Prediction: Nathan Peterman Bills Starting QB Wk. 1 vs. Ravens

[BurpleBull]

12 minutes ago, Lfod said:

You called it May 21st when you posted this topic. I'll be honest I never counted him out, but I never counted him in either. I was always on the fence. I can't give you credit for calling it May 21st yet you understand but I'll be back on this thread when it happens. 

 

I just keep going back to rewatch the highlights. Then I don't watch Peterman, just the line. It doesn't look dominant as the narrative. The one time Peterman couldn't fire quick he had to scramble to the outside to hit Kelvin Benjamin. I definitely could see the line being pushed back more then once but the ball is gone before it matters. 

 

3 games left until you look like some sort of football medium. 

 

Lol.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Not so much debated as downplayed.

 

With that acknowledgement, the Panther's defense was still able to come with pressure and Allen wasn't facing the Panther's first-team defense when his number was called either.

 

McCarron had the most time to throw of the three QB's easily.

 

You described McDermott's play as 'terrible' or 'horrible' and that just wasn't the case.

 

 

He has had an atrocious camp (and game the other night). He went from a guy that had a real shot to be the swing OT to a guy that has virtually no shot to make the roster.  It makes me upset too because I was hoping he’d take steps the other way and take Mills’ job. 

 

To be honest McDermott has maybe been the player that I’ve been most disappointed in through camp. Siran Neal and Austin Proehl probably deserve mentions. Vontae Davis looked like a shell of his former self as well.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[BurpleBull]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He has had an atrocious camp (and game the other night). He went from a guy that had a real shot to be the swing OT to a guy that has virtually no shot to make the roster.  It makes me upset too because I was hoping he’d take steps the other way and take Mills’ job. 

 

To be honest McDermott has maybe been the player that I’ve been most disappointed in through camp. Siran Neal and Austin Proehl probably deserve a mention. Vontae Davis looked like a shell of his former self as well.

 

Atrocious camp?

 

I didn't follow him that closely but from what I read in reports he was winning a lot of his 1-on-1 battles with certain first team defenders.

 

I know you're not getting me, but I'm really not getting you.

 

I'm not sure McDermott allowed a sack in that game.

 

My worry is Ducasse at LG.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Atrocious camp?

 

I didn't follow him that closely but from what I read in reports he was winning a lot of his 1-on-1 battles with certain first team defenders.

 

I know you're not getting me, but I'm really not getting you.

 

I'm not sure McDermott allowed a sack in that game.

 

My worry is Ducasse at LG.

I’m not a Duccase fan (at all). With that being said he played alright the second half of last year. If Teller looks like he did the other night though he may push for that spot at some point. He was mauling guys.

 

In terms of McDermott he’s struggled. He was a guy coming in that some people (myself included) thought could be the starting RT. He’s fallen to the 3rd string and had a rough night. 

 

Any way you look at it though the Bills are going to have to upgrade the OL and pass catchers next offseason. Fortunately they have 8 picks and like $80M-$100M in cap space. The defense is hopefully pretty close to set. They may want to add a pass rusher, a CB and an LB but the majority of the resources will be on offense.

[Lfod]

46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I agree.  The line looks somewhat competent, no more.  I'm not declaring the line "fixed" or even "OK" as some are until I see them when it counts, on Sunday.

A line is always gonna be pushed back on a number of plays, though. 

 

I think indirectly, you capture the conundrum the Bills coaches are trying to solve.  Peterman has a faster brain for football than AJM, I think.  He picked up Daboll's offense faster.  He understands it more thoroughly.  Sometimes that translates into knowing more quickly what he should do with the ball.  But he also gets fooled more (and this will multiply on game day when coaches scheme and try to deceive), and he still doesn't have a lot of zip.  When his mechanics aren't perfect and he tries to zip it, it doesn't go exactly where it should.  Peterman may give them more offense, but he'll also give them more mistakes.

 

AJ is Steady Eddy.  He won't make a lot of mistakes, and he'll push the ball downfield more than the opponents expect.  But he'll also hesitate because he's not sure what he's seeing.  He'll get sacked more, and leave plays on the field more than Peterman.

