Prisco: Bills to go 3-13 (start 0-8)

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, KRT88 said:

well if they start 0-8, we know one thing, Allen will definitely get plenty of time on the field. 

 

we even get scores too, so I guess there's no need to watch.

 

 

 

 

why do people write this useless crap?  

 

And if he wrote that the Bills would go 8-0 in the first half and finish 13-3, you'd be slurping it up like it was your grandma's spaghetti sauce, and it sure wouldn't be "useless". 

 

The Bills don't have an NFL caliber OL or WR corps.  They not only don't have a starting QB, they don't even have a QB who was significantly better than the other two in minicamp.  When a veteran QB who's been around as long as McCarren can't easily out perform a green rookie and a second-year QB who demonstrated as little potential as Peterman demonstrated last season, it's time to start worrying that the emperor's new clothes may be an illusion.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I could care less about such predictions, positive or negative.  But I would just ask a couple questions about why so many, including a number of TBD participants, keep thinking a playoff team from last season will for some reason go into the toilet this year:

 

1.  Offense:  predictions are that the offense will be terrible.  But what changes have really been made?

     a.  Taylor for McCarron:  I presume McCarron starts.  And is he really a dramatic drop off at the position?  TT ran well, but at times was a liability in the passing game.  McCarron should get the ball out quicker and do better on the passing end.  So kind of a wash here.

    b.  O line:  Groy I presume starts at C, and he did well when he filled in for Wood a couple seasons ago.  RT is still an issue, but Dawkins looked very good at LT, and the G you have the same guys at RG as last year.  Really it's filling in for Richie, so that is a loss to be sure.

    c.  WR:  Same cast as last year except for Thompson, and you figure one of the rookies gets that shot.  So is it a stellar group?  No.  Any worse than last year?  No.

    d.  Changes OC's to a guy in Daboll with experience in two big time college and pro programs.

  

    So overall the offense wasn't great last year, probably won't be great this year, but so much worse it accounts for such a dramatic fall off in results?  No.

 

2.  Defense

     a.  D line:  Better at DT with Star and Harrison.  Better at DE with Murphey and hopefully with a slimmed down Lawson. 

     b.  LB:  Drafted a potential stud in Edmunds.  MIlano comes in with more experience.  And the kid from Jacksonville St may be that hybrid kind of guy McD likes.  So worse than last year?  Doesn't look that way.

    c.  DBs:  Strength of the team, and you add a solid vet in Davis at CB, some potentially good rookies, veteran at the slot, and the safeties still look really good.

  

    So overall the defense looks very solid, certainly as good as last year and likely better.  So is this the reason we see such a fall off in record?  No.

 

3.  Coaching:  McD is in his second year, and that experience should help him with game day situations.  Frazier provides continuity, and Daboll replaces a guy that didn't appear to be that great at OC.  So is this the reason we go from 9 wins to 3?  Don't see that either.

 

So what exactly explains it, because I can't find the glaring reason why a playoff team should drop six games down from last year to this.

 

 

 

oldmanfan, 

 

I appreciate your analysis, and generally agree with you. I bolded the portion about the offense for a couple of reasons. First of all, a lot of what you posted is relying on presumptions and assumtions; wishful thinking. You may be right in the end, but at this point, who knows.

 

The assumption that McCarron will get the ball out faster may be by default, because Tyrod often extended plays with his legs before throwing, but both players have very similar career sack %s (AJ 8.9<<<much smaller sample size, TT 9.1). As AJ gains PT, perhaps he improves there...

 

On the line, I don't think it's a given that Groy starts at C. I think the coaches may view his versatility along the line as being more valuable, and may choose to keep him as the swing. Bodine has several years experience as a starter (although not very good years...), and IIRC hasn't missed a game in his 4 years. That's very much up in the air.

 

With Dawkins, there's a lot of promise there at LT, but he did have some rather poor performances sprinkled into his nice rookie season. And playing next to Richie probably helped him considerably. Ducasse moving to the left may have an effect there, especially earlier in the year (although he did have a very good finish to the year at RG). And of course there's the possibility of a sophomore slump. He'll be learning his 2nd scheme in 2 years, so there may be some early struggles from him this season. 

 

WR, I agree with you there, although Thompson did provide some speed and a but of a "spectacular" catch element to the team. They'll need someone to step up into that role.

