Question About Accuracy

[richardb1952]

One thing I noticed in watching a small amount of film on Josh Allen is his tendency to attempt passes further downfield when shorter range targets are available and more open.  This is something TT very seldom did.   I also noticed he is not afraid to throw in pretty tight windows, something else TT seldom tried.  I believe these two factors contribute to a small but significant contribution to his less than 60% completion rate.  What I do like about Allen is the mindset to "make something happen" on every play, though there are times he would be better served to just throw it away or take the shallow crossing route.

[LeGOATski]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

We’ve all seen enough tape on JA to know he can be VERY accurate -at times. If he’s to be categorized as a particular type passer, I’d say ‘gunslinger’. This type QB is willing to take a lot of chances because he believes in himself to zip it in tight windows. Their downside is many picks (Farve, Fitz). I expect to see this often from him. He’s still very young, so he’ll certainly get wiser and better through the next few seasons. His college teams didn’t utilize screens or flair passes much -which counts heavily in accuracy discussions. Along with his youth and his ‘fastball’ being other-worldly, it’s understandable he’s more adept to this than taking something off the pass and still be precise.

I predict greatness.

 

No, that counts heavily toward completion percentage discussions.

 

Go watch some analysis of his actual accuracy and ball placement. There's a lot of good and a lot of bad.

 

Only time will tell.

 

History is not in his favor, though. And it sucks to hear about how he missed an easy slant in practice, but I think reports like that will be commonplace. Along with reports about amazing bullet passes across the field while on the run.

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

No, that counts heavily toward completion percentage discussions.

 

Go watch some analysis of his actual accuracy and ball placement. There's a lot of good and a lot of bad.

 

Only time will tell.

 

History is not in his favor, though. And it sucks to hear about how he missed an easy slant in practice, but I think reports like that will be commonplace. Along with reports about amazing bullet passes across the field while on the run.

You are correct, but you can't deny that his completion stat is what people harp on when worrying about his accuracy issues. 

 

Oh, he's below 60%, the sky is falling!!

 

Let the kid play.  When he played in the Senior Bowl with better WR's etc.  He looked good.  It's one game granted, but let's hope that's a harbinger of things to come.

[US Egg]

Give it a rest. It's been beaten into the ground since the draft already.

 

I can't be the only one tired of hearing about Allen's accuracy issues.

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

You are correct, but you can't deny that his completion stat is what people harp on when worrying about his accuracy issues. 

 

Oh, he's below 60%, the sky is falling!!

 

Let the kid play.  When he played in the Senior Bowl with better WR's etc.  He looked good.  It's one game granted, but let's hope that's a harbinger of things to come.

EJ Manuel to Chris Gragg was once the highlight of the Senior Bowl...

 

Don't put any stock in that game.

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

EJ Manuel to Chris Gragg was once the highlight of the Senior Bowl...

 

Don't put any stock in that game.

Why not?  He played with good guys and looked good.   You know as well as I do that people around here are going to nitpick every single throw he makes for the next 15 years.  It's unrealistic and unfair to only consider poor performances and discount positives.

 

Going back to the entire completion percentage thing for a bit,  if you take 60% as the magic number as some do, and then look at his 56% rate, let's say he threw 30 passes a game on average.  The difference between 56% and 60% is one completion.  It's ridiculous to get hung up on that.

 

At best a drafted QB has a 50:50 shot at making it.  Let the kid develop, and hopefully he's on the right side of the 50:50 equation.  Not much else to do, and from all things I've read he'll certainly put the work in to succeed.

[LeGOATski]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why not?  He played with good guys and looked good.   You know as well as I do that people around here are going to nitpick every single throw he makes for the next 15 years.  It's unrealistic and unfair to only consider poor performances and discount positives.

 

Going back to the entire completion percentage thing for a bit,  if you take 60% as the magic number as some do, and then look at his 56% rate, let's say he threw 30 passes a game on average.  The difference between 56% and 60% is one completion.  It's ridiculous to get hung up on that.

 

At best a drafted QB has a 50:50 shot at making it.  Let the kid develop, and hopefully he's on the right side of the 50:50 equation.  Not much else to do, and from all things I've read he'll certainly put the work in to succeed.

Why are you still talking about completion percentage?

 

This thread is about his accuracy.

 

He is not an accurate thrower. Many respected analysts have concluded this through the actual study of his throws and better accuracy metrics are available, which point to Josh Allen being inaccurate.

 

I don't care that people will be nitpicking. This thread is about his accuracy.

 

How come Baker Mayfield can hit a bullseye from 10 yards out, while Josh Allen misses the target net completely? It's because he's !@#$ing cross-eyed or something.

[cd1]

21 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

 

How come Baker Mayfield can hit a bullseye from 10 yards out, while Josh Allen misses the target net completely? It's because he's !@#$ing cross-eyed or something

How come Josh Allen can hit an eight foot high cross bar from 35 yards away and no other qb in the draft could? You see what I did there...

 

You want to discuss accuracy rather than completion percentage? Define Accuracy without using the word accuracy or accurate.

