BuffaloRush Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 For anyone that has never heard it before, this dude Pat Moran has a great podcast called Moran-Alytics. I guess that has been a blogger in Buffalo for nearly a decade and has the change to cover the Bills and Sabres for a few smaller publications. His podcast is focused largely on Bills and NFL football and he brings on many members of the Buffalo media and former players as well. http://moranalytics.com/ep-08-greg-gabriel-30-year-nfl-scout/ I went through his earlier archives and listened to former NFL scout and WNY native Greg Gabriel in April just before the NFL Draft. I've followed Greg on Twitter for a few years until he blocked me for disagreeing him. If you follow him, you know he is very much opinionated and outspoken. He was a staunch critic of Tyrod and a supporter of Peterman, which surprisingly died down after the start in San Diego. Go figure.... Anyway a few months ago, Greg was not a fan of Josh Allen or the majority of the QB's in this years draft. He said that all of the QB's are "overrated" and thinks it's possible that all but 1 will bust. He gives Baker Mayfield the best chance at succeeding. He is unsure about Darnold and feels that Josh Rosen lacks the intangibles to be successful. (Around 30 minutes) When Allen came up, he pretty much ripped him as a QB prospect. He said that Josh will be another Kyle Boller or Blaine Gabbert. A strong-armed QB who lacks the accuracy and mechanics to be successful. He said that Allen should have had, at minimum a 64% completion percentage in his conference and probably higher given the competition. Greg believes that these types of risks are the ones that get coaches and GM's fired. If he were the Bills he would have drafted Mason Rudolph and then taken another QB as well. He actually thought he might be a top 10 pick!!!!! (Around 36 minutes) When the discussion turns to LB, Greg feels that the Bills would love Roquon Smith and compared him to Luke Kuechley. He did mention Trumaine Edmunds but said that he lacked the instincts at MLB. He said that Edmunds reacts instead of anticipating and is basically an OLB playing MLB. He recommended Vander Esch as a better fit. If you listen to this interview - you will hear that Greg was very opinionated on these players before the draft in April. I'm not sure if he has changed his stance since then, but it's clear he is not a fan.
US Egg Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 This Gabriel can flap his wings all he wants ranting his angelic knowledge of football and most won't know him or cares who he is.
C.Biscuit97 Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 I mean a lot of people feel like this. The Bills will look like geniuses or complete idiots for drafting Allen. The overwhelming evidence of Allen is he fits the profile of qbs who bust at the next level.
BuffaloRush Posted June 19, 2018 Author Posted June 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, I am the egg man said: This Gabriel can flap his wings all he wants ranting his angelic knowledge of football and most won't know him or cares who he is. Thats the thing that he gets me. Listen to the interview. He speaks like he’s the only one who has answers. He even spends a lot of time putting down writers who do mock drafts. While he makes some good points, you get the impression that he thinks “my opinion is the only one that matters.” It makes for a good listen but at the same time Greg has never been the GM making the pick.
2003Contenders Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 I stop reading/listening when I hear the Boller comparison to Josh Allen. It is just such a lazy analysis over-simplified because both QBs had strong arms but poor completion % coming out of college. These two are/were VERY different prospects. It is way too early to project whether or not Josh Allen will reach his potential in the NFL, but he was genuinely in the discussion to be the #1 overall pick in the draft. That was never the case with Boller. 1
eball Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I mean a lot of people feel like this. The Bills will look like geniuses or complete idiots for drafting Allen. The overwhelming evidence of Allen is he fits the profile of qbs who bust at the next level. Agree with your first sentence. I think "complete idiots" is a gross overstatement. And "overwhelming evidence" of being a bust? Hardly. People are lazily looking at completion percentage and assuming that correlates to accuracy without factoring in the scheme, talent, play calling, etc. I made that mistake myself pre-draft, before I actually took the time to learn more about Allen. 5
hondo in seattle Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 Opinions are like arseholes - everyone's got 'em and most of them stink. Greg is a smart guy. But he's no more authoritative than the scouts and ex-scouts who think highly of Allen. We won't know who's right until Allen gets to play. 2
BarleyNY Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 Allen is a high ceiling, high risk prospect. That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. That risk (and the market he will play in) makes him easy to rip. It’s stupid for anyone to write him off before they see how he develops though. I’m sure not.
