The Bills Are Seven Point Dogs in Week 1

[26CornerBlitz]

Which NFL teams are the best bets to cover in Week 1?

 

NFL bettors rejoice: The preseason is over, and you can finally turn your attention to football that really matters. Week 1 offers plenty of intriguing matchups, a few of which have caught our attention as enticing gambling opportunities. Here are our four best bets against the spread for 2018's opening weekend of NFL action.

 

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

 

Sun. 9/9, 1:00 p.m. EST

 

The Pick: Baltimore -7

 

We won't know for sure until they take the field, but this year's Buffalo Bills roster looks a lot weaker than the one that snuck into the playoffs last season. Nathan Peterman is your Week 1 starter at QB, which is really all you need to know about the state of the quarterback position in Buffalo. The Bills will need to rely on the run more than ever before this season, but the team has lost key pieces of its 2017 offensive line: Eric Wood, Cordy Glenn and Richie Incognito. LeSean McCoy seems set to play at Baltimore despite facing off-the-field controversy, but he hit the dreaded age of 30 in July.

 

The Ravens—who the Bills narrowly edged for a wild-card spot in 2017—have improved in the offseason, adding more receiving weapons for Joe Flacco. John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead can take advantage of a Buffalo D that will be on the field for extended stretches of time in the late-summer heat, and Baltimore will once again trot out a stout defense. At home, John Harbaugh’s team poses a challenge to any opponent, and it should make quick work of a Bills team that has yet to find its way. That you can get them laying just 7 is found money. –Ed McGrogan

 

[Big Turk]

On 8/21/2018 at 3:16 PM, The Red King said:

It makes sense.  Look, you normally get three points for being the home team.  So, really, the odds are just saying the Ravens are three points better.  Now, both teams finished 9-7 last year, with Buffalo edging them out of the playoff spot based on strength of victory tiebreaker.  Since then, Buffalo lost talent on the offensive line.  Worse, our starting QB is either going to be a second-year player who threw five picks in a half, or a rookie that hasn't played a regular-season game yet.  Considering all that, I think it's fair that the Ravens are six-point favorites.  Don't get me wrong, I think Buffalo is actually the better team and might just win it...but from a neutral standpoint setting odds, it's really not that outrageous a line.

Ravens D was quite prodigious last year at putting up points as well...

[row_33]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Ravens D was quite prodigious last year at putting up points as well...

 

I’n not in agreement with many here who think the Bills will win.

 

 

[Scott7975]

On ‎8‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 3:11 PM, billspro said:

Really? The Ravens are not that good. They are one of the easier teams on our schedule. It will be tough to get the win with a rookie QB on the road but our D should shut that offence down. It will probably be a close game decided by a field goal. If we stop their running game we will win.

 

When did you see our starting defense shut down a running game?

[MJS]

Two bad offenses. I'm not sure the winning team will outscore the losing team by more than a few points.

[Ol Dirty B]

On 8/21/2018 at 3:03 PM, BigBuff423 said:

Good....fine.....let the whole NFL sleep on the Bills and then, BAM! Smacked right in the mouth....somewhere in the middle of the season, there will be talking points and discussions by the pundits and "experts" about the Bills over-achieving when all the fans will simply say, "You have to trust the process". 

 

And yet you nor any of the other Bills fans who wrap themselves up in this fairy tale could define what the process is.

 

If they start losing is he going to say that is part of the process. I'd advise him to stop using that term because if he doesn't win, it'll bury him. Fall short on sales, productivity or whatever you are measured by and trot out it's part of the process to your boss.

 

You'll get torn a new one.

19 minutes ago, MJS said:

Two bad offenses. I'm not sure the winning team will outscore the losing team by more than a few points.

 

I like the under. I'm also awful at gambling on anything other than soccer.

Edited September 4, 2018 by Ol Dirty B

[row_33]

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

When did you see our starting defense shut down a running game?

 

1991

[mannc]

10 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Which NFL teams are the best bets to cover in Week 1?

 

NFL bettors rejoice: The preseason is over, and you can finally turn your attention to football that really matters. Week 1 offers plenty of intriguing matchups, a few of which have caught our attention as enticing gambling opportunities. Here are our four best bets against the spread for 2018's opening weekend of NFL action.

