Sports analyst Michael Salfino on Tyrod Taylor/Bills offense

[MTBill]

Thanks YiO.

 

I wish this were not a thread of tweets but an actual article with statistics/charts/tables etc.

 

I have to say I agree a lot with the author - in terms of sacks being more of the fault of the QB than the OL (although it could also be scheme).  In the case of TT - he did hold on to the ball too long, but he also was more of a "running" QB, so for those analytics - did he include a planned delayed run in his stats?  I'm not going to pick apart the author here - just curious if he had an agenda.  Statistical analysis is dangerous when subjectivity comes into play - you really get garbage out of it other than "numbers" which you can say support your argument.

 

My real question is - "similar" O-Line, different QB, are we in for a season full of sacked QB?  I hope not, this author does not seem to shed any light on that subject as far as the OL is concerned.

[grb]

1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

Yeah, just like the quotes about how Woods and Watkins suck and TT needs REAL WR's to play well.  Back in 2016.

INT's have differences in field position too my dude.  A strip sack is worse than a 60 yard bomb that's intercepted.

 

"Everyone cherry picks but me."

 

 

 

Hilarious. What point do you think you're making? I doubt you even know.

 

Look at the numbers : Does it seem like Taylor needs an excuse for his play the limited time he had Watkins and Woods on the field? An 8.25 ypa would be near top of the league for any year, any team, any quarterback. The touchdown to interception ratio is stellar, and 27 tds total probably noses you up around the top dozen a typical sixteen game season. And that's what the "right on the cusp of being a back-up" did the only time in three years the Bills put a decent group of skill players around him. Please feel free to take your sack stat and ride that horsey as far as it goes. The big picture doesn't change :

 

How many games Taylor starts for Cleveland depends on how long Cleveland is playing meaningful games, which is hard to predict. But Taylor will be starting for an NFL team in '19 and the years after. Because this "right on the cusp" and "almost every team" schlock is - frankly speaking - pretty damn stupid. 

 

Edited June 20, 2018 by grb

[wppete]

Tyrod just doesn’t have that killer instinct to be an elite QB. Way too conservative with the ball.

[Lfod]

No offense to this thread but the only information I will find useful about Tyrod now is his play in Cleveland. 

[JMF2006]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

This thread is fascinating  from an analytics perspective. I know what I see as a casual fan but some of the numbers on sack % and 3 and outs are startling. Click on 1st tweet to read whole thread. 

 

 

 

Supports what I have been saying...........he runs around like a chicken with his head chopped off

[LABILLBACKER]

Tyrod failed in rallying his team in the 4th quarter.  That's the only stats or analytics I need.  He had 3 years and plenty of opportunities to do this and he failed.

[BringBackOrton]

21 minutes ago, grb said:

 

Hilarious. What point do you think you're making? I doubt you even know.

 

Look at the numbers : Does it seem like Taylor needs an excuse for his play the limited time he had Watkins and Woods on the field? An 8.25 ypa would be near top of the league for any year, any team, any quarterback. The touchdown to interception ratio is stellar, and 27 tds total probably noses you up around the top dozen a typical sixteen game season. And that's what the "right on the cusp of being a back-up" did the only time in three years the Bills put a decent group of skill players around him. Please feel free to take your sack stat and ride that horsey as far as it goes. The big picture doesn't change :

 

How many games Taylor starts for Cleveland depends on how long Cleveland is playing is playing meaningful games, which is hard to predict. But Taylor will be starting for an NFL team in '19 and the years after. Because this "right on the cusp" and "almost every team" schlock is - frankly speaking - pretty damn stupid. 

The point I'm making is the same point I've always made.  Tyrod is mediocre to bad.  Most people recognize this.  He has his Stans who manipulate data to make him seem better than mediocre and bad and claim that any data that runs to the contrary is cherry picking.  

Edited June 20, 2018 by BringBackOrton

[grb]

21 minutes ago, MTBill said:

Thanks YiO.

 

I wish this were not a thread of tweets but an actual article with statistics/charts/tables etc.

