I’m going to lose my ****. Taking questions ...

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

wipe our behinds with it

 

 

Hey, we're not talking loonies here!

[row_33]

13 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Hey, we're not talking loonies here!

 

we just learned not to fling it a decade ago

 

 

[Juror#8]

I appreciate folks taking the time to respond. I just wanted an unbiased opinion from people who don’t know me as to what they would do.

 

Plus there are some smart folks on here who know more about markets and all that **** than I do. I realize that from previous threads. 

 

So thank you again. 

 

My first instincts to not panic sell were correct. 

 

Well I hope they end up being correct.

 

Everyone here has been right and I appreciate the market wisdom. It’s all just theoretical losses until I hit the “sell” button. 

 

 

On 6/22/2018 at 2:09 PM, peace out said:

How long do you intend to hold this investment before you sell? 

 

I have some positions that I swing trade and some that I have long interest in. I do profit take in my swing positions and don’t worry about taxes. 

Edited June 24, 2018 by Juror#8

[Juror#8]

4 hours ago, DC Tom said:

 

Of course.  But I've also done this before - bought in to panic.  9/11, airline stocks; banks in 2008.  They dropped because no one wanted to be seen holding them, but there was no way at least some of them wouldn't recover.  Tripled my money on both.  So I've got previous experience to remind me that it's an opportunity, not a catastrophe.

 

Plus...I have an expert system that looks for mispriced option spreads and straddles.  Under certain conditions, arbitrage opportunities pop up.  This is one of those situations.  (I'd share, but they're fleeting - gone in 5 minutes sort of thing.)

 

Plus, I once lost ten grand in 90 seconds - realized loss, trading.  That kind-of puts a different perspective on tolerating investment losses.  I mean, I'm not happy with it...but I make a distinction between trading and investing (to the degree of having different accounts for each), and don't much worry about panic selling in investments.

 

Outside of my 401k, I wasn’t in the market in 08 ot 01 so I didn’t see the carnage.

 

I always remind myself that there is the possibility to lose money and if I can’t deal with that then I shouldn’t have a brokerage account however that admonition is of little consolation or solace. 

 

I’d lose my **** if I tabled 10 stacks in 90 seconds.

 

Like there would be a legitimate misunderstanding with my waiter when I went out to eat that night. Y’all mother!@#$ers would read about how Jason !@#$ed somebody up over an undercooked steak. 

 

I would have to deflect that frustration in some unproductive place. 

 

I bull **** you not. 

 

46 minutes ago, Nanker said:

$64k is chicken ****. 

 

For many it is. But that’s almost half my little brokerage account so I’d like to not lose it. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Juror#8

[Juror#8]

On 6/22/2018 at 2:49 PM, TPS said:

There are a lot of good responses so far, so I’ll give you a slightly contrarian take with the caveat that trying to time the market is dicey even for professionals. 

First, my hemming and hawing, then a suggestion. I’m on record here for predicting a recession before the next presidential election. In my view, as you correctly state, the market is currently being whip-sawed by the trade issues and other temporary factors. There is certainly a lot of anxiety right now, and I won’t be surprised if something happens to trigger a big sell off. On the other economic hand, there will be a good move up when this is resolved. I think it’s safe to assume if there is a big drop over trade, Trump will acquiesce. The midterm elections are too important for him moving forward. What I’m trying to say is, so far all of the factors affecting the market in the near term are temporary and trying to time it with a big move isn’t wise. 

The suggestion. 

If anything, and this is what I’ve done recently, get Some of your portfolio liquid (maybe highly volatile stocks), to create a more conservative position AND give you the liquidity to jump back in when there is a big move down—to take advantage as Tom said. 

 

Given my prediction, at some point next year I will get very defensive. The key will be to watch the Fed’s reaction to economic growth, especially wage gains. 

 

To end, this site has been helpful in the past, especially with all of our discussion on 2008. By summer, I was 80% cash, which helped me avoid the Lehman-related crash in a big way. 

Good luck!

 

Good post. 

 

I did average down (and up) on a couple of positions but I had to throw some new money into my account because I was fully leveraged. That sucked because I added liquidity to an unpredictable market situation. 

 

If you see Micron and Sq up a couple of dollars in the next week or so you know I done good. 

 

I will be pulling that new money, including any profits, back out once this settles out. 

Edited June 24, 2018 by Juror#8

[DC Tom]

12 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

 

I’d lose my **** if I tabled 10 stacks in 90 seconds.