 

So which do they want?

 

It is a tough call. I like what Peterman does but he won't get away with being one dimensional. If that's the entirety of his game then it could spell some trouble for him, like you said it will be planned for. You may get some nice drives and some ugly interceptions. 

 

AJ being the vet will know when to toss it away to live another day. Only if he isn't given the time often I think it could spell trouble for him. 

 

I only give Peterman the edge because he didn't use the running game. AJ took a sack but Peterman did throw an interception. 

 

If they go with Petermans quick passing attack then they need to precondition WRs to bat the ball down instead of tipping a poorly placed ball into the air to defenders. Like instead of that WR tipping it trying to make a play he could of slapped it down. If you can't make the play at least don't set it up so the other team can sheesh. AJ probably won't be dangerously misplacing those balls but he's going to be running for his life if he can't fire em off sometimes to show the threat of it. He can't be one dimensional either. 

 

If they go with AJ they will need the line to hold up better. AJ did throw bombs but only one made it to a wide wide wide open Wr. The other two over thrown, so I'm not convinced yet that he can consistently push down field, only that he would try. A 60 yard bomb is great but if it's over thrown more then not I'm not sure it's that enticing. 

 

Anyway if AJ is using running plays on a night they seem to want it to be done exclusively through the air is kind of a tell. 

 

That's what I see but obviously the coaches see what they see. The wrs might not been fast enough to catch up to those deep balls. The evaluation could be different then mine, probably is lol. 

Edited August 12, 2018 by Lfod

[Figster]

23 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

The biggest thing we saw from Peterman was deeper attempts that came out just as fast as the shorter attempts. His ball speed won't matter if he uses the whole field. 

I was fascinated watching some of Petermans target/trick throws and from an accuracy standpoint the kids amazing IMO.

 

 trying to keek an open mind, but I'm still very skeptical,

 

thanks for the reply

Edited August 12, 2018 by Figster

[BurpleBull]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The confusion is:

1) when you take away 40% of the OL, including the center, you don't have the same line.  otherwise, why would some of us be concerned about the starting OL minus Wood and 'Cog?

2) I believe it was more than 40% changed.  I saw DeBeer in there, for example.  Coach Sal comments:

• Third-team offensive line

Allen was under duress too often, and it was especially true when the third-string offensive line was in the game (the other two quarterbacks didn’t play with the group). They also committed penalties that stalled drives and had the offense going backwards. Their performance as a group did not instill a lot of faith in the depth of the line.

 

There were at least two dropbacks where McCarron had to have been afforded somewhere between 3-5 seconds to make a throw.

 

I think the O-line that he played under offered the most time to pass of the three. 60%, Teller, Boettger, and Wesley remained in the game for a very long stretch when Allen entered.

 

I thought McDermott played solid (others seem to disagree) and I thought Redmond looked better as a pass protector than Bodine, so to me there wasn't a significant drop-off in play, the way you'd expect if wholesale changes had been made.

 

The Panthers seemed to get more aggressive with the blitz with Allen in the game, so perhaps that added to the appearance of the "third team" O-linemen buckling under the pressure of the pass rush than it appeared to earlier in the game.

 

I think Gerhardt DeBeer and Mo Porter entered the game extremely late, maybe as late as with under three minutes left.

 

Allen had his share of attempts on long-developing routes and he completed some of them, so it's not like Allen was offered up to wolves in a meat jacket.

 

I just noticed the last italicized part, and that just isn't true.

Edited August 12, 2018 by BurpleBull

[BurpleBull]

52 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not a Duccase fan (at all). With that being said he played alright the second half of last year. If Teller looks like he did the other night though he may push for that spot at some point. He was mauling guys.

 

In terms of McDermott he’s struggled. He was a guy coming in that some people (myself included) thought could be the starting RT. He’s fallen to the 3rd string and had a rough night. 

