Lets Check Back To Reality On The Bills Defense

[corta765]

OK so I am not here to say the Bills defense will suck or be a bad unit. In fact I think they could Top 10ish in the league and looking back on the season see a formidable unit with its best days to come. With that said I have seen a lottt of posters assuming all ready this defense is going to be great with some going as far as Top 5. I love the enthusiasm but we need to take the reality pill a little also.

Consider:

-The Bills have not one but two rookie LB's they basically are playing full time. Milano may not be a rookie and got some seasoning but he himself will still need time to adjust to his role. Assuming Edmunds week 1 will just step in without any mistakes and be lights out is a dangerous bet. I think he could win DROY but the kid will need some games to establish himself and learn the flow. I think Edmunds will rock long term and by mid season be showing his potential but slow down on his immediate impact also.

-The front 7 is injecting potentially three new starters (Edmunds, Murphy, Star) who also will need time as a unit to grow as a group. Could they start the season on a tear? Sure, they also could need a few weeks to adjust and have issues as they find their way.  In no way will this unit struggle against the run like last year I think they will hold their own pretty well, but ascending from bottom 30 to Top 5 is a heck of a leap for a line.

-The secondary while it should be good and could be great is relying on two starters (Vontae Davis & Philip Gaines) who have injury histories. I think Davis history is overstated still exists, but Gaines absolutely has issues. If everyone is healthy that is a major difference in coverage compared to what it looks like if either is out. 

-The Bills defense can still be better but the first half of the schedule especially faces some teams where holding them to 24 pts or less should be seen as a victory. The Chargers, Pats, Packers, Vikings, & Texans (potentially) all offer explosive offenses where just the defense keeping it within a score would be success. Additionally all of these teams have good to great offensive lines, plus a team like Baltimore is returning a guy like Marshall Yanda to the lineup. Remember Seattle's defense started building back in 2011, it wasn't until 2013 which they had their coming out party a full 2 years later.

-The Bills offense will probably have issues moving the ball so the defense will have to be on the field a lot and at points in rough field placement. They managed decently with this last year, but even so it still takes a toll on the defense after a while.

 

Like I said I think this Bills defense actually will be pretty decent and I could see them absolutely near the Top 10. The 2013 defense for Buffalo isn't as highly regarded as 2014 but it finished 10th in ypg after being 22nd the year earlier. Our defense finished 26th last year so jumping in the Top 10 range would be a giant improvement alone. It's rare that teams leap rather then take a step first. A modest improvement this season that sees our defense mold into the unit it wants to be by the end of the season would be great in my eyes.

[formerlyofCtown]

I think the key will be injuries.  If we don't catch the bug this will be a dominant D by week 5.

[Chandler#81]

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

[Jay_Fixit]

 

10 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

You think Star Lotulelei is a poor mans Adolphus Washington and Trent Murphy, who’s played 47 career games is washed up?

 

I can’t wait to read more of you.

 

Edited June 4, 2018 by Jay_Fixit

[corta765]

11 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

I think you have some valid points with the d-line. Unless Hughes turns back up or Shaq finds his thing they aren't elite. I do think they can be productive which this coaching staff is good with. LB corp potentially could be dominant in another year or two, this year will take some time but the talent is there at 2 of the 3 spots. Overall if they are even just in the middle defense wise in ypg its good with me.

[oldmanfan]

And if the queen had you know what.....

 

If, if, if.  Long offseason.

[mjd1001]

I have some doubts about this D also...mostly centered on the pass rush.  I do not see it as consistent...or even league average.  They have to show they can put some pressure on the passer.

[FrankoElTanko]

^ agree (w Jay_FixIt)... Washed up at 27 and healthy currently? Poor Man's Adolphus (who has literally HALF of the production as Star, although Star is a NT)? "whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws" I am curious, what (multidimensional) DT were we supposed to acquire to change that and when were we? and did we not try to do exactly as best we could in the 3rd round with H. Phillips, who had over 100tackles from the nose last year? 

 

Are you trolling?

 

 

[Bob in STL]

I think they improved the defensive talent and depth from where they ended last season ... much more so than the offense has. 

 

With Leslie Frazier running the defense I think it is a safe bet they improve from last year.  

[Shaw66]

The year Kuechly arrived, Carolina's defense moved up ten to 15 spots in points defense and yards defense.

 

Yes, a lot of things have to happen, but the Bills have a rookie middle linebacker with a ton of talent, a great pair of corners in Davis and White, a veteran and talented defensive line.   Yes, a lot of things have to come together, but setting a goal of top 5 isn't unreasonable.   It could happen.  

[aristocrat]

29 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

 

Whomp whomp. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

Murphy is washed up going into his 4th season and coming off of his best season, while getting better each year he has played?

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

OK so I am not here to say the Bills defense will suck or be a bad unit. In fact I think they could Top 10ish in the league and looking back on the season see a formidable unit with its best days to come. With that said I have seen a lottt of posters assuming all ready this defense is going to be great with some going as far as Top 5. I love the enthusiasm but we need to take the reality pill a little also.

Consider:

-The Bills have not one but two rookie LB's they basically are playing full time. Milano may not be a rookie and got some seasoning but he himself will still need time to adjust to his role. Assuming Edmunds week 1 will just step in without any mistakes and be lights out is a dangerous bet. I think he could win DROY but the kid will need some games to establish himself and learn the flow. I think Edmunds will rock long term and by mid season be showing his potential but slow down on his immediate impact also.

