[Vague Title] It continues... Josh Allen...

[C.Biscuit97]

35 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Whaley was a dead man walking. He was part of the old regime who probably had minimal input in the final decisions.

 

Even though Beane was hired after the draft, I have no reason to question his decision making at this point.

 

Why don't we hold off on the crusade agaiinst Allen until he actually gets a chance to play?

Haha, that hasn’t stopped you on Josh Rosen, who isn’t even a Bill.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

If you look at adjusted completion percentage (takes out drops, throwaways) , it will still lead you to the same reality.

He completes less passes than any other top prospect. 

And what kind of offense did they run.  What kind of passes did they throw?  And so on.

 

Whether he completed less passes than QB X  is immaterial.  The number of variables is so large that it makes one particular stat meaningless.  The abuse and misunderstanding of statistics is rampant.

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Haha, that hasn’t stopped you on Josh Rosen, who isn’t even a Bill.

 

Tom Brady isn't a Bill either, but that doesn't stop people from making fun of him. Why is it off limits to poke fun at your man crush Rosen?

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And what kind of offense did they run.  What kind of passes did they throw?  And so on.

 

Whether he completed less passes than QB X  is immaterial.  The number of variables is so large that it makes one particular stat meaningless.  The abuse and misunderstanding of statistics is rampant.

 

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Edited July 25, 2018 by Sky Diver

[cd1]

14 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Have you read what Beane said? He and his staff turned on the film and studied it for a long time. They didn't see a mediocre QB.  

 

Of course not. They saw a franchise QB. Would you expect them to say otherwise? I'm sure they could explain away all of his flaws. 

 

The BIG difference is - unlike you, me or the media - McDermott and Beane pretty much bet their proverbial farms on the pick. 

 

That is how much weight was on their evaluation of the kid. 

 

For now, I am going to "trust their process" and Friday I am going to camp to have a peek for myself. ? 

Edited July 25, 2018 by cd1

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That’s fair too.  So far, minus Dawkins, I’ve hated their offensive moves and completely trust them on defense.  I think that’s what you should expect when a defensive coach is essentially running the franchise.

 

 

Yeah, there's some evidence to support this.   I think people are too tough on him for Mills and the guard (sorry, senior moment).   But you have to wonder how he misfired on his offensive coordinator so badly that he had to make a move after one year.  

 

What I like about McDermott is that he thinks about things, makes a decision, but then is perfectly willing to evaluate the decision and change if it didn't work.  So as bad as the Dennison choice was, McD at least wasn't afraid to fix it.   He did the same thing with the Peterman start.   

 

The essence of being a professional is continuing to work at your craft, learning and getting better.  McD is a relatively young professional, and he's still learning, still accumulating knowledge.  It's clear he works really hard at it.   So far, I'm pleased with what I see, but he certainly isn't yet a master at his craft.  

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Tom Brady isn't a Bill either, but that doesn't stop people from making fun of him. Why is it off limits to poke fun at your man crush Rosen?

 

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

I have to have a fairly good understanding of basic stats for my job, have to look at data and review submitted articles all the time.  And I know if I had to figure out a way to statistically evaluate different college QBs I'd have to go to a professional statistician who would need to formulate a comprehensive multivariate analysis to cone up with any reasonable comparative data.

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, teef said:

i'm just going to sit back, have a drink, and see how this all plays out.  that's why i'm going to live a lot longer than most of you.

so far as I can tell, sitting back and having a drink is your answer to just about everything.

 

not knocking it, just observing.  

[Sky Diver]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I have to have a fairly good understanding of basic stats for my job, have to look at data and review submitted articles all the time.  And I know if I had to figure out a way to statistically evaluate different college QBs I'd have to go to a professional statistician who would need to formulate a comprehensive multivariate analysis to cone up with any reasonable comparative data.

 

“Analytics” is a buzzword. Football is a game of tactics and strategies and any good coach is using data and looking at trends even if he doesn’t call it analytics. Football is too complex a game to rely on analytics alone. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, there's some evidence to support this.   I think people are too tough on him for Mills and the guard (sorry, senior moment).   But you have to wonder how he misfired on his offensive coordinator so badly that he had to make a move after one year.  

 

What I like about McDermott is that he thinks about things, makes a decision, but then is perfectly willing to evaluate the decision and change if it didn't work.  So as bad as the Dennison choice was, McD at least wasn't afraid to fix it.   He did the same thing with the Peterman start.   

 

The essence of being a professional is continuing to work at your craft, learning and getting better.  McD is a relatively young professional, and he's still learning, still accumulating knowledge.  It's clear he works really hard at it.   So far, I'm pleased with what I see, but he certainly isn't yet a master at his craft.  

