[Vague Title] It continues... Josh Allen...

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I think it’s fair to say that if what GMs always say about the draft was really true - that’s it’s always about the game tape, not the Combine - that Josh Allen would not have been close to a 1st Round Draft pick. 

 

Nothing about his his college career indicates that he is a blossoming Star. 

 

He’s here largely for the same reason EJ ended up here. Our GM and HC can’t get Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers out of their heads, so they locked onto a 6’5” 235 pound rifle armed QB and will look to fix his accuracy issues. He has played in cold weather. But it’s eye opening that our GM on his first day of interviews after the draft is already mentioning Cam Newton by name. 

 

Leading up to the draft, Schopp and Bulldog had numerous draftniks on, a few liked Allen, but most thought the High first round valuation was inflated based on the game tape. Cosell pointed out his fundamental inaccuracy. 

 

How our Coach watched Deshaun Watson’s career at Clemson and decided that he was not worth #10 in 2017 (with the same GM that agreed EJ Manuel was a 1st Rounder after watching his college career), or Patrick Mahomes and his production for that matter, but that Allen was worth the 7th overall pick and trading up with an additional 2nd/3rd is really head scratching. 

 

They loved him, but it can’t be because he blew people away with college tape. It’s all potential based on size and arm. 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Try to look at it from a third person's point of view.  On the one hand you have a half dozen or more pro football scouts and coaches watching every play the guy has played in college, dozens of times and grading all aspects of his play.  Those guys conclude the player is a solid prospect.  On the other hand you have guy posting on a message suggesting he watched some film.  He concludes the guy can't cut it.  

 

Which opinion would YOU credit?  You really expect us to take your opinion over theirs because ALL of them were seeing things that really weren't there?  ALL of them thought the Emperor had clothes?

 

Have you ever met the Bills scouting staff?  I assume not.  So why would you conclude that they are completely misunderstanding the film they're watching?

Right. None of the 2018 prospects is a sure-fire starter. 

 

We could rationalize every single draft pick in that way. Every team has professional scouts and coaches who know exponentially more than Joe Fan. Even bottom feeders like the Browns or Jets have elite minds at the table. Teams still make bonehead decisions every year.

 

So what did they see on film that screamed "elite franchise QB"? I don't know. None of us were in the room, and all we have is a buttoned up, media friendly version from Beane and company. If you want to make it about analytics, well, that has been well documented: 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

My personal favorites: 

1 TD and 8 INT against 3 Power 5 FBS opponents in his career.  

He has more INT than TDs on the road in his career.

He completes 12% of his 40+ yard passes, when every other top prospect completed at least 30%.

He has 2 career 300+ yard games. 

 

This whole conversation is fundamentally insane. If the guy is such an amazing prospect, why aren't there any statistics that support the claim? 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Straight Hucklebuck]

17 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

We could rationalize every single draft pick in that way. Every team has professional scouts and coaches who know exponentially more than Joe Fan. Even bottom feeders like the Browns or Jets have elite minds at the table. Teams still make bonehead decisions every year.

 

So what did they see on film that screamed "elite franchise QB"? I don't know. None of us were in the room, and all we have is a buttoned up, media friendly version from Beane and company. If you want to make it about analytics, well, that has been well documented: 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

My personal favorites: 

1 TD and 8 INT against 3 Power 5 FBS opponents in his career.  

He has more INT than TDs on the road in his career.

He completes 12% of his 40+ yard passes, when every other top prospect completed at least 30%.

He has 2 career 300+ yard games. 

 

This whole conversation is fundamentally insane. If the guy is such an amazing prospect, why aren't there any statistics that support the claim? 

 

 

How could anyone read that SB article and not conclude Allen is a massive projection? 

 

His game tape tape is not good enough to be the 7th overall pick. 

 

Hes 6’5” with a rocket. 

 

By by the way, does our Coach even want to throw the ball deep? Every time he speaks it’s about cold weather and establishing physical nature. Does our GM want to throw deep? Kelvin Benjamin is a 6’5” 250 pound possession WR. Zay Jones who we traded up for is a possession WR. Who is going to get separation and catch all these Allen bombs? 

Edited July 25, 2018 by Straight Hucklebuck

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I don't know they say he wasn't accurate but I then watch him at the Senior Bowl, they couldn't blitz but they were coming after him and he threw some of the best passes I've seen in very tight windows that i see Brady, Manning etc throw all the time, I'm not saying he is anywhere near those guys but there is no way to tell at this stage.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Have you ever met the Bills scouting staff?  I assume not.  So why would you conclude that they are completely misunderstanding the film they're watching?

