Scorp83 Posted July 25, 2018 Author Posted July 25, 2018 48 minutes ago, billspro said: Obviously you didn’t see his accuracy after working with Palmer. Did you not pay attention to the offseason? Again people continue to confuse accuracy with completion percentage. Allen’s incompletions were rarely due to accuracy issues. He did have some accuracy issues at times in the flats. His incompletions were mostly due to poor oline play, lack or WR separation, throwing late, and decision making. I am tired of it. I had Allen rated as my 6th QB based on his senior tape. Saying that when you factor in junior tape and the offseason he has the most potential of any QB in this class. I think 7 QBs have a chance to be franchise guys, it was a really good QB class. The odds are 50% of them bust. I hope Allen isn’t one of the busts. Lamar Jackson has the most potential pal... dont be that much of a Allen trooper to ignore how great Lamar Jackson is. Plus, he might beat out Flacco... it's not like he's going up against Nathan Peterson or AJ McCarron for the starting job. That fact that both Rosen & Jackson might win their starting jobs are telling how good they were coming out. Those 2 are going against legitimate competition... I can't say the same for our guy. I was concerned about Allen coming, I didn't sleep for 48hrs after we drafted him cause it was just a bad pick, I'm still concerned about him now entering camp. People were afraid of Wilson being great after we took TJ Graham over him... this is probably much worse. Every metric, every statistic says... Allen could bust out. I'm of course hoping for the best... if he's Stafford... I will GLADLY accept my wrongness & eat cooked spinach! (I hate cooked spinach...I love it raw more). But my energy for Allen is not through the roof. If anything, I'm looking at QB next year cause I feel like we possibly could bottom out, especially if we lose Shady. Allen will have to be DeSean Watson good... to ignite this fanbase.
CommonCents Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Scorp83 said: Lamar Jackson has the most potential pal... dont be that much of a Allen trooper to ignore how great Lamar Jackson is. Plus, he might beat out Flacco... it's not like he's going up against Nathan Peterson or AJ McCarron for the starting job. That fact that both Rosen & Jackson might win their starting jobs are telling how good they were coming out. Those 2 are going against legitimate competition... I can't say the same for our guy. I was concerned about Allen coming, I didn't sleep for 48hrs after we drafted him cause it was just a bad pick, I'm still concerned about him now entering camp. People were afraid of Wilson being great after we took TJ Graham over him... this is probably much worse. Every metric, every statistic says... Allen could bust out. I'm of course hoping for the best... if he's Stafford... I will GLADLY accept my wrongness & eat cooked spinach! (I hate cooked spinach...I love it raw more). But my energy for Allen is not through the roof. If anything, I'm looking at QB next year cause I feel like we possibly could bottom out, especially if we lose Shady. Allen will have to be DeSean Watson good... to ignite this fanbase. Bahaha Lamar Jackson beat out Flacco. 2
billsfan_34 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 8 hours ago, Fadingpain said: This is the sort of thing I have been saying since the moment we drafted him. He is a perfect test case for old school "I know what I see" football people vs. new age data driven analysis. The former loves his size, arm strength, and potential; the latter suggests he is highly unlikely to become even a serviceable NFL QB. There is tremendous optimism for his success at this forum, but it is not rooted in persuasive data. It is simply a function of many good Bills fans being beyond desperate to finally have a real QB. It's been a while. Cant argue with your analysis- lets hope our “football guys” have this one right. If not this will set us back another 5 years. 2
billspro Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, Scorp83 said: Lamar Jackson has the most potential pal... dont be that much of a Allen trooper to ignore how great Lamar Jackson is. Plus, he might beat out Flacco... it's not like he's going up against Nathan Peterson or AJ McCarron for the starting job. That fact that both Rosen & Jackson might win their starting jobs are telling how good they were coming out. Those 2 are going against legitimate competition... I can't say the same for our guy. I was concerned about Allen coming, I didn't sleep for 48hrs after we drafted him cause it was just a bad pick, I'm still concerned about him now entering camp. People were afraid of Wilson being great after we took TJ Graham over him... this is probably much worse. Every metric, every statistic says... Allen could bust out. I'm of course hoping for the best... if he's Stafford... I will GLADLY accept my wrongness & eat cooked spinach! (I hate cooked spinach...I love it raw more). But my energy for Allen is not through the roof. If anything, I'm looking at QB next year cause I feel like we possibly could bottom out, especially if we lose Shady. Allen will have to be DeSean Watson good... to ignite this fanbase. I’m not a big Lamar Jackson fan, I would much rather have Allen. If I was GM I would probably have played it safer and taken Rosen. I don’t blame them for swinging for the fences with Allen. We have not had an elite QB in a long time.
