Gregg Rosenthal: 2018 NFL QB Index - Ranking QBs from the Last Four Drafts

[26CornerBlitz]

QB Index, Week 3: Trouble for Jimmy Garoppolo?

 

This weekend's showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo in Kansas City is a reminder of how quickly the crown of the NFL's Next Big Thing can change hands.

 

It's not that Jimmy G is an afterthought during this, his first full season as a starter. It was only seven months ago that Garoppolo briefly became the highest-paid player in football and his uneven start to the season is hardly cause for alarm. It's the next logical step in his progression, one that Mahomes will likely go through once he tires of lighting opposing game plans on fire.

 

Garoppolo made a few mistakes while getting harassed by the great Vikings defense in Week 1, but he also made a number of impressive throws. Week 2 was more concerning and he admitted to holding the ball way too long while taking six sacks against the Lions in Week 2.

 

"When you do have the success that Jimmy had last year, when you do get that big contract off a limited sample size, I think when he does really good, I think people are going to make a little bit too big a deal of it," 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said on Wednesday. "And I think when he doesn't do really good, I think we're all going to make a little bit too big of a deal of it also."

 

Shanahan is consistently one of the most incisive coaches at a podium and makes a great point here. That doesn't change the reality that Garoppolo's two-game stretch to open this year is worse than any two-game stretch he had a year ago. While I am deathly afraid of drawing many conclusions after just two games, I wanted to highlight five ways that the 2018 season has looked different at the quarterback position, starting with Jimmy G.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

NFL QB Power Rankings Week 3: Ryan Fitzpatrick in Top 10? Where did rising star Patrick Mahomes land?

 

by Will Brinson

 

Originally I was going to use this space to extoll the virtues of Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick, telling you all about the great throws that they've made through two weeks of the 2018 NFL season. This is opposite land from last year: instead of young star quarterbacks getting injured in Week 3, we have a young star quarterback returning from injury (Carson Wentz), a young star quarterback turning into an MVP candidate (Mahomes) and an old, stale retread doing the same (Fitzpatrick). 

 

The league is loaded with quarterbacks and it's never been easier to do the job. Which brings me to my new main point: if you hear someone blaming fantasy footballfor a dumb generation of football fans today, yell at them and call them stupid. Actually don't do that: just remind them politely how wrong they are. 

 

This is a thing that popped up on Wednesday night when someone noted on Twitter that Ryan Fitzpatrick has more touchdown passes than Troy Aikman. Aikman saw the tweet and said "who cares?," it got retweeted a ton of times and then on Thursday morning, a bunch of beat writers started blaming fantasy football for fans being dumb.

 

30  Josh Allen BUFFALO BILLS QB

 

He's been thrust in an impossible situation and I think he's handling it pretty well. Man he can throw the ball a long way. Good luck @ MIN and @ GB, sir.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

QB Index, Week 4: Ranking QBs from past two drafts

 

It didn't take long for the class of 2018 quarterbacks to take center stage. Following the promotions of Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen this week, the first four quarterbacks selected in April will start in Week 4. Combine that group with the quartet of quarterbacks drafted in 2017 that are also starting -- Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and C.J. Beathard -- and a quarter of the league's starters are rookies or second-year players.

 

With my quarterly ranking of all 32 NFL quarterbacks still a week away, let's try a different set of ridiculously premature rankings. If I could pick any one of the starting quarterbacks from the last two draft classes to start a team with, whom would I take?

 

Of course this is incredibly subjective and based on microscopically small sample sizes, but that's partly what makes it fun.

 

6) Josh Allen, Bills

 

Drafted: Round 1, seventh overall, 2018.

 

I see a big gap between Darnold and Allen, although the Bills rookie's performance in Week 3 showed his potential. Allen is Buffalo's leading rusher after three weeks and his size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) makes going for it on fourth-and-short an easy call. Not unlike Blake Bortles, Allen will probably be at his best trusting his arm and throwing against man coverage outside the numbers. It's debatable whether Allen has the teammates to win contested catches, with his leading wideout only gaining 29 yards even in the win against the Vikings.