 

For me though, I don't attribute the pundits' poor record predictions on the talent so much as I do the change in scheme, new QB(s) and other positions, and (more importantly) what looks like a very tough first half schedule. That, too, is a presumption and subject to change, but based on that idea, coupled with what looks to be some early season growing pains, I understand their reasoning for the predictions, especially the slow start predictions.

 

I don't think this team is "2010, 0-8 start" bad, but the predictions may not be all that far off. There may be a lot of close losses that contribute to a poor record, but not necessarily a "bad" team. The Bills likely aren't going to do a lot of dictating on offense, and will need to run well and utilize play-action, and execute and capitalize on the opportunities they have to be competitive offensively. 

 

Not to be a downer, it's just that there's a lot of uncertainty right now to say one way or another how they'll perform. I'm typically an optimistic guy, but realistically, there are reasons to be weary.

 

I certainly hope you're right, though.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

oldmanfan, 

 

I appreciate your analysis, and generally agree with you. I bolded the portion about the offense for a couple of reasons. First of all, a lot of what you posted is relying on presumptions and assumtions; wishful thinking. You may be right in the end, but at this point, who knows.

 

The assumption that McCarron will get the ball out faster may be by default, because Tyrod often extended plays with his legs before throwing, but both players have very similar career sack %s (AJ 8.9<<<much smaller sample size, TT 9.1). As AJ gains PT, perhaps he improves there...

 

On the line, I don't think it's a given that Groy starts at C. I think the coaches may view his versatility along the line as being more valuable, and may choose to keep him as the swing. Bodine has several years experience as a starter (although not very good years...), and IIRC hasn't missed a game in his 4 years. That's very much up in the air.

 

With Dawkins, there's a lot of promise there at LT, but he did have some rather poor performances sprinkled into his nice rookie season. And playing next to Richie probably helped him considerably. Ducasse moving to the left may have an effect there, especially earlier in the year (although he did have a very good finish to the year at RG). And of course there's the possibility of a sophomore slump. He'll be learning his 2nd scheme in 2 years, so there may be some early struggles from him this season. 

 

WR, I agree with you there, although Thompson did provide some speed and a but of a "spectacular" catch element to the team. They'll need someone to step up into that role.

 

For me though, I don't attribute the pundits' poor record predictions on the talent so much as I do the change in scheme, new QB(s) and other positions, and (more importantly) what looks like a very tough first half schedule. That, too, is a presumption and subject to change, but based on that idea, coupled with what looks to be some early season growing pains, I understand their reasoning for the predictions, especially the slow start predictions.

 

I don't think this team is "2010, 0-8 start" bad, but the predictions may not be all that far off. There may be a lot of close losses that contribute to a poor record, but not necessarily a "bad" team. The Bills likely aren't going to do a lot of dictating on offense, and will need to run well and utilize play-action, and execute and capitalize on the opportunities they have to be competitive offensively. 

 

Not to be a downer, it's just that there's a lot of uncertainty right now to say one way or another how they'll perform. I'm typically an optimistic guy, but realistically, there are reasons to be weary.

 

I certainly hope you're right, though.

It's crrtainly based on presumptions; that's all we have right now.  As for the schedule, things are never what they seem.  Guys get hurt, teams progress and regress, etc, etc.

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

Oh no...bawaaah....we gonna suck! We no longer have our 6th Rd. Teantive career backup to lead us to 29 th in offense and 31st in passing...we just don't have a QB who can do better! We don't have any wrs like we did last year....oh wait..we actually have a healthy kb before Halloween...and we have Zay going into his 2nd year when he didn't make the probowl last year.....and we lost a 35 yr. Old headcase and an average center! Omg we are gonna suck!!!!

 

Edited July 23, 2018 by billsredneck1

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

31 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

And if he wrote that the Bills would go 8-0 in the first half and finish 13-3, you'd be slurping it up like it was your grandma's spaghetti sauce, and it sure wouldn't be "useless". 

 

The Bills don't have an NFL caliber OL or WR corps.  They not only don't have a starting QB, they don't even have a QB who was significantly better than the other two in minicamp.  When a veteran QB who's been around as long as McCarren can't easily out perform a green rookie and a second-year QB who demonstrated as little potential as Peterman demonstrated last season, it's time to start worrying that the emperor's new clothes may be an illusion.