Thirdborn Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 7 hours ago, thenorthremembers said: Statistical analysis of both on the field performance and athletic measurables would tell you E.J. Manuel should have been a better than average starting quarterback in the league. This
Stank_Nasty Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 23 minutes ago, Scorp83 said: Lamar Jackson has the most potential pal... dont be that much of a Allen trooper to ignore how great Lamar Jackson is. Plus, he might beat out Flacco... it's not like he's going up against Nathan Peterson or AJ McCarron for the starting job. That fact that both Rosen & Jackson might win their starting jobs are telling how good they were coming out. Those 2 are going against legitimate competition... I can't say the same for our guy. I was concerned about Allen coming, I didn't sleep for 48hrs after we drafted him cause it was just a bad pick, I'm still concerned about him now entering camp. People were afraid of Wilson being great after we took TJ Graham over him... this is probably much worse. Every metric, every statistic says... Allen could bust out. I'm of course hoping for the best... if he's Stafford... I will GLADLY accept my wrongness & eat cooked spinach! (I hate cooked spinach...I love it raw more). But my energy for Allen is not through the roof. If anything, I'm looking at QB next year cause I feel like we possibly could bottom out, especially if we lose Shady. Allen will have to be DeSean Watson good... to ignite this fanbase. This is all so dramatic. Good lord dude. And don’t lump the fan base in with your awful takes. He won’t have to go on a record setting tear to start his career off(watson) as the only way to ignite the fan base. Give me a freaking break. This basically says there is nothing he can do short of putting up numbers no rookie has ever seen for you to buy in. Which means your mind is already made up no matter what happens..... comical stuff here.
Bangarang Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, billspro said: He played well from all reports You are in your own delusional little world apparently. Edited July 25, 2018 by Bangarang 1
Bill_with_it Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 44 minutes ago, Scorp83 said: Lamar Jackson has the most potential pal... dont be that much of a Allen trooper to ignore how great Lamar Jackson is. Plus, he might beat out Flacco... it's not like he's going up against Nathan Peterson or AJ McCarron for the starting job. That fact that both Rosen & Jackson might win their starting jobs are telling how good they were coming out. Those 2 are going against legitimate competition... I can't say the same for our guy. I was concerned about Allen coming, I didn't sleep for 48hrs after we drafted him cause it was just a bad pick, I'm still concerned about him now entering camp. People were afraid of Wilson being great after we took TJ Graham over him... this is probably much worse. Every metric, every statistic says... Allen could bust out. I'm of course hoping for the best... if he's Stafford... I will GLADLY accept my wrongness & eat cooked spinach! (I hate cooked spinach...I love it raw more). But my energy for Allen is not through the roof. If anything, I'm looking at QB next year cause I feel like we possibly could bottom out, especially if we lose Shady. Allen will have to be DeSean Watson good... to ignite this fanbase. Wrong. Maybe to ignite you. Lamar has no more potential than Allen. Do you recall in OTAs they were lining him up at we? What legitimate QB does that? I mean a rookie should be lining up at quarterback regularly, not like some veteran in a gadget play. You don’t really believe what you type do you? 2
Zerovoltz Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 7 hours ago, HappyDays said: I'm kind of shocked a writer for Football Outsiders doesn't understand that the deep ball is only like 20% of why arm strength is important. The rest of it is the ability to execute plays in a timing offense to perfection. Take Peterman's last pass in the Jaguars game. He actually threw the ball right on time and arguably made the correct read. But it didn't matter because Jalen Ramsey was able to get to the ball. If Allen makes that exact throw, it wouldn't be an interception. At best Ramsey could have broken up the ball. The ability to throw the ball faster than a defender can catch up to it gives Allen a tremendous edge over other passers. Obviously that alone won't be enough. But anyone who sums up arm strength as "can throw the ball far" is way off the mark. .....you keep suggesting Mahomes will be a bust but this is a huge part of his game....getting a ball to the target like a lazer. 