 

The Bills will have to build an offense around Allen's physical skill set early in his career and hope that he learns from his mistakes, like the numerous occasions in Week 2 when he didn't avoid the pass rush and stared down receivers. It's easy to imagine Allen winning enough with his physical tools to make highlight reels and convince coaches of possible greatness, but the path to career longevity will be trickier.

[whatdrought]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

QB Index, Week 4: Ranking QBs from past two drafts

 

It didn't take long for the class of 2018 quarterbacks to take center stage. Following the promotions of Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen this week, the first four quarterbacks selected in April will start in Week 4. Combine that group with the quartet of quarterbacks drafted in 2017 that are also starting -- Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and C.J. Beathard -- and a quarter of the league's starters are rookies or second-year players.

 

With my quarterly ranking of all 32 NFL quarterbacks still a week away, let's try a different set of ridiculously premature rankings. If I could pick any one of the starting quarterbacks from the last two draft classes to start a team with, whom would I take?

 

Of course this is incredibly subjective and based on microscopically small sample sizes, but that's partly what makes it fun.

 

6) Josh Allen, Bills

 

Drafted: Round 1, seventh overall, 2018.

 

I see a big gap between Darnold and Allen, although the Bills rookie's performance in Week 3 showed his potential. Allen is Buffalo's leading rusher after three weeks and his size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) makes going for it on fourth-and-short an easy call. Not unlike Blake Bortles, Allen will probably be at his best trusting his arm and throwing against man coverage outside the numbers. It's debatable whether Allen has the teammates to win contested catches, with his leading wideout only gaining 29 yards even in the win against the Vikings.

 

The Bills will have to build an offense around Allen's physical skill set early in his career and hope that he learns from his mistakes, like the numerous occasions in Week 2 when he didn't avoid the pass rush and stared down receivers. It's easy to imagine Allen winning enough with his physical tools to make highlight reels and convince coaches of possible greatness, but the path to career longevity will be trickier.

 

So... My problem with this: 

 

Either his ranking is based on what these QB's have done in the games, in which case Allen certainly deserves to be above Rosen. 

Or his ranking is based on inate skills and projections, in which case it's hard to argue for Mahomes above Darnold (according to draft niks everywhere.)

[Domdab99]

I know people do these things for fun, but rankings and power rankings and all that are just so silly...whoever wins...that's who's good. Whoever keeps winning...that's who's better. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

QB Index, Week 4: Ranking QBs from past two drafts

 

It didn't take long for the class of 2018 quarterbacks to take center stage. Following the promotions of Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen this week, the first four quarterbacks selected in April will start in Week 4. Combine that group with the quartet of quarterbacks drafted in 2017 that are also starting -- Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and C.J. Beathard -- and a quarter of the league's starters are rookies or second-year players.

 

With my quarterly ranking of all 32 NFL quarterbacks still a week away, let's try a different set of ridiculously premature rankings. If I could pick any one of the starting quarterbacks from the last two draft classes to start a team with, whom would I take?

 

Of course this is incredibly subjective and based on microscopically small sample sizes, but that's partly what makes it fun.

 

6) Josh Allen, Bills

 

Drafted: Round 1, seventh overall, 2018.

 

I see a big gap between Darnold and Allen, although the Bills rookie's performance in Week 3 showed his potential. Allen is Buffalo's leading rusher after three weeks and his size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) makes going for it on fourth-and-short an easy call. Not unlike Blake Bortles, Allen will probably be at his best trusting his arm and throwing against man coverage outside the numbers. It's debatable whether Allen has the teammates to win contested catches, with his leading wideout only gaining 29 yards even in the win against the Vikings.

 

The Bills will have to build an offense around Allen's physical skill set early in his career and hope that he learns from his mistakes, like the numerous occasions in Week 2 when he didn't avoid the pass rush and stared down receivers. It's easy to imagine Allen winning enough with his physical tools to make highlight reels and convince coaches of possible greatness, but the path to career longevity will be trickier.

 

Just ahead of Trubisky and CJ Beathard.

 

Pretty funny.

