[Vague Title] It continues... Josh Allen...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Scorp83 said:

Hour 1 from Howard & Jeremy this morning on the Football Outsiders write up...(which I've posted the link below).

 

https://app.radio.com/s2OuDBPrGO

 

 

Man... this guy scares me. This write up.... wow.

 

 

 

From the Write Up:

 

"A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect, Allen was abysmal in 2017 en route to not even making an all-Mountain West team. We don't want to say there's absolutely no chance he'll ever be good – he's got a deep ball, he's got some ability to make plays on the run and under pressure – but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback. And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense. ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they're right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it."

 

 

 

[BN] Blitz newsletter: Get your popcorn ready for this Josh Allen take – The Buffalo News
https://buffalonews.com/2018/07/24/josh-allen-take-football-outsiders-bills-almanac-scouts/

 

This is really old news.  The bottom line is that the stats geeks think and have always thought Allen is a high probability bust.  "The evidence" that suggests he's a bust, consists of statistical slicing and dicing of his college career.

 

To claim that "all the evidence" suggests that Allen is a bust, is to ignore the eyeball evidence of old-school scouting, which properly ought to be considered part of the evidence (even if it's a part the stats geeks don't favor).  I think that's a mistake.  Statistics tell you something, but part of what they tell you is "look under the hood and see what's going on here".  The Bills claim to have done just that as part of their scouting process.

 

Stats are powerful predictive tools within their applicable range.  That RANGE would be the same level of competition - eg the NBA, the NFL, major league baseball.  The reason stats haven't proven to be a foolproof panacea to predict college player success in the NFL, is that even within D1, the schemes being run and the talent level are so different that a certain degree of "eyeball test" and sanity checking are necessary, and then there's the question for spread-offense QB, of transition to the pros.

 

The Bills think that Allen is a diamond in the rough, a potential #1 overall pick that they snagged at #7 due to his level of competition and (what they see as) correctable mechanical flaws in footwork. 

 

Time will tell if the Bills are right or if they're wrong (Allen wasn't my top choice) but it's becoming very tiresome to see the same-ol same-ol rehashed reheated and served up as news with a side order of hyperbole.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. 

 

He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback.  What?   He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence.   He can run, so that's some empirical evidence.   He had a 37 on the Wonderlic.   That's some empirical evidence.  His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward.  That's some empirical evidence.  

 

There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks:  If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL.   These guys haven't even been to training camp.  At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point.   None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust.   

 

Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work.   Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible.   Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing.  

In the last 5-10 years, under 60% is a good indicator of not being successful in the nfl.  Stafford was under 60% for his career but was 61.4% his last year in college.  In the SEC.

 

If Allen turns into a franchise qb, I will doubt nothing about this regime and start working on their statues.  If he is a bust, they deserve to be fired for ignoring huge red flags.  I don’t think there are any other options.  Genius or moron.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm kind of shocked a writer for Football Outsiders doesn't understand that the deep ball is only like 20% of why arm strength is important. The rest of it is the ability to execute plays in a timing offense to perfection. Take Peterman's last pass in the Jaguars game. He actually threw the ball right on time and arguably made the correct read. But it didn't matter because Jalen Ramsey was able to get to the ball. If Allen makes that exact throw, it wouldn't be an interception. At best Ramsey could have broken up the ball. The ability to throw the ball faster than a defender can catch up to it gives Allen a tremendous edge over other passers. Obviously that alone won't be enough. But anyone who sums up arm strength as "can throw the ball far" is way off the mark.

 

This is exactly correct.

[Direhard Fan]

I think he will be another Terry Bradshaw.  Just a little smarter.  Maybe a lot smarter.  I hope he doesn't read all the press stuff.

[Bangarang]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm kind of shocked a writer for Football Outsiders doesn't understand that the deep ball is only like 20% of why arm strength is important. The rest of it is the ability to execute plays in a timing offense to perfection. Take Peterman's last pass in the Jaguars game. He actually threw the ball right on time and arguably made the correct read. But it didn't matter because Jalen Ramsey was able to get to the ball. If Allen makes that exact throw, it wouldn't be an interception. At best Ramsey could have broken up the ball. The ability to throw the ball faster than a defender can catch up to it gives Allen a tremendous edge over other passers. Obviously that alone won't be enough. But anyone who sums up arm strength as "can throw the ball far" is way off the mark.

 

You’re assuming Allen puts the ball precisely where it needs to be in that situation. An inaccurate pass and it could very well be picked off just the same.

