Homey D. Clown Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 Honestly, that's really not an unfair assessment of 2017. This team had abysmal performances against middling teams all year, so it's hard to disagree with the 2017 analysis. Can you predict this year's performance from that? hard to say, we'll just HAVE to play the games this year I guess.
Wily Dog Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 58 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said: i for one am expecting a great season. our run d and sack totals will be very much improved. vontae davis will be just as good as gaines last year. our rookies...edmunds, johnson and neal will have an immediate impact....not to mention....well i just think they crushed this draft from top to bottom. our playcalling and passing attack will improve 100% and even though the schedule looks rough to start, we will be in a great position to go on a second half winning streak. i fully expect to command a wild card spot. my biggest hope...or worry is the first 2 games against conference perennial playoff teams. however, nobody can game plan for daboll, a.j. and our defense so maybe we can come out of the gate and go at least 2-2 out of the first 4. if we can do that, we may only drop 2 more to the pats...plus maybe a let down somewhere but that puts us at 11-5. i am saying we will be no less than 10-6. i hope a.j. has great success and i want nate to back him up. if we get a playoff season from a.j. that will only pay great dividends. my bottom line prediction is that we will be able to rest a.j. and play allen the last game as we will have a playoff spot locked up. I'll take that but i expect the Bills will beat New England twice this year.
frostbitmic Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 I have a strange feeling that the Bills will be better than rotoworld and that it won't take much to be better.
dollars 2 donuts Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 (edited) I've stated my position before about this on how I just can't imagine this team being worse than 6-10, but more so that I can't imagine that a team with this defense would sink to the bottom of this league and to the top of the 2019 draft. That said, I think some of the national talking heads are giving a ridiculous amount of credence for the success of this team being an offense and a QB that was 29th and 31st (?) in the league, respectively. If Shady goes down...maybe you book this team under 4 wins. However, Chan's 4-12 team was simply dreadful (starting 0-8) and yet they were still 4-12. While Williams' 3-13 was the result of being gutted and having literally nobody. ...yet this team and this staff are going to finish around 2-14? Edited June 11, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts
JoPar_v2 Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 This is a fantasy football profile yes? So I can understand why it’s pretty brutal. Seriously would any of you take any current Bill in your fantasy leagues? Besides McCoy maybe?
bills_fan Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 My biggest disagreement with the "analysis" is that he claims the playoff berth was detrimental. I disagree completely. That berth got the 17 year playoff drought off the teams back. More importantly, the new staff won't be fielding questions about a playoff drought they had no part in creating. It bought them time to do the rebuild right. I just hope Allen proves to be the guy here.
US Egg Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 RotoWorld, RotateWorld or whatever it is Mr. Silva works at....he's a snotty one.
Shaw66 Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 Look, I keep saying it's certainly possible that the Bills are among the worst teams in the league in 2018. It's not difficult to describe scenarios where the Bills are remarkably bad, starting with the fact that it's quite possible that they could have one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Their best starter appears to be McCarron, who couldn't take the job from Dalton, who is not anyone's dream quarterback. But if you want to predict that the Bills are going to be bad, how about giving some reasonably explanations, like I just did. Instead, this guy cherry-picks stats to explain his conclusion. Like, claiming Kelvin Benjamin is a horrible receiver because he's among the slowest. How about the fact that he was Cam Newton's favorite target and had back-to-back 1000 yard seasons? (well, almost.) What difference does it make if your wideout is slow, if you're running a run-first, possession offense and the guy is more or less unstoppable inside 20 yards? He's faster than Gronkowski, and he's nearly as dominant. He says that the Bills were a "regression-bound" 6-2 in games decided by one score. That is, the Bills were good at winning close games and the law of averages says they won't be that good. But in the same sentence he says the Bills were a horrible -57 in point differential, but somehow THAT stat is not regression bound. In other words, without justification he assumes that the Bills bad stats will remain bad and their good stats will turn bad. Not exactly sure how he concludes the Bills have the worst talent in the division. Bills finshed three games better than the Dolphins and four games better than the Jets, beat the Dolphins twice and split with the Jets. So how does that equate with those teams having better talent? Does that mean the Bills have much better coaching? The Bills added a starting defensive tackle and a starting corner back in free agency, and neither the Jets nor the Dolphins drafted a player with more upside than Edmunds. So where does he see a talent differential? As I said, the Bills could be bad, and their are reasons to explain why they might be. This guy doesn't seem to have any of those reasons. He just thinks they'll be bad because, well, he thinks it. 4
