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NEW NARRATIVE ON TYROD


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18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Passing yards actually are not well-correlated or predictive of wins.  There is a slight negative correlation between passing yards and winning (eg more passing yards = slightly more likely team loses).

While points scored are certainly important, I haven't encountered a particular bias towards passing TDs.  TDs scored matter, sure.

So I can't quite agree with you that no other stats are as important as those 3. 

 

Go run the anaylsis of games won while throwing for 200 yards or less. I would bet that there is a correlation with losing there.

 

Also run the analysis of games won while throwing less than 2 TD's a game. I would also bet there is a correlation of losing there.

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2 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

Go run the anaylsis of games won while throwing for 200 yards or less. I would bet that there is a correlation with losing there.

 

Also run the analysis of games won while throwing less than 2 TD's a game. I would also bet there is a correlation of losing there.

 

I've actually posted my analyses in the past.  Since you're the one making the assertion that no other stats are as important as those three, would you care to support your claims by posting YOUR analyses?  I'm sure you must have 'em, so should only be incremental work to put 'em in postable form.

Last year, there were 3 teams which had more than 2 passing TD per game - the Eagles, the Seahawks, and the Patriots.  Since one of those teams had a 9-7 record, and 13 other teams posted a win record equal or better than that, I'll be interested to see that correlation between losing and less than 2 TD per game.

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11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Passing yards actually are not well-correlated or predictive of wins.  There is a slight negative correlation between passing yards and winning (eg more passing yards = slightly more likely team loses).

While points scored are certainly important, I haven't encountered a particular bias towards passing TDs.  TDs scored matter, sure.

So I can't quite agree with you that no other stats are as important as those 3. 

Err...I hate to jump in like this but after reading through this thread I felt compelled to offer my take on statistical analysis of QBs with regard to the most 'important' stats.

 

It's true that passing yards do not correlate with wins. However, to use that lack of (or negative if you will) correlation as an indictment of their usefulness in determining actual QB quality would be a mistake for two reasons IMHO. First, because as we all know, winning teams will often elect to stop passing the ball at a rate they normally would in an attempt to run out the clock. This tends to skew the passing yards/win rate correlation statistic. Secondly, while you may not be comfortable saying more passing yards (I'm using YPG here for a given season) are necessarily indicative of whether or not your team wins the game (and I'd agree with you there)...I've always found the best way to look at position-specific statistics is in a vacuum. Meaning that if you're going to look at passing yards statistically (a statistic fairly specific, although not completely so, to QBs), your purpose should mostly be to compare how passing yards or YPG is indicative of the quality of that QB rather than whether they're a function of winning the game (which takes into account SO many other factors that a negative correlation between passing YPG and winning, for several reasons, starts to look like background chatter). And to that point, pretty much year in and year out, YPG is a fair indicator of a QB's quality for a given season. Look it up. Top 5 QBs in a given year by YPG, and bottom 5. It's a decent statistic if you are looking for a rough estimate of who played quarterback well (or poorly) in a given year.

 

However, as @BuffaloHokie13 knows, I prefer ANY/A as a quarterback-specific statistic because the formula makes the most sense to me personally, and because it actually DOES correlate with wins to boot. I think it's the least biased statistic overall for judging QB play. Short of ANY/A, I would just go by what Hokie says...his system is pretty intuitive as well.

 

TLDR: all stats matter, just probably not in the way you think they do.

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Also, while Tyrod is a very limited passer, his best attribute is throwing deep.  That’s why the Sammy trade completely killed him (Jordan Matthews!).  If Josh Gordon is able to play, Tyrod will make some big plays and help them win some games.

 

but he is clearly better than AJ and Peterman.  

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Just now, GoBills808 said:

Err...I hate to jump in like this but after reading through this thread I felt compelled to offer my take on statistical analysis of QBs with regard to the most 'important' stats.

 

It's true that passing yards do not correlate with wins. However, to use that lack of (or negative if you will) correlation as an indictment of their usefulness in determining actual QB quality would be a mistake for two reasons IMHO. First, because as we all know, winning teams will often elect to stop passing the ball at a rate they normally would in an attempt to run out the clock. This tends to skew the passing yards/win rate correlation statistic. Secondly, while you may not be comfortable saying more passing yards (I'm using YPG here for a given season) are necessarily indicative of whether or not your team wins the game (and I'd agree with you there)...I've always found the best way to look at position-specific statistics is in a vacuum. Meaning that if you're going to look at passing yards statistically (a statistic fairly specific, although not completely so, to QBs), your purpose should mostly be to compare how passing yards or YPG is indicative of the quality of that QB rather than whether they're a function of winning the game (which takes into account SO many other factors that a negative correlation between passing YPG and winning, for several reasons, starts to look like background chatter). And to that point, pretty much year in and year out, YPG is a fair indicator of a QB's quality for a given season. Look it up. Top 5 QBs in a given year by YPG, and bottom 5. It's a decent statistic if you are looking for a rough estimate of who played quarterback well (or poorly) in a given year.