[TheElectricCompany]

48 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. 

 

He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback.  What?   He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence.   He can run, so that's some empirical evidence.   He had a 37 on the Wonderlic.   That's some empirical evidence.  His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward.  That's some empirical evidence.  

 

There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks:  If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL.   These guys haven't even been to training camp.  At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point.   None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust.   

 

Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work.   Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible.   Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing.  

 

I want Josh Allen to be a HOFer and win multiple championships here, however....

 

Best arms in the history of the league? So what. He has yet to prove consistent accuracy, especially on deep balls. Per CFB Film Room, he completed 12.5% of his 40+ yard throws in 2017. Every other top prospect had at least 30%+ completion. The stats on mid range and short range throws are similar, he is ranked quite poorly compared to his peers.  Athletic? Of course he is. I haven't seen a 1st round pick that I wouldn't consider an athlete. I don't think he will be able to move around like Baker or Lamar, and we're going to be waiting a long time to see him rip off big runs like Cam or Russel Wilson. Nice Wonderlic score, but it doesn't outweigh the reality that he was a sub-par college player. Would you rather have a player like Lamar who scored poorly on the Wonderlic, but was an incredible playmaker at the position, or a great test taker who was "just a guy" in college?  "Trending upward?" - of course he is, just like every other 1st round pick before him. 

 

It's has been well written that there are very few positive CFB statistics for Allen, and I find that a very fair and reasonable criticism of him. 

 

I really hope all these doubts are erased. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

The Analytics and new way to look at talent fan in me wants him to fail, because success will be the old school thinkers Mountain and well what about case. 

 

This isn't necessarily true. Analytics, like everything in statistics, are used to make projections based on probability. So take QBASE, an advanced analytics tool created by Football Outsiders to judge the probability that a college QB will succeed in the NFL.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

 

Allen had a negative QBASE which obviously isn't good. Since 1997, 27 QBs drafted in the top 100 had a negative QBASE and they all busted (McCown was probably the best of the group). So if Allen doesn't bust that will mean 1 out of every 28 QBs with a negative QBASE will succeed. That doesn't mean QBASE is useless. If you flip a coin 3 times in a row and get heads every time, you wouldn't say it's impossible to get tails. Most of these analytics tools are very new and they have relatively small sample sizes.They can be used to argue that Allen likely won't succeed, but no one is saying it's impossible.

[Cornette's Commentary]

4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

I want Josh Allen to be a HOFer and win multiple championships here, however....

 

Best arms in the history of the league? So what. He has yet to prove consistent accuracy, especially on deep balls. Per CFB Film Room, he completed 12.5% of his 40+ yard throws in 2017. Every other top prospect had at least 30%+ completion. The stats on mid range and short range throws are similar, he is ranked quite poorly compared to his peers.  Athletic? Of course he is. I haven't seen a 1st round pick that I wouldn't consider an athlete. I don't think he will be able to move around like Baker or Lamar, and we're going to be waiting a long time to see him rip off big runs like Cam or Russel Wilson. Nice Wonderlic score, but it doesn't outweigh the reality that he was a sub-par college player. Would you rather have a player like Lamar who scored poorly on the Wonderlic, but was an incredible playmaker at the position, or a great test taker who was "just a guy" in college?  "Trending upward?" - of course he is, just like every other 1st round pick before him. 

 

It's has been well written that there are very few positive CFB statistics for Allen, and I find that a very fair and reasonable criticism of him. 

 

I really hope all these doubts are erased. 

Here.  https://www.fanatics.com/Lamar_Jackson_Baltimore_Ravens_NFL_Pro_Line_Youth_Player_Jersey__Purple/t-92938044+o-2472+d-5355900+f-2989159+z-8-2014551241?_s=GPA_CA&sku=10940678

Enjoy.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

20 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Wtf man use an apple before that s***!

 

...Papa Johns would make ANYBODY sick.................

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

You’re assuming Allen puts the ball precisely where it needs to be in that situation. An inaccurate pass and it could very well be picked off just the same.

 

Yes that's why I specifically said "if Allen makes that exact throw," and that arm strength alone isn't enough. No one can say that arm strength doesn't matter or that it only matters on deep throws. The truth is it gives Allen an edge but it is still possible that his negatives outweigh it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

59 minutes ago, musichunch said:

Crap article. 

 

Meh.  It's accurate reporting on the Football Outsiders take.

