Scorp83 Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 Hour 1 from Howard & Jeremy this morning on the Football Outsiders write up...(which I've posted the link below). https://app.radio.com/s2OuDBPrGO Man... this guy scares me. This write up.... wow. From the Write Up: "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect, Allen was abysmal in 2017 en route to not even making an all-Mountain West team. We don't want to say there's absolutely no chance he'll ever be good – he's got a deep ball, he's got some ability to make plays on the run and under pressure – but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback. And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense. ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they're right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it." [BN] Blitz newsletter: Get your popcorn ready for this Josh Allen take – The Buffalo Newshttps://buffalonews.com/2018/07/24/josh-allen-take-football-outsiders-bills-almanac-scouts/ 2
Elite Poster Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 Let it play out. Analytics are reliable, but not 100%. They can't take into account fixing footwork, better coaching, etc. I'm skeptical on him but I'm not throwing him into the trash before camp even begins. 8
GunnerBill Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 But can I look now? And is he there? These are questions that demand answers. 2
Fadingpain Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 This is the sort of thing I have been saying since the moment we drafted him. He is a perfect test case for old school "I know what I see" football people vs. new age data driven analysis. The former loves his size, arm strength, and potential; the latter suggests he is highly unlikely to become even a serviceable NFL QB. There is tremendous optimism for his success at this forum, but it is not rooted in persuasive data. It is simply a function of many good Bills fans being beyond desperate to finally have a real QB. It's been a while. 12 4
RobH063 Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 Mike Trout struck out hundreds of times growing up playing baseball. He made hundreds of errors too. I knew he would never be any good. 4 1 1
billieve420 Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 I don't have confidence with the talent surrounding Allen to begin with and I think it will be detrimental to his development if he sees the field this year. I am hoping the Bills redshirt him this year and bring him along slowly while they attempt to rebuild this offense. 3 1
buffalostu2 Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: This is the sort of thing I have been saying since the moment we drafted him. He is a perfect test case for old school "I know what I see" football people vs. new age data driven analysis. The former loves his size, arm strength, and potential; the latter suggests he is highly unlikely to become even a serviceable NFL QB. There is tremendous optimism for his success at this forum, but it is not rooted in persuasive data. It is simply a function of many good Bills fans being beyond desperate to finally have a real QB. It's been a while. Doesn't Wentz pass this same test?
Cornette's Commentary Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 17 minutes ago, Scorp83 said: Hour 1 from Howard & Jeremy this morning on the Football Outsiders write up...(which I've posted the link below). https://app.radio.com/s2OuDBPrGO Man... this guy scares me. This write up.... wow. From the Write Up: "A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect, Allen was abysmal in 2017 en route to not even making an all-Mountain West team. We don't want to say there's absolutely no chance he'll ever be good – he's got a deep ball, he's got some ability to make plays on the run and under pressure – but there is zero empirical evidence to support him becoming a reasonable NFL starting quarterback. And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense. ... Allen is the battleground that old scouts are going to die on, whether they're right about it or, as all evidence suggests, wrong about it." [BN] Blitz newsletter: Get your popcorn ready for this Josh Allen take – The Buffalo Newshttps://buffalonews.com/2018/07/24/josh-allen-take-football-outsiders-bills-almanac-scouts/ Go join the Ravens message board and never come back.
uticaclub Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 This again? All the pre draft and post draft was all about how there very little evidence he will be good based on prior performance. Can't we just billieve he will be good until we boo him off the field 2
GunnerBill Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said: Doesn't Wentz pass this same test? I am not one who thinks stats are the way to assess a Quarterback - but Wentz satisfied many more of the analytical data points that some believe suggest franchise QB than Allen does. 1
HansLanda Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 This talk may be premature even one calendar year from today. 1
RoyBatty is alive Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said: Doesn't Wentz pass this same test? Wentz averaged 64.1% completion, I think we all know how Allen did We shall see soon enough if he can be "fixed" or not. I did find this line interesting, "And if you thought the excuses for his supporting cast were bad in Wyoming, wait till you see this Bills offense", yes probably true but how is it a "fair" test of Allen if our offense will be as dreadful as he implies.
Shaw66 Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback. What? He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence. He can run, so that's some empirical evidence. He had a 37 on the Wonderlic. That's some empirical evidence. His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward. That's some empirical evidence. There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks: If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL. These guys haven't even been to training camp. At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point. None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust. Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work. Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible. Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing. 15 5
Cornette's Commentary Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 Just now, Shaw66 said: Everyone's entitled to his opinion, but you'd like the opinion to make sense. He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback. What? He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence. He can run, so that's some empirical evidence. He had a 37 on the Wonderlic. That's some empirical evidence. His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward. That's some empirical evidence. There is a very simple truth about college quarterbacks: If you aren't Andrew Luck, there is no reliable predictor of success in the NFL. These guys haven't even been to training camp. At this point there is no meaningful difference in the probabilities that Rosen, Allen, Mayfield and Darnold will be effective NFL starters at some point. None of them is a sure-fire starter; none of them is a sure-fire bust. Declaring any of these guys as certifiable busts now is pure guess work. Sure, it can be your opinion, but that just means you're opinion isn't supported by sufficient evidence to make it credible. Each of these guys has too many positive measureables, each of these guys has been vetted and found to be a quality prospect by multiple pro teams, to make a certifiable-bust opinion make anything but guessing. Well said, Shaw! Bottom line, Scorp83 wanted Lamar Jackson, he got Josh Allen, and now he's mad about it. 3 1 1
hondo in seattle Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 When the draft was looming - and then especially in the aftermath of the draft - I read a lot about Allen and watched some film. Opinions are strongly divided. Some smart football think really highly of him. Some don't. I don't know if the division is entirely an 'analytics' versus 'old-school' thing but there's certainly a difference of opinion. I don't which camp is right. And I won't know for a while. For now, I'm content that the Bills went for the QB they believed had the highest upside. At this point, all a fan can do is wait and see. New opinions on the matter just don't faze me much any more. I really don't care what Football Outsiders thinks. 3
GunnerBill Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: He says "there's zero empirical evidence" to support him becoming a reasonable starting quarterback. What? He has one of the best arms in the history of the league, so that's some empirical evidence. He can run, so that's some empirical evidence. He had a 37 on the Wonderlic. That's some empirical evidence. His trajectory as a developing QB is trending upward. That's some empirical evidence. Think the 4th of those is opinion. His 2016 tape is better (not a lot, but better) than his 2017 tape. 2
Gugny Posted July 24, 2018 Posted July 24, 2018 Has anyone here tried smoking pastrami or Canadian bacon before? 3
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