C.Biscuit97 Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, eball said: Agree with your first sentence. I think "complete idiots" is a gross overstatement. And "overwhelming evidence" of being a bust? Hardly. People are lazily looking at completion percentage and assuming that correlates to accuracy without factoring in the scheme, talent, play calling, etc. I made that mistake myself pre-draft, before I actually took the time to learn more about Allen. With al life respect, it’s because you’re a Bills fan and want him to be the guy. There are guys like Gabbert, Locker, etc who get drafted high and people just ignore their college production or make excuses for their play. Look, I hope you and the Bills are right. And as much as people want to blame everyone else for Allen’s problems, he also played with a top 10 defense. While dominating in college is no guarantee for nfl success, being mediocre in the Mountain West is worrisome. No matter who you play with. Top 10 pick qbs should elevate their teams and players around them.
hondo in seattle Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: With al life respect, it’s because you’re a Bills fan and want him to be the guy. There are guys like Gabbert, Locker, etc who get drafted high and people just ignore their college production or make excuses for their play. Look, I hope you and the Bills are right. And as much as people want to blame everyone else for Allen’s problems, he also played with a top 10 defense. While dominating in college is no guarantee for nfl success, being mediocre in the Mountain West is worrisome. No matter who you play with. Top 10 pick qbs should elevate their teams and players around them. Which he did. I think I recall one of his coaches saying they would have won 3 games without him. Football stats don't mean anything without context. It's a true team sport. Maybe the other top QB in this draft would have completed even a lower percentage of passes if they had the same supporting cast. Edited June 19, 2018 by hondo in seattle
KGun12TD Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 He is entitled to his opinion, even if he's wrong!
Luxy312 Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 I don't think it's so much Moran-alytics as it is Moron-alytics. Tiresome at best.
BuffaloRush Posted June 19, 2018 Author Posted June 19, 2018 41 minutes ago, Luxy312 said: I don't think it's so much Moran-alytics as it is Moron-alytics. Tiresome at best. Haha well that’s a fair assessment. Pat is certainly opinionated much like Greg. I’ll give him credit - he gets good guests both with relevance on a local and national level and his interviews are pretty good too. 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: Which he did. I think I recall one of his coaches saying they would have won 3 games without him. Football stats don't mean anything without context. It's a true team sport. Maybe the other top QB in this draft would have completed even a lower percentage of passes if they had the same supporting cast. Wyoming has the 9th ranked defense in all of college football. They gave up 17.5 points/ game (UCLA was 117th and gave up 36.5 points/ game). I’m going on a limb here but it’s easier to win games with a top 10 defense than a bottom 10 defense. myself, I’m not a fan of making excuses for players picked that high. Allen wasn’t a great college qb. It seemed very risky to me to take him as the highest drafted qb in franchise history. He has a lot to prove. I want him to be great. But this type of prospect is in every draft and they rarely translate.
