National Josh Allen buzz after 1 preseason half

[Chandler#81]

9 hours ago, MURPHD6 said:

Your paranoid.... Blah Blah Blah..

 

I can picture you yelling at a pop warner coach and embarassing yourself in front of the rest of the parents.

 

 

 

and I can picture you not posting..

Calm down.

[Nihilarian]

18 hours ago, MURPHD6 said:

 If you think I'm being condescening by pointing out cherry picking, a lack of research, and concern over a sub 60 per cent completion percentage please google "average completion percentage needed to start in the NFL" 

 

The baseline 60% completion percentage for a starting QB is a pretty common agreed upon stat amongst people who follow these things. 

 

In 2016 24/30 starting qbs had completion percentages over 60 and only one qb was below 55.

 

In 2017 25/32 qbs were above 60.

Only 2 players were below 55 - C.J Beathhard and DeShone Kizer.

 

If you follow statistical trends, nothing that I said should come off as condescending, unless your adverse to research (which is a hobby that fans who are interested in stats enjoy).

 

Teams aren't making the playoffs with QB's who are below 60%, minus a few exceptions, which includes Cam Newton (59.1) who makes up for it with his running ability.

 

And if you think I'm being sequacious, consensus is what stats are all about, and the reason why they are useful. 

 

 

6

You quoted my post by stating from a "research perspective" and then proceded to state the wrong stats by stating Allen had a sub 50% completion percentage which was almost comical until I read further. 

 

Then you proceeded to lecture me that I "can't" cherry pick from the greats as all I was attempting to show that even some players with the very worst completion percentage can improve once in the professional ranks where they can get the proper instruction to fully develop their craft. From the 40% range up to 62% once in the pros.

 

If you actually did some research into this specific player you would have realized that the norms of completion percentage criteria really don't apply for various reasons. Bills fans need to look at the circumstances surrounding this rookie like Beane and McD have done.

 

If you had read the link that I posted stating why the Bills FO knew Allen was "right for them". I would then tend to think that you wouldn't continue with the nonsensical idea that every rookie QB must have a 60 percent completion percentage entering the NFL or they will fail.  

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them

 

In case you are too lazy to click the link and read the article.

 

"But Beane, McDermott, and Daboll feeling good about Allen didn’t change his completion percentage. It didn’t cause his harshest critics to suddenly like him. 56.2-percent overall over two years as a starter. 56.3 his junior year before declaring for the draft. It also didn’t suddenly change the competition he faced to be able to explain it away a lot easier.

 

How did the Bills brass view those concerns and still decide Allen was Their Man? In this day and age of instant video and in-depth stats right at your fingertips, they went back to the basics. Tracking every throw with their own pencil-to-paper looking at exactly what’s going on with and around him.

“Because what we did was, first of all, look at every throw multiple times,” Beane said. “What were his options here?

 

He had no gimme throws. There’s no, basically like hand-offs, the bubbles, and all that stuff. It was all a traditional pro-style, throwing the ball vertically, and you basically have to do your own stats. How many times did he bail out of there and throw it away, which is an incompletion? How many times did he have to do that vs. this guy and vs. that guy? And you also looked at what’s going on when he’s missing when he should have made the play, what’s going on? And to us, it was pretty clear it’s when his feet were not right. The most positive thing I saw, when he was at the Senior Bowl, his feet were in a much better position that week, he was much more accurate, not only during the week, but even in the game."

 

This is what I meant when I stated that there were specific circumstances as to why Allen didn't have a better completion percentage in his two seasons at Wyoming and why some feel that those percentage numbers aren't really indicative of what Allen will do in the NFL.

 

[xxxxxxxx]

Then block me. If the Allen fans can't handle sober stat talk without loosing it, I'm really not interested in talking to them anyway. 

[The Wiz]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The sideline one?  Was that a great play/catch by the receiver making up for a bad throw by the QB or a great play/catch by the receiver combined with a great throw by the QB?

 

I don't even know that Lee's catch was anything more than great awareness and a good NFL catch.