..paging Tom Brookshire...another CBS Sports gem.....Pete needs to walk his wife and know that nobody cares....

[fansince88]

19-0 unless they prove me wrong every year. Cuz Im more fan then realist 

[corta765]

10 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

Oh no...bawaaah....we gonna suck! We no longer have our 6th Rd. Teantive career backup to lead us to 29 th in offense and 31st in passing...we just don't have a QB who can do better! We don't have any wrs like we did last year....oh wait..we actually have a healthy kb before Halloween...and we have Zay going into his 2nd year when he didn't make the probowl last year.....and we lost a 35 yr. Old headcase and an average center! Omg we are gonna suck!!!!

 

 

It's funny how people can't take criticism and respond without picking facts or throwing out absolute arguments without giving any reason to the other side. If you want a powder puff commentary on the Bills then you might as well leave the internet period.

[LaDexter]

Prisco when the Niners took Alex Smith at #1 overall

 

"Love the pick"

[PromoTheRobot]

8 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

It's funny how people can't take criticism and respond without picking facts or throwing out absolute arguments without giving any reason to the other side. If you want a powder puff commentary on the Bills then you might as well leave the internet period.

 

Well I decided to check Mr. Prisco's predictions since 2012. I initially said he never gives the Bills more than 4 wins. That was incorrect. However his predictions are often 3 wins too low. So if he says we are 3-13, place a bet we finish 6-10.

 

2012 - Prisco pick: 7-9     Actual record 6-10

2013 - Prisco pick: 3-13     Actual record 6-10

2014 - Prisco pick: 6-10     Actual record 9-7

2015 - Prisco pick: 5-11     Actual record 8-8

2016 - Prisco pick: 7-9     Actual record 7-9

2017 - Prisco pick: 6-10     Actual record 9-7 + wild card playoff berth

 

 

[BillsFan17]

6 hours ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Will you be watching every University of Houston game closely?

Depends, if the media tells me to watch someone else that's where I will align my allegiance.

[Cornette's Commentary]

7 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

Depends, if the media tells me to watch someone else that's where I will align my allegiance.

Will you be watching Ohio State games for Nick Bosa?  Or Northern Illinois games for Sutton Smith?

Don't forget Clemson has four 1st, 2nd round picks on their starting DL.

[Lfod]

I'm sorry but I can't take low predictions seriously. If the team can be productive on offense next season the team will go undefeated.

 

I dream of an offence that is tactical, eating up clock and sustaining drives for touchdowns. I probably won't get what I want but it can't be as bad as last season. 

 

Simply put the team lacked offensive production but the defense was dominating in games. So if the offense trends up somehow we are in the money.

Edited July 23, 2018 by Lfod

[Doc Brown]

If I see Prisco in public I'm going to give him a peace of my mind.  I'll tell you that much.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

No one predicted the Giants to only win 3 games last year, and they appeared to have way more talent than Buffalo, so anything is possible.

 

On the other hand could mean there's much more to team togetherness than imagined and the Giants with McAdoo were a mess.

[Radar]

I think 4-5 wins but will be happy if it's more.

[aristocrat]

58 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

No one predicted the Giants to only win 3 games last year, and they appeared to have way more talent than Buffalo, so anything is possible.

 

On the other hand could mean there's much more to team togetherness than imagined and the Giants with McAdoo were a mess.

 

They also had an insane amount of injuries. Plus a bad coach. 

[billsredneck1]

3 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

It's funny how people can't take criticism and respond without picking facts or throwing out absolute arguments without giving any reason to the other side. If you want a powder puff commentary on the Bills then you might as well leave the internet period.

Not sure what  your angle is here, but we were all in on the tank last year....people think because we are moving on from a couple aging vets from last year we automatically suck. I'm not going to buy I into that. I don't think mcfo is either....yo

[rodneykm]

No way they start with 8 straight losses. 4 wins and 4 losses seems best case though. 3 and 5 likely.

[Scorp83]

9 hours ago, KRT88 said:

well if they start 0-8, we know one thing, Allen will definitely get plenty of time on the field. 

 

we even get scores too, so I guess there's no need to watch.

 

 

 

 

why do people write this useless crap?  

When you draft the guy everyone pegged as the bust (which I hope is wrong)... this is you get. Tyrod regardless how people felt about him... made us respectable 

[mead107]

He is going to crap his pants when we finish 19-0 Baby