 

However, as @BuffaloHokie13 knows, I prefer ANY/A as a quarterback-specific statistic because the formula makes the most sense to me personally, and because it actually DOES correlate with wins to boot. I think it's the least biased statistic overall for judging QB play. Short of ANY/A, I would just go by what Hokie says...his system is pretty intuitive as well.

 

TLDR: all stats matter, just probably not in the way you think they do.

There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics.

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17 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m sure those coaches yelled at him with “never throw the ball over the middle!” And “you can only throw to Clay against the Dolphins!” Stuff like that. Hey, I like the guy, but he made Peterman look good in several ways. Now, he was a friggin’ magician at escaping from chaos in the pocket....and with our OLine that was a plus. 

Actually many times he escaped from messes of his own making by not throwing the ball when he was supposed to.

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10 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

You’re still in love with a qb who can’t pass.   

 

Follow your heart to Cleveland.    Then come back to us once he’s benched again.

 

Im no artist.     Some other Bills fan who got tired of Tyrods crappy passing made it.  

 

I'm a Bills fan first and foremost... always have been.

 

I cheer and root hard and loud for whoever is under center for the Bills. 

 

Once they're no longer a Buffalo Bill, I might only passively watch. I haven't watched any of Taylor's preseason snaps outside of the Bills preseason game... unlike the pathetic folks on here I've noticed who like to go into Cleveland Browns preseason game day threads (why the hell do those even exist???) and bash him.

 

The reality is you oughtta head on over to the Browns message boards because your entire persona seems to revolve around Trolling Taylor. What on earth, do you do with yourself now?

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23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I've actually posted my analyses in the past.  Since you're the one making the assertion that no other stats are as important as those three, would you care to support your claims by posting YOUR analyses?  I'm sure you must have 'em, so should only be incremental work to put 'em in postable form.

Last year, there were 3 teams which had more than 2 passing TD per game - the Eagles, the Seahawks, and the Patriots.  Since one of those teams had a 9-7 record, and 13 other teams posted a win record equal or better than that, I'll be interested to see that correlation between losing and less than 2 TD per game.

 

I didn't say I had done the analysis. I said I would bet what that analysis would show.

 

I did just look at teams from the last 4 years and average passing yards per game, and looked at which teams made the playoffs.

 

Teams who averaged less than 200 passing yards per game who made the playoffs from 2014-2017 = 4 total (three of them from last year, including Buffalo)

 

Teams who averaged more than 250 yards passing per game who made the playoffs from 2014-2017 = 21

 

So I'd say passing yards do matter. You are much less likely to make the playoffs if you throw for less than 200 yards a game than if you exceed the averages by throwing 250 or more yards per game.

 

(FYI, there were 10 teams to average less than 200 yards passing in 2017, and 7 who averaged more than 250 a game)

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2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Actually many times he escaped from messes of his own making by not throwing the ball when he was supposed to.

 

Absolutely! That was certainly part of it at times. Plenty of blame to go around, but I don’t hate the guy by any means. He just wasn’t going to take us to the promised land. 

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14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I'm a Bills fan first and foremost... always have been.

 

I cheer and root hard and loud for whoever is under center for the Bills. 

 

Once they're no longer a Buffalo Bill, I might only passively watch. I haven't watched any of Taylor's preseason snaps outside of the Bills preseason game... unlike the pathetic folks on here I've noticed who like to go into Cleveland Browns preseason game day threads (why the hell do those even exist???) and bash him.

 

The reality is you oughtta head on over to the Browns message boards because your entire persona seems to revolve around Trolling Taylor. What on earth, do you do with yourself now?

 

Im confused.    I thought you were the one butthurt by some cartoon ???

 

Allen era is here / thread 

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1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes... Allen era is here.

 

Why are you so obsessed with talking about Taylor?

 

You know your transplantbillsfan right ? 

 

Read that second sentence again and have a laugh.   

 

Sorry the cartoon triggered you, I should have thought of your feelings first.   

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