 

McDermott thinking about things and working hard is already two qualities his predecessor lacked.  

[TheElectricCompany]

27 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And what kind of offense did they run.  What kind of passes did they throw?  And so on.

 

Whether he completed less passes than QB X  is immaterial.  The number of variables is so large that it makes one particular stat meaningless.  The abuse and misunderstanding of statistics is rampant.

 

Go ahead and explain it away. That is the "stats is for losers!" way. 

If you want to look into more detailed analysis, such as the percentage of short throws, under pressure throws, play action opportunities, games against teams with winning records, etc. it's all out there, and it's ugly. 

I don't think I've seen a single performance based statistic that paints Allen in a very favorable manner, and that just sucks. 

Edited July 25, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Sometimes this forum just sucks.

All negativity all the time.

 

 

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Go ahead and explain it away. That is the "stats is for losers!" way. 

If you want to look into more detailed analysis, such as the percentage of short throws, another pressure throws, play action opportunities, games against teams with winning records, etc. it's all out there, and it's ugly. 

I don't think I've seen a single performance based statistic that paints Allen in a very favorable manner, and that just sucks. 

 

Statistics isn't for "losers". It's a tool that has to applied with knowledge, common sense and an underlying understanding of what you are studying..

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Go ahead and explain it away. That is the "stats is for losers!" way. 

If you want to look into more detailed analysis, such as the percentage of short throws, under pressure throws, play action opportunities, games against teams with winning records, etc. it's all out there, and it's ugly. 

I don't think I've seen a single performance based statistic that paints Allen in a very favorable manner, and that just sucks. 

You obviously don't understand statistics

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I have to have a fairly good understanding of basic stats for my job, have to look at data and review submitted articles all the time.  And I know if I had to figure out a way to statistically evaluate different college QBs I'd have to go to a professional statistician who would need to formulate a comprehensive multivariate analysis to cone up with any reasonable comparative data.

 

To be fair, groups like PFF and Football Outsiders (as I understand it) do employ professional statisticians and statistics like DVOA and DYAR are their attempt to formulate a comprehensive multivariate analysis.

 

And their stuff works reasonably well to assess what's going on in the NFL as far as individual players.  That's their accountability - they're purveyors of fantasy football tools, and if their clients find them useful for fantasy football, they sell more subscriptions.

 

The problem is, for college football, there's far more variability in what types of offense colleges run and what quality of players they recruit.    No one (as far as I know) has found a way to incorporate those variables into the equation.

 

 

[Figster]

11 hours ago, Buffalo86 said:

Apologies for the length of this, but someone did an analysis of QBs who completed 58.5% or less of their passes during their last full college season.  Below is the list of all QBs drafted 2002-2014 who met this criteria.  I hope the Bills hit it big with Allen, but this list is pretty scary: 

 

