I’m going to lose my ****. Taking questions ...

[Juror#8]

For the sake of argument, let’s just say a person has lost $64, 212 in liquid cash in the market since yesterday at about 10:30 in the morning (not to mention the impact on his 401k etc.). That person would like to know: 

 

1. How is this market condition not Trump’s fault? What is he protecting (please read that not as a loaded question)?

 

2. To the people who know the global economic impact of trade and tariffs, etc., is all this posturing worth it from a big-picture domestic economic well-being  “for the good of the nation” standpoint? 

 

3. In the meanest, most scathing way you can (name-calling is ok) please convince this person that they’d be an idiot to cut their losses and panic sell and walk away while they’re still just barely up on the year (talking within now just hundreds of dollars). 

 

This may read like a political attack or a political question but it’s not. I just want to know as apolitically as you can your thoughts more economically than anything. 

 

$64,980

 

Thanks bros. 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Juror#8

[DC Tom]

4 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

For the sake of argument, let’s just say a person has lost $64, 212 in liquid cash in the market since yesterday at about 10:30 in the morning (not to mention the impact on his 401k etc.). That person would like to know: 

 

1. How is this market condition not Trump’s fault? What is he protecting (please read that not as a loaded question)?

 

2. To the people who know the global economic impact of trade and tariffs, etc., is all this posturing worth it from a big-picture domestic economic well-being  “for the good of the nation” standpoint? 

 

3. In the meanest, most scathing way you can (name-calling is ok) please convince this person that they’d be an idiot to cut their losses and panic sell and walk away while they’re still just barely up on the year (talking within now just hundreds of dollars). 

 

$64,980

 

Thanks bros. 

 

 

 

3) You're an idiot to cut your losses and panic sell.  It's an investment, not a trade.  Trade wars don't last forever, and some companies (like Netflix) should still be resistant to trade wars, which means the sell-off is emotionally driven, not rationally driven.

 

Bottom line: sometimes people are forced to do stupid things because they're answerable to bosses who make them do so.  Invest in IBM and it goes down, and bosses ask "What's wrong with IBM."  Invest in Ali Baba and it goes down, bosses ask "What's wrong with you?"  Bottom line: this is a buying opportunity.

 

I won't answer 1 and 2, as I don't consider them relevant to the issue.

[KevinRome]

The market goes up, the market goes down. If you hadn’t sold your assets it would just be a paper loss. Why did you sell yesterday?

[Juror#8]

10 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

3) You're an idiot to cut your losses and panic sell.  It's an investment, not a trade.  Trade wars don't last forever, and some companies (like Netflix) should still be resistant to trade wars, which means the sell-off is emotionally driven, not rationally driven.

 

Bottom line: sometimes people are forced to do stupid things because they're answerable to bosses who make them do so.  Invest in IBM and it goes down, and bosses ask "What's wrong with IBM."  Invest in Ali Baba and it goes down, bosses ask "What's wrong with you?"  Bottom line: this is a buying opportunity.

 

I won't answer 1 and 2, as I don't consider them relevant to the issue.

 

Thanks. But you don’t look at your account and **** yourself? 

 

Because I did. 

 

In seriousness, I get it. It’s panic and anxiety. 

9 minutes ago, KevinRome said:

The market goes up, the market goes down. If you hadn’t sold your assets it would just be a paper loss. Why did you sell yesterday?

 

I didnt. But I’m calculating the losses. 

 

I considered it today right before I posted this. Because losing gains is justifiable but I’m on the verge of this trade war bull **** eating into my investment capital and original cost basis. 

 

Then the slippery slope anxiety **** starts to set in. And I think about 1929 and people jumping off of roofs and ****. 

 

And then I think “I wonder if they thought that everything would be ‘ok’ the day before they jumped off the roof of the New York stock Exchange.”

 

And then I wonder if as they were jumping off the roof, were they thinking “if I would have just sold yesterday, I wouldn’t be jumping off this !@#$ing busted-ass roof.” 

 

This **** shouldn’t be an existential exercise. 

 

Ive decided to log out and not look again until Monday. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Juror#8

[US Egg]

Sell your Rolex.