 

Any way you look at it though the Bills are going to have to upgrade the OL and pass catchers next offseason. Fortunately they have 8 picks and like $80M-$100M in cap space. The defense is hopefully pretty close to set. They may want to add a pass rusher, a CB and an LB but the majority of the resources will be on offense.

 

I agree, Wyatt Teller looks like the real deal. Wouldn't be surprised if he ended up replacing Ducasse at some point in the season.

 

Looks very good as a pass protector.

 

Took long enough but we finally found common ground. Lol.

 

[Tyrod's friend]

10 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think that I’ve ever said that he needs to play this year. I’ve said over and over and over that he will play when they think he is ready. It may not be this year. It may be this year.

 

He looked like Allen at Wyoming because he wasn’t playing with NFL talent (just like at Wyoming). Between the receivers and OL that he played with none of them may make the roster. How is he supposed to develop pocket presence and work on his base when it’s a fire drill as soon as the ball is snapped? That’s why he needs to play with better players and it will likely be at the expense of one of the other 2.

 

The single most important thing to this franchise is Allen’s development. If he develops they could become the Eagles in the near future. They will have tons of assets and a stud QB on a rookie deal. That is when the window is open. 

 

We aren’t even talking about the same thing. It’s not “play him now” it’s “let’s develop this incredible talent.” It isn’t a coincidence that he was back working with the ones on Friday. McDermott and Beane have a plan to develop him. Nothing is going to alter that plan.

Agreed, on the whole. I don't doubt for a second that the plan is going to be worked. And he is the future. I know it seems like I'm contradicting myself, but I'm not ...

The same coaching staff that felt it was okay to play Peterman, on the road, against a premier defense while the team was in a playoff hunt, will pull that trigger again. That precedent has been set. But I don't know that it will be too soon.

I review that tape and I see three interceptions, maybe four. I see a hero, and frankly the NFL eats heros for breakfast but occasionally the hero becomes Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. That happens because God gifted them with the makeup and the tools to be right.

What I'm getting at is this: you don't "develop" out of a guy what is in his soul. He'll occasionally take the safety valve, but his heart is going to be making that scorched earth pass to McCloud. Either you have Farve, or you don't.

The question is whether or not this coaching staff has the balls to go through the fire and suffer an Aikman-like 5-20 record, a Manning like 1-13 and come back and ask for more. To be clear, I don't think Josh Allen has the mental makeup of Ryan Leaf or a china doll. He can take the pain, grow and be a better QB. That's the way I see it.

10 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Allen played behind the same guys McCarron did minus McDermott at LT and Redmond at C, for the majority of the game; McDermott was solid, Redmond looked better than Bodine did while in with McCarron, and Boettger was part of the second team that blocked for McCarron.

 

The narrative that Allen was running around for his life, unable to display his full potential, just like during his days at Wyoming, because he was playing with 'third team' O-linemen is a false one.

 

He was afforded pass protection also.

I looked at that tape several times.

He had sufficient time to make any play he wanted to make. There were consistently open plays underneath the coverage if he wanted to do that; he chose to be a hero. 

And the talent level on the field while he was playing was at the least equivilant. Perhaps better; didn't he at the least have an NFL starter at center, calling out the protection schemes? AAR, it's irrelevant to me. 

End of the day, he is what he is. You can polish him a little bit, get him to absorb the intelligence of the game for sure. But if we are truly lucky, we'll see plays like that 4th and 2 for the next 15 years. 

[BullBuchanan]

On 8/11/2018 at 12:04 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

The difficulty of preseason though is separating appearance from reality... Peterman was an All-star last preseason, too... remember?

 

I'm okay if he ends up starting, but his ball velocity still looks like something DBs salivate over. His sideline passes will forever terrify me... I think I have PTSD just from watching him last year.

I hope you didn't pull something grasping at those straws. He threw with more velocity than Taylor coming out of college and tied with McCarron, who people around here seem to think has a better arm. Brady had a noodle arm his first couple of years and it didn't slow him down. Arm strength can be improved, and Nate just revamped his mechanics this offseason. I hate having to look like I'm SaviorPeterson to defend this kid from the absolute bananas takes you guys have.

