Rosen #2 "so far" based on that. Also, In listening/reading Rosenthal for a few years - he looks at execution of the short west coast offense as the ideal level of quarterbacking (ie Sam Bradford on one of his good days). He's still a respectable analyst and all that... he's just wrong here and its just because he's hanging on to what he said previously about Allen. It's tough for folks to let go.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, 34-78-83 said:

I don't disagree with any of that. However, our guy is dealing with an equally poor line and worse skill positions. Can't rank Rosen #2 "so far" based on that. Also, In listening/reading Rosenthal for a few years - he looks at execution of the short west coast offense as the ideal level of quarterbacking (ie Sam Bradford on one of his good days). He's still a respectable analyst and all that... he's just wrong here and its just because he's hanging on to what he said previously about Allen. It's tough for folks to let go.

 

Again, his ranking isn't based on so far.  He's projecting based on what he's seen from the perspective of what QBs hang their hats on in the NFL and that's the things I already mentioned (being able to make good decisions based on his ability to process information and then deliver the ball with timing, anticipation, and accuracy.) with Rosen showing that in many games irrespective of his current situation.