Honestly when he threw that ball it looked ill advised.  I don't know how many times I've seen a QB throw a floater off their back foot that ended up as an INT.

 

That being said, it was right where it needed to be and he made a great catch and kept his arms extended (as cover1 pointed out) to keep the defender from knocking the ball out as he went down.

Edited August 15, 2018 by The Wiz

[xxxxxxxx]

27 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

You quoted my post by stating from a "research perspective" and then proceded to state the wrong stats by stating Allen had a sub 50% completion percentage which was almost comical until I read further. 

 

Then you proceeded to lecture me that I "can't" cherry pick from the greats as all I was attempting to show that even some players with the very worst completion percentage can improve once in the professional ranks where they can get the proper instruction to fully develop their craft. From the 40% range up to 62% once in the pros.

 

If you actually did some research into this specific player you would have realized that the norms of completion percentage criteria really don't apply for various reasons. Bills fans need to look at the circumstances surrounding this rookie like Beane and McD have done.

 

If you had read the link that I posted stating why the Bills FO knew Allen was "right for them". I would then tend to think that you wouldn't continue with the nonsensical idea that every rookie QB must have a 60 percent completion percentage entering the NFL or they will fail.  

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them

 

In case you are too lazy to click the link and read the article.

 

"But Beane, McDermott, and Daboll feeling good about Allen didn’t change his completion percentage. It didn’t cause his harshest critics to suddenly like him. 56.2-percent overall over two years as a starter. 56.3 his junior year before declaring for the draft. It also didn’t suddenly change the competition he faced to be able to explain it away a lot easier.

 

How did the Bills brass view those concerns and still decide Allen was Their Man? In this day and age of instant video and in-depth stats right at your fingertips, they went back to the basics. Tracking every throw with their own pencil-to-paper looking at exactly what’s going on with and around him.

“Because what we did was, first of all, look at every throw multiple times,” Beane said. “What were his options here?

 

He had no gimme throws. There’s no, basically like hand-offs, the bubbles, and all that stuff. It was all a traditional pro-style, throwing the ball vertically, and you basically have to do your own stats. How many times did he bail out of there and throw it away, which is an incompletion? How many times did he have to do that vs. this guy and vs. that guy? And you also looked at what’s going on when he’s missing when he should have made the play, what’s going on? And to us, it was pretty clear it’s when his feet were not right. The most positive thing I saw, when he was at the Senior Bowl, his feet were in a much better position that week, he was much more accurate, not only during the week, but even in the game."

 

This is what I meant when I stated that there were specific circumstances as to why Allen didn't have a better completion percentage in his two seasons at Wyoming and why some feel that those percentage numbers aren't really indicative of what Allen will do in the NFL.

 

I was not quoting your post. Another poster who didn't take offense to what I was saying was quoting Farve and Kelly's stats. Maybe he was quoting your post, I don't know. Then the Allen echo chamber started running, and I'm sorry, but those dudes don't seem to be as well informed about statistics as other members on this board and if you point that out they flip and accuse you of saying things you never said and being pretentious.

 

Its just anti-intellectuals blowing a gasket when you point out the fact that a QB completion percentage from the 90's might not apply anymore.

 

I have already told you twice that I was not referring to your post and you keep ignoring that for some reason, and feigning outrage over my interest on stats.

 

I wasn't talking down to you, initially, I was describing my interest in stats. And your clearly not interested in stats because you and all the other fan boys conveniantly ignored all the stats I pulled.

 

Feel free to argue with yourself, sir. I did not start an argument with you to begin with but you still think I did and are repeatedly ignoring evidence to the contrary because you want to keep arguing.

 

Oh and when I said that he had a sub 50 completion percentage I was referring to the preseason game, not his college career. The poster I was talking to got that. You misinterpreted it and tried to use it as evidence of me being dumb and proceeded to ignore all the stats I pulled.

When you start an argument like that it is in bad faith, and people will get frusterated.

You have already stated that you don't think stats matter, so I'm not interested in duscussing them with you.