4 hours ago, Da webster guy said: I love how they use the term "empirical evidence" as some sort of qualification. That literally means they haven't witnessed or observed him having success in the NFL. Sadly, this hack writing is clickbait crap and they got me. Well done hacks...... The writer didn't really think this through....the evidence that Allen would be great are his combine measurables...wich are optimal for an NFL QB....that alone got the guy drafted 7th overall....the size, arm, wonderlic...GREAT STUFF.....and all of it is evidence that points to the idea the kid could be successful. What he, and pretty much anyone should be saying isn't that there are serious questions about why that has not translated very well to onfield results.....that's been the question since pre draft....who is Josh Allen? Another in a long line of perfect size, arm strength etc that just couldn't make it happen....OR....is he that perfect specimen who came from a small nowhere high school, to a small no where JUCO..to a small D-1 program...and never ever did get coaching or play around the kind of up and coming talent to grow his skill set with? I've been on record all over this forum saying I don't think he will make it...but I have always maintained that HE COULD if you believe the scouting reports and your own coahces.....and that goes right along with who they think they got...the super talented kid that never did have the proper environment to reach his potential. I'd hate to use a soccer analogy, but in that world...it's often said of american players...in order to develop to the fullest and take their game to the next level, they need to go play in Europe, around better players and better coaching. Someone had mentioned the QBASE metric that suggests Allen will fail....because all 27 other QB's who ever had negative QBase like Allen, also failed...that poster correctly pointed out doesn't mean ever QB who ever scores that low will fail.....because it is a metric...and it doesn't know if Allen really is this star talent that just hasn't been put in position to grow. learn and improve with the right conditions etc. Frankly, its an incredible gamble and very interesting to see how it works out.... I disagree this would be a victory for the "old school" ...but rather this WOULD be a victory for folks who really did identify a talented kid and realised that he was FAR FAR off from his actual potential.......other prototypical QB's who failed, came to the leauge much more developed and polished...having played in higher level programs from youth onward. Again, I don't think he'll make it...BUT....I'm very willing to believe that he COULD....I do think there is something to the idea that his developmental years were not well spent on football development and there is a lot of room there to be couched up, unlike so many other prospects. Should be interesting.
White Linen Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 56 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said: Cant argue with your analysis- lets hope our “football guys” have this one right. If not this will set us back another 5 years. You don't have to argue with his analysis. We didn't draft him. Now it's the fans faulty optimism that got him drafted? C'mon
stuvian Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...yup...saw some in a Cornwall strip club...... How was it? Do they compare favourably to those in Niagara Falls? *** we need to realize that the people who run these websites don't know any more than any of us. The football writing on 2BD is just as good (pauses for applause). As an aside its' time we all banded together to start something online. I suspect that some day a geek will write an algorithm that can predict QB success but that day hasn't arrived yet. I expect Allen to eventually play like Cam Newton and yes I'd be quite fine with that Edited July 25, 2018 by stuvian 1
Lv-Bills Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 9 hours ago, RobH063 said: Mike Trout struck out hundreds of times growing up playing baseball. He made hundreds of errors too. I knew he would never be any good. .....said no one ever.