I think the kid can be good if all the chips fall right for him, but I'm not saying he's going to be some elite player. It's absolutely ridiculous the lengths that Allen fanboys will go to to gain an inch in the debate about who should start. Maybe we should just start Logan Thomas since he set the all-time record?

[BurpleBull]

11 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Agreed, on the whole. I don't doubt for a second that the plan is going to be worked. And he is the future. I know it seems like I'm contradicting myself, but I'm not ...

The same coaching staff that felt it was okay to play Peterman, on the road, against a premier defense while the team was in a playoff hunt, will pull that trigger again. That precedent has been set. But I don't know that it will be too soon.

I review that tape and I see three interceptions, maybe four. I see a hero, and frankly the NFL eats heros for breakfast but occasionally the hero becomes Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. That happens because God gifted them with the makeup and the tools to be right.

What I'm getting at is this: you don't "develop" out of a guy what is in his soul. He'll occasionally take the safety valve, but his heart is going to be making that scorched earth pass to McCloud. Either you have Farve, or you don't.

The question is whether or not this coaching staff has the balls to go through the fire and suffer an Aikman-like 5-20 record, a Manning like 1-13 and come back and ask for more. To be clear, I don't think Josh Allen has the mental makeup of Ryan Leaf or a china doll. He can take the pain, grow and be a better QB. That's the way I see it.

I looked at that tape several times.

He had sufficient time to make any play he wanted to make. There were consistently open plays underneath the coverage if he wanted to do that; he chose to be a hero. 

And the talent level on the field while he was playing was at the least equivilant. Perhaps better; didn't he at the least have an NFL starter at center, calling out the protection schemes? AAR, it's irrelevant to me. 

End of the day, he is what he is. You can polish him a little bit, get him to absorb the intelligence of the game for sure. But if we are truly lucky, we'll see plays like that 4th and 2 for the next 15 years. 

 

Yeah, I saw what you saw.

 

The evidence is right there.

 

I'm pretty convinced that a lot of Allen's supporters, would sacrifice a winning season, for the sake of seeing him throw the football 60 yards, once a game for 16 games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/5/2018 at 12:57 PM, Dr. K said:

Great post! Sounds right to me. Makes me almost feel bad for Belichick. Almost. 

 

12 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

He had sufficient time to make any play he wanted to make. There were consistently open plays underneath the coverage if he wanted to do that; he chose to be a hero. 

And the talent level on the field while he was playing was at the least equivilant. Perhaps better; didn't he at the least have an NFL starter at center, calling out the protection schemes? AAR, it's irrelevant to me.

 

11 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

Yeah, I saw what you saw.

The evidence is right there.

 

All right, you two.

 

Over on another thread, someone posted the actual breakdowns from Cover1.

I believe I may be looking at "confirmation bias in action" but just in case, here you go.

And no, Adam Redmond is not an an "NFL starter at center", that's a huge stretch. 

Dude's mostly been on the Colts and Bills practice squads, has dressed for 4 games and has 0 starts.

 

 

[Tyrod's friend]

58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

All right, you two.

 

Over on another thread, someone posted the actual breakdowns from Cover1.

I believe I may be looking at "confirmation bias in action" but just in case, here you go.

And no, Adam Redmond is not an an "NFL starter at center", that's a huge stretch. 

Dude's mostly been on the Colts and Bills practice squads, has dressed for 4 games and has 0 starts.

 

 

As I said, it didn't make a bit of difference to me WHO PLAYED.

Being pressured does not equate to having your pocket collapse. He had time to throw. And the fact that the other team was sending blitzers only indicates to me that there would have been opportunities downfield. 

I stand 100% behind what I said. I've watchted the tape several times now. He had plenty of time to throw. 
 

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I hope you didn't pull something grasping at those straws. He threw with more velocity than Taylor coming out of college and tied with McCarron, who people around here seem to think has a better arm. Brady had a noodle arm his first couple of years and it didn't slow him down. Arm strength can be improved, and Nate just revamped his mechanics this offseason. I hate having to look like I'm SaviorPeterson to defend this kid from the absolute bananas takes you guys have.

