jrober38 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, Figster said: It wouldn't surprise me if the list of college QB's that had a higher completion percentage and some of the best overall stats a man could ask for yet still failed to succeed in the NFL is bigger and much more impressive. Many QB's at the college level play in O systems that utilizes a high number of dump offs, bubble screens ect. making it more difficult to gauge the young signal callers potential at the pro level in my humble opinion. Josh Allen has all the tools it takes and then some IMO. This isn't about guys with a higher completion percentage. This is looking at guys whose college completion percentage was very poor, and history very clearly shows that these players don't go on to become quality NFL players. We're all hoping Josh Allen bucks the trend and becomes "the guy", but every stat and bit of data you can find say his chances of becoming a franchise QB are slim to none. Most 1st round QBs fail, so whoever we picked likely wouldn't have been successful. That's just reality. It's really hard to find a QB. 1
GunnerBill Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, PaattMaann said: Not commenting on Allen at all here, just pointing out there aren't the same number of college QBs operating "nfl style" offenses today compared to even 10 years ago. True but equally true is the line between traditional "NFL" and "pro-style" and traditional "College" and "spread" is increasingly blurry. Kyle Shanahan's offense has its roots in his dad's stretch zone concepts but he loves the bubble screen. What is his offense? Old school NFL precision routes, where the footwork is timed with the release point or is it a wide open college scheme where the focus is getting it out quick to dynamic, fast guys? It is a bit of both.
cd1 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: Go ahead and explain it away. That is the "stats is for losers!" way. If you want to look into more detailed analysis, such as the percentage of short throws, under pressure throws, play action opportunities, games against teams with winning records, etc. it's all out there, and it's ugly. I don't think I've seen a single performance based statistic that paints Allen in a very favorable manner, and that just sucks. THE one element unaccounted for in statistics is the "HUMAN" element. It is important, when considering statistics, to understand that there is a lot that does NOT fit under the bell jar. 1
TheElectricCompany Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: The problem is, for college football, there's far more variability in what types of offense colleges run and what quality of players they recruit. No one (as far as I know) has found a way to incorporate those variables into the equation. If you want some bathroom reading, the QBASE model is quite interesting. Their highest graded QBs are very impressive. What they discussed was that your college success rate is essentially your ceiling. No qualifying QB in our era has outperformed that college success rate. Edited July 25, 2018 by TheElectricCompany
Sky Diver Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, SoTier said: How is Josh Alllen a superior pro QB prospect to JP Losman or EJ Manuel, other than he doesn't go by his initials? All three had as their biggest pluses their big arms. All three were considered "projects" who would need work to become pro ready. All three had questions about their mechanics, including their accuracy. None of them demonstrated that they had the intellectual skills sets they needed to make them good NFL QBs such as being able to read defenses. I'll give the current Bills regime credit for being "different" from their predecessors when their actions/selections/results don't bear depressing resemblace to previous regimes. If you believe that the Wonderlic test, Allen is much more intelligent than EJ and JP.
PaattMaann Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: True but equally true is the line between traditional "NFL" and "pro-style" and traditional "College" and "spread" is increasingly blurry. Kyle Shanahan's offense has its roots in his dad's stretch zone concepts but he loves the bubble screen. What is his offense? Old school NFL precision routes, where the footwork is timed with the release point or is it a wide open college scheme where the focus is getting it out quick to dynamic, fast guys? It is a bit of both. I agree the league is trending in that direction of "blurred" offense..utilizing college and NFL schemes of today. No doubt. I think many OCs are still using traditional NFL offenses though. Sure hope our OC is going for the "blurr".
Sky Diver Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 Just now, TheElectricCompany said: If you want some bathroom reading, the QBASE model is quite interesting. Their highest graded QBs are very impressive. What they discussed was that your college success rate is essentially your ceiling. They have had some spectacular misses too, like Carson Wentz.
Stank_Nasty Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, SoTier said: ^^^ How is Tre White all that different from Antoine Winfield or Nate Clements or Stephon Gilmore? Actually, he was a replacement for Gilmore, the Pro Bowl DB the Bills let walk ... just like they let Winfield and Clements walk away. That's been the Bills personnel pattern over the last twenty years: drafting first round DBs (or RBs), using them for their rookie contracts, and then moving on. How is Josh Alllen a superior pro QB prospect to JP Losman or EJ Manuel, other than he doesn't go by his initials? All three had as their biggest pluses their big arms. All three were considered "projects" who would need work to become pro ready. All three had questions about their mechanics, including their accuracy. None of them demonstrated that they had the intellectual skills sets they needed to make them good NFL QBs such as being able to read defenses. I'll give the current Bills regime credit for being "different" from their predecessors when their actions/selections/results don't bear depressing resemblace to previous regimes. you're just so..... OFF, on all of this. first off. the bills traded back, got picks, and STILL got a lockdown corner. a corner that was directly responsible for sealing 2 wins last year. i'm sad for you that you cant see any of this. and as for allen. he was regarded as top 5-10 pick by the majority for over a year leading up to the draft. the same cant be said for the other 2 qb's you mentioned. but since you see similarities and you had your mind made up about him you claim its the same ole crap you saw for the last 20 years. and this staff isn't different? they just made the playoffs with a ton of roster turnover while cleaning up the cap from the prior crap show. literally all of that is different from the previous 17 years. dude you need to take the sh*t colored glass off and open your eyes. WOW. nothing about how this FO has started has been depressing. not even close. Edited July 25, 2018 by Stank_Nasty
C.Biscuit97 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, Sky Diver said: Tom Brady isn't a Bill either, but that doesn't stop people from making fun of him. Why is it off limits to poke fun at your man crush Rosen? There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Do you even read what you post? You were upset with people who are finding faults with Allen when he hasn’t played yet, but that hasn’t stopped you from doing the same thing with Rosen. Be consistent and stop holding a grudge against a guy for saying Bama doesn’t challenge its football players academically. And the Brady hate is out of jealousy and for the most part, not serious. We “hate” him but would love to have him. As much as it’s weird how he kisses his son.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, Figster said: It wouldn't surprise me if the list of college QB's that had a higher completion percentage and some of the best overall stats a man could ask for yet still failed to succeed in the NFL is bigger and much more impressive. Many QB's at the college level play in O systems that utilizes a high number of dump offs, bubble screens ect. making it more difficult to gauge the young signal callers potential at the pro level in my humble opinion. Josh Allen has all the tools it takes and then some IMO. I don't know if Josh Allen has all the tools it takes and then some. I think it was Badlands Meanie who said he watched some of Allen's film, and all he could conclude is that Allen's line was so bad and he was under so much pressure, he didn't see how anyone could assess stuff like Allen's ability to make progressions and throw to his 2nd or 3rd read.