Buffalo86 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 (edited) Apologies for the length of this, but someone did an analysis of QBs who completed 58.5% or less of their passes during their last full college season. Below is the list of all QBs drafted 2002-2014 who met this criteria. I hope the Bills hit it big with Allen, but this list is pretty scary: Year of Draft QB College Final Year Completion Percentage Draft Result 2014 Logan Thomas Virginia Tech 56.5% R4, P120- Arizona Went 1-for-9 with Arizona in 2014 before being released at the end of the 2015 preseason after just 1 season 2013 BJ Daniels South Florida 56.9% R7, P237- San Francisco Never made the active roster with the 49ers. Switched to WR in 2015 2012 Ryan Lindley San Diego State 53% R6, P185- Arizona Finished career with 3 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Threw 0 touchdowns and 7 interceptions his rookie season. Currently in the CFL with the Ottawa RedBlacks 2011 Jake Locker Washington 55.4% R1, P8- Tennessee Retired after suffering numerous injuries. Finished with just 27 touchdown passes in 4 seasons, and never had a completion percentage above 61% in any season. Titans go 9-14 under Locker 2011 Nathan Enderle Idaho 56.7% R5, P160- Chicago Never threw a pass in the NFL. Cut after 1 season with the Bears 2010 Jonathan Crompton Tennessee 58.3% R5, P168- San Diego Never made an active roster at the NFL level, and was cut after the 2010 preseason by the Chargers 2010 Rusty Smith Florida Atlantic 57.3% R6, P176- Tennessee Finished his career with 0 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. Lone start in his career was a 20-0 shutout to the Texans 2008 Chad Henne Michigan 58.3% R2, P57- Miami Finished 4-year career with the Dolphins with 31 touchdowns and 37 interceptions. Currently is the backup on the Jaguars 2008 Kevin O’Connell San Diego State 58.5% R3, P94- New England Threw a grand total of 6 passes during his NFL career for 23 yards 2008 Matt Flynn LSU 56.3% R7, P209- Green Bay One of the few on this list to work out, but this is speaking strictly as a value pick in the 7th round for a backup QB. Highlight of career- throwing for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns in the 2011 season finale against Detroit 2007 Isaiah Stanback Washington 53.4% R4, P103- Dallas Converted to WR. Never threw a pass in the NFL 2006 Reggie McNeal Texas A&M 53.2% R6, P193- Cincinnati Converted to WR. Never threw a pass in the NFL 2006 DJ Shockley Georgia 55.8% R7, P223- Atlanta Never threw an NFL pass. Only passes in professional football came as a member of the Omaha Nighthawks in 2010 of the UFL, where he went 2-for-5 with an interception 2004 Luke McCown Louisiana Tech 56.9% R4, P106- Cleveland Played 1 season with the Browns before being traded in 2005. Threw 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, failing to win a game in any of his 4 starts 2004 Craig Krenzel Ohio State 55% R5, P148- Chicago Started 5 games for the Bears, throwing 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Cut by the Bears in 2005 2004 Jim Sorgi Wisconsin 56.5% R6, P193- Indianapolis Never started an NFL game (in fairness to Sorgi, Peyton Manning was the QB ahead of him on the depth chart) 2004 Cody Pickett Washington 56.6% R7, P217- San Francisco Started 2 games for the 49ers in 2 seasons, throwing 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Traded to the Texans in 2006 2004 Casey Bramlet Wyoming 56.7% R7, P218- Cincinnati Never played a down for the Bengals, and was released in 2005 2003 Kyle Boller California 53.4% R1, P19- Baltimore Want to preface this by saying this was Boller’s highest completion percentage in college.It was the first year he threw above 50%. No idea what the Ravens were thinking here, even with the benefit of hindsight. He winds up completing just 56.9% of his passes with the Ravens, and finished with 45 touchdowns on 44 interceptions. He started double-digit games for the Ravens just once over 6 seasons 2003 Rex Grossman Florida 