 

But all we really need to know about how Football Outsiders sees things is encapsulated in this sentence:

" Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders said he'd rather have Tyrod Taylor. ".  Then turn to Pro Football Focus, which lists Taylor as the #12 NFL QB for 2017, above Marcus Mariota, Matt Stafford, and Dak Prescott, and far above Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr. 

 

Any one here prefer to have one of those 6 as our QB over Tyrod Taylor?  I know how I vote.

 

The funny thing about all this to me is that I'm 100% a stats geek and here I am critiquing stats geeks.  But as a stats geek, I know that stats tell you something - not always what you think they're telling you.  You need to look carefully at which ones are meaningful, and which ones are correlated to winning.  All these groups try to roll and tumble a bunch of different stuff to boil complicated factors down into a single number, which means they've become critically dependent on the weighting of different factors (in the case of Football Outsiders, I believe they over-weight low INT and underweight passing yards per game, or at least don't penalize falling below a certain threshold there).

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

3 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Here.  https://www.fanatics.com/Lamar_Jackson_Baltimore_Ravens_NFL_Pro_Line_Youth_Player_Jersey__Purple/t-92938044+o-2472+d-5355900+f-2989159+z-8-2014551241?_s=GPA_CA&sku=10940678

Enjoy.

Adult large, I'll PM you my address. 

At the least, Lamar will run for a few TDs. 

[GoBills808]

boooooooo

[Cornette's Commentary]

Just now, TheElectricCompany said:

Adult large, I'll PM you my address. 

At the least, Lamar will run for a few TDs. 

Do you need help registering with the Ravens message board as well?

[TheElectricCompany]

2 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Do you need help registering with the Ravens message board as well?

Nah. I like Lamar, but I never felt  the Bills were interested. 

He's a playmaker. I hope he does well in Baltimore. 

For better or worse, I felt it would be Darnold or Allen. 

 

[dickleyjones]

"zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback"

 

these sports people and their "scientific" methods...there is zero empirical evidence for many things in this universe that doesn't mean they don't exist or are not possible. i mean, no one has ever seen an electron but we build computers based on our theories about them that work...such shoddy reporting.

 

"analytics" is so often just bs.

Edited July 24, 2018 by dickleyjones

[blacklabel]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. 

 

He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback.  What?   He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence.   He can run, so that's some empirical evidence.   He had a 37 on the Wonderlic.   That's some empirical evidence.  His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward.  That's some empirical evidence.  

 

There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks:  If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL.   These guys haven't even been to training camp.  At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point.   None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust.   

 

Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work.   Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible.   Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing.  

 

Man, good stuff as usual, sir. The article in the OP feels like a hot take for the sake of a hot take.

 

I'll admit, I was weary about Allen. But out of all the QBs that came out this year, he's the one with the best set of natural skills. Anyone see that Sport Science show on him? Here's the link for those that haven't seen it, it provides some more empirical evidence. The dude has a lightning-fast release to go with the rocket attached to his right shoulder. 

 

Watching him at Wyoming I got the feeling that the kid was doing everything he possibly could to win games. If that meant he had to sacrifice sound mechanics/footwork or deviate from the play-call and improvise, then so be it, that's what he was going to do in order to win. And we know he wasn't surrounded by a whole lot of talent there.

 

What gives me hope is what Beane recently said about seeing him at the Senior Bowl. Beane had seen him live a couple of times at Wyoming and noted that his footwork wasn't great and that affected his accuracy. But then, when he saw him at the Senior Bowl, Beane saw improved footwork, which remained consistent throughout the practices and the game. That's a huge plus for Allen. It's difficult to retrain your body to do things a certain way that's different from what's already committed to muscle memory for all the years he'd been playing QB. To see that Allen was able to rearrange parts of his mechanics and not revert back to his previous methods is a positive sign. It shows that he has the ability to not only make corrections, but to make those corrections stick. If they can continue to build him up in such a way, I feel like he has a pretty good shot to be a quality starter. 

[Heitz]

By "it continues..." I thought the OP was referring to the SAME arguments against Allen that have been made for months.  Yeah, completion percentage, I get it.

 

Man, I can't wait for Training Camp to get here!

 

 

 

 

 

So that we can then scrutinize EVERY throw the kid makes...

 

[Just Joshin']

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

But all we really need to know about how Football Outsiders sees things is encapsulated in this sentence:

" Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders said he'd rather have Tyrod Taylor. ".  Then turn to Pro Football Focus, which lists Taylor as the #12 NFL QB for 2017, above Marcus Mariota, Matt Stafford, and Dak Prescott, and far above Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr. 