 

I have to say I agree a lot with the author - in terms of sacks being more of the fault of the QB than the OL (although it could also be scheme).  In the case of TT - he did hold on to the ball too long, but he also was more of a "running" QB, so for those analytics - did he include a planned delayed run in his stats?  I'm not going to pick apart the author here - just curious if he had an agenda.  Statistical analysis is dangerous when subjectivity comes into play - you really get garbage out of it other than "numbers" which you can say support your argument.

 

My real question is - "similar" O-Line, different QB, are we in for a season full of sacked QB?  I hope not, this author does not seem to shed any light on that subject as far as the OL is concerned.

 

Yes, Taylor often held the ball too long. Yes, the pass protection was frequently atrocious. Yes, Taylor sometimes made critical plays precisely because he held the ball too long. Partisans on the Taylor Issue tend to pick one of those three, yet they're all true.

 

But it's even more complicated than that. Time to Throw is a curious stat. Looking at the 2017 numbers - yes - we find Taylor near the bottom,  just above Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson. But we also find Tom Brady at 23rd, Matt Ryan at 25th, Case Keenum at 32nd and Jared Goff at 35th.

 

The top ten are : Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Josh McCown, Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Glennon, Jay Cutler, and C.J. Beathard. Excuse me for being critical, but I don't find that an inspirational list. Also : There's little more than a half-second difference between the topmost and worst numbers. I just paused to look at my watch and consider that. You assume, of course, that tiny little delta still has a colossal significance. Maybe it does, but it isn't reflected very much in the rankings. Good and bad quarterbacks are distributed almost randomly up & down the list.  

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2017/all#average-time-to-throw

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

Thanks for posting.  It's an interesting discussion about how stats are fairly or unfairly used to evaluate a QB like Tyrod.  

 

Not only does Salfino combine ints and sacks to evaluate QBs, he also advocates yards per pass play which I think is valid.   74% of the time, the team with the higher yppp wins the game - which seems common sensical enough.  

 

Either measure (ints plus sacks, or yppp) judges TT harshly though a few TT supporters make decent counter arguments in the thread.  

 

 

 

To be fair, most of the counters I read had the statistical weight of replying “nuh uh”

 

Guys simply saying “but the offensive line” without backing it up doesn’t give us much. 

4 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

@transplantbillsfan

 

I've got the numbers with positive rushes factored in as well as sack yards lost and pass yards, FWIW.

2015: 12th of 37 at 6.52 yards per touch

2016: 25th of 33 at 5.95 yards per touch

2017: 27th of 37 at 5.40 yards per touch

Cumulative: 25th of 39 at 5.95 yards per touch

 

The folks who excel in this particular stat are still the guys who get it done in the pocket. Top 5 cumulative since 2015 are Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Kirk Cousins. and the Yards per Touch stat is a significant factor in my QB rating system.

 

Yup.

[Cripple Creek]

8 hours ago, Woodman19 said:

Oh look, another thread on a player no longer on the team.

Interesting read, eh?

[NoSaint]

59 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Packers should dump Rodgers then.

Assuming Tyrod stays healthy and Hue Jackson isn't a complete **** show, I think the Browns will be playing meaningful games into December and Tyrod will be making a lot of people on here look stupid....even though they already look stupid.?

 

Only in Buffalo is “playing meaningful games into December” some resounding success...

[BADOLBILZ]

 

"The oldest, most simple and predictive stat" is not yards per pass.

 

It's turnover differential.

 

78%.

 

Not just "over the course of time"........practically the same 78% year in and year out.

 

Things like yards per pass can be greatly influenced by surrounding talent.

 

So if you have a WR corps that gets the least separation in the NFL.....as advanced stats suggest was the case in Buffalo in 2017.....I think it's reasonable to consider that a handicap to that teams QB's ability to get high amounts of yardage per pass attempt.

 

The WR situation in Buffalo in 2016 and 2017 was horrendous.  

 

 In 2015 with a better and healthier WR corps Taylor had a ypa of 8.0 which is very high.  