57.1% R1, P22- Chicago He made a Super Bowl as a starting QB… but not because of his play. He finished his 6 seasons in Chicago with 33 TDs on just 35 interceptions, and only started 8 games in a season once in 6 years with the Bears 2003 Dave Ragone Louisville 53.7% R3, P88- Houston Spent 3 years with the Texans, and never threw a touchdown pass. Played in just 2 games, where he lost both of them and completed just 50% of his passes for 135 yards 2003 Seneca Wallace Iowa State 55.1% R4, P110- Seattle This pick actually worked out for Seattle. Not a good starter, but a serviceable backup. Played 7 seasons with the Seahawks, and when called into action, threw 25 touchdowns on 14 interceptions. Never started more than 8 games in a season for any team 2003 Brian St. Pierre Boston College 58.2% R5, P163- Pittsburgh Threw just 1 pass for the Steelers in 2 seasons. Got cut at the end of the 2005 preseason 2003 Brooks Bollinger Wisconsin 53.5% R6, P200- NY Jets Played 3 seasons for the Jets, where he went just 2-7 and threw a grand total of 7 touchdown passes in 12 games over 9 starts. He was named the UFL MVP in 2009, though, so at least he’s got that going for him 2003 Gibran Hamdan Indiana 51.9% R7, P232- Washington First player of Pakistani descent to ever play in the NFL. Finished his career with just 2 passes thrown and 7 yards, playing just 1 season with Washington 2003 Ken Dorsey Miami (FL) 56.5% R7, P241- San Francisco Went just 2-8 with the 49ers and 2-11 over his career. Played 3 seasons with the 49ers, throwing 8 touchdowns on 11 interceptions, and finished his career with 8 TDs on 18 INTs. Had a career completion percentage of just 52.5% 2002 Patrick Ramsey Tulane 57.1% R1, P32- Washington Completed just 55.7% of his passes with Washington, only starting 8+ games in a season once over 4 years. Started just 24 games, despite being a first round pick 2002 David Garrard ECU 56.6% R4, P108- Jacksonville Hands down, the best player on this list. Solid starting QB for the Jaguars before his release after the 2011 preseason. Threw 89 touchdowns for the Jaguars while starting 76 games, and made the Pro Bowl in 2009 (don’t know how he made the Pro Bowl that year, but it makes up for 2007, when he didn’t make it despite throwing just 3 interceptions, and none before the start of December) 2002 Randy Fasani Stanford 51.5% R5, P137- Carolina Played 4 games for the Panthers and started 1. In that start, he went 5-for-18 with no touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 46 yards, and a 0.0 passer rating. Not surprisingly, he did not play for the Panthers after 2002 2002 Kurt Kittner Illinois 55.3% R5, P158- Atlanta Played 2 seasons for the Falcons, where he completed 38.6% of his passes, threw 6 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 32.5. For comparison, if I entered an NFL game and threw nothing but incomplete passes, my passer rating would be higher than that 2002 Steve Bellisari Ohio State 53% R6, P205- St. Louis Rams Converted to safety for some reason. Never played a game with the Rams 2002 Ronald Curry North Carolina 46.3% R7, P235- Oakland Why you’d draft a QB that had a career completion percentage of 49.6% and threw just 8 touchdowns in 10 games in his senior year on a 46.3% completion percentage, I don’t know. He got converted to WR straight away https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/ As for what happened after 2014: 2015 yielded Trevor Siemian. 2016 brought Christian Hackenberg & Connor Cook. 2017 was the coming of C.J. Beathard. Maybe none of this means anything, but frankly, I don't like my QB running with that type of crowd Edited July 25, 2018 by Buffalo86 3
greeneblitz Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 Just another clownish analytics guy that is determined to be right about his pre draft analysis no matter what, yet guys like this never, ever own up when they're wrong. As far as I'm concerned the analytics guys fad has come and gone, it may have it's tactical in game uses but the "experts" spew mostly nonsense.
