Is a "Bad" Year Really All That Bad for the Bills?

[Midwest1981]

It seems that most Bills fans- or at least those that post on the board- are starting to realize that a bullish 2018 outlook is more in the 7-9 range than realistically having a chance to repeat as a Playoff participant.  And clearly the Bills are a popular choice among the media, NFL pundits, and other teams' fanbases to be staring at the Bosa/Oliver sweepstakes with the #1 overall pick after a 3-13/4-12 campaign.  Of course, that's viscerally upsetting since no Bills fan wants to be subjected to bad Bills football all season long.  But is it really the worst fate we can suffer?

 

Buffalo, through mostly deft trades (getting a 2nd for a WR the Rams didn't/couldn't even re-sign, getting the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick for a recently oft-injured OT on a big $$$ deal, getting the 65th overall pick for a QB they'd otherwise have released), skillfully accumulated six 1st-3rd-round picks this past Draft... and then condensed those into just three players after trading five of those picks for Allen/Edmunds.  I'm not critical (right now; time will tell) of their decision, but clearly they believed in those guys enough to kick the can on the road on filling out this roster with competent O-lineman, bonafide receiving threats, and more.

 

McBeane knows this team manifestly isn't good enough or deep enough- that's also why they're willing to absorb a whopping $52 million in dead cap this season.  They also probably accurately recognize that last year's Playoff berth, while real and deserved, was always going to be difficult to duplicate with inexperience at QB, the unexpected exodus of our best O-linemen, and an absolutely unforgiving schedule that features 5 of our first 7 on the road (quality teams too) with the third home game being against the Patriots... in primetime... where they typically embarrass us.

 

IMO, this year is strictly about the development of Allen, Edmunds, and others in which our future is held.  It's great to have the "No Playoffs Since the Clinton Administration" monkey off our backs... and to just watch this team (hopefully) progress as the year goes on.  This team will definitely look different a year from now after adding a blue-chip talent in the top-3 (maybe even trading for a haul and out of #1 to a QB-needy team who emerges), a top-35 pick, ten total picks, and after we spend some of the $80+ million in cap space we'll have (which can grow to $95 million if McCoy & Hughes- then 31- are cut loose).

 

There's no pressure.  That will come, particularly on McBeane, but anything positively surprising this year is a bonus.  Because nothing- not McBeane's roster decisions or schedule- was about this year anyway.

[Fadingpain]

FFS.  This has been addressed in tons of threads.

 

If Allen emerges from this season as a franchise QB or a guy who looks like he is almost certainly going to become a franchise QB, it is a very successful season, regardless of record.

 

If Allen busts or looks like he is likely to bust, and we have a bad season...well...that's just another year in Bills Land.

 

 

[JaCrispy]

Exactly!!! I’ve been saying this for a while now...we are a rebuilding team but we have never had our tank year where we get a top 3 pick or are able to trade back for a boatload Of picks like the Browns or Rams or Jags...this team will need those things to help it get competitive more quickly imo.

Edited September 3, 2018 by JaCrispy

[vorpma]

8 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

It seems that most Bills fans- or at least those that post on the board- are starting to realize that a bullish 2018 outlook is more in the 7-9 range than realistically having a chance to repeat as a Playoff participant.  And clearly the Bills are a popular choice among the media, NFL pundits, and other teams' fanbases to be staring at the Bosa/Oliver sweepstakes with the #1 overall pick after a 3-13/4-12 campaign.  Of course, that's viscerally upsetting since no Bills fan wants to be subjected to bad Bills football all season long.  But is it really the worst fate we can suffer?

 

Buffalo, through mostly deft trades (getting a 2nd for a WR the Rams didn't/couldn't even re-sign, getting the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick for a recently oft-injured OT on a big $$$ deal, getting the 65th overall pick for a QB they'd otherwise have released), skillfully accumulated six 1st-3rd-round picks this past Draft... and then condensed those into just three players after trading five of those picks for Allen/Edmunds.  I'm not critical (right now; time will tell) of their decision, but clearly they believed in those guys enough to kick the can on the road on filling out this roster with competent O-lineman, bonafide receiving threats, and more.

 

McBeane knows this team manifestly isn't good enough or deep enough- that's also why they're willing to absorb a whopping $52 million in dead cap this season.  They also probably accurately recognize that last year's Playoff berth, while real and deserved, was always going to be difficult to duplicate with inexperience at QB, the unexpected exodus of our best O-linemen, and an absolutely unforgiving schedule that features 5 of our first 7 on the road (quality teams too) with the third home game being against the Patriots... in primetime... where they typically embarrass us.