corta765 Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 4 hours ago, plenzmd1 said: I think it is a good article...just cause it does not slurp the Bills does not mean it wrong. I am terrified of Josh Allen, rooting like hell for him, but i don't think he gets it done. Silva is a analytics/stats guy..and the numbers do stare the Bills were fortunate last year and bound for a regression..much like the Raiders numbers did the year before last. Now, there is a legitimate argument that numbers/stats do not tell the whole story..and especially in such a short season that the NFL is..but I tend to trust them. I hope I am wrong..especially the first month as it appears I will be at 4 of the first 5 games...but think it will be a long year for the fellas. I am one of those in the "this team is 5-11 6-10" camp so I am not drinking the coolaid. I freely would admit I expect the team to regress this year due to luck swinging against them and in general an offense that won't do enough to support a potentially decent defense. That said some of his remarks are straight pot shots and scream of a someone who only looks at numbers to analyze everything and nothing else matters when building a roster. Saying a team mistakenly made the playoffs is about as dumb as it gets. Culture is a major competent to the success of any org regardless of sports. Incredibly talented organizations have fallen despite the talent they had because the culture destroyed any chance of success. Outside of Marrone this franchise has lacked a clear concise culture from its coach and in total from owner to coach going back to the days of John Butler. It really f*ckin mattered they made the playoffs given the pressure and decisions made during the drought and the weight it lifted. It shifted the expectations finally from just making the playoffs to winning consistently long term. I've read a lot of Silva's stuff and he basically believes the Bills should've sold off everything last year to rebuild to bottom out at like 2-14. Ask the Browns how that's gone for years and where they stand. Drafting QB's is the biggest gamble period. The Bills at least took a shot at a guy, they have $100 million in cap, and a good amount of picks in 2019 to build with Allen long term. The majority of major NFL media understand all of this and have praised what McBeane are building. You have no guarantees in sports but the plan is there in plain sight which is vastly different compared to years and years before. Like I said their certainly is valid criticism for the current roster I have no clue why the heck we didn't resign even Deonte Thompson at WR but I am just one opinion and voice. I wish analyst's like Silva would do less interjection of their personnel view on building a roster/team and actually analyze even if it is different from their beliefs. 2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Look, I keep saying it's certainly possible that the Bills are among the worst teams in the league in 2018. It's not difficult to describe scenarios where the Bills are remarkably bad, starting with the fact that it's quite possible that they could have one of the worst starting QBs in the league. Their best starter appears to be McCarron, who couldn't take the job from Dalton, who is not anyone's dream quarterback. But if you want to predict that the Bills are going to be bad, how about giving some reasonably explanations, like I just did. Instead, this guy cherry-picks stats to explain his conclusion. Like, claiming Kelvin Benjamin is a horrible receiver because he's among the slowest. How about the fact that he was Cam Newton's favorite target and had back-to-back 1000 yard seasons? (well, almost.) What difference does it make if your wideout is slow, if you're running a run-first, possession offense and the guy is more or less unstoppable inside 20 yards? He's faster than Gronkowski, and he's nearly as dominant. He says that the Bills were a "regression-bound" 6-2 in games decided by one score. That is, the Bills were good at winning close games and the law of averages says they won't be that good. But in the same sentence he says the Bills were a horrible -57 in point differential, but somehow THAT stat is not regression bound. In other words, without justification he assumes that the Bills bad stats will remain bad and their good stats will turn bad. Not exactly sure how he concludes the Bills have the worst talent in the division. Bills finshed three games better than the Dolphins and four games better than the Jets, beat the Dolphins twice and split with the Jets. So how does that equate with those teams having better talent? Does that mean the Bills have much better coaching? The Bills added a starting defensive tackle and a starting corner back in free agency, and neither the Jets nor the Dolphins drafted a player with more upside than Edmunds. So where does he see a talent differential? As I said, the Bills could be bad, and their are reasons to explain why they might be. This guy doesn't seem to have any of those reasons. He just thinks they'll be bad because, well, he thinks it. He seems to want to dissent for the sake of dissenting. On twitter he is blocking anyone who disagrees even if their argument has any fact because he is set in his ways.
RocCityRoller Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 5 hours ago, Enemarty said: Bingo. He's right, we're awful in the fantasy department, other than perhaps the team defense stat. Which is why his rant is so off the mark. He ignores the likely strength of the team, as it doesn't fit his fantasy perspective. I also agree with others that our O-line may not have taken as much of a hit as portrayed. I don't see playoffs this year, more like the 6-8 win range. But it will be fun to watch the team grow. You nailed how I feel about this team 100%, including the O-line
jrober38 Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 It's hard to argue with a lot of what he said. Our schedule is hard. Allen is a project. Our offense is devoid of talent in the pass game. What he doesn't cover is our defense, which could be elite. No idea how good it will be, but if it's top 10 you can probably bank on at least 6 or 7 wins. The offense is going to be the major problem area. Will we be able to score points? How good or bad will Allen be?
Doc Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 That he slams the Bills for making the playoffs shows he's a moron.