 

 

I'd made 15k in the previous half-hour, so I could afford to be philosophical.

 

I was trading a stock that opened with ridiculously inefficient pricing - volume was far higher than the exchange could handle (before program trading), and I was somehow getting buys at $14 and sells at $18 filled simultaneously.  I knew that situation wouldn't last much past 10am, so I was taking advantage.  I established a position, and the phone rang...

 

...and I very stupidly got up to answer it.  By the time I get back to my desk, the market's rationalized, and the position I'd just set was down ten grand.  Yes, I took it out on the guy on the phone ("You just cost me ten thousand dollars, and you can't even pronounce my !@#$ing name!!!")  But honestly, I was more laughing than anything, because how !@#$ing dumb was I to get up and answer the phone with that much money on the line?  

 

Simultaneously the smartest and dumbest trading I've ever done, all inside half an hour.

[Buffalo_Gal]

For purely selfish reasons, I hope I can pick up some deals. I  have expected a crash for a good number of years now (I was a bit slow the last crash and missed out on a few amazing deals, but also nabbed a few tremendous deals).  The market has been higher than a kite for far too long.  I've got a lotta cash, and I'm not afraid to use it... for the right price and the right stocks.
 

[KD in CA]

Did I miss a big market crash or something? 

 

If you lost $64k than presumably you have a portfolio sizeable enough to handle some fluctuation.

[row_33]

16 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Did I miss a big market crash or something? 

 

If you lost $64k than presumably you have a portfolio sizeable enough to handle some fluctuation.

 

you're damn right....

 

 

[Juror#8]

48 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Did I miss a big market crash or something? 

 

If you lost $64k than presumably you have a portfolio sizeable enough to handle some fluctuation.

 

It can I guess. It’s not like I need the money to pay my mortgage this month.

 

And I wouldn’t say “sizeable.” A couple years salary maybe. But that loss represents a cool third of my portfolio. I said “almost half” earlier. Not quite that much. But a third hurts. 

 

I bought some positions late high thinking I was on the cusp of some !@#$ing revolution - sogo, bili, huya as it flew to nearly $50. And then I bought a few thousand shares in some cases. 

 

Those particularly hurt because in some cases they just took a **** down 20+% in two days. 

 

I chased. Shame on me. 

 

And then everything else is red too. 

 

It adds up and it hurts. 

 

I’ll still eat tonight. But I was considering an exit strategy to mitigate losses if this were to keep going and since I’m somewhat heavy in chinese stocks (bzun, jd, baba, momo), and if there were something about these global circumstances (read: Us- China relations) that wouldn’t allow for my portfolio to recover. 

 

Rough ****. 

 

And then there are the other permutations that one runs through ...

 

”If I were to take half out, eat the loss, but throw that capital into ____ while its low then I could make up the loss if it takes a while for these Chinese stocks to crawl back because of the trade war.”

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Juror#8

[Juror#8]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

For purely selfish reasons, I hope I can pick up some deals. I  have expected a crash for a good number of years now (I was a bit slow the last crash and missed out on a few amazing deals, but also nabbed a few tremendous deals).  The market has been higher than a kite for far too long.  I've got a lotta cash, and I'm not afraid to use it... for the right price and the right stocks.
 

 

But can you afford a:

 

7 series bmw (isn’t that what Skooby drove??)

helicopter

penis reduction surgery 

sex change operation

 

I was intentionally superficial in the delivery. Pm me and we can get down to brass tacks. 

 

Have a good weekend. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Juror#8

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Juror#8 said:

 

But can you afford a:

 

7 series bmw

helicopter

penis reduction surgery 

sex change operation

 

I was intentionally superficial in the delivery. Pm me and we can get down to brass tacks. 

 

Have a good weekend. 

yes
yes
ummm no gots the part so no need
not wanted

?

[Juror#8]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

yes
yes
ummm no gots the part so no need
not wanted

?

 

Well damn. On that note, I’m signing out. 

[GG]

36 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

 

It can I guess. It’s not like I need the money to pay my mortgage this month.

 

And I wouldn’t say “sizeable.” A couple years salary maybe. But that loss represents a cool third of my portfolio. I said “almost half” earlier. Not quite that much. But a third hurts. 

 

I bought some positions late high thinking I was on the cusp of some !@#$ing revolution - sogo, bili, huya as it flew to nearly $50. And then I bought a few thousand shares in some cases. 

 

Those particularly hurt because in some cases they just took a **** down 20+% in two days. 

 

I chased. Shame on me. 

 

And then everything else is red too. 