 

IMO, this year is strictly about the development of Allen, Edmunds, and others in which our future is held.  It's great to have the "No Playoffs Since the Clinton Administration" monkey off our backs... and to just watch this team (hopefully) progress as the year goes on.  This team will definitely look different a year from now after adding a blue-chip talent in the top-3 (maybe even trading for a haul and out of #1 to a QB-needy team who emerges), a top-35 pick, ten total picks, and after we spend some of the $80+ million in cap space we'll have (which can grow to $95 million if McCoy & Hughes- then 31- are cut loose).

 

There's no pressure.  That will come, particularly on McBeane, but anything positively surprising this year is a bonus.  Because nothing- not McBeane's roster decisions or schedule- was about this year anyway.

Really good post but be prepared to be attacked!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

9 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

It seems that most Bills fans- or at least those that post on the board- are starting to realize that a bullish 2018 outlook is more in the 7-9 range than realistically having a chance to repeat as a Playoff participant.  And clearly the Bills are a popular choice among the media, NFL pundits, and other teams' fanbases to be staring at the Bosa/Oliver sweepstakes with the #1 overall pick after a 3-13/4-12 campaign.  Of course, that's viscerally upsetting since no Bills fan wants to be subjected to bad Bills football all season long.  But is it really the worst fate we can suffer?

 

Buffalo, through mostly deft trades (getting a 2nd for a WR the Rams didn't/couldn't even re-sign, getting the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick for a recently oft-injured OT on a big $$$ deal, getting the 65th overall pick for a QB they'd otherwise have released), skillfully accumulated six 1st-3rd-round picks this past Draft... and then condensed those into just three players after trading five of those picks for Allen/Edmunds.  I'm not critical (right now; time will tell) of their decision, but clearly they believed in those guys enough to kick the can on the road on filling out this roster with competent O-lineman, bonafide receiving threats, and more.

 

McBeane knows this team manifestly isn't good enough or deep enough- that's also why they're willing to absorb a whopping $52 million in dead cap this season.  They also probably accurately recognize that last year's Playoff berth, while real and deserved, was always going to be difficult to duplicate with inexperience at QB, the unexpected exodus of our best O-linemen, and an absolutely unforgiving schedule that features 5 of our first 7 on the road (quality teams too) with the third home game being against the Patriots... in primetime... where they typically embarrass us.

 

IMO, this year is strictly about the development of Allen, Edmunds, and others in which our future is held.  It's great to have the "No Playoffs Since the Clinton Administration" monkey off our backs... and to just watch this team (hopefully) progress as the year goes on.  This team will definitely look different a year from now after adding a blue-chip talent in the top-3 (maybe even trading for a haul and out of #1 to a QB-needy team who emerges), a top-35 pick, ten total picks, and after we spend some of the $80+ million in cap space we'll have (which can grow to $95 million if McCoy & Hughes- then 31- are cut loose).

 

There's no pressure.  That will come, particularly on McBeane, but anything positively surprising this year is a bonus.  Because nothing- not McBeane's roster decisions or schedule- was about this year anyway.

 

Hope you brought a fireproof suit. The flames will be incoming shortly.

 

[nucci]

Who will you spend the $80M in cap space on? Who do you think will be available? Every year it's always about future years...

[JaCrispy]

6 minutes ago, nucci said:

Who will you spend the $80M in cap space on? Who do you think will be available? Every year it's always about future years...

Two of the top OL available, whoever that will be.

Edited September 3, 2018 by JaCrispy

[Dkollidas]

This is exactly right. I don’t think they’ll be terrible (I’m thinking they’ll finish with 5-7 wins) and that’s fine. I’m looking for a few things...

 

1. Peterman (long shot), or Allen to play and show evidence of franchise or at least strong starter capability.

 

2. Defense to continue to improve. They invested money here and it should show up a bit. Between Lotulelei & Edmunds the run defense should be stronger.

 

3. A hope for me is that one of they younger TE’s (hopefully Croom), turn into an offensive weapon. Danilo was in NE for a long time and that offense uses a lot of multiple TE sets. Seeing one of those guys become a weapon, allowing Clay to be used In different ways (H-Back, etc), could really give the offense a different look considering how weak they are at WR.

 

-With the money they’ll have at their disposal next year, and a pick in the 5-12 range, they could add a couple solid OL starters, and a WR and still have some nice cap room to work with. Which I think is their plan. This off-season they will get players that will fit the offense they want build around Allen.

[Skins Malone]

58 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Exactly!!! I’ve been saying this for a while now...we are a rebuilding team but we have never had our tank year where we get a top 3 pick or are able to trade back for a boatload Of picks like the Browns or Rams or Jags...this team will need those things to help it get competitive more quickly imo.

Really?  Marcel Dareus was drafted third overall.  Not the best outcome either.

