Cover 1: Aaron Quinn's "Closing Arguments" Case for Starting Allen

[26CornerBlitz]

Closing Arguments: A Case for why the Bills Should Start Josh Allen

 

After the third preseason game, in which the Bills’ first-team offense and defense were dominated in every phase of the game, we are left wondering what changes will be made over the next two weeks leading up to the season opener against the Ravens, specifically in regards to the most discussed and overanalyzed position: quarterback.

 

So far this offseason there has been a legitimate quarterback competition. It started out as a three-way battle for the starting job between AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman, and Josh Allen. At the start of training camp, it appeared that Allen, more than the others, needed to earn his way up the ladder to get any type of significant practice with the first unit.

 

Over the last month, the competition has started to sort itself out. AJ McCarron appeared to be relatively pedestrian throughout the summer. Nathan Peterman had a nice summer, displaying what the Bills saw out of him during his first preseason. His quick release, timing, and putting together of the best drives with the starters of the preseason have made him a strong candidate to win the starting job. But then Josh Allen hit all the milestones that the staff needed to see from him, not only to gain more reps with the starting unit in practice, but also to be named the starter for the third, and typically most important, preseason game. While his first start didn’t yield ideal results — and his stat line looks pretty bad — there is still a very sound case to be made to hand over the reins of the starting quarterback spot to the first round pick.

 

Natural Ability

Progress

Keeping His Cool

Best Chance to Win

[Alphadawg7]

I agree with starting Allen too, and I was a guy all off season that felt we should sit him.  Not to take anything from what Nate has done for himself this preseason, but his stat line does not really reflect the whole story and I still feel his limitations will be an issue as a starter.  Where as Allen I feel will have plenty of ups and downs, especially behind this OL, but he has the ability to also make more things happen IMO and might as well get this kids progress moving forward.  He is further along than I expected, and this kid doesn't get rattled, so I dont feel too worried about him getting "ruined" like is commonly used around here.  

 

As far as Nate goes, here is why I feel the preseason STAT LINE is fools gold:

1. Only QB to turn the ball over, and should have multiple times if not been scrubs dropping INT's.  
   1. I dont want to hear about it being Ivory's fault either, if you say that its ONLY because you didn't watch the right angle where you can clearly see how poorly placed the ball was and how late it was.  If you are looking at the video where the camera was behind Nate looking right at Ivory and showing the exact ball placement, then you should stop defending NP immediately on this and go watch it.  It was 75% on NP.
2. He is going to be easy to gameplan for and defend against.  
   1. He can't be trusted on sideline throws unless he is on the run rolling that direction.  From the pocket he is pick 6 waiting to happen.  Thats 10 to 15% of each side of the field where he is not strong.  
   2. He isnt going to be a deep ball threat, and furthermore we dont have any deep threat WR's either.  
   3. So opposing defenses just need to focus on the short to medium strikes in the middle and less cheating to the sidelines or deep. That is going to make it easy to shut him down IMO if they can take away the short quick throw from him.  This is Trent Edwards all over again in terms of ease to figure out and shut down IMO.  
3. He never once faced a true first team defense.  He had one drive in the first preseason game that was good, but it was so vanilla it made our OL look solid.  It wasnt against the full starting D nor was there even a gameplay, not to mention KB was FIRED up with it being CAR and the Cam incident.  Very next drive he turns the ball over on 2nd pass.  His TD to KB was a beautiful throw, I will give him that.
4. All 3 QB's looked good against 2nd team defenses, but none have looked good against a first team because the OL has been atrocious, but again, Nate has not been on the field in a similar situation to what Allen and AJM faced last couple of weeks.  
5. Last week against Cleveland, his first pass was a dropped pick 6 by a guy who likely won't be on a roster next week.  Then on his TD pass, it was a blown coverage where Nick should have walked untouched into the end zone, but NP's pass was behind him making him slow and wait for it allowing the defender to have a chance to save the TD, but Nick broke the tackle.  My mom could have thrown that TD, and if it was better placed pass Nick is untouched into end zone.
6. This weeks TD was all created by Croom on a simple dump off.

I have nothing against NP, and if he wins the job I will be cheering for him week 1 to succeed.  I just don't have confidence he can be a quality starter or consistent in the NFL yet.  I would love it if he proved me wrong, means we would have a valuable trade chip too.  But last preseason this same fan base said he should start instead of TT after completing just 50% of his passes...they were wrong and he proved it on the field attempting 52 passes with 6 INT's and 3 fumbles over 3 appearances.  