Edited June 8, 2018 by cd1

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, cd1 said:

How come Josh Allen can hit an eight foot high cross bar from 35 yards away and no other about in terms draft could? You see what I did there...

 

You want to discuss accuracy rather than completion percentage? Define Accuracy without using the word accuracy or accurate.

This makes no sense.

 

Accuracy - the quality or state of being correct or precise.

 

Your sentence was inaccurate.

[cd1]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

This makes no sense.

 

Accuracy - the quality or state of being correct or precise.

 

Your sentence was inaccurate.

It was corrected

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Why are you still talking about completion percentage?

 

This thread is about his accuracy.

 

He is not an accurate thrower. Many respected analysts have concluded this through the actual study of his throws and better accuracy metrics are available, which point to Josh Allen being inaccurate.

 

I don't care that people will be nitpicking. This thread is about his accuracy.

 

How come Baker Mayfield can hit a bullseye from 10 yards out, while Josh Allen misses the target net completely? It's because he's !@#$ing cross-eyed or something.

I agree with you that accuracy and completion percentage are not equivalent.  But as I pointed out earlier, we are in a decided minority around here.  I brought up the difference between 55% and 60% to show the absurdity of that argument.

 

As for actual accuracy, you I think are completely exaggerating this kid 's accuracy or lack thereof.  As I pointed out earlier, the thing people tend to confuse is accuracy vs. precision.  Accuracy is being around a certain target but not actually hitting it.  Precision is hitting the same spot repetitively, but the spot is not what you are aiming at.  NFL QBs have to be somewhat of both.  If you have a guy that is double covered and you have to hit a very tight window, that's when you have to be both precise and accurate.

 

I suspect you are the type of naysayer that will pick out one play and them harp on it endlessly.  I hope I am wrong about that.

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

This makes no sense.

 

Accuracy - the quality or state of being correct or precise.

 

Your sentence was inaccurate.

Accuracy and precision and decidedly NOT the same.  Refer to the diagram below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Better picture. 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree with you that accuracy and completion percentage are not equivalent.  But as I pointed out earlier, we are in a decided minority around here.  I brought up the difference between 55% and 60% to show the absurdity of that argument.

 

As for actual accuracy, you I think are completely exaggerating this kid 's accuracy or lack thereof.  As I pointed out earlier, the thing people tend to confuse is accuracy vs. precision.  Accuracy is being around a certain target but not actually hitting it.  Precision is hitting the same spot repetitively, but the spot is not what you are aiming at.  NFL QBs have to be somewhat of both.  If you have a guy that is double covered and you have to hit a very tight window, that's when you have to be both precise and accurate.

 

I suspect you are the type of naysayer that will pick out one play and them harp on it endlessly.  I hope I am wrong about that.

You are. I've never been that guy.

 

I just know that Josh Allen has repeatedly demonstrated that his inaccuracy and lack of precision are problematic outside of the influence of mechanics.

 

It shows on tape and you can view analysis from Matt Waldman, Cover1, Voch Lombardi, etc. online. You can read about accuracy metrics from football analytics sites. This info is readily available.

 

So, why'd the Bills draft him? I think the same reason they draft all other players. He fits the process. He has the measurables and intangibles. He has high potential.

 

Do you think Josh Allen's "natural inaccuracy" (stealing that phrase from Gunner Bill) is correctable? How'd you answer the poll?

 

I chose rarely.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

You are. I've never been that guy.

 

I just know that Josh Allen has repeatedly demonstrated that his inaccuracy and lack of precision are problematic outside of the influence of mechanics.

 

It shows on tape and you can view analysis from Matt Waldman, Cover1, Voch Lombardi, etc. online. You can read about accuracy metrics from football analytics sites. This info is readily available.

 

So, why'd the Bills draft him? I think the same reason they draft all other players. He fits the process. He has the measurables and intangibles. He has high potential.

 

Do you think Josh Allen's "natural inaccuracy" (stealing that phrase from Gunner Bill) is correctable? How'd you answer the poll?

 

I chose rarely.

First I don't think he's that inaccurate or has "natural inaccuracy".  I tend to place more stock in what guys like Daboll, who have been coaching forever say, and he thinks he's coming along fine.  Second, I think he's like any other rookie QB.  He's got a 50:50 shot. 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

First I don't think he's that inaccurate or has "natural inaccuracy".  I tend to place more stock in what guys like Daboll, who have been coaching forever say, and he thinks he's coming along fine.  Second, I think he's like any other rookie QB.  He's got a 50:50 shot. 

It's fine to be optimistic right now. That's the most we can be.

 

Daboll would say nothing to indicate uncertainty or displeasure at this point in time. First OTAs of the kid's career. So, choosing to put stock in that is questionable.

 

I think QBs that are accurate have a better shot than those who are not. Not all rookie QBs are created equal.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Accuracy issues seem to be rarely fixed and, like others have said, it depends on what they stem from.

 

It's well-documented in film scouting reports before the draft (Matt Waldman, Voch Lombardi, Cover1, etc.) that Allen has accuracy issues stemming from beyond just lower body mechanics. Sometimes his mechanics are sound and he still just misses. No explanation.