 

Personally it is because it didn't match what I was seeing. Now could I be wrong and they be right? Of course. But should I presume they are right because they are on an NFL scouting staff? Hell no, the NFL gets it wrong often enough for me to say that dissenting voices are not always the ones to be ignored.  

 

I see the ceiling.  And I guess NFL teams value that more than I do - I have said that repeatedly.  I also see the floor.  If Josh Allen in the NFL reaches his ceiling he can be special. If he is the same Quarterback he was in college he will be a bust.  Now most likely he falls somewhere in between.  Speculating where on that scale is hard.  Personally I always tend to lean towards what they have shown rather than the projection.  

 

I just hat the attitude that "they are on an NFL staff they must know best". Why must they? This isn't an exact science and views that come from outside an NFL building are perfectly valid ones.  

Edited July 25, 2018 by GunnerBill

[billsfan_34]

8 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

You don't have to argue with his analysis.  We didn't draft him.  

 

Now it's the fans faulty optimism that got him drafted?  C'mon

Thanks for the insight

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally it is because it didn't match what I was seeing. Now could I be wrong and they be right? Of course. But should I presume they are right because they are on an NFL scouting staff? Hell no, the NFL gets it wrong often enough for me to say that dissenting voices are not always the ones to be ignored.  

 

I see the ceiling.  And I guess NFL teams value that more than I do - I have said that repeatedly.  I also see the floor.  If Josh Allen in the NFL reaches his ceiling he can be special. If he is the same Quarterback he was in college he will be a bust.  Now most likely he falls somewhere in between.  Speculating where on that scale is hard.  Personally I always tend to lean towards what they have shown rather than the projection.  

 

I just hat the attitude that "they are on an NFL staff they must know best". Why must they? This isn't an exact science and views that come from outside an NFL building are perfectly valid ones.  

thank you. he's been spouting this faulty logic for years.

[SouthNYfan]

8 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

The new hot take champion ☝?☝?☝?

 

Is scorp dating Lamar's mom?

Is scorp actually Lamar's mom??

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

We could rationalize every single draft pick in that way. Every team has professional scouts and coaches who know exponentially more than Joe Fan. Even bottom feeders like the Browns or Jets have elite minds at the table. Teams still make bonehead decisions every year.

 

So what did they see on film that screamed "elite franchise QB"? I don't know. None of us were in the room, and all we have is a buttoned up, media friendly version from Beane and company. If you want to make it about analytics, well, that has been well documented: 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

My personal favorites: 

1 TD and 8 INT against 3 Power 5 FBS opponents in his career.  

He has more INT than TDs on the road in his career.

He completes 12% of his 40+ yard passes, when every other top prospect completed at least 30%.

He has 2 career 300+ yard games. 

 

This whole conversation is fundamentally insane. If the guy is such an amazing prospect, why aren't there any statistics that support the claim? 

 

 

You miss the point. The point is not that they may be wrong.  Even THEY know they might be wrong. 

 

The point is that YOU might be wrong and YOU behave like that's not possible. 

[SoTier]

18 hours ago, buffalostu2 said:

Doesn't Wentz pass this same test?

 

What exactly does Wentz' college career have to do with Allen other than they both attended smaller college programs?   That isn't even a fair comparison because NDSU has been a dominant power among the Div 1 (FSC) for several years while Wyoming has had a modestly successful team with a couple of bowl appearances but nothing special.  More to the point, the careers of Wentz and Allen have absolutely no connection.  The success or failure of one has absolutely no connection to the success or failure of the other. 

 

 

 

[PaattMaann]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally it is because it didn't match what I was seeing. Now could I be wrong and they be right? Of course. But should I presume they are right because they are on an NFL scouting staff? Hell no, the NFL gets it wrong often enough for me to say that dissenting voices are not always the ones to be ignored.  

 

I see the ceiling.  And I guess NFL teams value that more than I do - I have said that repeatedly.  I also see the floor.  If Josh Allen in the NFL reaches his ceiling he can be special. If he is the same Quarterback he was in college he will be a bust.  Now most likely he falls somewhere in between.  Speculating where on that scale is hard.  Personally I always tend to lean towards what they have shown rather than the projection.  