I think the kid can be good if all the chips fall right for him, but I'm not saying he's going to be some elite player. It's absolutely ridiculous the lengths that Allen fanboys will go to to gain an inch in the debate about who should start. Maybe we should just start Logan Thomas since he set the all-time record?

 

Well... the "Allen fanboys" (as you ridiculously call some of us... though I'll be perfectly happy with McCarron to start the season and will ultimately be fine if Peterman actually does) are looking more and more likely to see their guy start sooner rather than later.

 

Edited August 13, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[CodeMonkey]

On 5/21/2018 at 6:16 PM, BurpleBull said:

Nathan Peterman will win the starting QB position barring injury. He'll be much improved from last season.

 

Excited about Josh Allen as the starting QB, but Peterman is the guy people aren't talking about right now who will have everyone talking by the end of training camp.

 

He's worked on his mechanics, is said to have added velocity to his throws, has a lot to prove and is no stranger to struggling early in his career and picking himself up.

 

A little talked about fact concerning Peterman is that he's right up there with Allen as Bills QB's who've scored high on the Wonderlic test for those who equate the test to mental sharpness.

 

I still hold to the belief that Peterman was at the very least a third round prospect in his draft class.

 

Peterman will be the guy.

 

So this is how I have it panning out... 

 

1. Peterman

 

2. McCarron

 

3. Allen

 

With Allen at three for his protection as he starts out his young career.

Sure looked like it in the first preseason game, but still a long way to go.

[BurpleBull]

3 hours ago, CodeMonkey said:

Sure looked like it in the first preseason game, but still a long way to go.

 

If Peterman has another solid performance against CLE, I think he gets the nod.

 

Keeping my fingers crossed.

 

[starrymessenger]

The risk starting a young QB too early is irreparable damage to his confidence. It's a psychological thing. I'm starting to doubt that Allen is even capable of losing his confidence. His every action seems to show total self assurance. Combine that with talent that's just crazy and you could be looking at a prodigy. And that voodoo chemistry can be infectious - raise a lot of guys levels of play.

If it looks like he can handle it (while understanding that he is going to make some mistakes) and if he outperforms the other guys through what's left of the preseason practices and games, then IMO he should get the start when the bullets start flying for real. 

[Steptide]

I read on Instagram that Peterman was 12 of 15 with three td's in practice today. Anyone know if this is true? If so, that kid is really making a case for himself 

[BurpleBull]

15 hours ago, Steptide said:

I read on Instagram that Peterman was 12 of 15 with three td's in practice today. Anyone know if this is true? If so, that kid is really making a case for himself 

 

It sounded like all three QB's had forgettable practices yesterday. 

[BurpleBull]

On 8/12/2018 at 9:37 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

All right, you two.

 

Over on another thread, someone posted the actual breakdowns from Cover1.

I believe I may be looking at "confirmation bias in action" but just in case, here you go.

And no, Adam Redmond is not an an "NFL starter at center", that's a huge stretch. 

Dude's mostly been on the Colts and Bills practice squads, has dressed for 4 games and has 0 starts.

 

 

 

Not denying that he was pressured, I pointed that out without the help of Cover 1 in one of my earlier posts.

 

On 8/12/2018 at 1:02 AM, BurpleBull said:

 

There were at least two dropbacks where McCarron had to have been afforded somewhere between 3-5 seconds to make a throw.

 

I think the O-line that he played under offered the most time to pass of the three. 60%, Teller, Boettger, and Wesley remained in the game for a very long stretch when Allen entered.

 

I thought McDermott played solid (others seem to disagree) and I thought Redmond looked better as a pass protector than Bodine, so to me there wasn't a significant drop-off in play, the way you'd expect if wholesale changes had been made.

 

The Panthers seemed to get more aggressive with the blitz with Allen in the game, so perhaps that added to the appearance of the "third team" O-linemen buckling under the pressure of the pass rush than it appeared to earlier in the game.

 

I think Gerhardt DeBeer and Mo Porter entered the game extremely late, maybe as late as with under three minutes left.