 

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

 

Sun. 9/9, 1:00 p.m. EST

 

The Pick: Baltimore -7

 

We won't know for sure until they take the field, but this year's Buffalo Bills roster looks a lot weaker than the one that snuck into the playoffs last season. Nathan Peterman is your Week 1 starter at QB, which is really all you need to know about the state of the quarterback position in Buffalo. The Bills will need to rely on the run more than ever before this season, but the team has lost key pieces of its 2017 offensive line: Eric Wood, Cordy Glenn and Richie Incognito. LeSean McCoy seems set to play at Baltimore despite facing off-the-field controversy, but he hit the dreaded age of 30 in July.

 

The Ravens—who the Bills narrowly edged for a wild-card spot in 2017—have improved in the offseason, adding more receiving weapons for Joe Flacco. John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead can take advantage of a Buffalo D that will be on the field for extended stretches of time in the late-summer heat, and Baltimore will once again trot out a stout defense. At home, John Harbaugh’s team poses a challenge to any opponent, and it should make quick work of a Bills team that has yet to find its way. That you can get them laying just 7 is found money. –Ed McGrogan

 

Well, when you put it that way...

[CommonCents]

On 8/31/2018 at 4:40 PM, ScottLaw said:

I'm taking that bet.

 

I think Browns get the outright victory. 

Sounds like a horrible idea. Browns played them tough last opener, the betting public will be all over the Browns. Good luck. Pitt by 14 plus. 

[Bring it]

I’m not a betting man but that Houston game seems to have upset all the way. Patriots always struggle out of the gate!

[BigBuff423]

5 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

And yet you nor any of the other Bills fans who wrap themselves up in this fairy tale could define what the process is.

 

If they start losing is he going to say that is part of the process. I'd advise him to stop using that term because if he doesn't win, it'll bury him. Fall short on sales, productivity or whatever you are measured by and trot out it's part of the process to your boss.

 

You'll get torn a new one.

 

I like the under. I'm also awful at gambling on anything other than soccer.

 

Sincere question, are you a Bills fan? Because you say, "you nor any of the other Bills fans"....if not, why come here? If you are, then let me answer your question with an answer:

 

"The process" is the aggregation of effort, focus, resources, and design that initially eliminates any person that does not embrace the team first mentality, who is not willing to work hard every day at all things assigned, and whose general position within the team causes the team to be weaker. Then, the process uses the same set of aforementioned standards to begin to illuminate those players, coaches, evaluators, front office staff, and support staff that accomplish those tasks with a team first approach and who will utilize their talent and motivation to excel to achieve a collective outcome that no one could attain without a unified and singularly focused intent. It is taking all the parts and making it greater that its total by exponentially improving each individual part because the whole is working cohesively. That means the players, not just their talent but all of the previously stated traits, the coaches and the entire staff including scouts and administrative support staff, work as one entity making the individual less important for their specific success but increasing their effectiveness through a sacrificial and selfless drive for the greater good of the team. The process to sustain this model is merely a continuous cycling of elimination and acquisition of the players and staff whom fit within the paradigm and advance the only metric of success that matters in the NFL: a championship.

 

The process is essentially cutting off the dead branches, pruning the good ones to bring out a more productive tree, and continuously finding the mulch, fertilizer, essential nutrients to the soil, sunshine to shade ratio, and basic water to insure a vibrant and healthy environment that allows the tree, or in this analogy the organization / franchise, to thrive. But more to the point, the process, is exactly as it sounds. The culture change, the player development, the coaching synergy, and the front office efficacy is NOT an overnight event.....it takes time and a didactic march toward improvement. Sometimes, as in battle, you must retreat to a higher ground, gather your resources and rally the troops, wait for reinforcements, before you advance once again. 

 

I have no idea how this year will turn out. But what I truly believe is in the process because it's been a mild success thus far and no the playoff drought snap does NOT buy Beane and McD 10 years. But I do think it gets them 3 more without calling into question their methods unless this team does a total Chip Kelly tank. What should also be noted is not just "us Bills fans", but reports coming out of training camp were virtually every national media outlet who sent someone to training camp came away impressed with Sean and Beane and how their "process" is moving along. I would hate to throw away this year and say, "Eh, we made the playoffs last year so who cares with this year"....because great organizations don't do that and I don't think they're doing that at all. But, I also think they know that they have to swallow all this dead Cap money in order to move forward in a healthy way. Looking at the trades and roster cuts, I think that was Beane's primary focus - outside of the Draft - this off-season. Eliminate the dead wood and prepare to grow organically and in a way that is healthy for sustainable success in the future. 

 

Long post, but you came in poked the bear and presumed someone would just come in with a couple sentences telling you to "f" off.....I am saying that....but politely and with more reasoned insight, albeit IMHO. Btw, whatever team you're rooting for - because obviously it's not the Bills - enjoy the season.