 

I just hat the attitude that "they are on an NFL staff they must know best". Why must they? This isn't an exact science and views that come from outside an NFL building are perfectly valid ones.  

 

SOME views are perfectly valid ones. 

 

Someone like you, who actually watches film and has a track record of evaluating players, has a perfectly valid view. 

 

PLENTY of people on this very message board just parrot what they hear or read from mainstream OR they form their own opinions without actually doing any film watching or research and take their own words as gospel. Both of these groups do not have a perfectly valid view.

 

Keep doing what your doing man, and like you, I hope you are wrong about Allen and the Bills brass gets it right (please dear god have gotten it right).

[oldmanfan]

Just a quick question for some here.  Would it be OK with you if we actually, you know, let the kid play and see how he does?  Would that be all right with you?  Or should we just boo him off the field the moment he sets foot on the practice field today?

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Just a quick question for some here.  Would it be OK with you if we actually, you know, let the kid play and see how he does?  Would that be all right with you?  Or should we just boo him off the field the moment he sets foot on the practice field today?

 

hes getting on the practice field TODAY?????

 

of course its OK for us to actually see him play, but bro, its a message board...this is the purpose, to discuss these things. Why do you come to this board?

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Just a quick question for some here.  Would it be OK with you if we actually, you know, let the kid play and see how he does?  Would that be all right with you?  Or should we just boo him off the field the moment he sets foot on the practice field today?

Camp starts tomorrow. 7/26

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

hes getting on the practice field TODAY?????

 

of course its OK for us to actually see him play, but bro, its a message board...this is the purpose, to discuss these things. Why do you come to this board?

Ok I had my date wrong by a day.  Why  come here?  To discuss.  But discussions should have some logical framework, and to claim a kid won't make it before he has even set foot on the field is inherently illogical.

 

People keep throwing this completion percentage out there like it's manna from heaven.  But if you do the math if he completed something like 10 more passes, or say he had 10 less drops, he magically hits the 60% mark and butterflies and unicorns arrive.  It just gets ridiculous.

 

Let the kid get on the field and then see what he does.  Don't get all insane if he misses a pass or two in camp, don't get all insane if he looks like the second coming of Peyton with a pass or two in camp.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally it is because it didn't match what I was seeing. Now could I be wrong and they be right? Of course. But should I presume they are right because they are on an NFL scouting staff? Hell no, the NFL gets it wrong often enough for me to say that dissenting voices are not always the ones to be ignored.  

 

I see the ceiling.  And I guess NFL teams value that more than I do - I have said that repeatedly.  I also see the floor.  If Josh Allen in the NFL reaches his ceiling he can be special. If he is the same Quarterback he was in college he will be a bust.  Now most likely he falls somewhere in between.  Speculating where on that scale is hard.  Personally I always tend to lean towards what they have shown rather than the projection.  

 

I just hat the attitude that "they are on an NFL staff they must know best". Why must they? This isn't an exact science and views that come from outside an NFL building are perfectly valid ones.  

 

With the Bills FO staff, they've made so many poor choices drafting first rounders over the last 20 years that most of their top picks can be questioned even by fans with minimal football knowledge ... 

 

1999 - Antoine Winfield - 23

2000 - Erik Flowers - 26

2001 - Nate Clements - 21

2002 - Mike Williams - 4

2003 - Willis McGahee - 23

2004 - Lee Evans - 13; JP Losman - 22

2006 - Donte Whitner - 8

2007 - Marshawn Lynch - 12

2008 - Leodis McKelvin - 11

2009 - Aaron Maybin - 11;  Eric Wood - 28

2010 - CJ Spiller - 9

2011 - Marcell Dareus - 3

2012 - Stephon Gilmore - 10

2013 - EJ Manuel - 16

2014 - Sammy Watkins - 4

2016 - Shaq Lawson - 19

2017 - TreDavious White - 27

 

No first round picks in 1998, 2005, 2015

 

While the Bills coaching staff and FO have swapped personnel over the years with some regularity, most of the scouting staff really didn't change all that much until Beane took over last year.  Unfortunately, the 2018 draft has the same "feel" as previous drafts ... another gamble on the proverbial "high risk/high reward" prospect while leaving better prospects on the board.

 

 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally it is because it didn't match what I was seeing. Now could I be wrong and they be right? Of course. But should I presume they are right because they are on an NFL scouting staff? Hell no, the NFL gets it wrong often enough for me to say that dissenting voices are not always the ones to be ignored.  