 

Now I am hearing the same things again, but honestly I feel like Josh is the future, he is more ready than we expected, and we might as well put the more talented QB out there and let him take his lumps so he can be ready to take a big step forward in year 2 like Goff and Wentz did.

Edited August 28, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Soda Popinski]

I wanted to start the season with Allen, but let Peterman get killed behind that porous oline first.    We need to learn to block before we ruin a young QB. 

[Shaw66]

I agree with this analysis.  I think it's an accurate assessment of where Allen is.  

 

I disagree with conclusion.  The assessment establishes that Allen WILL be the best qb of the three, but it ignores the fact that Peterman has been consistently more effective.  Peterman gives the Bills a better chance to win the next game, preseason or not.  Until Allen can be consistently more effective, Peterman should play.

 

Will I be upset if McD goes with Allen?  Not at all.  He is close enough, and as the article suggests, he will learn a lot if he is playing.  I'd guess that if Allen starts, it will take him only half the season to catch up pass Peterman.  

 

But if you want to beat Baltimore, I'd start Peterman. 

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree with starting Allen too, and I was a guy all off season that felt we should sit him.  Not to take anything from what Nate has done for himself this preseason, but his stat line does not really reflect the whole story and I still feel his limitations will be an issue as a starter.  Where as Allen I feel will have plenty of ups and downs, especially behind this OL, but he has the ability to also make more things happen IMO and might as well get this kids progress moving forward.  He is further along than I expected, and this kid doesn't get rattled, so I dont feel too worried about him getting "ruined" like is commonly used around here.  

 

As far as Nate goes, here is why I feel the preseason STAT LINE is fools gold:

1. Only QB to turn the ball over, and should have multiple times if not been scrubs dropping INT's.  
   1. I dont want to hear about it being Ivory's fault either, if you say that its ONLY because you didn't watch the right angle where you can clearly see how poorly placed the ball was and how late it was.  If you are looking at the video where the camera was behind Nate looking right at Ivory and showing the exact ball placement, then you should stop defending NP immediately on this and go watch it.  It was 75% on NP.
2. He is going to be easy to gameplan for and defend against.  
   1. He can't be trusted on sideline throws unless he is on the run rolling that direction.  From the pocket he is pick 6 waiting to happen.  Thats 10 to 15% of each side of the field where he is not strong.  
   2. He isnt going to be a deep ball threat, and furthermore we dont have any deep threat WR's either.  
   3. So opposing defenses just need to focus on the short to medium strikes in the middle and less cheating to the sidelines or deep. That is going to make it easy to shut him down IMO if they can take away the short quick throw from him.  This is Trent Edwards all over again in terms of ease to figure out and shut down IMO.  
3. He never once faced a true first team defense.  He had one drive in the first preseason game that was good, but it was so vanilla it made our OL look solid.  It wasnt against the full starting D nor was there even a gameplay, not to mention KB was FIRED up with it being CAR and the Cam incident.  Very next drive he turns the ball over on 2nd pass.  His TD to KB was a beautiful throw, I will give him that.
4. All 3 QB's looked good abasing 2nd team defenses, but none have looked good against a first team because the OL has been atrocious, but again, Nate has not been on the field in a similar situation to what Allen and AJM faced last couple of weeks.  
5. Last week against Cleveland, his first pass was a dropped pick 6 by a guy who likely won't be on a roster next week.  Then on his TD pass, it was a blown coverage where Nick should have walked untouched into the end zone, but NP's pass was behind him making him slow and wait for it allowing the defender to have a chance to save the TD, but Nick broke the tackle.  My mom could have thrown that TD, and if it was better placed pass Nick is untouched into end zone.
6. This weeks TD was all created by Croom on a simple dump off.

I have nothing against NP, and if he wins the job I will be cheering for him week 1 to succeed.  I just don't have confidence he can be a quality starter or consistent in the NFL yet.  I would love it if he proved me wrong, means we would have a valuable trade chip too.  But last preseason this same fan base said he should start instead of TT after completing just 50% of his passes...they were wrong and he proved it on the field attempting 52 passes with 6 INT's and 3 fumbles over 3 appearances.  

 

Now I am hearing the same things again, but honestly I feel like Josh is the future, he is more ready than we expected, and we might as well put the more talented QB out there and let him take his lumps so he can be ready to take a big step forward in year 2 like Goff and Wentz did.

Good stuff.  You make the opposite argument and it make sense.  

 

I think Allen has been slow to get the ball out and Peterman hasn't.  Allen will learn, probably, but until he does, being slow to get ball out means he will be sacked a lot.  Sacks kill drives, and dead drives mean no points.  That's why I like Peterman for now.