 

I've often held that Tyrod is a lot like Randall Cunningham wrt things like ypa.

 

Cunningham spent most of his career with BAD WR's and was basically a sub 7.0 ypa passer.

 

Except one year when he got Randy Moss and Chris Carter and Jake Reed for a full season and QB'd what was up to that point the highest scoring team in NFL history......with an 8.7 ypa.

 

Tyrod has a skillset that can give you elite numbers like an 8.0 ypa if you give him the talent.

 

If ypa can make guys like Tyrod and Cunningham look like All Pro's what does that say about ypa as a stand alone indicator of QB ability?

 

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[Teddy KGB]

3 hours ago, grb said:

 

And yet all you had to do was put Watkins and Woods on the same field with him, and he did this : 63.6% comp. 8.25 ypa. 27 td passes. 6 ints ( 15 games total)

But what am I saying ?!?  He was probably sacked during those fifteen games - while he was throwing over eight yards an attempt, with a 27-6 td/int ratio......

And to think, over half of the quarterbacks in the league throw to receivers as good if not better than W&W - probably way more than half.

Hell, Woods got only the third most targets on the Rams; Watkins even less.

You can almost say the QB for every team in the league had a better set of weapons these past two years than Tyrod, but not quite. Very close, tho.

 

I'm guessing a lot of people's quotes are right on the cusp of getting bumped, once games are played this fall..........

 

 

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Packers should dump Rodgers then.

Assuming Tyrod stays healthy and Hue Jackson isn't a complete **** show, I think the Browns will be playing meaningful games into December and Tyrod will be making a lot of people on here look stupid....even though they already look stupid.?

 

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

"The oldest, most simple and predictive stat" is not yards per pass.

 

It's turnover differential.

 

78%.

 

Not just "over the course of time"........practically the same 78% year in and year out.

 

Things like yards per pass can be greatly influenced by surrounding talent.

 

So if you have a WR corps that gets the least separation in the NFL.....as advanced stats suggest was the case in Buffalo in 2017.....I think it's reasonable to consider that a handicap to that teams QB's ability to get high amounts of yardage per pass attempt.

 

The WR situation in Buffalo in 2016 and 2017 was horrendous.  

 

 In 2015 with a better and healthier WR corps Taylor had a ypa of 8.0 which is very high.  

 

I've often held that Tyrod is a lot like Randall Cunningham wrt things like ypa.

 

Cunningham spent most of his career with BAD WR's and was basically a sub 7.0 ypa passer.

 

Except one year when he got Randy Moss and Chris Carter and Jake Reed for a full season and QB'd what was up to that point the highest scoring team in NFL history......with an 8.7 ypa.

 

Tyrod has a skillset that can give you elite numbers like an 8.0 ypa if you give him the talent.

 

If ypa can make guys like Tyrod and Cunningham look like All Pro's what does that say about ypa as a stand alone indicator of QB ability?

 

 

 

 

 

Tystans live forever.     

 

Congrats to grb for repeating the same post 500 times without being banned

 

Congrats to Scott Law for calling us stupid instead of racist this go around ??‍♂️

 

Badol being Badol is always a tasty treat 

 

#bortlestappedthatass

 

#shippedouttatownbecausehesucks 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[grb]

3 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Really cute puppies dude.

That aside, are you going show up this Fall - in the inevitable threads on TT's performance in Cleveland?

You might need your puppies then. They say pets are a great help to people suffering depression.........

[Teddy KGB]

1 minute ago, grb said:

 

Really cute puppies dude.

That aside, are you going show up this Fall - in the inevitable threads on TT's performance in Cleveland?

You might need your puppies then. They say pets are a great help to people suffering depression.........

 

You’re cute.   You really think Taylor is gonna get past the 60 yard Saints in week 2 ??????

 

We all know Taylor is gonna feast on the Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens like he commonly does with ease ??‍♂️☠️☠️☠️

 

Stan on Stanny, you’re beyond delusional here 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[grb]

Just now, Teddy KGB said:

 

You’re cute.   You really think Taylor is gonna get past the 60 yard Saints in week 2 ??????