 

I see the ceiling.  And I guess NFL teams value that more than I do - I have said that repeatedly.  I also see the floor.  If Josh Allen in the NFL reaches his ceiling he can be special. If he is the same Quarterback he was in college he will be a bust.  Now most likely he falls somewhere in between.  Speculating where on that scale is hard.  Personally I always tend to lean towards what they have shown rather than the projection.  

 

I just hat the attitude that "they are on an NFL staff they must know best". Why must they? This isn't an exact science and views that come from outside an NFL building are perfectly valid ones.  

Sure, you can be supremely confident that your opinion, based on your examination of whatever you've studied, is correct and that the opinion of the Bills' coaches and scouting staff is wrong.   You are correct in your opinions sometime, and all coaches and scouting staffs are wrong some time.

 

But what about me, a third person, listening to you and listening to the Bills scouting staff.  What am I supposed to conclude?    What I'm going to do is trust the Bills' coaches and scouting staff.   Why?   Because each of them (not to mention all of them collectively) has more knowledge, more experience, more information available and more time to study than you do.   They are true experts in their field and you aren't; you're just a reasonably well-informed amateur.  They've seen everything you've seen, EVERYTHING, and they've considered it all.   They see the problems you see, and they've considered how to fix those problems.   They know better how to fix those problems, because they've been teaching football for 15 or 20 years and they know how to teach football.

 

Does that mean the experts are always right?  Of course not, we all know that.   But for me, a third party listening to you on the one hand and the Bills on the other, the only way I can conclude yours is the better opinion is to decide that I'm going to trust you simply because you're saying I should.   I choose to trust the experts.

 

I choose to trust these guys particularly because of my growing respect for how hard they work, for how much they study the details, for the work they put into what they do.  They maximize their chances of success by their work ethic.

 

Still, they may be wrong.   I get that.   But I'm not going to decide for myself that they are wrong because you say they are.   It's illogical.   

Edited July 25, 2018 by Shaw66

[Sky Diver]

12 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

With the Bills FO staff, they've made so many poor choices drafting first rounders over the last 20 years that most of their top picks can be questioned even by fans with minimal football knowledge ... 

 

1999 - Antoine Winfield - 23

2000 - Erik Flowers - 26

2001 - Nate Clements - 21

2002 - Mike Williams - 4

2003 - Willis McGahee - 23

2004 - Lee Evans - 13; JP Losman - 22

2006 - Donte Whitner - 8

2007 - Marshawn Lynch - 12

2008 - Leodis McKelvin - 11

2009 - Aaron Maybin - 11;  Eric Wood - 28

2010 - CJ Spiller - 9

2011 - Marcell Dareus - 3

2012 - Stephon Gilmore - 10

2013 - EJ Manuel - 16

2014 - Sammy Watkins - 4

2016 - Shaq Lawson - 19

2017 - TreDavious White - 27

 

No first round picks in 1998, 2005, 2015

 

While the Bills coaching staff and FO have swapped personnel over the years with some regularity, most of the scouting staff really didn't change all that much until Beane took over last year.  Unfortunately, the 2018 draft has the same "feel" as previous drafts ... another gamble on the proverbial "high risk/high reward" prospect while leaving better prospects on the board.

 

 

 

We have one data point for the new regime, Tre White. That's looking like a pretty good pick.

 

Who is this "better prospect" you speak of?

Edited July 25, 2018 by Sky Diver

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

We have one data point for the new regime, Tre White. That's looking like a pretty good pick.

Even that was McD w/ Whaley, not Beane. This year was our new front office's first draft together.

[Stank_Nasty]

14 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

 

While the Bills coaching staff and FO have swapped personnel over the years with some regularity, most of the scouting staff really didn't change all that much until Beane took over last year.  Unfortunately, the 2018 draft has the same "feel" as previous drafts ... another gamble on the proverbial "high risk/high reward" prospect while leaving better prospects on the board.

 

 

Bringing up 20 years worth of failures in an argument against the new staff that has already NAILED their 2017 pick and then broke the drought with massive roster turnover is really REALLY foolish IMO. 

 

And make sure not to lump how all the fans “feel” about this draft in with your thoughts. It may have that “feel” to you. But I’m absolutely fine with how things shook out, as are plenty of others with even heads on their shoulders. I see no reason not to give the new staff the benefit of the doubt until they’vd proven they don’t deserve it. 

 

So far so good.