[GG]

7 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

For the sake of argument, let’s just say a person has lost $64, 212 in liquid cash in the market since yesterday at about 10:30 in the morning (not to mention the impact on his 401k etc.). That person would like to know: 

 

1. How is this market condition not Trump’s fault? What is he protecting (please read that not as a loaded question)?

 

2. To the people who know the global economic impact of trade and tariffs, etc., is all this posturing worth it from a big-picture domestic economic well-being  “for the good of the nation” standpoint? 

 

3. In the meanest, most scathing way you can (name-calling is ok) please convince this person that they’d be an idiot to cut their losses and panic sell and walk away while they’re still just barely up on the year (talking within now just hundreds of dollars). 

 

This may read like a political attack or a political question but it’s not. I just want to know as apolitically as you can your thoughts more economically than anything. 

 

$64,980

 

Thanks bros. 

 

 

 

If you're tracking daily movements in your investment portfolio, that means:

 

1 - You do this for a living, you know what you are doing and would have already planned for the possible price movements, so the $64k paper loss doesn't matter much,  or

 

2 - You need access to that liquidity soon, which means the investments shouldn't be in anything that has high price volatility.

 

If you don't fall into either of the above, then don't worry too much about these periodic swings as long as you're fully diversified based on your investment goals. Do not panic and sell now, because you don't really know enough about the market to truly know where the highs and lows are.

 

To address your direct questions, what Trumpster giveth, he taketh away.  What's the normalized equity valuation anyway?  His trade stance is clearly the reason for the equity beatings in the last week, but his overall economic stance to reverse everything Obama put in place + the tax cut is the reason the market ran up in the first place. 

 

The only way to rationalize his trade position is to paint China into a corner to liberalize their market and to stop stealing intellectual property.  I think he may succeed there because Xi will not risk a popular revolt if 'China decides to go toe to toe with US in a full trade spat.  Now mind you, if it keeps going, it will be painful for everyone, and that's why stocks are being punished.

 

I'm not certain what he's trying to accomplish by poking Canada & EU, but it must involve behind the scenes politics.  He did come out with a modest win when the EU automakers supported dropping tariffs on US vehicles.

 

 

 

 

[Juror#8]

1 minute ago, I am the egg man said:

Sell your Rolex.

 

Fac q that **** sure won’t happen.

 

A man needs a good mechanical watch. 

 

I’m anxious but not broke. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you're tracking daily movements in your investment portfolio, that means:

 

1 - You do this for a living, you know what you are doing and would have already planned for the possible price movements, so the $64k paper loss doesn't matter much,  or

 

2 - You need access to that liquidity soon, which means the investments shouldn't be in anything that has high price volatility.

 

If you don't fall into either of the above, then don't worry too much about these periodic swings as long as you're fully diversified based on your investment goals. Do not panic and sell now, because you don't really know enough about the market to truly know where the highs and lows are.

 

To address your direct questions, what Trumpster giveth, he taketh away.  What's the normalized equity valuation anyway?  His trade stance is clearly the reason for the equity beatings in the last week, but his overall economic stance to reverse everything Obama put in place + the tax cut is the reason the market ran up in the first place. 

 

The only way to rationalize his trade position is to paint China into a corner to liberalize their market and to stop stealing intellectual property.  I think he may succeed there because Xi will not risk a popular revolt if 'China decides to go toe to toe with US in a full trade spat.  Now mind you, if it keeps going, it will be painful for everyone, and that's why stocks are being punished.

 

I'm not certain what he's trying to accomplish by poking Canada & EU, but it must involve behind the scenes politics.  He did come out with a modest win when the EU automakers supported dropping tariffs on US vehicles.

 

 

 

 

 

I’m just a hobbyist. Nothing close to a professional or a day trader. I swing trade and have some long plays. I’ve made a few dollars being mostly patient. It never gets easy seeing losses. Usually I’m diversified enough where I don’t see red across my portfolio. 

 

There was a little correction back in february but nothing that took me down 8%-23% across the board. That’s rough. And it’s natural to think about an exit strategy. 

 

I don't pretend to understand economics or global politics to get why any of this crap could be helping anyone. It seems counter-productive and disadvantageous. 

 

What you say about China and their reluctance to go toe to toe long term, wouldn’t the same apply to us given the impact this entire thing has had on the economy?

[KevinRome]

47 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

 

 

Ive decided to log out and not look again until Monday. 

