National Josh Allen buzz after 1 preseason half

[atlbillsfan1975]

Yep. It’s all over the place. I really do trust whatever Coach and Beane think is best. 

Heck McCarron I think could be a very capable starter. McCarron has proven he can be a guy that could get the Bills back to the playoffs. 

I hated the pick of Allen right as it was called. Then I watched every game of his. I read his story. Watched interviews with him, his family and coaches at High School and both colleges. 

IF Allen struggled and looked out of place, I would sit him. I think McDermott was thinking this was. You never really know till you see it against NFL players. 

Coach has a few more preseason games to get a good feel for Allen’s mental make up.

[Norcalbillsfan]

More than anything I was happy with the confidence. Being doubted by most analysts and coming from a small school he could have easily went out and played super conservative on the big stage. But he went out with no fear throwing bombs. 

[xxxxxxxx]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's not what the controversy was over at all.  It was simply about John's view that Allen will never be accurate. 

 

I don't see anyone saying to play Allen too early.  

 

It's completely clear when Allen is going to play, and it has very little to do with his completion percentage.   He'll play when he's the QB who gives the Bills the best chance to win.  That could be in four weeks against Baltimore, it could be in the middle of the 2018 season, it could be at the beginning of the 2019 season, it could be never.  

 

However, to my eyes, he'll be starting sooner rather later.  If he's completing 58% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, he'll start over McCarron dinking and dunkin for a 62% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per attempt.  A four percentage point difference in completion percentage amounts to 1 and occasionally 2 additional completions a game.   IF your QB is throwing it downfield, the extra yardage he gets more than makes up for one more 6 yard dumpoff.  

Pretty simple, isn't it?  

 Its not that simple. The NFL is a different game today than it used to be and the difference between a 58% and a 62% completion percentage is a far wider margin than you think because teams are attempting more passes and more pass interference calls are being awarded. If he's throwing 58% at over 8.5 we are going to get murdered in time of possession and the D won't get enough time time to rest.

 

Edited August 13, 2018 by MURPHD6

[transplantbillsfan]

43 minutes ago, MURPHD6 said:

 Its not that simple. The NFL is a different game today than it used to be and the difference between a 58% and a 62% completion percentage is a far wider margin than you think because teams are attempting more passes and more pass interference calls are being awarded. If he's throwing 58% at over 8.5 we are going to get murdered in time of possession and the D won't get enough time time to rest.

 

 

Based on watching his college film I could find and the 1st half of the preseason game, that difference between 58% and 62% will be more on the WRs and OL than Allen.

[Boca BIlls]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Friday Allen gets 1st team reps, and today this observation from Faurburn:

It's getting interesting, folks

Not really interesting b.c Allen will most likely be week 1 starter

[Nihilarian]

8 hours ago, MURPHD6 said:

Here's the problem, from a research perspective. 

His completion percentage was still below 50 and he was against a vanilla D.  First off, Allen's completion percentage was never below 56% while at Wyoming so I have no idea who you are referring to.  Did you miss the part where I stated that Allen only played two full seasons at Wyoming and that usually college QB's improve their percentage over time? Meaning a four year career. Allen did have a 66.7 completion percentage in his first year at Wyoming, alas he only played in two games that year.

 

You can cherry pick all the great QB's you like, but you really need to look at a larger sample size. There haven't been many, if any, QB's who have been able to improve upon a sub 60 per cent college completion percentage in the pros who were drafted in the last decade. Your looking at exceptions, not likely outcomes. That was the reasoning against drafting Allen, as a QB needs to hit at least 60 per cent to be able to start in the league (in today's pass happy era) and most rookies see an immediate drop in completion percentage in the NFL, and sometimes it never goes back up.

Matthew Stafford comes to mind with his first year of 52.7%, second year 55.7 and in his third season went up to 61.4.  Stafford averages 62.0% in the NFL. The supporting cast matters as Stafford started as low as 53.3% in 2009 and hit a high of 67.2% in 2015.

Jay Cutler also comes to mind as a college player who started at 48.6 in his first year, 57.2 in his second, 61% in his third, 59.1 in his fourth. His NFL career he averaged 62.0 completion percentage.

 

Plus the fact that Allen lost every player that touched the ball in 2016 at Wyoming and in 2017 took a team filled with nobodies, rookies to an 8-5 record with a bowl win. His O line and receiver corps stunk big time in 2017.  Meanwhile, no other player from that 2017 Wyoming class was drafted.

 

Not to mention that Allen was in a deep throwing passing scheme at Wyoming with no short, simple outs, Bubble screens like Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen threw in games. Some QB's make a living with those short dump offs. 

