JinxedBill1 Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 I hope he lights it up in Cleveland. I'm not concerned with anything other than his hesitation to throw guys open. You can win any big game doing that. He'll win you 7 to 9 games a year but we want to be better than that. I honestly think that's what the coaches thought when they traded him,
HOUSE Posted June 3, 2018 Author Posted June 3, 2018 I will miss those 9 to 6 wins with Superior Buffalo Bills field goal kicking
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, Young34 said: It did go up from 2002-2003, by .2%. from 2001 - 2002, his QBR dropped off by 10 points. QBR is a rough way to judge QB's though. For example, Tyrod had a much higher QBR than Brady did in each of their first three seasons, which clearly isn't a great example. Which is why many say stats lie. 44 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Well he did tweet out asking for pro bowl votes after one of the worst games of his career... Sad wasn’t it 28 minutes ago, FearLess Price said: Youre preeching to the wrong crowd. Stats can be manipulated to support either opinion. I was “preaching” to those that think Tyrod actually did enough to stay here at least 1 more season and those who claim his stats justify it. ( the guy who tried to mock me)
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Zebrastripes said: Not being snarky by asking this I'm just curious to where you found these stats from? They are super detailed and i2d like to take a deeper look into them. Math was involved. Pro-football-reference, look up the team and the season Pass or rush attempts/(pass attempts + rush attempts). The point is to get a apples-to-apples comparison of how much a given offense relies on the pass vs the run, without bringing in number of punts etc.
BringBackOrton Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 1 hour ago, NoSaint said: Sometimes we overthink the hell out of it all... when a guy regularly comes up short of the minimum, and rarely puts on a good showing.... well... yea, maybe he has bad receivers or mediocre protection but at least once in awhile you’d hope to at least see it flash with a big passing day. TT is a limited passer. That can win you some games still, and maybe even a ring if he gets hot at the right time with a great defense ala a guy like Flacco..... but you can look at those stats and say he’s not going to be THE guy I feel like I've talked about this a lot, but how often you get hot matters and how hot you get matters. Flacco had a few games every year or every other year where he looked like he was the best QB in the league. TT never has. That's why Flacco got the big bucks and TT is a career backup/fringe starter. 11 hours ago, grb said: You know, I understand why you say that. It's what everyone else around here is saying, so it has to be true, right? However, what happens when you actually look? We can't use 2016. Watkins spent half the season on injured reserve / half playing on a broken left foot (with Woods also injured about half the year as well) So let's compare 2015 Taylor, vs 2017 Goff : Sammy Watkins : 2015 : 60 recp, 1047 yds, 17.5 ypc, 9 tds Sammy Watkins : 2017 : 39 recp, 593 yds, 15.2 ypc, 8 tds Robert Woods : 2015 : 47 recp, 552 yds, 11.7 ypc, 3 tds Robert Woods : 2017 : 56 recp, 781 yds, 13.9 ypc, 5 tds So then we do the obvious, and compare Taylor vs Goff re W&W : W&W : 2015 : 107 recp, 1599 yds, 14.94 ypc, 12 tds W&W : 2017 : 95 recp, 1374 yds, 14.46 ypc, 13 tds Not the numbers you expected to see, amirite? Do you mind adding Goodwin? I think you see a 700 yard difference, but not in the way you'd want. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 48 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Which is why many say stats lie. QBR is just bad. I'm not sure it's even properly characterized as a stat: there are a number of what are essentially 'opinions' about the importance of different plays at different points in the game, how much pressure a QB is under etc. folded into it. " Unlike the NFL passer rating, ESPN has not yet been forthcoming on the exact specific formulas and procedures to calculate QBR.[7] The proprietary, complex methodology spans some 10,000 lines of code" (that's after various assessments off film are folded into it) 48 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: I was “preaching” to those that think Tyrod actually did enough to stay here at least 1 more season and those who claim his stats justify it. I think purely on an offensive output basis, Tyrod could arguably the better choice here for 1 more season. Looked at objectively,AJM to date (while a better pocket QB) had similar passing production in his limited NFL games, and lacks the run contributions of Taylor. I think the Bills moved on for a number of factors beyond pure offensive output, and I'm OK with that choice. Sometimes "good" (or average, or mediocre, or whatever word one prefers) is the enemy of "great" IOW one has to risk possibly taking a drop in performance in order to set up for an improvement.
Zebrastripes Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Math was involved. Pro-football-reference, look up the team and the season Pass or rush attempts/(pass attempts + rush attempts). The point is to get a apples-to-apples comparison of how much a given offense relies on the pass vs the run, without bringing in number of punts etc. Ok thank you I was just wondering if there was a site with all the math done already just for a quick reference.