 

Edited August 15, 2018 by MURPHD6

[BB@Shooter]

On 8/11/2018 at 10:14 PM, BigDingus said:

 

Here's the problem with your breakdown...you're assigning fault to everyone but him. People did this with Tyrod, Manuel, Losman, Edwards, Holcomb, etc. too, game after game, year after  year. The other problem is every QB in the game has the same stuff working against them...blown routes, poor timing on some plays, dropped balls, effort issues, etc.

And even though Allen has always had stats like this from HS to College, people will still blame his completion percentage on others all season. Doesn't matter that he's had plenty of games like that (16 games over the past 2 years he failed to complete 60% of his passes), or that every other QB in the world has to deal with the same types of problems, we're going to pretend when Allen's game performances match his track record, it's not who he REALLY is...and that it's someone else's fault.

Look at Allens winning percentage on a rebuilding team. Allen is a winner, stats are for people who don't know how to play the game. Allen does the big and little things to win games, get used to it. He could go 1 for 50, and if he wins I don't care. That is one thing people don't understand about sports. To win all you have to do is score 1 point more than the other team. I could care less if the Bills win ugly, as long as they win. And trust me, Allen won some ugly games at Wyoming. Allen is a winner, and it will only get better.

[Jay_Fixit]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The sideline one?  Was that a great play/catch by the receiver making up for a bad throw by the QB or a great play/catch by the receiver combined with a great throw by the QB?

 

I don't even know that Lee's catch was anything more than great awareness and a good NFL catch.

It was a great catch that he adjusted for. The throw looked like a Pat Mahomes heave.

 

I’d say that completion is 65% Lee and 35% Allen.

[JaCrispy]

10 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

It was a great catch that he adjusted for. The throw looked like a Pat Mahomes heave.

 

I’d say that completion is 65% Lee and 35% Allen.

Well, seeing that you need a QB to throw it and a receiver to catch it, I’d say it was 50/50...but that’s just me.

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, MURPHD6 said:

If the Allen fans

 

You mean Bills fans, right? Which team do you root for?

[xxxxxxxx]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You mean Bills fans, right? Which team do you root for?

The Bills, your allowed to like a team without fawning over all of the players. Right? Enough people blasted Tyrod on here, and they weren't questioned if they liked the team or not.

But say that you have an issue with Allens completion percentage and your suddenly a traitor.

Edited August 15, 2018 by MURPHD6

[HappyDays]

Just now, MURPHD6 said:

The Bills, your allowed to like a team without fawning over all of the players. Right?

 

No one is fawning over the players. You keep calling people defending Allen "fanboys." You can believe that he will not succeed and still be a fan of his. But I see this is personal for you so I won't stand in your way.

[xxxxxxxx]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No one is fawning over the players. You keep calling people defending Allen "fanboys." You can believe that he will not succeed and still be a fan of his. But I see this is personal for you so I won't stand in your way.

You mean the people saying I'm stupid for liking stats. Also, I like Allen just fine.

I have issues with people who want him to start right away. Which makes me a pretentious hater who talks down to people about completion percentages.

 

Alot of dudes in this thread want to beleive that he is the second coming after one preseason game. Question that and they will gang up on you.

Edited August 15, 2018 by MURPHD6

[Tyrod's friend]

11 minutes ago, MURPHD6 said:

You mean the people saying I'm stupid for liking stats. Also, I like Allen just fine.

I have issues with people who want him to start right away. Which makes me a pretentious hater who talks down to people about completion percentages.

 

Alot of dudes in this thread want to beleive that he is the second coming after one preseason game. Question that and they will gang up on you.

 

Pretty much. They won't admit that there were several plays for Allen that would have wound up as turnovers against a 1st team defense. How about this? That the pass to McCloud for a TD was poorly advised. He stared down a double coverage, threw it anyway while it was clear that the half back was going to be open for a first down over the middle.

You can like that hero - and hey, I think it was the bee's knees when it comes to passes - but that sort of bull isn't what wins games in the NFL. Hit the open man, move the chains, be decisive and quick, don't turn the ball over. 