 

They say the best thing to do in your situation is to stop digging......

[TigerJ]

9 hours ago, Woodman19 said:

Oh look, another thread on a player no longer on the team.

We've got 5 weeks and 2 days to kill before there is going to be any new content related to what the Bills are doing on the field.  That means if we're going to talk Bills at all, we're going to talk about old stuff.   I think it is well established that Tyrod is a high character guy who gets the most out of his talent, but his ceiling is clearly limited.  For most of us, I think Michael Salfino is preaching to the choir, whether or not we have looked at a particular statistic.  

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, grb said:

 

Really cute puppies dude.

That aside, are you going show up this Fall - in the inevitable threads on TT's performance in Cleveland?

You might need your puppies then. They say pets are a great help to people suffering depression.........

 

For the past few years I pick a team to watch throughout the season (last year was KC).

I usually pick a west team so it doesn't interfere with Bill's games but this year my team to watch is Cleveland.

I picked them before the TT trade so it should be fun watching how they play.

 

FWIW I got the Browns over/under at 5 wins.

[billsredneck1]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

There's a certain irony to a guy who basically says "I'm going to prove why all the guys who love Tyrod Taylor because of stats and analytics are wrong. Here are my stats and analytics to prove they're wrong." 

 

Especially when the system he's created is so flawed.

 

He puts a sack and an INT on virtually equal footing, which is preposterous. Field position is hugely important. So while sacks and INTs may be close to the same in terms of ending drives. One INT will cripple the TEAM significantly more than one sack. One thing about Taylor was that he was one of the best QBs in the NFL in 3rd and long (8+ yards) situations on pass plays in his 3 years in Buffalo, so it seems the 1st or 2nd down sack wasn't actually the "drive-killer" this guy describes them as.

 

Also I guarantee his Yards Per Pass Play is inaccurate because it factors in sack yards lost, but not scramble yards gained. If he factored in those scramble yards gained (he was right around 8 yards per scramble over his 3 years in Buffalo) then his whole perspective on this Yards Per Pass Play, which is a central component of his argument, would naturally shift.

 

This is terrible cherry picking and over compensation on this guy's part.

 

 

And not that I remotely wanted this thread bumped in any way, but shouldn't this be merged here?

 

not for nothing....and nothing personal, but tranny you're history i might question. you fought and dragged on the heels of ej and defended every move whaley ever made and you're hanging on everything tyrod. why don't you just realize neither was good enough to ever do anything for this team and get on board with what's taking place? you and another half dozen posters have dragged this on and on  and on. dw is gone, tt is gone and e.j. is where ever he is.

 

is there anything you guys can find to get behind this new direction? i have been a board member since 04....granted bbmb and you same guys were there all that time as well, but some of you guys beat the same drum...horse.... to f'ing death, then and now. how about we change the subject to nate's 5 picks?....and how he was a 5th rd. pic?...oh wait, that's in all the other threads.....cause i would bet 100 bucks that will happen.....never mind tyrod was a 6th. when will you guys turn the page?

 

i am so grateful for the change from an egotistical gm and blowhard coach ( and all the cronyism between russ and doug), that i haven't been this pumped for this team in over 20 years.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by billsredneck1

[YoloinOhio]

43 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

For the past few years I pick a team to watch throughout the season (last year was KC).

I usually pick a west team so it doesn't interfere with Bill's games but this year my team to watch is Cleveland.

I picked them before the TT trade so it should be fun watching how they play.

 

FWIW I got the Browns over/under at 5 wins.

Unfortunately I’m somewhat forced to watch the Browns here. They are on the big screen at the bar I go to watch the Bills. The incompetence and coaching is staggeringly brutal. You don’t go 1-31 with a last place schedule by accident. They have improved in some areas,  and could win a few more games this year but they will still suck until/unless Mayfield takes off and Hue is replaced. That’s the bottom line, imo. Tyrod should help them not go winless if he starts which is the plan. Could beat teams like the Jets etc.