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[Vague Title] It continues... Josh Allen...


Scorp83

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I guess we'll see.

 

I've voiced many of the same accuracy concerns, and was very vocal that I preferred Josh Rosen.  At the same time, a very large chunk of NFL Scouts (the guys who get paid to do this) had Josh Allen ranked extremely high.  Even the team that actually drafted Rosen reportedly preferred Allen. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I guess we'll see.

 

I've voiced many of the same accuracy concerns, and was very vocal that I preferred Josh Rosen.  At the same time, a very large chunk of NFL Scouts (the guys who get paid to do this) had Josh Allen ranked extremely high.  Even the team that actually drafted Rosen reportedly preferred Allen. 

 

 

It was said that Pat Shurmur himself had Allen rated as the #1 QB of this class.

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15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not saying whether Allen make it or not.   What I'm saying is it isn't worth reading someone who's so imprecise with his words that his opinion becomes untrustworthy.  

 

He said there's NO empirical emphasis suggesting Allen can make it.   NO means none, zero.   Well, that's nonsense.   How's 6'5", 240 pounds?   That's empirical evidence.   How's a 4.75 40-yard dash?  That's empirical evidence.  How's a 37 on the Wonderlic?  That's empirical evidence.   How's the strongest arm in the class, and among the strongest in the league?  That's empirical evidence.   So Allen is bigger, stronger than all of the QBs in his draft class and has the strongest arm.   It's pure nonsense to say there's no evidence.   

 

One thing above all else is clear about McBeane - they do their homework.   They are NOT trading up like they did to take someone who doesn't have a shot, so for some bozo sitting at a keyboard, some clown who hasn't coached football for one day in his life, to write that stuff is truly not worth your time or mine.   

 

 

Every team in the league does their homework, and they still make foolish mistakes every draft. The Bills are no different. 

 

Zero is a strong statement. With the advanced statistics that exist, I am sure there are some areas where Allen looks impressive. Maybe snow games in Laramie, or when the offense is in Dick Jauron mode and goes "run-run-pass". I don't know. I do know that there are tons of statistics, and not ones that are narrow in scope, out there where Allen looks quite poor, and that is concerning until he proves otherwise. 

 


 

 

Edited by TheElectricCompany
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An article written last week I believe indicated just how Beane and co. came to the conclusion Josh Allen was their guy. We don't know if they had the overall pick if they would have picked Darnold or Mayfield, but we DO know they could have chosen Rosen and they didn't. The process to me was one where if the Bills miss on Allen, and honestly it will take at least 3 full years to know that definitively, it will NOT be for a lack of effort, focus, or resources. It will simply be they overestimated their ability to correct the footwork. Because in the end, when you drill down to the reason they looked past the incompletion percentages, was they believed it all came down to correctable footwork problems. So, they're either right or they're wrong. For now, and for the entire first year Josh Allen actually plays, be it this year or next, I will give Beane and team the benefit of the doubt. The same I did with EJ after one whole season of playing. 

 

I was NOT a Josh Allen supporter or fan, but at this point, Beane and his cohorts deserve the benefit of the doubt regarding evaluating a QB. Mainly, because how they went about it speaks to their thorough commitment to locating the right QB and because we have nothing to support or detract from their judgment just yet. So, all in all....we'll see. But, I liked the process of how they came to that decision and it made a lot of sense as to why they made Allen their selection: it wasn't just the big arm and he's a big kid thing...it was so much more complex and intricate. Let's hope for the best. 

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Fans have forever complained that we have not selected a franchise quarterback in the draft. So now we select one and what do they do? Complain! I have an idea, let's let the kid marinade in training camp and see what happens. How does that sound?

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15 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Every team in the league does their homework, and they still make foolish mistakes every draft. The Bills are no different. 

 

Zero is a strong statement. With the advanced statistics that exist, I am sure there are some areas where Allen looks impressive. Maybe snow games in Laramie, or when the offense is in Dick Jauron mode and goes "run-run-pass". I don't know. I do know that there are tons of statistics, and not ones that are narrow in scope, out there where Allen looks quite poor, and that is concerning until he proves otherwise. 

 


 

 

All I'm saying is this guy isn't worth reading.   It's my opinion.  Unlike the guy who wrote the article, I backed up my opinion with facts.  

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Ho hum.  We all know there are articles like this out there.  His struggles in his final season gives plenty of amunition for skeptics as his measurables and obvious intelligence gives the same to advocates.  In the end, we just need to see how it plays out when he's on the field.

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Football might be the worst sport for analytics which requires independent variables run in many test cases  - its virtually impossible to measure/predict accurately without knowing the full system, talent on his side of the ball and talent on the other side of the ball.

 

Analytics works great for a solo hitter playing 162 games....no so for a QB playing 10 college games

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 This offense was ranked #1 WORST position group in the entire NFL. Bottom line: high potential with high risk. Get some serious help on the OL, WR, TE and RB before starting Allen. I think the odds are against him, but I really hope he's our franchise QB.

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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. 

 

He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback.  What?   He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence.   He can run, so that's some empirical evidence.   He had a 37 on the Wonderlic.   That's some empirical evidence.  His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward.  That's some empirical evidence.  

 

There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks:  If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL.   These guys haven't even been to training camp.  At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point.   None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust.   

 

Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work.   Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible.   Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing.  

 

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think the 4th of those is opinion.  His 2016 tape is better (not a lot, but better) than his 2017 tape.  

 

He played pretty well at the Senior Bowl.  He ended 9-13 for 150 yards, 19 yards rushing, with 2 TD passes.  Not too shabby.  Baker Mayfield, on the same team, (the North) looked abysmal.  Mayfield went 3-7 for 9 yards with -4 yards rushing.  My memory is that Mayifled left the game after only a few series, because of some family issue.  So Mayfield definitely had an excuse for not being able to perform.  Tanner Lee (6th round QB to Jax) also was on the North and didn't perform too well

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Ill admit I thought we drafted the wrong Josh at first.  But the more I thought about it I definitely came around.  Im sure ill get torched for this but, Rosen seems too mentally soft to handle buffalo, the weather, lifestyle around here.  Plus his dads a spinal surgeon and hes had 2 concussions, how much does he really want it?

  This might all mean jack, but Allen was baling hay in high school trying to get a shot.  No Manning camps, coaches, or pros to guide him. Ill take his grind, plus McBeanes guidance over whatever Rosen would have been.

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