 

Yes, his level of competition wasn't that great at Wyoming. So it's important to note that when Allen did face a higher level of competition in the Senior Bowl he played very well with a better surrounding cast. In which Allen went 9 of 15 for 158 yards, 2 TDs!  Both TDs were "touch" throws and he showed he can compete against elite talents. 

 

I get that your excited, but if you want to argue stats you can't just cherry pick from the greats who played during a time when passes were less frequent due to different pass interference rules.There are very good reasons to be concerned with his accuracy, and people who are concerned are doing there research. 

8

It's not just me. Both Beane and McD placed their faith, future in the hands of Josh Allen so I think there is a real reason for all Bills fans to be excited. 

 

Read this, It might help. https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them

 

Edited August 13, 2018 by Nihilarian

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's not what the controversy was over at all.  It was simply about John's view that Allen will never be accurate. 

 

 

I never said that Allen would never be accurate. You should be ashamed of yourself for such a gross distortion. When discussing his level of accuracy I said he would never be the type of qb who would be as accurate as Brees or Brady, two HOF qbs who are historically accurate. You saying that I said he would never be accurate is simply bogus. I have no problem with people disagree with what I said. I have little regard for people who distort what is said. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Jay_Fixit]

On 8/11/2018 at 9:29 PM, BigDingus said:

 

Because completion percentage & accuracy are just minor things to ignore?

 

(2017 Numbers)

 

Drew Brees - 72.0%

Alex Smith - 67.5%

Jimmy Garoppolo - 67.4%

Tom Brady - 66.3%

Matt Stafford - 65.7%

Matt Ryan - 64.7%

Aaron Rodgers - 64.7%

Kirk Cousins - 64.7%

Big Ben - 64.2%

Jameis Winston - 63.8%

Philip Rivers - 62.6%

Tyrod Taylor - 62.6%

Jared Goff - 62.1%

Eli Manning - 61.6%

Russell Wilson - 61.3%

Carson Wentz - 60.2%

Blake Bortles - 60.2%

 

Andy Dalton - 59.9%

Mitch Trubisky - 59.4%

Cam Newton - 59.1%

Trevor Siemian - 59.0%

Ryan Fitzpatrick - 58.9%

Jacoby Brisset - 58.8%

Brian Hoyer - 58.0%

JOSH ALLEN - 56.1% (PAST TWO YEARS)*****

Tom Savage - 56.1%

Brock Osweiler - 55.8%

Blaine Gabbert - 55.6%

CJ Beathard - 54.9%

Deshone Kizer - 53.6%

 

I see the better group of QB's tend to have higher completion percentages to go along with the rest of their numbers...I also notice that sub 60% tends to be where the bad, or at best, inconsistent QB's reside. There are exceptions to every rule, but I know I'd rather have him positioned between Tyrod & Rivers or Ryan & Stafford than Tom Savage & Brian Hoyer or Blaine Gabbert & Brock Osweiler...

Former NFL MVP Cam Newton completed 52.9% of his passes two years ago. He’s also at 58.5% for his career.

 

Another QB everyone likes to think is elite yet is at 59.5% for his career is Andrew Luck. 

 

You’re also grouping Josh Allen’s COLLEGE stats in with these numbers. So it pretty much negates the attempt. 

 

I’ve said all year how Josh Allen is innacurate, how if he only completed 56% of his college passes is bad news for his NFL career. However, I think he does have a chance to correct those flaws in the NFL as it looks like it was footwork/decision making issues. Coaching can help that.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

We're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves. Really exciting debut but let's see how he looks in the next three pre-season games and then re-evaluate. He's our franchise guy but he needs work. I'd rather wait a few weeks late than a few weeks too early. 

 

But if he kills it in the next three games and is given more and allowed to play for 1st team defenses then we might have to expedite the process. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen receives a solid grade on his debut

AFC preseason Week 1 grades: Sam Darnold, Andrew Luck shine

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, QB. The rookie gunslinger certainly teased Bills fans with flashes of his arm talent and athleticism during an up-and-down debut performance. Allen connected on 9 of 19 passes for 116 yards and a score on a variety of laser-like tosses that showcased his A-plus arm strength. However, he also showed the inconsistent accuracy and decision-making that plagued him during his collegiate career. Grade: B-

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen receives a solid grade on his debut

AFC preseason Week 1 grades: Sam Darnold, Andrew Luck shine

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, QB. The rookie gunslinger certainly teased Bills fans with flashes of his arm talent and athleticism during an up-and-down debut performance. Allen connected on 9 of 19 passes for 116 yards and a score on a variety of laser-like tosses that showcased his A-plus arm strength. However, he also showed the inconsistent accuracy and decision-making that plagued him during his collegiate career. Grade: B-

 

...Jesus, hate the word "gunslinger"....go back and re-read the urinalists' pre-draft hype for 2004......Losman was the "heir apparent gunslinger to Favre" going to the Pack at #22...we get him and JP Favre didn't quite work out....