[GoodHands15]

22 minutes ago, MURPHD6 said:

You mean the people saying I'm stupid for liking stats. Also, I like Allen just fine.

I have issues with people who want him to start right away. 

 

Here I have compiled a few examples of Josh Allen’s height. Actually considered Elite NFL height by many statatologists, as well as those around the NFL statatology circle. 

 

Now, that being considered. Don’t you billieve that that should give him an advantage no? Make it easy for him to see receivers so they catch the ball yes? Now this, combined with aforementioned elite hand size, not to forget his rocket arm; this should help Bills win games no?

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

It was a great catch that he adjusted for. The throw looked like a Pat Mahomes heave.

 

I’d say that completion is 65% Lee and 35% Allen.

 

Really? 

 

I'll respectfully disagree. That was just a spectacular throw by Allen.  Another poster said that the throw looked "ill-advised" when he threw it--and it did look that way--except for the fact that Allen escaped pressure and threw the ball about as accurately as he could have to Lee 40 yards in the air while going backwards off his back foot.  It didn't look like a pass that should have been thrown, except that it was an extremely accurate pass.

 

Like I said, Lee had great awareness because of the body he put into the defender so he had the space to catch the ball.  That part of the process of the catch was fantastic.  The catch was a pretty standard NFL catch.

[transplantbillsfan]

57 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

Pretty much. They won't admit that there were several plays for Allen that would have wound up as turnovers against a 1st team defense. How about this? That the pass to McCloud for a TD was poorly advised. He stared down a double coverage, threw it anyway while it was clear that the half back was going to be open for a first down over the middle.

You can like that hero - and hey, I think it was the bee's knees when it comes to passes - but that sort of bull isn't what wins games in the NFL. Hit the open man, move the chains, be decisive and quick, don't turn the ball over. 

 

Look at Happydays thread with the Cover1 breakdown of Allen's final drive and watch the part where they break down that TD throw:

 

It's really not at all that "Allen just stared down double coverage" considering the subtleties of what he did to get that CB to be just late enough to dive for the ball and it's broken down pretty well in that video.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, MURPHD6 said:

The Bills, your allowed to like a team without fawning over all of the players. Right? Enough people blasted Tyrod on here, and they weren't questioned if they liked the team or not.

But say that you have an issue with Allens completion percentage and your suddenly a traitor.

 

Looks like you’ve finally figured it out. But go ahead and add aggressive & combative, Benedict.

[Gugny]

4 hours ago, MURPHD6 said:

The Bills, your allowed to like a team without fawning over all of the players. Right? Enough people blasted Tyrod on here, and they weren't questioned if they liked the team or not.

But say that you have an issue with Allens completion percentage and your suddenly a traitor.

 

People blasted Tyrod Taylor because he had four years in the NFL before being handed the starting job by an inept Rex Ryan.

 

You've got an issue with a kid's college stats which, frankly, don't mean a goddamn thing.

 

But please ... carry on with your crusade.  I can't wait to see how it ends.

[Nihilarian]

5 hours ago, MURPHD6 said:

I was not quoting your post. Another poster who didn't take offense to what I was saying was quoting Farve and Kelly's stats. Maybe he was quoting your post, I don't know. Then the Allen echo chamber started running, and I'm sorry, but those dudes don't seem to be as well informed about statistics as other members on this board and if you point that out they flip and accuse you of saying things you never said and being pretentious.

 

Its just anti-intellectuals blowing a gasket when you point out the fact that a QB completion percentage from the 90's might not apply anymore.

 

I have already told you twice that I was not referring to your post and you keep ignoring that for some reason, and feigning outrage over my interest on stats.

 

I wasn't talking down to you, initially, I was describing my interest in stats. And your clearly not interested in stats because you and all the other fan boys conveniantly ignored all the stats I pulled.

 

Feel free to argue with yourself, sir. I did not start an argument with you to begin with but you still think I did and are repeatedly ignoring evidence to the contrary because you want to keep arguing.

