STL-Bills Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Hey guys, Been lurking a while, decided to make an account and join in on the fun. Bills fan from St. Louis (as my UN points to). Got to see the game at Arrowhead last year, and will be heading to Indy this year for hopefully another Bills victory! Just for fun, I want to discuss the Bills draft strategy going into the 2019 draft. The way I see it, there are two scenarios that could play out. 1. The Bills surprise most, and have a solid season in 2018 (8-8 or better). 2. The Bills finish with a poor record (seems to be what most fans/pundits believe will be the case), and secure a top 5/10 draft pick. I want to know what you guys think the team will/should do in both of the above scenarios. IMO, if the Bills end up with a top 5/10 pick, they should almost certainly look to move down. With the premium placed on the QB position, having a high pick is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of a team in need of a QB (as we saw this year with the Bills, Cards, Jets and with other teams in the past). This is assuming, obviously, that there are a few QB's who rise to the top of this class that other teams believe are worth such a move. If we can trade down to late 1st, and gain a few additional 2019 picks or a 2020 1st, that's absolutely what we should do. I think we draft well enough to find impact players in the late 1st (Tre White, small sample size I know) that a move like this is a no brainer. Not to mention, most view this upcoming draft as a relatively deep class. If the Bills finish well enough to draft somewhere between picks 15-32, then I think they stand pat and take BPA. Only if someone really overpays to move up to this position (a QB falls etc) would I consider trading down. The Bills still have quite a few holes on their roster, and this is a spot that can they can select a player who fills an immediate need. Again, this is all subject to what kind of offers they might receive for the pick, but I think drafting a player here would be the smart move. Let me know what you guys think they should do, looking forward to hearing your opinions. Go Bills! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 sorry...i have some down time in my schedule. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Offensive line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soda Popinski Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Top 10 pick=Olinemen/WR/CB/trade back I'd probably go either LT or CB those are premium positions. top 20=BPA we need players at a bunch of positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Soda Popinski said: Top 10 pick=Olinemen/WR/CB/trade back I'd probably go either LT or CB those are premium positions. top 20=BPA we need players at a bunch of positions BPA should be the pick regardless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soda Popinski Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Just now, Bangarang said: BPA should be the pick regardless. Depends, if the best player is a guard, i'm probably not going to use a top 10 pick on a guard, but that's just me. If it's a QB, i'm not taking that either. or if it's a LB, probably skipping on that. When you make a pick in the top 10 that's a guy you plan on having for 10 years minimum, and IMO the only guys I want on my roster that I'm going to be willing to pay at the end of their rookie deals that kind of money are QB/WR/LT/CB and RB(but I would not draft a RB in the top 10). I'm not taking a safety, or an OLB, or a NT in the top 10. But again that's just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 (edited) To answer the OP, I agree that trading down would be a good move. But you have to find a partner AND have to agree on terms, which can be a challenge. A lot of teams want to move down. I think, obviously, next year should be very offense heavy. We need bodies on the OL, in the WR group, and McCoy is getting old so we need to find a legitimate starting RB at some point for when he retires or is kicked to the curb. We'll see how the defense does. I believe they should be a solid unit. Probably need more linebackers and more corners. We'll also have a ton of cap space, so will probably be active in FA. I hope we spend the money smartly. Edited July 24, 2018 by MJS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I can’t even make any guesses because hopefully we’ll be big players in free agency next year with all that extra cap space. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Primary needs are OLine and WR, and I like the idea of trading back, but it’s impossible to say what the best strategy is at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfball323 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Depends on what we spent our FA dough on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL-Bills Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 Obviously our moves in FA would influence the direction we take in the draft, my question was posed in a more general sense. Do we take the best player we can get (that fits a need and fits the draft position) within the top 10, or do we try to turn that pick into more picks and trust our team to make smart decisions in the later part of the 1st round. If we're mid to late 1st round, I think we take the BPA at WR, OL, DE, CB, TE, RB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I would say go BPA and rank the positions like this as currently constructed: QB: INC won't know until Allen gets a few seasons to see RB: B- Shady is going to age or leave at some point, with him your have a great player but you need to insulate with youth which we don't have WR: D- After Benjamin it is just soo many question marks and teams these days use 3 WR's formations regularly. OL: C But like I said so hard to know until Groy, Teller, Bodine play and we see what we have. LT hopefully is set with Dawkins DL: C+ The Bills really could use a guy that is a true disrupter off the edge. Even if Hughes, Lawson, & Murphy do well they could use a blue chip edge rusher to really solidify the edge. The middle is fine and I am high on Harrison Phillips, but we need another guy drafted there to help for depth. LB: B I buy the Milano & Edmunds combo hard and this grade could elevate if both play to the potential we've seen/said to have in each player. Just need a guy long term on the other OLB spot but still like this a lot. CB/SAF: A Need depth and at some point another true starter but they have a lot of great