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

I never said that Allen would never be accurate. You should be ashamed of yourself for such a gross distortion. When discussing his level of accuracy I said he would never be the type of qb who would be as accurate as Brees or Brady, two HOF qbs who are historically accurate. You saying that I said he would never be accurate is simply bogus. I have no problem with people disagree with what I said. I have little regard for people who distort what is said. 

You're correct.   I was imprecise when I typed that response.   I knew that's what we were talking about.  

 

I'm sorry you have little regard for me. 

[Chandler#81]

On 8/11/2018 at 12:32 PM, yungmack said:

What do you mean "we"? Other than showing he has a Jeff George arm and was inaccurate with it, I didn't see anything to change my opinion that McBeane made a huge mistake paying what they did for this kid. If winning the SB is the goal, the record shows that none of the dominant QBs - Starr, Bradshaw, Montana, Aikman, Brady - were big arms. But it's early, and I'm hoping against hope he turns out to be "The One."

 Big Ben, Aaron Rogers, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, Elway, Namath & Peyton Manning say ‘Hi!’

 

 

 

Terry Bradshaw says “F-You!”

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

You're correct.   I was imprecise when I typed that response.   I knew that's what we were talking about.  

 

I'm sorry you have little regard for me. 

 

If it means anything Shaw....I don't have little regard for you.  It's a higher regard.  Not quite at the level of a Expert Divers who went in after the Filipino soccer players but it's still pretty high!

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If it means anything Shaw....I don't have little regard for you.  It's a higher regard.  Not quite at the level of a Expert Divers who went in after the Filipino soccer players but it's still pretty high!

Thanks.

 

Some people do simply amazing stuff.   Like those divers.  Day after day going in there to find those kids and get them out.  Incredible.  I'm not one of those people. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Reviewing Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen's preseason debut | Baldy's Breakdown (4:44)

[LikeIGiveADarn]

50 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Reviewing Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen's preseason debut | Baldy's Breakdown (4:44)

 

Awesome video, but man does NFL have a terrible video player...

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Reviewing Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen's preseason debut | Baldy's Breakdown (4:44)

 

This is good stuff. Thanks!

[BigDingus]

On 8/12/2018 at 12:21 AM, Figster said:

Allen throws at a very high velocity that has already proven to come at you a little hot to handle at times for some of the Bills WR's.  Allens release has been clocked at over 70 MPH. 

 

Give Josh Allen sure handed recievers along with good protection. Add a RB like Shady to dump the ball off to short and watch Allens completion percentage go up. ( In my humble opinion )

 

 Josh Allen can make throws that only a very small percentage of QB's in the NFL can make.

 

 

He can also miss many throws that the large majority of QB's in the NFL can make....And as most coaches will tell you, it's those plays that matter most, not always trying to go for one big home run.

 

14 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Former NFL MVP Cam Newton completed 52.9% of his passes two years ago. He’s also at 58.5% for his career.

 

Another QB everyone likes to think is elite yet is at 59.5% for his career is Andrew Luck. 

 

You’re also grouping Josh Allen’s COLLEGE stats in with these numbers. So it pretty much negates the attempt. 

 

I’ve said all year how Josh Allen is innacurate, how if he only completed 56% of his college passes is bad news for his NFL career. However, I think he does have a chance to correct those flaws in the NFL as it looks like it was footwork/decision making issues. Coaching can help that.

 

Since you quoted my comment, you should notice the part I said "There are exceptions to every rule." 

YOU can point to the random one-off's....and I'll point to the much larger list of failures. I also mentioned in my post - ".I also notice that sub 60% tends to be where the bad, or at best, inconsistent QB's reside."

 

Do you think Cam Netwon is consistent? Hardly. And Cam Newton was also putting up MONSTER numbers in college, and at Auburn no less, and won the National Championship. Josh Allen put up average numbers, got worse his senior year, and wasn't even one of the top QB's in a weak division.

"Oh! But the talent around him blah blah blah!" And? All those other QB's from teams in his division had the same disadvantages. They all played with comparable talent around them. He also had the benefit of playing AGAINST inferior talent, unlike QB's like Cam Netwon, and couldn't do much with it.

I'm all for being supportive and hopeful with Allen, but I thought this thread would discuss his real merits & be based in reality, not plucking only what we want to see & ignoring all the other evidence that doesn't fit our narrative.... 

Edited August 14, 2018 by BigDingus