 

That will not be correctable.

 

All you say is true and it bothered (I think?) Gunnerbill and Buffalo716 as well.  I said that when Lamar Jackson was throwing I could freeze the tape and predict if it would be on target or not.  I couldn't do that with some of Allen's throws. 

 

To be fair, though, Jordan Palmer has attributed those accuracy issues to lower body mechanics, an "overstride" issue and if honest, he really should be in a better position to tell - I got to say I wouldn't be able to tell for a guy of Allen's height what's a good step and what's an overstride, so I'm quite sure I couldn't see it on tape.

[cd1]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

It's fine to be optimistic right now. That's the most we can be.

 

Daboll would say nothing to indicate uncertainty or displeasure at this point in time. First OTAs of the kid's career. So, choosing to put stock in that is questionable.

 

I think QBs that are accurate have a better shot than those who are not. Not all rookie QBs are created equal.

Let me guess - you are an "other Josh" guy...

 

OTAs and you have already dug yourself in to defending your stance on JA being a bust...  Wow!

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

It's fine to be optimistic right now. That's the most we can be.

 

Daboll would say nothing to indicate uncertainty or displeasure at this point in time. First OTAs of the kid's career. So, choosing to put stock in that is questionable.

 

I think QBs that are accurate have a better shot than those who are not. Not all rookie QBs are created equal.

You just want to discount anything positive said about the kid, it seems, and harp on this accuracy thing.  Accuracy is not an either/or thing as you're implying here.

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All you say is true and it bothered (I think?) Gunnerbill and Buffalo716 as well.  I said that when Lamar Jackson was throwing I could freeze the tape and predict if it would be on target or not.  I couldn't do that with some of Allen's throws. 

 

To be fair, though, Jordan Palmer has attributed those accuracy issues to lower body mechanics, an "overstride" issue and if honest, he really should be in a better position to tell - I got to say I wouldn't be able to tell for a guy of Allen's height what's a good step and what's an overstride, so I'm quite sure I couldn't see it on tape.

It's proportional, right? It should look the same, unless the kid has a weird leg to torso length ratio...

 

Like I said before, the portion of Josh's inaccuracy that's attributed to bad lower body mechanics seems like it can be correctable and if that's enough to clear the fence into Franchise QB Land, then hallelujah!

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

It's proportional, right? It should look the same, unless the kid has a weird leg to torso length ratio...

 

Like I said before, the portion of Josh's inaccuracy that's attributed to bad lower body mechanics seems like it can be correctable and if that's enough to clear the fence into Franchise QB Land, then hallelujah!

On this we can all agree!

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

History has shown that accuracy problems like Allen has are rarely corrected at the next level.

 

The Bills are gambling that they can fix him and be the exception to the rule.

 

 

I agree and disagree strongly.  That's why I said I don't know if Allen has accuracy issues.  

 

I agree very much that physical, mechanical accuracy issues are rarely corrected at the next level.   It is very, very difficult to turn around 10 years or more of bad muscle memory.   Some guys do it, but not many.   I remember reading once about Favre.   He had terrible footwork.  The Packers worked constantly with him about his footwork, and he became a Hall of Famer because he got his footwork under control.  Then there were some coaching changes, and they stopped preaching footwork to him.   He went back to his old habits and had a couple of bad seasons, until they realized they had to go back to preaching about his footwork constantly.

 

I think Allen is different.  I can't say I've studied the guy carefully, but I think he has excellent mechanics in his basic throwing motion.  That's why he generates such power.   And we've seen him throw plenty of pinpoint passes.    I think to the extent he has accuracy issues, it's probably because his decision making is undeveloped.   

 

Here's what I mean:   I'd guess that about 75% of throws that an NFL QB makes are to a primary or secondary receiver - look at the defense, see what they're giving you, find the receiver, throw it.  I think Allen can throw those 75% all day long, accurate as anyone, so long as he's making the decisions fast enough.  If he knows immediately following the snap he's throwing a 12-yard out pattern, he's going to throw it accurately.   That is, I think if he knows he's making that throw, his feet, his hips, his shoulders, his hands will naturally get into the right positions to make the throw, because he's a good thrower.

 

The problem is that if he isn't a good decision maker and he decides too late, he has to hurry the throw and then he may be in trouble.   Same as any other quarterback.   

 

And the other 25% may be a problem, too.   But the other 25% are problems for most quarterbacks.   Rodgers is about the best I've seen throwing from awkward positions and maintaining his accuracy.  He gets upper body rotation when his lower body is way out of position.   Allen can make those throws, too, but I don't think he's learned how.   Learning how to do that IS possible; that's just a question of getting the game to slow down and practicing.   Steph Curry makes some of the most awkward looking layups I've ever seen - he makes because he practices them.   

 

I think the Bills are going to teach Allen what he's looking at, and once he's learned it, he'll be just fine on the 75%.  What he does on the other 25% will separate him the others, just as it does with all other QBs.