How many starts will rookie first-round QBs get?

[Saxum]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/how-many-starts-will-rookie-first-round-qbs-get-heres-how-the-lines-should-be-set/

And yes CBS I do have an ad blocker enabled.  That by having it prevents the autoplay of videos which often have nothing to do with story is a bonus.

 

 

Jason La Canfora Conjecture:

Josh Allen, Bills

Draft selection: 7th overall
Where I'd set the over/under for starts: 9 games 

One betting site I checked had Allen with the lowest odds of all rookie quarterbacks to start Week 1 (+150), with Mayfield next (+250). I wouldn't list them in that order – I would have Josh Rosen, not Mayfield, second – but I agree Allen is likely to see the field first. AJ McCarron doesn't merit a particularly long leash as the de facto starter and he isn't making nearly as much money and doesn't have nearly the pedigree of the guys the other rookie QBs are staring up at on their depth charts. I could certainly see Allen getting his shot by October and playing more than half the season. And once that process starts I would figure the Bills let him take his lumps and ride it out. I'd lean to the over in this instance after all of the machinations the Bills made to finally get to the point to draft him.

[jr1]

if you draft a guy that high he should start all 16

[HOUSE]

I do believe he will play some in preseason. Maybe some clean up during the season

 

Should he start any games this is probably a bad sign, 2 other QB's tanked

[Augie]

I think it’s way too soon to have an opinion, since, you know......we haven’t seen him play a down in a Bills uniform. I hope it’s less that 9 as I want him to get acclimated to improve his chance of success, but also because I pray AJ tears it up and gets us some high picks in return. In summary, it’s too soon for a wise person to answer, so I answered.   ?

Edited May 30, 2018 by Augie

[SouthNYfan]

17 minutes ago, jr1 said:

if you draft a guy that high he should start all 16

 

Jared Goff says otherwise.

So do Philip Rivers and Eli Manning.

Some guys are day 1 starters, and only need to develop in game skills.

Other guys just aren't ready week one, and are instead adjusting some fundamental stuff before they get thrown to the wolves and reinforce bad habits.

 

[billsfan89]

Mayfield - 6 starts 

Rosen - 12 starts

Darnold -5 starts 

Allen - 6 starts 

Jackson - 0-1 starts

 

That's my prediction, I think Tyrod holds down the Browns job until they at mathmatically out, I think Tyrod gets them to 3-7 or 2-8 and then they pull the rip chord on Mayfield once the season is lost. Rosen I think gets a lot of starts simply because Bradford will likely get hurt. I think the Jets get McCown to 11 games before their season is completely shot and then the hand it over to Darnold. Lamar Jackson isn't likely to start since I think that the Ravens will likely be competitive late in the season and I can only maybe see him getting 1-2 starts. 

 

Allen is interesting. I think the Bills season 10 games in might not be lost (something like 4-6 or 5-5) but McD doesn't seem like the type of coach afraid of a bold move. If the offense is sputtering and the season seems like it is slipping I think they can turn to a rookie QB deep in the season to try and jump start the offense. 

[SouthNYfan]

14 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Mayfield - 6 starts 

Rosen - 12 starts

Darnold -5 starts 

Allen - 6 starts 

Jackson - 0-1 starts

 

That's my prediction, I think Tyrod holds down the Browns job until they at mathmatically out, I think Tyrod gets them to 3-7 or 2-8 and then they pull the rip chord on Mayfield once the season is lost. Rosen I think gets a lot of starts simply because Bradford will likely get hurt. I think the Jets get McCown to 11 games before their season is completely shot and then the hand it over to Darnold. Lamar Jackson isn't likely to start since I think that the Ravens will likely be competitive late in the season and I can only maybe see him getting 1-2 starts. 

 

Allen is interesting. I think the Bills season 10 games in might not be lost (something like 4-6 or 5-5) but McD doesn't seem like the type of coach afraid of a bold move. If the offense is sputtering and the season seems like it is slipping I think they can turn to a rookie QB deep in the season to try and jump start the offense. 