Year of Draft	QB	College	Final Year Completion Percentage	Draft	Result
2014	Logan Thomas	Virginia Tech	56.5%	R4, P120- Arizona	Went 1-for-9 with Arizona in 2014 before being released at the end of the 2015 preseason after just 1 season
2013	BJ Daniels	South Florida	56.9%	R7, P237- San Francisco	Never made the active roster with the 49ers. Switched to WR in 2015
2012	Ryan Lindley	San Diego State	53%	R6, P185- Arizona	Finished career with 3 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Threw 0 touchdowns and 7 interceptions his rookie season. Currently in the CFL with the Ottawa RedBlacks
2011	Jake Locker	Washington	55.4%	R1, P8- Tennessee	Retired after suffering numerous injuries. Finished with just 27 touchdown passes in 4 seasons, and never had a completion percentage above 61% in any season. Titans go 9-14 under Locker
2011	Nathan Enderle	Idaho	56.7%	R5, P160- Chicago	Never threw a pass in the NFL. Cut after 1 season with the Bears
2010	Jonathan Crompton	Tennessee	58.3%	R5, P168- San Diego	Never made an active roster at the NFL level, and was cut after the 2010 preseason by the Chargers
2010	Rusty Smith	Florida Atlantic	57.3%	R6, P176- Tennessee	Finished his career with 0 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. Lone start in his career was a 20-0 shutout to the Texans
2008	Chad Henne	Michigan	58.3%	R2, P57- Miami	Finished 4-year career with the Dolphins with 31 touchdowns and 37 interceptions. Currently is the backup on the Jaguars
2008	Kevin O’Connell	San Diego State	58.5%	R3, P94- New England	Threw a grand total of 6 passes during his NFL career for 23 yards
2008	Matt Flynn	LSU	56.3%	R7, P209- Green Bay	One of the few on this list to work out, but this is speaking strictly as a value pick in the 7th round for a backup QB. Highlight of career- throwing for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns in the 2011 season finale against Detroit
2007	Isaiah Stanback	Washington	53.4%	R4, P103- Dallas	Converted to WR. Never threw a pass in the NFL
2006	Reggie McNeal	Texas A&M	53.2%	R6, P193- Cincinnati	Converted to WR. Never threw a pass in the NFL
2006	DJ Shockley	Georgia	55.8%	R7, P223- Atlanta	Never threw an NFL pass. Only passes in professional football came as a member of the Omaha Nighthawks in 2010 of the UFL, where he went 2-for-5 with an interception
2004	Luke McCown	Louisiana Tech	56.9%	R4, P106- Cleveland	Played 1 season with the Browns before being traded in 2005. Threw 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, failing to win a game in any of his 4 starts
2004	Craig Krenzel	Ohio State	55%	R5, P148- Chicago	Started 5 games for the Bears, throwing 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Cut by the Bears in 2005
2004	Jim Sorgi	Wisconsin	56.5%	R6, P193- Indianapolis	Never started an NFL game (in fairness to Sorgi, Peyton Manning was the QB ahead of him on the depth chart)
2004	Cody Pickett	Washington	56.6%	R7, P217- San Francisco	Started 2 games for the 49ers in 2 seasons, throwing 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Traded to the Texans in 2006
2004	Casey Bramlet	Wyoming	56.7%	R7, P218- Cincinnati	Never played a down for the Bengals, and was released in 2005
2003	Kyle Boller	California	53.4%	R1, P19- Baltimore	Want to preface this by saying this was Boller’s highest completion percentage in college.It was the first year he threw above 50%. No idea what the Ravens were thinking here, even with the benefit of hindsight. He winds up completing just 56.9% of his passes with the Ravens, and finished with 45 touchdowns on 44 interceptions. He started double-digit games for the Ravens just once over 6 seasons
2003	Rex Grossman	Florida	57.1%	R1, P22- Chicago	He made a Super Bowl as a starting QB… but not because of his play. He finished his 6 seasons in Chicago with 33 TDs on just 35 interceptions, and only started 8 games in a season once in 6 years with the Bears
2003	Dave Ragone	Louisville	53.7%	R3, P88- Houston	Spent 3 years with the Texans, and never threw a touchdown pass. Played in just 2 games, where he lost both of them and completed just 50% of his passes for 135 yards
2003	Seneca Wallace	Iowa State	55.1%	R4, P110- Seattle	This pick actually worked out for Seattle. Not a good starter, but a serviceable backup. Played 7 seasons with the Seahawks, and when called into action, threw 25 touchdowns on 14 interceptions. Never started more than 8 games in a season for any team
2003	Brian St. Pierre	Boston College	58.2%	R5, P163- Pittsburgh	Threw just 1 pass for the Steelers in 2 seasons. Got cut at the end of the 2005 preseason
2003	Brooks Bollinger	Wisconsin	53.5%	R6, P200- NY Jets	Played 3 seasons for the Jets, where he went just 2-7 and threw a grand total of 7 touchdown passes in 12 games over 9 starts. He was named the UFL MVP in 2009, though, so at least he’s got that going for him
2003	Gibran Hamdan	Indiana	51.9%	R7, P232- Washington	First player of Pakistani descent to ever play in the NFL. Finished his career with just 2 passes thrown and 7 yards, playing just 1 season with Washington
2003	Ken Dorsey	Miami (FL)	56.5%	R7, P241- San Francisco	Went just 2-8 with the 49ers and 2-11 over his career. Played 3 seasons with the 49ers, throwing 8 touchdowns on 11 interceptions, and finished his career with 8 TDs on 18 INTs. Had a career completion percentage of just 52.5%
2002	Patrick Ramsey	Tulane	57.1%	R1, P32- Washington	Completed just 55.7% of his passes with Washington, only starting 8+ games in a season once over 4 years. Started just 24 games, despite being a first round pick
2002	David Garrard	ECU	56.6%	R4, P108- Jacksonville	Hands down, the best player on this list. Solid starting QB for the Jaguars before his release after the 2011 preseason. Threw 89 touchdowns for the Jaguars while starting 76 games, and made the Pro Bowl in 2009 (don’t know how he made the Pro Bowl that year, but it makes up for 2007, when he didn’t make it despite throwing just 3 interceptions, and none before the start of December)
2002	Randy Fasani	Stanford	51.5%	R5, P137- Carolina	Played 4 games for the Panthers and started 1. In that start, he went 5-for-18 with no touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 46 yards, and a 0.0 passer rating. Not surprisingly, he did not play for the Panthers after 2002
2002	Kurt Kittner	Illinois	55.3%	R5, P158- Atlanta	Played 2 seasons for the Falcons, where he completed 38.6% of his passes, threw 6 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 32.5. For comparison, if I entered an NFL game and threw nothing but incomplete passes, my passer rating would be higher than that
2002	Steve Bellisari	Ohio State	53%	R6, P205- St. Louis Rams	Converted to safety for some reason. Never played a game with the Rams
2002	Ronald Curry	North Carolina	46.3%	R7, P235- Oakland	Why you’d draft a QB that had a career completion percentage of 49.6% and threw just 8 touchdowns in 10 games in his senior year on a 46.3% completion percentage, I don’t know. He got converted to WR straight away