 

Maybe we will see something different on Thursday.  

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this analysis.  I think it's an accurate assessment of where Allen is.  

 

I disagree with conclusion.  The assessment establishes that Allen WILL be the best qb of the three, but it ignores the fact that Peterman has been consistently more effective.  Peterman gives the Bills a better chance to win the next game, preseason or not.  Until Allen can be consistently more effective, Peterman should play.

 

Will I be upset if McD goes with Allen?  Not at all.  He is close enough, and as the article suggests, he will learn a lot if he is playing.  I'd guess that if Allen starts, it will take him only half the season to catch up pass Peterman.  

 

But if you want to beat Baltimore, I'd start Peterman. 

 

Huge difference between preseason and regular season with the QoC, speed of the game, complexity of coverage and pass rush games such as zone blitzes, twists, and stunts.  Peterman will be easier to game plan against given the limitations in his game.   

 

We'll see what the coaching staff decides. Either way it's Go Bills!

[Nihilarian]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Huge difference between preseason and regular season with the QoC, speed of the game, complexity of coverage and pass rush games such as zone blitzes, twists, and stunts.  Peterman will be easier to game plan against given the limitations in his game.   

 

We'll see what the coaching staff decides. Either way it's Go Bills!

I was a big Josh Allen fan before the draft and still am. That said, I think the guy better to start the year and take the heat is Peterman and then AJ McCarron.

 

That offensive line was not giving that rookie time to throw and with him being a rookie he made rookie mistakes against the Bengals. Both AJ and Nate have actual NFL starting experience and might actually survive those first few games.

 

Who starts the season at QB this year is meaningless in the bigger picture. It's who survives to become the franchise QB to take this team to a championship is what matters. 

[GoBills808]

I am honestly not at all sure Peterman gives the Bills the best chance to win at Baltimore. I think McCarron is the safest choice. That Baltimore secondary is nasty, even without Smith. For the life of me I cannot see why, if the choice is between Allen and Peterman, you wouldn't start the rookie. He can make all the throws, has his head on straight, just took a beating from a very tough d line and came out spouting veteran-level cliches...what does Peterman offer that is better suited to beating a team like the Ravens at this point? A whopping .5 game of regular season experience?

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Huge difference between preseason and regular season with the QoC, speed of the game, complexity of coverage and pass rush games such as zone blitzes, twists, and stunts.  Peterman will be easier to game plan against given the limitations in his game.   

 

We'll see what the coaching staff decides. Either way it's Go Bills!

Yeah. Its just hard to know what's causing everything.  Apparently Allen was holding the ball because he wasn't getting out of the huddle fasten enough to give him time to look over the defense. If that's an Allen problem, and Peterman does it better, that's a big difference.  

 

The point is that rookies have a lot to learn to do just the basics, and if Allen isn't over that threshold, he just won't be able to produce very well. 

 

Rookie qbs lead the league in sacks every year.  They just can't handle all that's on their plate.  Allen looks close - I like his poise especially, but as long as he's killing drives like he did Sunday, he isn't likely to win games.

 

Yes, the o line was bad, but it's been bad for Peterman too.  Peterman is getting the ball out.  

 

As I said, let's see how Allen does Thursday. 

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I am honestly not at all sure Peterman gives the Bills the best chance to win at Baltimore. I think McCarron is the safest choice. That Baltimore secondary is nasty, even without Smith. For the life of me I cannot see why, if the choice is between Allen and Peterman, you wouldn't start the rookie. He can make all the throws, has his head on straight, just took a beating from a very tough d line and came out spouting veteran-level cliches...what does Peterman offer that is better suited to beating a team like the Ravens at this point? A whopping .5 game of regular season experience?

 

 

I think it's Peterman because he clearly has been the best on the field.  He has been very effective.  Why play AJ when he hasn't shown anything?

 

I think it's between Allen and Peterman.  I'm happy either way.  I'd start Peterman until Allen shows me he has learned more about handling the whole job. 

[26CornerBlitz]

7 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I was a big Josh Allen fan before the draft and still am. That said, I think the guy better to start the year and take the heat is Peterman and then AJ McCarron.

 

That offensive line was not giving that rookie time to throw and with him being a rookie he made rookie mistakes against the Bengals. Both AJ and Nate have actual NFL starting experience and might actually survive those first few games.

 

Who starts the season at QB this year is meaningless in the bigger picture. It's who survives to become the franchise QB to take this team to a championship is what matters. 