Shaw66 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: To be fair, groups like PFF and Football Outsiders (as I understand it) do employ professional statisticians and statistics like DVOA and DYAR are their attempt to formulate a comprehensive multivariate analysis. And their stuff works reasonably well to assess what's going on in the NFL as far as individual players. That's their accountability - they're purveyors of fantasy football tools, and if their clients find them useful for fantasy football, they sell more subscriptions. The problem is, for college football, there's far more variability in what types of offense colleges run and what quality of players they recruit. No one (as far as I know) has found a way to incorporate those variables into the equation. I'm biased against PFF and toward Outsiders, because as I understand it, PFF's "data" is largely compiled film review, and I'm suspicious of amateurs, which I assume they are, evaluating film. As Kyle Williams said once, how can people evaluate my play if they don't know the play call, my assignment, what I was told to do this week as we were preparing for the game? Outsiders, as I understand, is driven by objective data - down and distance, result, etc. So I tend to think statistical analysis of PFF's "data" is less reliable than the statistical analysis the Outsiders do.
teef Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 37 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: so far as I can tell, sitting back and having a drink is your answer to just about everything. not knocking it, just observing. it's gotten me this far.
C.Biscuit97 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Sky Diver said: They have had some spectacular misses too, like Carson Wentz. I think Wentz is good but man, are people anointing after a season and a half. His backup won the SB. The Eagles were an awesome team. and nfl teams love big, tall guys with big arms like dudes love blondes with big “arms.” As a result, you overlook how dumb and annoying they may be and just talk yourself into their big “arms” and thinking they will change. But overwhelming, they never do and end up banging your friend. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 Just now, Shaw66 said: I'm biased against PFF and toward Outsiders, because as I understand it, PFF's "data" is largely compiled film review, and I'm suspicious of amateurs, which I assume they are, evaluating film. As Kyle Williams said once, how can people evaluate my play if they don't know the play call, my assignment, what I was told to do this week as we were preparing for the game? Outsiders, as I understand, is driven by objective data - down and distance, result, etc. So I tend to think statistical analysis of PFF's "data" is less reliable than the statistical analysis the Outsiders do. I don't like PFF myself and consider their line play analysis (OL and DL) to be particularly suspect. As I pointed out above, their 2017 QB ranking I think flies in the face of what NFL talent evaluators would say about the QB in question. 1
Shaw66 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know if Josh Allen has all the tools it takes and then some. I think it was Badlands Meanie who said he watched some of Allen's film, and all he could conclude is that Allen's line was so bad and he was under so much pressure, he didn't see how anyone could assess stuff like Allen's ability to make progressions and throw to his 2nd or 3rd read. It's clear that purely physically he has all the tour. Whether his mechanics, his judgment etc are good enough is an open question, like with every other rookie. What gives me confidence is that the Bills have evaluating those things and come to the conclusion that whatever it is about his game they DON'T like is susceptible to being fixed. Frankly, I put a lot of stock in Allen's work ethic, his attitude, and his brains.
Cornette's Commentary Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I think Wentz is good but man, are people anointing after a season and a half. His backup won the SB. The Eagles were an awesome team. and nfl teams love big, tall guys with big arms like dudes love blondes with big “arms.” As a result, you overlook how dumb and annoying they may be and just talk yourself into their big “arms” and thinking they will change. But overwhelming, they never do and end up banging your friend. Edited July 25, 2018 by Cornette's Commentary 1
Mat68 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 Until he proves it on field he will always have detractors. Time will tell. Basically, you have the analytic marvel with Mayfiled and the prototype Qb prospect in Allen. We shall she how this plays out. Right now he has said and done all the right things in Buffalo. Personally, I think and hope Allen becomes the starter in camp and he never looks back.
TheElectricCompany Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Sky Diver said: They have had some spectacular misses too, like Carson Wentz. Agreed, although Wentz's score wasn't that bad. +274, that was below average, not "no chance in hell".
Shaw66 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I think Wentz is good but man, are people anointing after a season and a half. His backup won the SB. The Eagles were an awesome team. and nfl teams love big, tall guys with big arms like dudes love blondes with big “arms.” As a result, you overlook how dumb and annoying they may be and just talk yourself into their big “arms” and thinking they will change. But overwhelming, they never do and end up banging your friend. But in this case, the guy is neither dumb nor annoying. In fact, if he's annoying at all, it's because he relentlessly is looking to get better. So he's annoying like Kirk Cousins.
jrober38 Posted July 25, 2018 Posted July 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, Sky Diver said: They have had some spectacular misses too, like Carson Wentz. The only meaningful part of QBASE is who had elite scores, and who had negative scores. There are too many hits and misses in between. With that said, players with a negative score (like Josh Allen) literally never go on to become franchise QBs in the NFL.
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