 

Any one here prefer to have one of those 6 as our QB over Tyrod Taylor?  I know how I vote.

 

 

 

That really sums up the quality of that analysis.  There is no universe where Tyrod is better than those 6. 

 

If he really believes that then he needs to hand in his PC.  If for clicks, it is a really bad take.

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

I want Josh Allen to be a HOFer and win multiple championships here, however....

 

Best arms in the history of the league? So what. He has yet to prove consistent accuracy, especially on deep balls. Per CFB Film Room, he completed 12.5% of his 40+ yard throws in 2017. Every other top prospect had at least 30%+ completion. The stats on mid range and short range throws are similar, he is ranked quite poorly compared to his peers.  Athletic? Of course he is. I haven't seen a 1st round pick that I wouldn't consider an athlete. I don't think he will be able to move around like Baker or Lamar, and we're going to be waiting a long time to see him rip off big runs like Cam or Russel Wilson. Nice Wonderlic score, but it doesn't outweigh the reality that he was a sub-par college player. Would you rather have a player like Lamar who scored poorly on the Wonderlic, but was an incredible playmaker at the position, or a great test taker who was "just a guy" in college?  "Trending upward?" - of course he is, just like every other 1st round pick before him. 

 

It's has been well written that there are very few positive CFB statistics for Allen, and I find that a very fair and reasonable criticism of him. 

 

I really hope all these doubts are erased. 

I'm not saying whether Allen make it or not.   What I'm saying is it isn't worth reading someone who's so imprecise with his words that his opinion becomes untrustworthy.  

 

He said there's NO empirical emphasis suggesting Allen can make it.   NO means none, zero.   Well, that's nonsense.   How's 6'5", 240 pounds?   That's empirical evidence.   How's a 4.75 40-yard dash?  That's empirical evidence.  How's a 37 on the Wonderlic?  That's empirical evidence.   How's the strongest arm in the class, and among the strongest in the league?  That's empirical evidence.   So Allen is bigger, stronger than all of the QBs in his draft class and has the strongest arm.   It's pure nonsense to say there's no evidence.   

 

One thing above all else is clear about McBeane - they do their homework.   They are NOT trading up like they did to take someone who doesn't have a shot, so for some bozo sitting at a keyboard, some clown who hasn't coached football for one day in his life, to write that stuff is truly not worth your time or mine.   

 

Maybe Allen makes it, maybe he doesn't.   It is not knowable at this time, and it's especially not known by some guy who crunches numbers and thinks he knows something.  

15 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Man, good stuff as usual, sir. The article in the OP feels like a hot take for the sake of a hot take.

 

I'll admit, I was weary about Allen. But out of all the QBs that came out this year, he's the one with the best set of natural skills. Anyone see that Sport Science show on him? Here's the link for those that haven't seen it, it provides some more empirical evidence. The dude has a lightning-fast release to go with the rocket attached to his right shoulder. 

 

Watching him at Wyoming I got the feeling that the kid was doing everything he possibly could to win games. If that meant he had to sacrifice sound mechanics/footwork or deviate from the play-call and improvise, then so be it, that's what he was going to do in order to win. And we know he wasn't surrounded by a whole lot of talent there.

 

What gives me hope is what Beane recently said about seeing him at the Senior Bowl. Beane had seen him live a couple of times at Wyoming and noted that his footwork wasn't great and that affected his accuracy. But then, when he saw him at the Senior Bowl, Beane saw improved footwork, which remained consistent throughout the practices and the game. That's a huge plus for Allen. It's difficult to retrain your body to do things a certain way that's different from what's already committed to muscle memory for all the years he'd been playing QB. To see that Allen was able to rearrange parts of his mechanics and not revert back to his previous methods is a positive sign. It shows that he has the ability to not only make corrections, but to make those corrections stick. If they can continue to build him up in such a way, I feel like he has a pretty good shot to be a quality starter. 

Yeah, that's part of it.   It's part of all that stuff Beane said recently about the due diligence they did.   They watched every play multiple times, they met with the guy multiple times, they saw him play multiple times.   They've sliced and diced Allen so many ways, it's mind boggling to the amateur.   

 

Does that mean Allen will be a star?   No, it doesn't mean that, and Beane would be quick to tell you that they could be wrong.   But to suggest that Allen hasn't shown ANYTHING that suggests he can be successful in the NFL is absurd.