-The front 7 is injecting potentially three new starters (Edmunds, Murphy, Star) who also will need time as a unit to grow as a group. Could they start the season on a tear? Sure, they also could need a few weeks to adjust and have issues as they find their way.  In no way will this unit struggle against the run like last year I think they will hold their own pretty well, but ascending from bottom 30 to Top 5 is a heck of a leap for a line.

-The secondary while it should be good and could be great is relying on two starters (Vontae Davis & Philip Gaines) who have injury histories. I think Davis history is overstated still exists, but Gaines absolutely has issues. If everyone is healthy that is a major difference in coverage compared to what it looks like if either is out. 

-The Bills defense can still be better but the first half of the schedule especially faces some teams where holding them to 24 pts or less should be seen as a victory. The Chargers, Pats, Packers, Vikings, & Texans (potentially) all offer explosive offenses where just the defense keeping it within a score would be success. Additionally all of these teams have good to great offensive lines, plus a team like Baltimore is returning a guy like Marshall Yanda to the lineup. Remember Seattle's defense started building back in 2011, it wasn't until 2013 which they had their coming out party a full 2 years later.

-The Bills offense will probably have issues moving the ball so the defense will have to be on the field a lot and at points in rough field placement. They managed decently with this last year, but even so it still takes a toll on the defense after a while.

 

Like I said I think this Bills defense actually will be pretty decent and I could see them absolutely near the Top 10. The 2013 defense for Buffalo isn't as highly regarded as 2014 but it finished 10th in ypg after being 22nd the year earlier. Our defense finished 26th last year so jumping in the Top 10 range would be a giant improvement alone. It's rare that teams leap rather then take a step first. A modest improvement this season that sees our defense mold into the unit it wants to be by the end of the season would be great in my eyes.

 

My tongue was partially in cheek when I said the D would be awesome. But I don't think it's impossible either.

[MJS]

There's not really a reality to check back to. All we have are guesses to this point.

 

Your guess is not better than everyone else's guess, by the way.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

And the award for “the most awful and ill-informed post of the day” goes to..... 

 

as for what the OP said. I don’t get what posters you are seeing. From what I’ve seen the majority of what people are saying is it could be a borderline top 10 unit. That’s realistic and it’s something you seem to agree with. I’m not seeing much about the D being over hyped around here honestly. 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

You’re more optimistic than I am, Corta. I see Star Looneylewinski as a poor man’s Adolphus Washington and Murphy as washed up. We haven’t had any pass rush ends since Mario’s 2nd last season. Kyle’s best playing is behind him and whoever/whatever player rushes from the other side likely only hurries a few throws. I do like the way LBs are shaping up but the young guys will be exploited by great offenses. The secondary is also encouraging, but is a major injury away from being brutalized. 

#NotThisYear

 

How exactly does a 5 year player become a poor mans anything of a 2 year player?  This is one whack take.  

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, White Linen said:

 

How exactly does a 5 year player become a poor mans anything of a 2 year player?  This is one whack take.  

Especially when the young guy was as bad as he was last year. Really really REALLY bad take. 

[Heavy Kevi]

There are question marks on the line.

 

But objectively, the secondary is top 12 at a minimum.

 

I would say this year is set up to be a learning year for the young man at mike, but we won't be upset about the pick.

 

My guess is they will look incredible at times, and dominate a few games.... But get exposed and look like rookies out there just as often.

 

I just need to see consistency in the secondary, growth and flashes from the lb's, and not really much as far as the dline goes. McBeane did the secondary last year, linebacker this year, and I would expect a rebuild of the line next year post-Kyle.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Have people been saying our D would be lights out this year???

 

We all know Lorax and Kyle are slowing down but still steady. Shaw has been a bust thus far. Hughes hasn't been stellar for a couple years. Our other 2 LBs are inexperienced but talented. 

 

All those are big question marks.

 

Our secondary should be excellent.

 

All that said, McDermott is a defensive HC, so I suspect a lot of his time and effort goes to them and, once again, our D carries us into the postseason

[Dadonkadonk]

Great defenses rush the passer and create turnovers.

Good to Very good defenses give up yards and first downs but don't surrender big plays, keep the points against low, and are opportunistic on defense.

Bad defenses can't stop the run, generate little to no pass rush, and have coverage breakdowns.

 

This defense can be very good if the secondary stays healthy.  To become great they need Star and Kyle to push the pocket back.  In addition, they will need Hughes to be a bit more dominant and either a slimmed down Lawson or Murphy to generate pressure from the other side.

 

I would leave Hughes at DE most of the time but I would like to see some packages with Washington at DE and Hughes/Edmunds at LB in the nickel.  

 

I think Murphy has a better chance of being a complete bust than he does of being a double digit sack guy.  PED guy coming off major injury.  Just don't see why this board is so excited about him.  I'm more excited to see Lawson playing at a lower weight.  He has been fat and out of shape since the first game he played.  Playing closer to his college weight hopefully will allow him to get back some of his burst in the pass rush.  If not perhaps the best we can hope is he holds up well against the run as he did last year.