 

I think it's pretty clear the national pundits and experts are going to be really really stubborn about Allen.  He had the best showing on Sunday out of Darnold/Mayfield/Rosen and has showed progress in each game he's played.  The moment he has a bad game--which will happen-- he's going to be crucified.  When he plays really well, like he did last Sunday where his stats were only relatively "mediocre" (and is a 69% completion with 3 TDs and 0 turnovers really mediocre???) was because we got out to a huge lead in the 1st half and completely let our foot off the gas pedal in the 2nd half. 

 

(Wasn't there something about Allen's 1st half being the best half by a rookie in years by some measure?)

 

There will be a few national pundits who embrace Allen, but they're guys who have embraced him early, like Schrager and Adam Schein.  Everyone else will firmly hold onto the fact that Allen will fall apart, and when it looks momentarily like he has, he'll be pounced on.  And when he has a really good game, it'll probably be glossed over and they can easily do it because he just plays for Buffalo.

[Soda Popinski]

If Foster makes those two catches, he's got an extra 80 or so yards passing and looks much more legitimate.   It's sad because he had 4 incredibly catchable balls dropped between Foster and Benji.    So I very much like what I see from him.   He's putting the ball where it needs to be with accuracy and anticipation.    I just want to see him improve every week. 

[26CornerBlitz]

On 9/27/2018 at 2:15 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

QB Index, Week 4: Ranking QBs from past two drafts

 

It didn't take long for the class of 2018 quarterbacks to take center stage. Following the promotions of Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen this week, the first four quarterbacks selected in April will start in Week 4. Combine that group with the quartet of quarterbacks drafted in 2017 that are also starting -- Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and C.J. Beathard -- and a quarter of the league's starters are rookies or second-year players.

 

With my quarterly ranking of all 32 NFL quarterbacks still a week away, let's try a different set of ridiculously premature rankings. If I could pick any one of the starting quarterbacks from the last two draft classes to start a team with, whom would I take?

 

Of course this is incredibly subjective and based on microscopically small sample sizes, but that's partly what makes it fun.

 

6) Josh Allen, Bills

 

Drafted: Round 1, seventh overall, 2018.

 

I see a big gap between Darnold and Allen, although the Bills rookie's performance in Week 3 showed his potential. Allen is Buffalo's leading rusher after three weeks and his size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) makes going for it on fourth-and-short an easy call. Not unlike Blake Bortles, Allen will probably be at his best trusting his arm and throwing against man coverage outside the numbers. It's debatable whether Allen has the teammates to win contested catches, with his leading wideout only gaining 29 yards even in the win against the Vikings.

 

The Bills will have to build an offense around Allen's physical skill set early in his career and hope that he learns from his mistakes, like the numerous occasions in Week 2 when he didn't avoid the pass rush and stared down receivers. It's easy to imagine Allen winning enough with his physical tools to make highlight reels and convince coaches of possible greatness, but the path to career longevity will be trickier.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

NFL Week 4 QB Power Rankings: Ryan Tannehill is ... good? Patrick Mahomes moves up top

 

Ranking every starting quarterback from 1-32 every week for the whole season, let's go

 

There were a lot of questions about these guys coming into the season and I'm not entirely sure they have answered a single one of those questions yet. 

 

ROOKIES

 

27	Baker MayfieldCLEVELAND BROWNS QB
Looked incredible on Thursday in comeback duty. 10 days to prepare. People will expect big things.
28	Josh AllenBUFFALO BILLS QB
Credit where credit is due: Allen used his athleticism to help generate big plays with his feet and came away with the most surprising win of the season and decade.
29	Sam DarnoldNEW YORK JETS QB
If you were holding a ticket on Darnold to win OROY you are not feeling great. I'm here for you.
30	Josh RosenARIZONA CARDINALS QB
First start coming too! He threw a bad pick but the bigger concern is the situation he had and the offensive line in front of him.

 

Pretty good crop of rookie quarterbacks we've got here. Could see all four of these guys being very good, even if they won't be good this week. 

[26CornerBlitz]

NFL Network's Kurt Warner's top five NFL quarterbacks of Week 3 (4:07)

[Rigotz]

Really ridiculous that Rosen is ranked ahead of Allen and Darnold in that "rookie ranking"

 

...he was drafted after both guys and hasn't started a game yet and looked terrible when he played.