 

 AJM has 4 all of starts to his credit in his 4 seasons as a pro while Peterman doesn't even have a full game as a starter after the pull in LA and his concussion in the Indy snow game.    Experience is an overrated factor as a consideration in this particular case.

 

With regard to pass pro, they will have to game plan and scheme for OL deficiencies irrespective of who the starting QB is.

Edited August 28, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Figster]

28 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

I wanted to start the season with Allen, but let Peterman get killed behind that porous oline first.    We need to learn to block before we ruin a young QB. 

Its as simple as that Pops,

 

thanks

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

I think it's Peterman because he clearly has been the best on the field.  He has been very effective.  Why play AJ when he hasn't shown anything?

 

I think it's between Allen and Peterman.  I'm happy either way.  I'd start Peterman until Allen shows me he has learned more about handling the whole job. 

I am not sold on McCarron in any way shape or form, and I guess I wouldn't hate Peterman starting although I just can't be convinced he's any better an option than Allen at this point. He's had a solid preseason but that doesn't really resonate with me...other than his demeanor and apparent work ethic (I think it's clear the reports of him working hard this offseason were accurate) I don't think he's a better option than Allen, even if only because I'd rather the guy who they're going to be building around to be out there taking his lumps than the guy who's going to be his backup. Not mentioning that, again, the Ravens secondary is a tall order for any one of the three we end up trotting out there.

[Spiderweb]

25 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

I wanted to start the season with Allen, but let Peterman get killed behind that porous oline first.    We need to learn to block before we ruin a young QB. 

10-4... Our O-line resembles anything but. Loss of RI and EW has been huge. Also, Glenn's trade was another loss of the O-line, especially if he can stay healthy this year. Letting Henderson walk damaged depth.

 

McBean, to date you have failed the Bills horrifically on both lines.To win, both need to be competent to strong.

 

Goingto be a rough year especially with the brutal schedule we have to begin with. Hate to say it, and I'd be first to admit I'm wrong, but bleak is a step up from where this thing could go. 

[njbuff]

Don't worry about the starter (whomever that is)................

 

the back ups will be on HIGH ALERT with this historically bad OL the Bills will be trotting out. Vlad alone is a disaster at LG and a season killer right there.

 

It infuriates me that Vlad has a spot on this roster. It is my biggest complaint about McDermott. An orange cone is more useful than Vlad.

[Nihilarian]

16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 AJM has 4 all of starts to his credit in his 4 seasons as a pro while Peterman doesn't even have a full game as a starter after the pull in LA and his concussion in the Indy snow game.    Experience is an overrated factor as a consideration in this particular case.

 

With regard to pass pro, they will have to game plan and scheme for OL deficiencies irrespective of who the starting QB is.

I'd still rather see AJ McCarron. Peterman getting battered, injured, concussed for the first half of this season than the #7 draft pick that the team spent quite a bit to move up to get him. 

 

You can scheme all you want and it isn't going to help this slew of scrubs on the line pass block any better. I'm almost starting to think that perhaps the team will be signing Colin Kaepernick by week 6 to replace the Bills QB's on IR. He might actually be able to escape the rush to survive the rest of the season. 

 

[K-9]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I am honestly not at all sure Peterman gives the Bills the best chance to win at Baltimore. I think McCarron is the safest choice. That Baltimore secondary is nasty, even without Smith. For the life of me I cannot see why, if the choice is between Allen and Peterman, you wouldn't start the rookie. He can make all the throws, has his head on straight, just took a beating from a very tough d line and came out spouting veteran-level cliches...what does Peterman offer that is better suited to beating a team like the Ravens at this point? A whopping .5 game of regular season experience?

 

 

I'd rather see Allen, but Peterman has had an entire year of NFL experience, which is comprised of more than just the games he played. He's had a year of meetings, learning defenses, and breaking down opponents' schemes. That's invaluable. 

 

You raise a great point about McCarron as he's very familiar with the Ravens given his experience in Cinci. 

 

But, given our sieve-like OL, I think the premium is on that QB that can get the ball out faster than anyone else. Right now, that's Peterman for better or worse. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

How many separate Closing Argument threads do we need @26CornerBlitz   ?? 

 

 

 

we say the same stuff for each writer.  

 

 

Edited August 28, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[26CornerBlitz]

And Still pathetic!

[whatdrought]

Players play. 

 

I was fine with Allen sitting when we thought he would be a huge project, but now it's become obvious that he is farther along than many thought. That being said, I think you help your offense by putting him out there. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

And Still pathetic!

pathetic is flooding the boards.  

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

So amusing to have a TSW Stalker.