26CornerBlitz Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Doc said: That he slams the Bills for making the playoffs shows he's a moron. He's in good company along with some fellow TBD posters who whined about draft position after the season.
Fadingpain Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Isn’t it better to be written off by these scrubs and have no pressure going into the season? Id rather the Bills be the “under the radar” team that might catch some of their opponents by surprise.. Scrubs? Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often.
Aussie Joe Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 Just now, Fadingpain said: Scrubs? Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often. Yeah I get it... you are a glass is half empty type... Was Vegas wrong last year? Scrubs I tell you.. If only the pain was fading but it’s been one splitting migraine since Draft night..
Nihilarian Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 What's funny is that last year was being criticized as a tank year after moving Sammy, Marcell, Woods, Gilmore, Gillislee among others. They dumped some big salaries along with some not really worth the money players, and yet the team made the playoffs. Still, the key point here for 2018 is the Bills lost Center Eric Wood, all pro LG Richie Incognito and traded away Cordy Glenn. Meanwhile, the FO didn't upgrade any of those positions in the draft. Plus the team moved away from the running QB who could neutralize a somewhat bad right side of the line with his scrambling ability. Now.this year the team wants the QB's to be strictly pocket throwers with a much worse line. Things could get really ugly really quickly and make that 5 INT's in a half by Peterman look like a normal occurrence every game this year. Everything is going to depend on how that offensive line can hold up this year or if this FO can pull off a Buddy Nix and find some usable bandaids off the waiver wire like he did with Erik Pears, Kraig Urbik. Walterfootball has the Bills picking #2 behind Miami in the 2019 NFL draft. If so I think the Bills are taking a bunch of offensive linemen in that draft.
Shaw66 Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 34 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: Scrubs? Pay attention to what Vegas thinks about all this; they aren't scrubs and they aren't wrong all that often. Vegas often under values the Bills on the over-under, because Vegas wants to even out the betting. The general public thinks the Bills are horrible (in part because of journalism like this), so the general public tends to take the under on the Bills. (The general public thinks the Pats will win it all, so the over-under on the Pats often is a little high, for the same reason. ) In order to even out the betting, Vegas has to push the Bills' over-under down a bit, making the over look like more of a bargain. So if Vegas is saying 6.5, and if they're discounting the Bills a bit, then the "real" over-under is about 7. I think that's low, but I'm an optimist; it's probably a pretty good prediction. 2
Aussie Joe Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: What's funny is that last year was being criticized as a tank year after moving Sammy, Marcell, Woods, Gilmore, Gillislee among others. They dumped some big salaries along with some not really worth the money players, and yet the team made the playoffs. Still, the key point here for 2018 is the Bills lost Center Eric Wood, all pro LG Richie Incognito and traded away Cordy Glenn. Meanwhile, the FO didn't upgrade any of those positions in the draft. Plus the team moved away from the running QB who could neutralize a somewhat bad right side of the line with his scrambling ability. Now.this year the team wants the QB's to be strictly pocket throwers with a much worse line. Things could get really ugly really quickly and make that 5 INT's in a half by Peterman look like a normal occurrence every game this year. Everything is going to depend on how that offensive line can hold up this year or if this FO can pull off a Buddy Nix and find some usable bandaids off the waiver wire like he did with Erik Pears, Kraig Urbik. Walterfootball has the Bills picking #2 behind Miami in the 2019 NFL draft. If so I think the Bills are taking a bunch of offensive linemen in that draft. The OL is the biggest question mark for me in 2018 and looks on paper the area where the Bills are weakest.. They did draft Teller in the 5th who looks a reasonable prospect ( but it would be a surprise if he is an early season starter), but they had the opportunity to take Tyrell Crosby ( or someone else) in the 4th and overlooked him for what appeared to be a lesser need at cornerback depth... Can only hope that they are confident in some of the younger guys who were already on the team ( I'm looking at Connor McDermott) who they have earmarked to step up this year... I'm hoping that they have something else in mind other than Bodine and Newhouse anyway...
JoPar_v2 Posted June 11, 2018 Posted June 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: Vegas often under values the Bills on the over-under, because Vegas wants to even out the betting. The general public thinks the Bills are horrible (in part because of journalism like this), so the general public tends to take the under on the Bills. (The general public thinks the Pats will win it all, so the over-under on the Pats often is a little high, for the same reason. ) In order to even out the betting, Vegas has to push the Bills' over-under down a bit, making the over look like more of a bargain. So if Vegas is saying 6.5, and if they're discounting the Bills a bit, then the "real" over-under is about 7. I think that's low, but I'm an optimist; it's probably a pretty good prediction. This is exactly right. People get so PO’ed about a Bills line haven’t the faintest idea about how Vegas works or what the handicappers are trying to accomplish. They aren’t Bills “haters” claiming that the Dolphins are 6 points better than the Bills, or whatever. Stop taking it that way.
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