pieces to work with. So I would focus WR/OL/DL next draft pretty heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Trading down is not really a strategy, its just an option. No team ever goes into the draft with their whole strategy depending on something they do not control. You can't trade down without a partner and you can't guarantee you'll have one. By the same token, no team ever goes into the draft without considering the possibilities of trading down and fully exploring that option. I am totally for trading down if the right deal is there to be made. I am totally against trading down if its a bad deal. Knowing the difference is why our GM gets paid the big bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Mickey said: Trading down is not really a strategy, its just an option. No team ever goes into the draft with their whole strategy depending on something they do not control. You can't trade down without a partner and you can't guarantee you'll have one. By the same token, no team ever goes into the draft without considering the possibilities of trading down and fully exploring that option. I am totally for trading down if the right deal is there to be made. I am totally against trading down if its a bad deal. Knowing the difference is why our GM gets paid the big bucks. I think the OP's point is that if there are a couple-few highly regarded qbs (there always seem to be) and the Bills are in a position to draft one, they almost certainly *will* be able to find a partner. I was thinking about this other day myself, and I think it's a good thread. For argument's sake: trading down from, say, 3, and picking up, say, a second and a third plus a mid-first round pick (16-20 range) would allow the Bills to get a top-rated interior lineman, a new elite RB (rd 2 is historically good for such a player), and a TE in round 3. They can sign a WR and solid LB in FA with all of their cap space too. The organization has a long term plan that stretches beyond this year, so it's probably a good idea for us to think along these lines too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL-Bills Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 27 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I think the OP's point is that if there are a couple-few highly regarded qbs (there always seem to be) and the Bills are in a position to draft one, they almost certainly *will* be able to find a partner. I was thinking about this other day myself, and I think it's a good thread. For argument's sake: trading down from, say, 3, and picking up, say, a second and a third plus a mid-first round pick (16-20 range) would allow the Bills to get a top-rated interior lineman, a new elite RB (rd 2 is historically good for such a player), and a TE in round 3. They can sign a WR and solid LB in FA with all of their cap space too. The organization has a long term plan that stretches beyond this year, so it's probably a good idea for us to think along these lines too. How are people having such a hard time understanding this?! :D Im not saying Beane should make a stupid trade, why would anyone every insinuate that that's something they'd like to see the GM do? Isn't it obvious that you only make a move if you consider it a good move?? IF we're in a top 10 position, IF there is a QB available, and IF a team is willing to do a deal, is that something you'd like to see the Bills do? Or would you rather take a player? Thanks for not making me spell out all of the factors that play into a move like this, I thought more people would understand the point I was trying to make. In addition, I completely agree with your assessment. We can get a top rated lineman in the late 1st, and address the RB position with the additional 2, as well as another position of need (WR, TE, OL, DL, CB) with our own 2 or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunken Pygmy Goat Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 (edited) Never too early for a "next year's draft" thread. Matter of fact, you're late... I know a lot can change between now and next spring, but the 2019 QB class looks pretty bad, IMO. It could be 2013 bad, or worse. Regardless of the premium on QBs, I don't see more than 3 going in the first round, and I wouldn't be shocked if only 1 or 2 go in round 1. If the Bills finish with a top 10 pick, I highly doubt teams will be very eager to trade up for one. Regardless of where the Bills end up drafting, it should be BPA. There may be some holes still, but that should be the approach in the first couple of rounds. Maybe reach slightly for an OL if it becomes a dire need, depending on their draft slot, but there aren't that many holes. Edited July 25, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Vader Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Welcome to The Wall, STL-Bills. Right now I can only see the Bills going with best player available in the 2019 draft. I would think they would go offense, because we do need help on the line at wide receiver and running back. This of course depends on what we do in free agency, considering how much money the Bills will have to spend, but I know you primarily want to look at the draft in general. One thing I will say about next year's draft is that I would not be surprised if the Bills went with defense in the first round. Defensive Line is by far the top position in next year's draft. Both at Tackle & End, there are a lot of prospects that will be worthy of being taken in the first round, and enough depth at the position to last throughout the first round. I could easily see McBeane having a good look at one of those D-Line players. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Depends entirely on how much Allen plays and what he looks like. We may be in the QB market again as soon as next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL-Bills Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: Depends entirely on how much Allen plays and what he looks like. We may be in the QB market again as soon as next year. What kind of drugs are you on, and where can the rest of us get some? Just joking with you. But, you don't seriously think the team would give up on Josh after one season, regardless of how he plays, do you? Edited July 24, 2018 by STL-Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 2 hours ago, teef said: sorry...i have some down time in my schedule. ??????? can you read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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