 

Oh and when I said that he had a sub 50 completion percentage I was referring to the preseason game, not his college career. The poster I was talking to got that. You misinterpreted it and tried to use it as evidence of me being dumb and proceeded to ignore all the stats I pulled.

When you start an argument like that it is in bad faith, and people will get frusterated.

You have already stated that you don't think stats matter, so I'm not interested in duscussing them with you.

 

8

Wasn't quoting my post huh?  Do you often quote other fans posts and then deny you did so and then make up stuff to fit the argument? I can't abide liars or supposed Bills fans who constantly attempt to bull **** real Bills fans.

 

Go troll some other teams forums will ya! I'm done dealing with this. 

 

Here is my post that you directly quoted me from page nine of this thread. Notice the name at the very bottom? 

On ‎8‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 3:49 PM, Nihilarian said:

You weren't alone as I'd say about 90% of the board hated the idea of drafting Allen before the draft. Right after the Bills selected him most Bills fans here acted like they were gut shot with that pick.

 

I rejoiced when the Bills drafted him over Rosen as I had done some extensive research pre-draft on all this years QB's and fell in love with what Allen brings and not just with the arm. He wasn't the most polished QB of the bunch but had the highest ceiling. In his final year at Wyoming, he played with a bunch of rookies and carried them to an 8-5 record and a bowl win.

 

The biggest drawback everyone had with him was with his accuracy issues and then you realize he only played a full two seasons in college which should allow him to improve those accuracy issues over time. If you take the time to research it so many great QB's started out with a bad completion percentage only to improve over time.

 

Joe Montana started out with a 42.4 % and left ND with a 54.2 %. While finishing his NFL career with a 63.2%. Brett Farve was another with a horrific completion percentage in his first year at S Miss with a 40.7 % to see it rise to 54.5 in his senior year. Then finished his NFL career with a 62.0. 

 

Allen's accuracy issues mostly revolve around his footwork and he has worked very hard to improve that since he left college.

 

 

Here's the problem, from a research perspective. 

His completion percentage was still below 50 and he was against a vanilla D. 

You can cherry pick all the great QB's you like, but you really need to look at a larger sample size. There haven't been many, if any, QB's who have been able to improve upon a sub 60 per cent college completion percentage in the pros who were drafted in the last decade. Your looking at exceptions, not likely outcomes. That was the reasoning against drafting Allen, as a QB needs to hit at least 60 per cent to be able to start in the league (in today's pass happy era) and most rookies see an immediate drop in completion percentage in the NFL, and sometimes it never goes back up.

I get that your excited, but if you want to argue stats you can't just cherry pick from the greats who played during a time when passes were less frequent due to different pass interference rules.There are very good reasons to be concerned with his accuracy, and people who are concerned are doing there research. 

Edited Sunday at 07:48 PM by MURPHD6

 

[Tyrod's friend]

20 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Look at Happydays thread with the Cover1 breakdown of Allen's final drive and watch the part where they break down that TD throw:

 

It's really not at all that "Allen just stared down double coverage" considering the subtleties of what he did to get that CB to be just late enough to dive for the ball and it's broken down pretty well in that video.

Again - it's double coverage he's throwing into and if they are NFL starters there's a real good likelihood it's a pick. The correct pass there is to the halfback coming out of the backfield who is open for a first down. And it's not like that read is a difficult one; there's no baiting going on there.

Does he have a rocket? No doubt. Was the pass great? Sure. There's a lot to be excited about but that was a dangerous play right out of the box in a touchdown situation and it's an extension of the hero complex. It comes from the same place in his head where the 4th/2 and the pass to Khari Lee comes from. That's all I'm saying.

On 8/15/2018 at 3:17 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Ummm... which passes from Allen did WRs have to make great catches on?

 

I named every single one I claimed were on WRs as Incompletions... so which ones did the WRs bail Allen out on with "great catches?"

I could start with Khari Lee for a long pass ... that's just off the top of my head.