 

Now you’re starting to think clearly. To fully think clearly you’d log out until next year or later.

 

What do you think your account would look like if the cabal’s seditious acts were successful and H was president? Suppose it might be lower than the recent dip?

Edited June 22, 2018 by KevinRome
Spelling error

[DC Tom]

15 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

 

Thanks. But you don’t look at your account and **** yourself? 

 

Because I did. 

 

Of course.  But I've also done this before - bought in to panic.  9/11, airline stocks; banks in 2008.  They dropped because no one wanted to be seen holding them, but there was no way at least some of them wouldn't recover.  Tripled my money on both.  So I've got previous experience to remind me that it's an opportunity, not a catastrophe.

 

Plus...I have an expert system that looks for mispriced option spreads and straddles.  Under certain conditions, arbitrage opportunities pop up.  This is one of those situations.  (I'd share, but they're fleeting - gone in 5 minutes sort of thing.)

 

Plus, I once lost ten grand in 90 seconds - realized loss, trading.  That kind-of puts a different perspective on tolerating investment losses.  I mean, I'm not happy with it...but I make a distinction between trading and investing (to the degree of having different accounts for each), and don't much worry about panic selling in investments.

[GG]

29 minutes ago, Juror#8 said:

 

 

What you say about China and their reluctance to go toe to toe long term, wouldn’t the same apply to us given the impact this entire thing has had on the economy?

 

Different stakes.  US is used to periodic economic meltdowns, but Trump won't have to worry if he needs to send in the tanks to the Mall.

[row_33]

the market has done very well since Trump took over

 

the big players at some point in time decide to cash in on their unexpected great ride, which they are fully entitled to do

 

and everyone else pays for it

 

when asked, i tell near retirees to convert it all to cash  when it's at a historic high and be grateful for the earnings because it will fall apart in days on you if you don't, have save millions in total for them, they on occasion buy me a beer as a thanks and keep in touch

 

this happens every 5 or so years and the media acts like it's the first time ever or it's worse than October 1929, both really not close to the truth

 

 

[Tiberius]

Buy more stock on the dip. Buying and holding through good and down times is the best long term strategy. And selling means paying taxes on the profits, so that's another loss. 

[DC Tom]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

And selling means paying taxes on the profits, so that's another loss. 

 

That's why I never sell for a profit.  So I make more money not paying taxes.

 

[Warren Zevon]

How long do you intend to hold this investment before you sell? 

[TPS]

There are a lot of good responses so far, so I’ll give you a slightly contrarian take with the caveat that trying to time the market is dicey even for professionals. 

First, my hemming and hawing, then a suggestion. I’m on record here for predicting a recession before the next presidential election. In my view, as you correctly state, the market is currently being whip-sawed by the trade issues and other temporary factors. There is certainly a lot of anxiety right now, and I won’t be surprised if something happens to trigger a big sell off. On the other economic hand, there will be a good move up when this is resolved. I think it’s safe to assume if there is a big drop over trade, Trump will acquiesce. The midterm elections are too important for him moving forward. What I’m trying to say is, so far all of the factors affecting the market in the near term are temporary and trying to time it with a big move isn’t wise. 

The suggestion. 

If anything, and this is what I’ve done recently, get Some of your portfolio liquid (maybe highly volatile stocks), to create a more conservative position AND give you the liquidity to jump back in when there is a big move down—to take advantage as Tom said. 

 

Given my prediction, at some point next year I will get very defensive. The key will be to watch the Fed’s reaction to economic growth, especially wage gains. 

 

To end, this site has been helpful in the past, especially with all of our discussion on 2008. By summer, I was 80% cash, which helped me avoid the Lehman-related crash in a big way. 

Good luck!

[Tiberius]

47 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

That's why I never sell for a profit.  So I make more money not paying taxes.

 

Yes, that's about it. Once I retire I can then start selling. I don't need the money now. 

 

What do do you think you are, mr wizkid day trader? Lol 

[Nanker]

$64k is chicken ****. 

[Wacka]

Why didn't you invest in Meadcon?

[3rdnlng]

1 minute ago, Nanker said:

$64k is chicken ****. 

Just crumbs!

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, Nanker said:

$64k is chicken ****. 

 

wipe our behinds with it