 

Allen had his share of attempts on long-developing routes and he completed some of them, so it's not like Allen was offered up to wolves in a meat jacket.

 

I just noticed the last italicized part, and that just isn't true.

 

This likely helped lend weight to the perception that Allen was fighting for his life every play, while playing with a lineup completely consisting of third string O-linemen serving as his protection---neither of which were true.

 

 

As far as "confirmation bias in action":

 

On 8/10/2018 at 9:07 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

There has never, ever, ever been a guy that was taken with a top 10 pick (and 2 2nds) that a team isn’t moving into the lineup. It has literally never happened and isn’t happening here. His development is independent of them. Alex Smith was an MVP candidate for much of last year and is in Washington now. That’s the way it works. You ALWAYS play your guy. As soon as Allen is ready we are going to see him.

 

FWIW, I had an interesting conversation with my brother today who was a college QB and a high school OC. He said that the main reason that Allen has to move up the depth chart now is so that you can develop his flaws. Allen playing behind a sieve of an OL is never going to give him a chance to work on his footwork or his progressions. Every play is a broken play. Yesterday looked like Allen at Wyoming. He was infinitely more talented than the guys around him and had to play playground football. That isn’t what the Bills need to see to accurately evaluate him. That is the biggest task. The investment that they made in him dictates that he will be given the job at some point. They need to do their part to make sure that he is ready for that point.

 

Allen narrowly avoided a sack from extreme pressure from a blitz package twice, pulled down and ran to avoid what could've turned into a coverage sack once from what I saw, and was sacked because of Keith Ford, the RB, not the O-line. Every other play he was afforded adequate to good (in some cases very good) pass protection; the pass protection was not comparable to the O-line he played behind at Wyoming, as was suggested. If there is anything I would clear up, it is that Allen played 'hero ball' and that he had sufficient time to make ANY throw, more accurately, he had sufficient time to make a positive play from the pocket the majority of his snaps, pressured or not; Allen chose to forgo the easier completion in favor of the more difficult, contested completion many times.
 

On 8/9/2018 at 11:57 PM, Kelly the Dog said:

Peterman played very well. It's inarguable. It's also inarguable that all Peterman showed was what he does well. We knew all this already. He's very good, and his fans overvalue, the idea that he can drop back and throw a 10 yard pass. He had one very nice rollout play, his best of the game, where he made a great pass to KB who made a great catch on the sidelines. 

 

But Peterman has two glaring fatal flaws and he did zero in this game to alleviate the worry. He doesn't handle a strong rush well, and he doesn't get the ball downfield, and he doesn't have the arm strength. He didn't do one thing to disprove his downfall. Actually he stared down his receivers a lot, and his INT was well behind the intended receiver.

 

McCarron showed better than Peterman. He did a lot of things QBs have to do to succeed in this league. He delivered the ball downfield. He went to his second and third reads. He stepped up in the pocket excellent. He was steady and yet still got the ball downfield.

 

if you're a coach, the most impressive QB on the field, regardless of stats, was Allen. He showed all kinds of talent in ten different QB qualities. He was mostly great against the rush. He scrambled and ran great. He threw the ball downfield. He should have had two complete bombs. His TD was ridiculous. He even showed touch. For his first game, with guys like Foster, who !@#$ed him several times (and I hoped was going to make the team but was awful), Allen was very, very impressive. He should be playing.  

 

• Peterman didn't face a strong pass rush in this game, but of what he did face, he negated it with quick completions. 
• Peterman completed both of his downfield attempts, the TD to Benjamin and the would-have been TD to Streater, which was called back on an offensive interference penalty.
• McCarron missed on both of his deep shots downfield, one to Brandon Reilly and the other to Streater (?).
• Allen "should have completed" three bombs, but at least one of them, he threw five yards out of bounds along the sideline.
• Of Allen's 19 pass attempts, not one demonstrated touch. 

 

 

Confirmation bias against Peterman, in favor of Josh Allen, I know you see it...it's impossible to miss. 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by BurpleBull