 

 

[BillsPride12]

If we bottom out this year and get our "Dahlin" in the draft I'd be fine with it.  

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

FFS.  This has been addressed in tons of threads.

 

If Allen emerges from this season as a franchise QB or a guy who looks like he is almost certainly going to become a franchise QB, it is a very successful season, regardless of record.

 

If Allen busts or looks like he is likely to bust, and we have a bad season...well...that's just another year in Bills Land.

 

 

Yes. -and no..

Its certainly refreshing to read a well thought out and articulate account of this which we face. It’s fairly evident we’ll have a losing season and this alone upsets me. We’re all aware of the unforeseen OL losses and the ca$h situation that handcuffs replacing them. Otherwise, this has been the plan from the onset; Have enough skill and motivated players to compete while shedding dead dollars. 

But if Allen doesn’t play, what will anyone learn heading into a promising ‘19? 

We’ll lose and likely a lot this season. I doubt Peterman will be the scapegoat because there’s only so much talent to work with.

Props to you, OP. You’ve helped me accept this inevitability better.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Every season is tough.  

 

It ain’t no cake wall 

[Midwest1981]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Who will you spend the $80M in cap space on? Who do you think will be available? Every year it's always about future years...

Clearly the $80-90 million dollars of cap space won’t be spent in one offseason, nor should it be since there won’t be the crop to justify it. But the Jaguars were able to be significant players in FA for four-straight offseasons (2015-2018), bringing in Malik Jackson, A.J. Bouye, Barry Church, Andrew Norwell, Julius Thomas, etc., because of the ability to roll over cap in the CBA (which will remain in place at least until 2021 and likely beyond). And Jacksonville debunked the notion, popularized by Washington early this millennium, that you can’t effectively assemble a Playoff team (mostly) through FA.

 

I’m not saying that Buffalo’s Playoff hopes largely lie in what they do with their cap space- it’ll just have to supplement what becomes of Allen, Edmunds, White, and future high picks.

 

But there’s no reason this spring we can’t or won’t add, say, an Ali Marpet to play LG next to Dawkins, plus add 2-3 other capable starters, spending about half of what we’re allotted, and then rolling $40-50 million into 2020 to allow us to do the same then. 

 

We still can’t waste the $$$ so we have to spend wisely and responsibly. But unquestionably the cap space should help.

Edited September 3, 2018 by Midwest1981

[NoSaint]

Ultimately, just getting in isn’t that exciting of a goal. Either you are a contender, in purgatory, building or failing miserably. 

 

Outside of busting up the statistical anomaly of not reaching the playoffs in our 20 year purgatory, last year didn’t change our status much. If allen is the dude, this could be our first major change in status since 99, even if it’s a non playoff season. It would be exciting to be building a contender, even if that’s a half step back in the win column this season. 

[Lfod]

I like Sean McDermott. The team under his management broke the drought in his first year as HC with a bum OC and a running QB on offense. I think the team is in good hands. 

 

Do not sleep on the Bills. If Daboll can run an offense this team will be deadly. 

Edited September 3, 2018 by Lfod

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

Two of the top OL available, whoever that will be.

 

Well here are all the Olinemen with expiring contracts next season.  Im sure most of the top linemen will be re-signed, but their contracts expire next season none the less.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/offensive-line/

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

This is exactly right. I don’t think they’ll be terrible (I’m thinking they’ll finish with 5-7 wins) and that’s fine. I’m looking for a few things...

 

1. Peterman (long shot), or Allen to play and show evidence of franchise or at least strong starter capability.

 

2. Defense to continue to improve. They invested money here and it should show up a bit. Between Lotulelei & Edmunds the run defense should be stronger.

 

3. A hope for me is that one of they younger TE’s (hopefully Croom), turn into an offensive weapon. Danilo was in NE for a long time and that offense uses a lot of multiple TE sets.

If those 3 things happen, I’d be surprised if we don’t make the playoffs again.

[greeneblitz]

This season is already set up for failure by McDermott, by starting Nathan Peterman we instantly have the worst QB in the NFL by a mile, which means it's gonna be a bad season, the big saving grace would be if came out of this season with and answer on Josh Allen,  instead he's relegated to friggen scout team reps, where he will develop exactly zero and we're gonna spend all of our real in season reps on a guy that can't make a single NFL throw to save his life. I dunno, looks like a complete loss this season and a big mess created ON POURPOSE by the HC.

[Dkollidas]

5 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

If those 3 things happen, I’d be surprised if we don’t make the playoffs again.

 

I think the line still struggles, the receivers aren’t of quality either. That and a tough schedule will limit their wins. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

I have a ton a careful analysis on the question posted in the very lengthy original post.  The answer:

 

Yes, a bad year will be a bad year.