 

It adds up and it hurts. 

 

I’ll still eat tonight. But I was considering an exit strategy to mitigate losses if this were to keep going and since I’m somewhat heavy in chinese stocks (bzun, jd, baba, momo), and if there were something about these global circumstances (read: Us- China relations) that wouldn’t allow for my portfolio to recover. 

 

Rough ****. 

 

And then there are the other permutations that one runs through ...

 

”If I were to take half out, eat the loss, but throw that capital into ____ while its low then I could make up the loss if it takes a while for these Chinese stocks to crawl back because of the trade war.”

 

 

Don't exit, but boy do you need to diversify or learn a lot more about investing and trading.   You shouldn't expose 1/3 of your portfolio to these swings.  If you want to play, set aside a much smaller amount to dabble with until you're much more comfortable.  You're still young and will keep building and that play portion of your portfolio will also grow.

[row_33]

with a major alleged fraud (i don't think any convictions occured) in Canada i saw stock investments of $10,000 skyrocket to millions in market value and then in one week plummet to about $50,000.

 

 

 

still a good return on $10,000, but people weren't thrilled with that....

 

[RocCityRoller]

What were your net gains vs. Jan 2017?

 

Lets say they were +100k since 1/2017. You took a 65k paper loss, still up 35k. Never emotionally buy or sell.

 

I took a stock to and through bankruptcy a few years ago. Lot's of shady context. I held my 'shares' until the court ruled in favor of the company. 5 figure real loss.

You win some you loose some. You lost paper value in a day, you sit tight, reevaluate your investments and know the next uptick is forthcoming.

 

It's a long game.

[keepthefaith]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

Given my prediction, at some point next year I will get very defensive. The key will be to watch the Fed’s reaction to economic growth, especially wage gains. 

 

 

 

This is where I'm headed.  Don't have time or the know-how to make a bunch of short-term trades.  Have done well on several in the past few years but so could have a blind squirrel in the recent market.  We will be due for some correction or at the very least malaise as this expansion becomes more likely to end each and every month as we go forward.  With single digit years for me until retirement or semi-retirement, I'm not willing to risk weathering another big correction or negative economic event.  Would rather be guilty of getting out a bit early and have the opportunity to move back in on the back side. 

 

Trump has definitely helped to extend the life of this good economic stretch IMO with tax cuts and a business friendly message but I don't think there are any more economic levers to be pulled and we're almost in the longest expansion ever right now.

 

To the OP, if you're not truly skilled and devoted and willing to take the risk in trying to beat the market, you might be best to invest in an S&P index fund.  Not many can honestly claim that over time they do better themselves or even with professional help.  That and there are good investments outside of the stock market.  I'm heavier now in real estate and that will serve me quite well in the future, even in a down economy. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by keepthefaith

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

7 hours ago, Juror#8 said:

For the sake of argument, let’s just say a person has lost $64, 212 in liquid cash in the market since yesterday at about 10:30 in the morning (not to mention the impact on his 401k etc.). That person would like to know: 

 

1. How is this market condition not Trump’s fault? What is he protecting (please read that not as a loaded question)?

 

2. To the people who know the global economic impact of trade and tariffs, etc., is all this posturing worth it from a big-picture domestic economic well-being  “for the good of the nation” standpoint? 

 

3. In the meanest, most scathing way you can (name-calling is ok) please convince this person that they’d be an idiot to cut their losses and panic sell and walk away while they’re still just barely up on the year (talking within now just hundreds of dollars). 

 

This may read like a political attack or a political question but it’s not. I just want to know as apolitically as you can your thoughts more economically than anything. 

 

$64,980

 

Thanks bros. 

 

 

Juror # 8...

 

I'm a simple beet farmer, so I'm confused as to how Juror #7 lost $64,980 in "liquid cash". 

 

Did someone find his stash of Mason jars? 

 

 

 

 

[Juror#8]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Don't exit, but boy do you need to diversify or learn a lot more about investing and trading.   You shouldn't expose 1/3 of your portfolio to these swings.  If you want to play, set aside a much smaller amount to dabble with until you're much more comfortable.  You're still young and will keep building and that play portion of your portfolio will also grow.

 

You’re not kidding. I also need to learn more about investing. Everything I know I learned through reading zacks, Motley Fool, and yahoo stock ticker articles.

 

True story. 

 

I’m also a little bit through “The Intelligent Investor.”

 

I fancied myself a stock wunderkind because I was making some coin without knowing **** about the market outside of opening up an etrade account with 5 thousand dollars to play with. 

