Tiberius Posted August 7, 2018 Posted August 7, 2018 https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/08/troy_balderson_danny_oconnor_m.html#incart_m-rpt-1 Republican district for years so probably an easy win for the GOP.
row_33 Posted August 7, 2018 Posted August 7, 2018 so if the GOP wins you will pretend it never happened and if they don't you will act like this is the turning point
donbb Posted August 7, 2018 Posted August 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, row_33 said: so if the GOP wins you will pretend it never happened and if they don't you will act like this is the turning point Don't get your panties in a bunch - this is a politics forum.
row_33 Posted August 7, 2018 Posted August 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, donbb said: Don't get your panties in a bunch - this is a politics forum. okay?
Tiberius Posted August 8, 2018 Author Posted August 8, 2018 Holy heck, this one is a real barn burner!
Dr.Sack Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 O’Connor is going to lose by around 500-1,000 votes out of over 200,000 votes cast. This is another shining example that being; centrist, moderate, corporate, and neoliberal won’t cut it in a Populist era. People want fighters not folks who speak in platitudes and cliches and don’t contrast themselves from Republican economic orthodoxy.
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said: O’Connor is going to lose by around 500-1,000 votes out of over 200,000 votes cast. This is another shining example that being; centrist, moderate, corporate, and neoliberal won’t cut it in a Populist era. People want fighters not folks who speak in platitudes and cliches and don’t contrast themselves from Republican economic orthodoxy. But he can always say he won the popular vote, or would have if the women in Ohia weren't pushed around by their husbands, brothers, bosses and/or mailmen. 4
Dr.Sack Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 32 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: But he can always say he won the popular vote, or would have if the women in Ohia weren't pushed around by their husbands, brothers, bosses and/or mailmen. Or Russia.
row_33 Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 So how’d it go in 12th Ohio? never mind..... it didn’t matter.... lol
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 45 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said: Or Russia. Ah, I forgot the oligarchs. Russian male men.
Dr.Sack Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 (edited) Not surprised by the results of this race at all. Lets compare the candidates key issues: Troy Balderson Republican: Balancing the budget: (Most Americans support this idea, Clinton did this) Military: (Of course) Economy & Jobs: (Yes) Building The Wall: (Good meat for the base to chew on) 2nd Amendment (More good meat) Faith & Values (Abortion - covers the evangical base) Healthcare (63% of Americans support repealing the ACA & replacing it with Medicare-for-All) Supporting President Trump (70% Americans believe Trump-Russia is over-hyped by corporate media). Danny OConnor Democrat Healthcare - Danny will fight to protect access to quality health care. (What does access mean? I have access to buy a Lamborghini but can’t afford it, nor could I afford the maintenance). Creating Economic Opportunity and Jobs (How?) Finding Common Ground (On what issues?) Combating Climate Change (How?) Improving Our Education System - By expanding federal student loans & making community college & trade schools accessible to everyone. (How is worsening the student debt crisis by loaning out more money fix this issue?) Safeguarding Our Voting Rights (Really?) Protecting Medicare & Social Security (These programs won’t be altered per Trump, so why make this an issue?) Edited August 8, 2018 by Dr.Sack
Doc Brown Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 Good night for unions in Missouri. https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/07/politics/missouri-right-to-work-vote/index.html
/dev/null Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 7 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: But he can always say he won the popular vote, or would have if the women in Ohia weren't pushed around by their husbands, brothers, bosses and/or mailmen. 6 hours ago, Dr.Sack said: Or Russia. Or the Green Party Still some votes to count, maybe 8000 or so provisional and absentee ballots. But unless those ballots break heavily for O'Conner (like ~60%) it looks like the Democrats will have failed to flip this seat
outsidethebox Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 8 hours ago, Tiberius said: Holy heck, this one is a real barn burner! Tee Hee Hee.....
row_33 Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 I thought it was easily 55-45 or a larger cakewalk in Ohio for the Dem... They have to go again in November so it doesn’t matter.
Doc Brown Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, /dev/null said: Or the Green Party Still some votes to count, maybe 8000 or so provisional and absentee ballots. But unless those ballots break heavily for O'Conner (like ~60%) it looks like the Democrats will have failed to flip this seat The partisan lean in this district the last two presidential elections was plus 14 Republican. If results hold, that's a plus 13 point Democratic swing which is around the average of all the special elections so far. If that pattern holds, it's not good news for the House Republicans this November. I'm sure the Dems will find some way to screw it up though.
row_33 Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: The partisan lean in this district the last two presidential elections was plus 14 Republican. If results hold, that's a plus 13 point Democratic swing which is around the average of all the special elections so far. If that pattern holds, it's not good news for the House Republicans this November. I'm sure the Dems will find some way to screw it up though. This is wishful tea leaf reading
Tiberius Posted August 8, 2018 Author Posted August 8, 2018 And they face off again in 93 days. Trump won this district by 11points! That's almost an 11 point gain.
Buffalo_Gal Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Doc Brown said: The partisan lean in this district the last two presidential elections was plus 14 Republican. If results hold, that's a plus 13 point Democratic swing which is around the average of all the special elections so far. If that pattern holds, it's not good news for the House Republicans this November. I'm sure the Dems will find some way to screw it up though. The Democratic turnout was only 10K off their 2016 vote totals for that district. The GOP, on the other hand, cast 144K votes fewer votes than in 2016. The dems sunk a TON of money into this race. I'm not sure they can do that for every race in November (since the party is broke - although that does not mean individuals cannot raise a lot of cash), and it is why trying to turn a seat during a special election where you can concentrate funding on one candidate is a great strategy. However, if the GOP can get their act together and turn out the vote come November, these elections may not be that close (or flipped). 1
Cinga Posted August 8, 2018 Posted August 8, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, /dev/null said: Or the Green Party Still some votes to count, maybe 8000 or so provisional and absentee ballots. But unless those ballots break heavily for O'Conner (like ~60%) it looks like the Democrats will have failed to flip this seat I expect most if not all the provisional ballots to go for O'Conner.... It's the Democrat way in close race to help them over the hump Edited August 8, 2018 by Cinga
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