BuffaloRush Posted June 19, 2018 Author Posted June 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Wyoming has the 9th ranked defense in all of college football. They gave up 17.5 points/ game (UCLA was 117th and gave up 36.5 points/ game). I’m going on a limb here but it’s easier to win games with a top 10 defense than a bottom 10 defense. myself, I’m not a fan of making excuses for players picked that high. Allen wasn’t a great college qb. It seemed very risky to me to take him as the highest drafted qb in franchise history. He has a lot to prove. I want him to be great. But this type of prospect is in every draft and they rarely translate. Well statistically speaking the odds are not in his favor. But I’ve heard the argument that a player’s success has more to do with coaching, scheme, and the plan a team has for his development, as opposed to the QB himself. Take a look at Jared Goff. He was looked like a bust his rookie year but McVay came in and upgraded his weapons and accentuated his positives. He probably doesn’t see that much progress with a different coach/scheme. As a Bills fan, I think you really have to have faith in Daboll
hondo in seattle Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Wyoming has the 9th ranked defense in all of college football. They gave up 17.5 points/ game (UCLA was 117th and gave up 36.5 points/ game). I’m going on a limb here but it’s easier to win games with a top 10 defense than a bottom 10 defense. myself, I’m not a fan of making excuses for players picked that high. Allen wasn’t a great college qb. It seemed very risky to me to take him as the highest drafted qb in franchise history. He has a lot to prove. I want him to be great. But this type of prospect is in every draft and they rarely translate. The quality of their D is irrelevant in this conversation except as it pertains to wins. Statistically speaking, Allen was not a great college QB. Partly because he started out in JUCO and came to Wyoming with raw skills and partly because his supporting offensive cast wasn't very good. When given lemons, Allen made lemonade. It's all you can really ask. Some say he was a great college QB - despite the poor stats - because he elevated a bad offense. Would the other top QBs have been more successful running that Wyoming offense with that scheme and those players against that schedule? We can speculate but we don't know. Some very smart folks like Allen. Some don't. If football scouts and former NFL QBs don't have a consensus opinion on Allen, I won't pretend that I know. I have a lot of hope but few expectations. 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Well statistically speaking the odds are not in his favor. But I’ve heard the argument that a player’s success has more to do with coaching, scheme, and the plan a team has for his development, as opposed to the QB himself. Take a look at Jared Goff. He was looked like a bust his rookie year but McVay came in and upgraded his weapons and accentuated his positives. He probably doesn’t see that much progress with a different coach/scheme. As a Bills fan, I think you really have to have faith in Daboll Fair points. Difference is Goff almost threw for 5,000 yards and 43 tds his last year in college. and I guess more of an issue is I don’t trust Daboll or anyone on our staff to develop a qb. I definitely would be more on board with Allen if we had McVay or Andy Reid. McVay traded for Sammy his first year. We drafted a bunch of late round slot wrs.
BuffaloRush Posted June 19, 2018 Author Posted June 19, 2018 Just now, hondo in seattle said: The quality of their D is irrelevant in this conversation except as it pertains to wins. Statistically speaking, Allen was not a great college QB. Partly because he started out in JUCO and came to Wyoming with raw skills and partly because his supporting offensive cast wasn't very good. When given lemons, Allen made lemonade. It's all you can really ask. Some say he was a great college QB - despite the poor stats - because he elevated a bad offense. Would the other top QBs have been more successful running that Wyoming offense with that scheme and those players against that schedule? We can speculate but we don't know. Some very smart folks like Allen. Some don't. If football scouts and former NFL QBs don't have a consensus opinion on Allen, I won't pretend that I know. I have a lot of hope but few expectations. Funny should say that. On another episode of Moranalytics, Pat interviews Adam Shefter after the draft. Shefter was very high on Allen and said that a lot of well-respected people in the NFL that he knows love the guy. Same with Kiper. We just won’t know
C.Biscuit97 Posted June 19, 2018 Posted June 19, 2018 1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said: The quality of their D is irrelevant in this conversation except as it pertains to wins. Statistically speaking, Allen was not a great college QB. Partly because he started out in JUCO and came to Wyoming with raw skills and partly because his supporting offensive cast wasn't very good. When given lemons, Allen made lemonade. It's all you can really ask. Some say he was a great college QB - despite the poor stats - because he elevated a bad offense. Would the other top QBs have been more successful running that Wyoming offense with that scheme and those players against that schedule? We can speculate but we don't know. Some very smart folks like Allen. Some don't. If football scouts and former NFL QBs don't have a consensus opinion on Allen, I won't pretend that I know. I have a lot of hope but few expectations. That’s fair as well. But he wasn’t really that good in Juco either. A guy I like Mayock liked Allen. He also liked Gabbert over Newton and think there are some similarities in Allen and Blaine (looked the part, limited college production, decided earlier in the process they were top 10 picks). I hate are being negative about a young guy. But it just strikes me as I’m smarter than history type pick.
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