 

I found (was told about) Shopify at $67 a share. I was in on Netflix at $90 and Shake Shack at $30 something last year and the Trade Desk in the 40s. 

 

I was buying stuff that I used because I knew the business. I consider it “pragmatic investing.” I use Netflix and I eat outside at the Shack Shak in Tyson’s at least once a week (if you like Chick Fil A’s chicken sandwich then try Shake Shack’s ...) so it made sense to have ownership in companies that I liked and used. 

 

It was working so I thought that I had the formula figured out. 

 

So there is a little diversity in my portfolio. I sold many of those over the last year (Netflix waaaay too early) but I still have Shopify and Shake Shack. 

 

Along with a shitload of Chinese tech stocks. 

 

The Chinese stocks feels like hidden treasure. All those damn people in a protectionist country waiting to be advertised and sold to. So I went all in. 

 

Now I have every !@#$ing trendy Chinese stock because I thought I was outsmarting the market. 

 

Ha

 

!@#$ing 

 

Ha. 

 

The joke, for right now, is on me. 

 

But I may be singing a prettier tune on Monday so stay tuned. 

 

23 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Juror # 8...

 

I'm a simple beet farmer, so I'm confused as to how Juror #7 lost $64,980 in "liquid cash". 

 

Did someone find his stash of Mason jars? 

 

 

 

 

 

Im using “liquid cash” to say that was money that was in an account that I invested instead of people who borrow money to invest, etc. 

 

And I was wrong because I haven’t actually lost anything. Just theoretical losses right now. But it stings like it’s not there. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Juror#8

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

2 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

 

You’re not kidding. I also need to learn more about investing. Everything I know I learned through reading zacks, Motley Fool, and yahoo stock ticket articles.

 

True story. 

 

I’m also a little bit through the intelligent investor. 

 

I fancied myself a stock wunderkind because I was making some coin without knowing **** about the market outside of opening up an etrade account with 5 thousand dollars to play with. 

 

I found (was told about) Shopify at $67 a share. I was in on Netflix at $90 and Shake Shack at $30 something last year and the Trade Desk in the 40s. I put a **** ton of money into Roku at their ipo and banked there selling late last year in the low 50s. 

 

I was buying stuff that I used because I knew the business. I consider it “pragmatic investing.” I use Roku and Netflix and I eat outside at the Shack Shak in Tyson’s at least once a week (if you like Chick Fil A’s chicken sandwich then try Shake Shack’s ...) so I made sense to have ownership in a company that I liked and used. 

 

So there is a little diversity in my portfolio. I sold many of those over the last year (Netflix waaaay too early) but I still have Shopify and Shake Shack. 

 

Along with a shitload of Chinese tech stocks. 

 

The Chinese stocks feels like hidden treasure. All those damn people in a protectionist country waiting to be advertised and sold to. So I went all in. 

 

Now I have every !@#$ing trendy Chinese stock because I thought I was outsmarting the market. 

 

Ha

 

!@#$ing 

 

Ha. 

 

 

 

 

 

Im using “liquid cash” to say that was money that was in an account that I invested instead of people who borrow money to invest, etc. 

 

And I was wrong because I haven’t actually lost anything. Just theoretical losses right now. But it stings like it’s not there. 

You have some sack son! 

 

The equities market ebbs and flows with emotion, and that's the problem at times.  In that regard, you're feeling exactly the way many other people feel. 

 

I'm primarily interested in dividend paying stocks in a brokerage account, don't deviate much from that and try to remove the emotion from the equation.  I've gotten better at that as I've gotten older and realize that I'm no smarter when I have a good run and not all that much dumber when i don't.   I'm not particularly creative when it comes to chasing hot money stocks or ideas, respect people who do but it just isn't me. 

 

On the other hand, I think it's important that we know who we are...who we really are when it comes to risk, time horizon and expectations.  There is no shame imo when an individual of any age decides to push themselves away from the table, though mathematically speaking odds of success improve over the long haul in the equities market. 

 

In addition, with increased life expectancy comes the need to be honest with our needs.  I'm planning to be around until 85ish, plan to have a bit of fun until o can't any longer, and want legacy money for my children if possible.

 

An interesting book on this subject is "Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth" by Nick Murray. Spoiler alert....I don't recall any mention of buying the stock of any companies building cell towers in the Mongolian Sea.

 

Have a great weekend, and with your recent change in fortune is it too early to suggest buying margarine, powdered milk and keystone beer?