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/

 

As for what happened after 2014:  2015 yielded Trevor Siemian.  2016 brought Christian Hackenberg & Connor Cook.  2017 was the coming of C.J. Beathard.  Maybe none of this means anything, but frankly, I don't like my QB running with that type of crowd

It wouldn't surprise me if the list of college QB's that had a higher completion percentage and some of the best overall stats a man could ask for yet still failed to succeed in the NFL is bigger and much more impressive.

 

Many QB's at the college level play in O systems that utilizes a high number of dump offs, bubble screens ect. making it more difficult to gauge the young signal callers potential at the pro level in my humble opinion.

 

Josh Allen has all the tools it takes and then some IMO.

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You obviously don't understand statistics

Sure, let's go with that. Glad we cleared that up. 

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, Figster said:

It wouldn't surprise me if the list of college QB's that had a higher completion percentage and some of the best overall stats a man could ask for yet still failed to succeed in the NFL is bigger and much more impressive.

 

Many QB's at the college level play in O systems that utilizes a high number of dump offs, bubble screens ect. making it more difficult to gauge the young signal callers potential at the pro level in my humble opinion.

 

Josh Allen has all the tools it takes and then some IMO.

 

 

 

Especially college offenses in the past 10 years. This is also why I suspect there is a lower number of college QBs in general with less than 55% completion percentage. College QBs are playing in gimmicky offenses designed for high completion percentages. 

 

Not commenting on Allen at all here, just pointing out there aren't the same number of college QBs operating "nfl style" offenses today compared to even 10 years ago. 

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, Figster said:

It wouldn't surprise me if the list of college QB's that had a higher completion percentage and some of the best overall stats a man could ask for yet still failed to succeed in the NFL is bigger and much more impressive.

 

Many QB's at the college level play in O systems that utilizes a high number of dump offs, bubble screens ect. making it more difficult to gauge the young signal callers potential at the pro level in my humble opinion.

 

Josh Allen has all the tools it takes and then some IMO.

 

 

 

So I guess we are supposed to believe that you can determine whether or not a player will succeed or fail based on one metric? Wow.

[SoTier]

34 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

We have one data point for the new regime, Tre White. That's looking like a pretty good pick.

 

Who is this "better prospect" you speak of?

 

^^^

 

26 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Bringing up 20 years worth of failures in an argument against the new staff that has already NAILED their 2017 pick and then broke the drought with massive roster turnover is really REALLY foolish IMO. 

 

And make sure not to lump how all the fans “feel” about this draft in with your thoughts. It may have that “feel” to you. But I’m absolutely fine with how things shook out, as are plenty of others with even heads on their shoulders. I see no reason not to give the new staff the benefit of the doubt until they’vd proven they don’t deserve it. 

 

So far so good. 

 

How is Tre White all that different from Antoine Winfield or Nate Clements or Stephon Gilmore?  Actually, he was a replacement for Gilmore, the Pro Bowl DB the Bills let walk ... just like they let Winfield and Clements walk away.   That's been the Bills personnel pattern over the last twenty years: drafting first round DBs (or RBs), using them for their rookie contracts, and then moving on.

 

How is Josh Alllen a superior pro QB prospect to JP Losman or EJ Manuel, other than he doesn't go by his initials?   All three had as their biggest pluses their big arms.  All three were considered "projects" who would need work to become pro ready.   All three had questions about their mechanics, including their accuracy.  None of them demonstrated that they had the intellectual skills sets they needed to make them good NFL QBs such as being able to read defenses.

 

I'll give the current Bills regime credit for being "different" from their predecessors when their actions/selections/results don't bear depressing resemblace to previous regimes.

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

McDermott thinking about things and working hard is already two qualities his predecessor lacked.  

And personal discipline.  

 

And focus.

 

But, but, but ... he isn't as much fun to listen to!