 

Clearly a case of a guy just writing articles on preconceived notions and not bothering to watch games.

[26CornerBlitz]

NFL Total Quarterback Rating - National Football League - ESPN

 

RK	PLAYER	PTS ADDED	PASS	RUN	PENALTY	TOTAL EPA	QB PLAYS	RAW QBR	TOTAL QBR
21	Josh Allen, BUF	-1.5	-2.2	3.8	0.0	4.3	109	45.2	40.9

[Logic]

Bills fans will enjoy their lives a lot more in the coming years if they learn to not care so much about what national pundits say. 

Let Allen's play do the talking. If he is as good as we all think he can be, the pundits will shut their mouths. If he's not, they'll all cackle and claim victory and we'll be talking draft again by 2020. Until one of those two things happen, it's all just opinions, clickbait, and hyperbole.

Quit caring so much. Quit going off on Twitter on any analyst that dares voice a less-than-glowing opinion of Allen. Enough already.

[26CornerBlitz]

Best and worst QBs of Week 4: Trubisky jumps from worst to first

 

Any given Sunday ... every quarterback has a shot to sit atop the Total QBR leaderboard. While QBs are most often judged by wins and losses or touchdowns and interceptions, we like to rank them every week by the stat that measures their per-play contribution to their team's cause.

 

Bottom 3

 

 

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

 

Total QBR: 5.1

 

Allen wowed NFL scouts with his throwing strength during the pre-draft process.

 

The problem? A cannon for an arm matters only if the ball goes to the right team. When Allen chucked it deep -- 15-plus yards downfield -- against the Packers on Sunday, he ended up completing more passes to defenders than he did to his own teammates. Those interceptions were two of Allen's three most costly plays of the day, with a fumble on a short run sandwiched between.

 

Allen now has the lowest Total QBR (23.7) among all qualified starters this season. -- Walder

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Kurt Warner's Top 5 Quarterbacks of Week 4 (3:53)

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[26CornerBlitz]

Too Soon to Declare Changing of the Guard? Ranking Quarterbacks 1-32

With one quarter of the season complete, Gregg Rosenthal reveals his ranking of the 32 quarterbacks who have played the bulk of the snaps for their respective teams.

 

The top two quarterbacks in the QB Index after four games are each 23 years old. Combine the ages of Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff and it's not that much higher than the age of Tom Brady, the fella who finished in the top spot a year ago.

 

It's way too early to make sweeping judgments about a changing of the guard at the position. Even though Brady is off to a slow start, familiar names like Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgersremain at the top of their game. The overall picture of the position is more complicated than any over-arching narrative, with many of this year's most surprising performances coming from established veterans like Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

The quarterback position as a whole is incredibly healthy, with record passing numbers buoyed by aggressive offensive concepts infiltrating the entire league. For new readers, the rankings below reflect each quarterback's 2018 play alone. All that matters is what's happened so far this year. That's why Brady is low and very likely to climb when I do the complete rankings again in four weeks. The QBs ranked below have played the bulk of the snaps for their respective teams.

 

NOTE: Arrows reflect changes from the preseason QB rankings.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

NFL Week 5 QB Power Rankings: Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes top MVP list at quarter point

 

by Will Brinson

 

After ruining the start to Ryan Tannehill's season with a patented QB ranking jinx, who should we target next? Just kidding -- jinxing anyone feels terrible, and I'm not willing to disparage Patrick Mahomes. Or Jared Goff. Both of those guys, in fact, lead my list of MVP candidates one quarter of the way through the season.

 

So in the spirit of looking at who might be the MVP at this arbitrary marker for 2018, let's rank every single quarterback based on where they would slot into the MVP race, assuming only quarterbacks are eligible (which is not that far off from reality). This can work as a breakdown of where everyone stands going into Week 5, but it's mostly a checkpoint for four games into the year on who has been the most valuable. 

 

Yell at me on Twitter @WillBrinson with your complaints, questions and (unlikely) compliments and make sure to check out my daily NFL podcast, the Pick Six Podcast, which you can subscribe to on iTunes here.

 

To the rankings:

 

[26CornerBlitz]