Teddy KGB Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Scorp83 said: Lamar Jackson has the most potential pal The new hot take champion ☝?☝?☝? 2 1
MakeBuffaloGreatAgain Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 Anyone surprised by the OP’s post? Typical doom and gloom.
Shaw66 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 4 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said: Of course not. They saw a franchise QB. Would you expect them to say otherwise? I'm sure they could explain away all of his flaws. Try to look at it from a third person's point of view. On the one hand you have a half dozen or more pro football scouts and coaches watching every play the guy has played in college, dozens of times and grading all aspects of his play. Those guys conclude the player is a solid prospect. On the other hand you have guy posting on a message suggesting he watched some film. He concludes the guy can't cut it. Which opinion would YOU credit? You really expect us to take your opinion over theirs because ALL of them were seeing things that really weren't there? ALL of them thought the Emperor had clothes? Have you ever met the Bills scouting staff? I assume not. So why would you conclude that they are completely misunderstanding the film they're watching? 3 hours ago, White Linen said: That's correct and it's the same worry for every QB prospect, he's no different. All the top prospects have skills and question marks. They all have an opportunity to see if they can hang in the NFL. Most wont and some will and there's a possibility a 2nd or 3rd flight prospect out performs all of them. It's the way it goes. I'm not trying to speak for you but I'm personally tired of hearing about how especially long our prospects odds are. Right. None of the 2018 prospects is a sure-fire starter.
Shaw66 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said: The writer didn't really think this through....the evidence that Allen would be great are his combine measurables...wich are optimal for an NFL QB....that alone got the guy drafted 7th overall....the size, arm, wonderlic...GREAT STUFF.....and all of it is evidence that points to the idea the kid could be successful. What he, and pretty much anyone should be saying isn't that there are serious questions about why that has not translated very well to onfield results.....that's been the question since pre draft....who is Josh Allen? Another in a long line of perfect size, arm strength etc that just couldn't make it happen....OR....is he that perfect specimen who came from a small nowhere high school, to a small no where JUCO..to a small D-1 program...and never ever did get coaching or play around the kind of up and coming talent to grow his skill set with? I've been on record all over this forum saying I don't think he will make it...but I have always maintained that HE COULD if you believe the scouting reports and your own coahces.....and that goes right along with who they think they got...the super talented kid that never did have the proper environment to reach his potential. I'd hate to use a soccer analogy, but in that world...it's often said of american players...in order to develop to the fullest and take their game to the next level, they need to go play in Europe, around better players and better coaching. Someone had mentioned the QBASE metric that suggests Allen will fail....because all 27 other QB's who ever had negative QBase like Allen, also failed...that poster correctly pointed out doesn't mean ever QB who ever scores that low will fail.....because it is a metric...and it doesn't know if Allen really is this star talent that just hasn't been put in position to grow. learn and improve with the right conditions etc. Frankly, its an incredible gamble and very interesting to see how it works out.... I disagree this would be a victory for the "old school" ...but rather this WOULD be a victory for folks who really did identify a talented kid and realised that he was FAR FAR off from his actual potential.......other prototypical QB's who failed, came to the leauge much more developed and polished...having played in higher level programs from youth onward. Again, I don't think he'll make it...BUT....I'm very willing to believe that he COULD....I do think there is something to the idea that his developmental years were not well spent on football development and there is a lot of room there to be couched up, unlike so many other prospects. Should be interesting. This is good. Who is Josh Allen? Exactly. I'd guess that what the Bills and others saw is a guy who hasn't had the opportunity to grow into all he can be. He hasn't been in big programs anywhere, hasn't had big expectationso thrust on him. The word used most often to criticize Allen pre-draft wasn't accuracy,nit was "raw." The questions is what will he be when he's cooked?
Paulus Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said: The new hot take champion ☝?☝?☝? I am assuming he linked to his own website.
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