Kirby Jackson Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Stumbled across this and thought some of you would be interested: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/24175885/nfl-ranking-every-starting-nfl-qb-record-spread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Stumbled across this and thought some of you would be interested: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/24175885/nfl-ranking-every-starting-nfl-qb-record-spread Cool stuff. Stafford was a surprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 The Matt Stafford conundrum remains perplexing. He is a good quarterback. The tape shows it, the raw numbers show it.... but the Lions on his watch rarely win games against good teams. They win the games they should win and lose the rest. It isn't like Stafford makes mistakes that lose them lots of those games..... but he also doesn't make the special play that wins enough of them either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted July 25, 2018 Author Share Posted July 25, 2018 Just now, Gugny said: Cool stuff. Stafford was a surprise to me. Me too!! That was the one that jumped out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: The Matt Stafford conundrum remains perplexing. He is a good quarterback. The tape shows it, the raw numbers show it.... but the Lions on his watch rarely win games against good teams. They win the games they should win and lose the rest. It isn't like Stafford makes mistakes that lose them lots of those games..... but he also doesn't make the special play that wins enough of them either. I am not a gambler - but against those good teams, the Lions should be getting plenty of points (7 or more?). Because of that, I figured the Lions would win more games with the points - improving Stafford's position on this list. I'm guessing this means (I've not looked) that the Lions not only lose those games, but lose by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gugny said: I am not a gambler - but against those good teams, the Lions should be getting plenty of points (7 or more?). Because of that, I figured the Lions would win more games with the points - improving Stafford's position on this list. I'm guessing this means (I've not looked) that the Lions not only lose those games, but lose by a lot. And that they don't beat the teams they should beat by enough as well presumably? Equally I bet a lot of the games he fails to cover are at home against teams who end in the playoffs or with winning records where the Lions are 1 or 2 point favourites because of home field advantage and yet end up losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Lions had the best record (10-6) O/U last year. +10 in turnover differential, good for 5th in the league. Baltimore lead the league with +17, that surprised me. The coach being fired in Detroit tells part of the story, not consistently beating teams that they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 AJ is 67% ATS, Brady 59%...just sayin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: The Matt Stafford conundrum remains perplexing. He is a good quarterback. The tape shows it, the raw numbers show it.... but the Lions on his watch rarely win games against good teams. They win the games they should win and lose the rest. It isn't like Stafford makes mistakes that lose them lots of those games..... but he also doesn't make the special play that wins enough of them either. Yup. He has elite physical skills but does seem to always make a head scratcher play or 2. Is definitely take him but I don’t really ever seen him being a guy who is a consistent winner. In fairness, his run game has sucked. 5 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: AJ is 67% ATS, Brady 59%...just sayin Think we could get an extra draft pick for NE in a trade? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Gugny said: I am not a gambler - but against those good teams, the Lions should be getting plenty of points (7 or more?). Because of that, I figured the Lions would win more games with the points - improving Stafford's position on this list. I'm guessing this means (I've not looked) that the Lions not only lose those games, but lose by a lot. Just a heads up from a gambler...the points come into play less than 20% of the time. Bet who you think will win the game. If that happens to be the underdog, bet the moneyline and do not take the points. 20% of the time that will absolutely burn you, but overall you will be much further ahead. For me, seems like the 20% all happened last year as I got absolutely crushed playing money lines instead of tyrning a tidy profit taking the points..but understand the stats and will continue to play the moneylines 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 42 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: Just a heads up from a gambler...the points come into play less than 20% of the time. Bet who you think will win the game. If that happens to be the underdog, bet the moneyline and do not take the points. 20% of the time that will absolutely burn you, but overall you will be much further ahead. For me, seems like the 20% all happened last year as I got absolutely crushed playing money lines instead of tyrning a tidy profit taking the points..but understand the stats and will continue to play the moneylines All this from a guy who bets on a horse because it’s name is Shady McCoy...... AND - I may still owe him beers for that. Caveat emptor. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 47 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: Just a heads up from a gambler...the points come into play less than 20% of the time. Bet who you think will win the game. If that happens to be the underdog, bet the moneyline and do not take the points. 20% of the time that will absolutely burn you, but overall you will be much further ahead. For me, seems like the 20% all happened last year as I got absolutely crushed playing money lines instead of tyrning a tidy profit taking the points..but understand the stats and will continue to play the moneylines Biggest mistake I make is I love the overs because who want to root for low scoring game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: The Matt Stafford conundrum remains perplexing. He is a good quarterback. The tape shows it, the raw numbers show it.... but the Lions on his watch rarely win games against good teams. They win the games they should win and lose the rest. It isn't like Stafford makes mistakes that lose them lots of those games..... but he also doesn't make the special play that wins enough of them either. they have no run game and haven't since he got there. no burning clock down. i'd be curious to know what the time of possession average is since he got there. they just throw the ball. you have to at least have somewhat of a balanced offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said: Just a heads up from a gambler...the points come into play less than 20% of the time. Bet who you think will win the game. If that happens to be the underdog, bet the moneyline and do not take the points. 20% of the time that will absolutely burn you, but overall you will be much further ahead. For me, seems like the 20% all happened last year as I got absolutely crushed playing money lines instead of tyrning a tidy profit taking the points..but understand the stats and will continue to play the moneylines Man, I love gambling threads! I'm going to try to do a bit more wagering this season, and this tip (and the linked article) will be on my mind for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 No mention of how Art Schlichter fared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, eball said: Man, I love gambling threads! I'm going to try to do a bit more wagering this season, and this tip (and the linked article) will be on my mind for sure. Bears should do very well ATS this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: The Matt Stafford conundrum remains perplexing. He is a good quarterback. The tape shows it, the raw numbers show it.... but the Lions on his watch rarely win games against good teams. They win the games they should win and lose the rest. It isn't like Stafford makes mistakes that lose them lots of those games..... but he also doesn't make the special play that wins enough of them either. Football is a team game and coaching matters. Despite great talent and initially, a defense-minded coach who is a very talented DC, the Lions have had a sucky D most of the time Stafford has been there. The other factor is that Stafford has become the poster child for why a strong armed QB who can rack up the yards might not win you games. Historically he throws too many picks. Part of that is team - the Lions historically have no rushing game to speak of, and being a "gamer" Stafford tries to carry the team on his arm. The run game hasn't changed under Jim Bob Cooter, but Stafford has cleaned up his INT act enough in the last few years that if given a strong D, the Lions might do something. We'll see what Patricia does with them. I thought it was interesting that he kept Cooter as OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Just now, Commonsense said: Bears should do very well ATS this season. I think the Bears are getting too much hype as a sleeper now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 If only wins and losses were a team stat and not a QB stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: Football is a team game and coaching matters. Despite great talent and initially, a defense-minded coach who is a very talented DC, the Lions have had a sucky D most of the time Stafford has been there. The other factor is that Stafford has become the poster child for why a strong armed QB who can rack up the yards might not win you games. Historically he throws too many picks. Part of that is team - the Lions historically have no rushing game to speak of, and being a "gamer" Stafford tries to carry the team on his arm. The run game hasn't changed under Jim Bob Cooter, but Stafford has cleaned up his INT act enough in the last few years that if given a strong D, the Lions might do something. We'll see what Patricia does with them. I thought it was interesting that he kept Cooter as OC. I think Stafford is good but his yardage total shows how completely irrelevant statistics are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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