[hemma]

I hope Murphy has found an excellent groin masseuse, because we will need a pass rush.

Flacco is healthy this year and unless he gets pressured, can dice up even our solid secondary.

[Kirby Jackson]

It was -4 when I was at the casino on Saturday. Would have been a good middle. 

[Bills Pimpin']

52 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Sounds like a horrible idea. Browns played them tough last opener, the betting public will be all over the Browns. Good luck. Pitt by 14 plus. 

This. Hard Knocks will put Joe Public all over the Browns. Almosst no better angle than playing the fave against a public backed dog. Love the Steelers this weekend.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It was -4 when I was at the casino on Saturday. Would have been a good middle. 

one book I saw had it open at Bills -3 

 

my bad 3 point dogs.  

Edited September 4, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[SoTier]

27 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Sincere question, are you a Bills fan? Because you say, "you nor any of the other Bills fans"....if not, why come here? If you are, then let me answer your question with an answer:

 

"The process" is the aggregation of effort, focus, resources, and design that initially eliminates any person that does not embrace the team first mentality, who is not willing to work hard every day at all things assigned, and whose general position within the team causes the team to be weaker. Then, the process uses the same set of aforementioned standards to begin to illuminate those players, coaches, evaluators, front office staff, and support staff that accomplish those tasks with a team first approach and who will utilize their talent and motivation to excel to achieve a collective outcome that no one could attain without a unified and singularly focused intent. It is taking all the parts and making it greater that its total by exponentially improving each individual part because the whole is working cohesively. That means the players, not just their talent but all of the previously stated traits, the coaches and the entire staff including scouts and administrative support staff, work as one entity making the individual less important for their specific success but increasing their effectiveness through a sacrificial and selfless drive for the greater good of the team. The process to sustain this model is merely a continuous cycling of elimination and acquisition of the players and staff whom fit within the paradigm and advance the only metric of success that matters in the NFL: a championship.

 

The process is essentially cutting off the dead branches, pruning the good ones to bring out a more productive tree, and continuously finding the mulch, fertilizer, essential nutrients to the soil, sunshine to shade ratio, and basic water to insure a vibrant and healthy environment that allows the tree, or in this analogy the organization / franchise, to thrive. But more to the point, the process, is exactly as it sounds. The culture change, the player development, the coaching synergy, and the front office efficacy is NOT an overnight event.....it takes time and a didactic march toward improvement. Sometimes, as in battle, you must retreat to a higher ground, gather your resources and rally the troops, wait for reinforcements, before you advance once again. 

 

I have no idea how this year will turn out. But what I truly believe is in the process because it's been a mild success thus far and no the playoff drought snap does NOT buy Beane and McD 10 years. But I do think it gets them 3 more without calling into question their methods unless this team does a total Chip Kelly tank. What should also be noted is not just "us Bills fans", but reports coming out of training camp were virtually every national media outlet who sent someone to training camp came away impressed with Sean and Beane and how their "process" is moving along. I would hate to throw away this year and say, "Eh, we made the playoffs last year so who cares with this year"....because great organizations don't do that and I don't think they're doing that at all. But, I also think they know that they have to swallow all this dead Cap money in order to move forward in a healthy way. Looking at the trades and roster cuts, I think that was Beane's primary focus - outside of the Draft - this off-season. Eliminate the dead wood and prepare to grow organically and in a way that is healthy for sustainable success in the future. 

 

Long post, but you came in poked the bear and presumed someone would just come in with a couple sentences telling you to "f" off.....I am saying that....but politely and with more reasoned insight, albeit IMHO. Btw, whatever team you're rooting for - because obviously it's not the Bills - enjoy the season.

 

IOW, McDermott is the reincarnation of Dick Jauron only with better game day coaching skills.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

one book I saw had it open at Bills -3

The Bills at -3 or +3?  I never saw the Bills as favorites anywhere. 

[billieve420]

Hate betting on the Bills. The Run D looks suspect. If they can stop Baltimore’s run game they have a shot at the upset.

 

I am eyeing the over/under in the Denver/Seattle game instead. It is at 42 and I think it is going to go over despite the betting trends.

[CommonCents]

Three picks I love, 

 

ATL-heavy

Steelers-heavy (with or without Bell)

Texans

 

I will bet those up and down and toss in a parlay with 3 other teams. Good luck 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills at -3 or +3?  I never saw the Bills as favorites anywhere. 

 

You can track how the line has changed since it opened here: Bills vs. Ravens Vegas Lines