Big Gun Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: You're correct. As Zebra said, Taylor regressed over three seasons as a starter. Yes he had a coaching change in there, but still, his first season as a starter should not have been the best, by far, of the three. By season three he should have been making plays that made a difference to the team, and we weren't seeing them. Four seasons on the bench plus three starting should have added up to more. Yup, and this suggests he took the league by storm and opponents didn't know how to stop him in 2015. He was figured out somewhat in 2016 Then figured out even more in 2017 I expect he'll get even more shut down in 2018. IMO of course.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Zebrastripes said: Ok thank you I was just wondering if there was a site with all the math done already just for a quick reference. If you find one LMK...I think some of the pay-for-value sites have it.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 (edited) ...unfortunately, the passing game was never going to become a viable offensive threat, particularly downfield.......nor was it a reasonable expectation that he could put this club on his back and win games with an attacking passing offense to bail out the stalled running game....5 seconds or less to work with ain't easy for the majority (Steve Young eloquently said, "MORE collegians fail versus succeed at the NFL level due to the speed and complexity of the game..").....NOT ONE DOUBT this kid's heart and ethic were in the right place, but that scant 5 seconds or less was an inherent weakness.....doesn't have a damn thing to do with stats.......... Edited June 3, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 1 minute ago, PeterGriffin said: Yup, and this suggests he took the league by storm and opponents didn't know how to stop him in 2015. He was figured out somewhat in 2016 Then figured out even more in 2017 I expect he'll get even more shut down in 2018. IMO of course. I see it a bit differently. GRo tried to "progress the offense" in 2016 by putting in more plays/more passing offense and it stumbled; simplifying it under ALynn helped, but Taylor was hampered by WR injuries. This past year, I think we were trying to run a blocking scheme and run game that didn't suit our OL and a passing game that Taylor couldn't execute, and Dennison was slow both to adjust to what the opponents D was doing within games, and painfully slow to adapt his offense to what our guys could actually do. But we'll see what happens in Cleveland. I don't think Taylor will do very well under Haley myself, but it's possible Haley might have learned something.
Shaw66 Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: QBR is just bad. I'm not sure it's even properly characterized as a stat: there are a number of what are essentially 'opinions' about the importance of different plays at different points in the game, how much pressure a QB is under etc. folded into it. " Unlike the NFL passer rating, ESPN has not yet been forthcoming on the exact specific formulas and procedures to calculate QBR.[7] The proprietary, complex methodology spans some 10,000 lines of code" (that's after various assessments off film are folded into it) I like the passer rating. The best QBs have thw best passer rating, and the mediocre qbs, like Taylor, are 10 to 15 points lower. The stat correlates well.
Zebrastripes Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: If you find one LMK...I think some of the pay-for-value sites have it. Will do thanks again
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I see it a bit differently. GRo tried to "progress the offense" in 2016 by putting in more plays/more passing offense and it stumbled; simplifying it under ALynn helped, but Taylor was hampered by WR injuries. This past year, I think we were trying to run a blocking scheme and run game that didn't suit our OL and a passing game that Taylor couldn't execute, and Dennison was slow both to adjust to what the opponents D was doing within games, and painfully slow to adapt his offense to what our guys could actually do. But we'll see what happens in Cleveland. I don't think Taylor will do very well under Haley myself, but it's possible Haley might have learned something. ...pretty typical mumblin', brumblin', stumblin', grumblin' with the QB spot at OBD, the "Mecca of QB Evaluation & Development" and the patchwork gang of misfits post Polian......Fitz, the well traveled journeyman, was signed to SOLELY back up "Bambi" Edwards who was already cemented in as the starter...Nix drafted EJ as 2nd fiddle to Gnome after their workout & interview with him....so we sign the FIVE+ times concussed Kolb to be his vet presence, brilliant!....and the "Mat Attack" ensued....raw as tartare EJ gets thrown to the wolves with ZERO confidence, NONE.....moving on, we cut Cassel and Roman goes ballistic internally at OBD....so how much of an effort did he REALLY put forth in working with TT?...maybe that's why Wrecks fired him because TT was his guy.....and I STILL think there was no luvfest between Dennison and TT...some game plans exploited TT's wheels whereas others were WTF head scratchers....despite my long winded yap, trying to say we have NEVER come close to having a relatively normal environment for a QB to develop in....sure as hell hope McBeane/McD/McDaboll get it right even if Allen doesn't materialize.... 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: .....despite my long winded yap, trying to say we have NEVER come close to having a relatively normal environment for a QB to develop in....sure as hell hope McBeane/McD/McDaboll get it right even if Allen doesn't materialize.... Hear, hear!
Doc Brown Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, PeterGriffin said: Yup, and this suggests he took the league by storm and opponents didn't know how to stop him in 2015. He was figured out somewhat in 2016 Then figured out even more in 2017 I expect he'll get even more shut down in 2018. IMO of course. I was about to make this same point. When defenses kept him inside the pocket and made him be a quarterback he often struggled. He kind of reminded me of Flutie on that regard. If teams get pressure from the DE's and assigned an athletic LB as a QB spy you saw a lot of three and outs.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Hear, hear! if you believe the media, better get your rosary beads out......
Big Gun Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: This. People seem to think the Bills won inspite of Tyrod last season. It's just not the case. 2800 yards and 14 TDs boy oh boy was he a catalyst last year.
reddogblitz Posted June 3, 2018 Posted June 3, 2018 11 hours ago, grb said: Context !!! After all, a feature running back averaging 27.3 yards at 1.82 yards a carry over six games of a season might fail to meet your lofty standards. McCoy's ypc dropped 1.4 from 2016.
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