 

I feel like this happened with a guy recently...

With unfavorable results.. 

His name rhymes with "pathan neeterman"...

Edited May 30, 2018 by SouthNYfan

[HOUSE]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

Mayfield - 6 starts 

Rosen - 12 starts

Darnold -5 starts 

Allen - 6 starts 

Jackson - 0-1 starts

 

That's my prediction, I think Tyrod holds down the Browns job until they at mathmatically out, I think Tyrod gets them to 3-7 or 2-8 and then they pull the rip chord on Mayfield once the season is lost. Rosen I think gets a lot of starts simply because Bradford will likely get hurt. I think the Jets get McCown to 11 games before their season is completely shot and then the hand it over to Darnold. Lamar Jackson isn't likely to start since I think that the Ravens will likely be competitive late in the season and I can only maybe see him getting 1-2 starts. 

 

Allen is interesting. I think the Bills season 10 games in might not be lost (something like 4-6 or 5-5) but McD doesn't seem like the type of coach afraid of a bold move. If the offense is sputtering and the season seems like it is slipping I think they can turn to a rookie QB deep in the season to try and jump start the offense. 

 

LOL, I think Buffalo fans are in for a big, big let down. Jackson & Allen are projects.  If you truly like this guy as fine wine, let him age a little bit

 

Mayfield - 2

Rosen - 10

Darnold -16

Allen - 0

Jackson - 5

[billspro]

Allen- 14

Darnold- 14

Rosen- 9

Mayfield - 6

Jackson- 2

[8-8 Forever?]

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Having a writer talking about one of our players going down with an injury makes me want to to take a huge dump on his lawn......

go on ahead.   bills offseason is always all about writers pooping on them, so it only seems fair.... wouldn't surprise me at all they have the kid ready to go by September.  

[Boca BIlls]

McCoy gets a 3-5 b.c the guy predicts an injury... WTF this isn't what a writer is supposed to do when grading ****. You can't add in "what if's" b.c you can always make something worse. You need to assume a full 16 games and go from there. 

 

It's things like that most writers forget about to leave out their "What if's" when grading how good a unit or player. You need to go into it looking at 16 games of production, not 9 b.c you think he will be hurt for 7.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[Jay_Fixit]

I’m terrible at guessing, so I’ll guess...

 

Rosen - 12 (Bradford...more like BradfLOLd right)?

Allen - 8 (McCarron/Peterman...more like McCarrLOL/PetLOLman right?)

Mayfield - 9 (Tyrod Taylor...more like Tyrod TayLOL right?)

Darnold - 7 (McCown...more like McCLOWN right?)

Jackson - 1 

 

 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, THE SLAMMER said:

 

LOL, I think Buffalo fans are in for a big, big let down. Jackson & Allen are projects.  If you truly like this guy as fine wine, let him age a little bit

 

Mayfield - 2

Rosen - 10

Darnold -16

Allen - 0

Jackson - 5

 

It should be 0 starts, I agree. Allen needs at least 1 year to simply learn how to be a pro and work on his fundamentals. Probably better he sits 2 years since Allen is a massive project. 

 

But considering the aggressive move this coach made with Nathan !@#$ing Peterman when Tyrod was a competent starter (Everyone loves to **** on Tyrod but every NFL caliber receiver he had to throw to was traded away or hurt, not saying Tyrod was good but he was far from horrible) it would not surprise me if this coaching staff rushes in Allen. 

 

Putting Allen behind a probably bad O-line with hardly anyone to throw to isn't going to help his development either. If Allen starts the last game or two that's one thing but any more than that and it could actually stunt his development. 

[artmalibu]

Its hard to say how many games Allen should play.   If the offense doesnt ask the QB to do a lot with a heavy run first attack throwing him in wont be bad.  If I recall correct Big Ben was not asked to carry the team the first year he started.   

[McNubbins]

0, as long as this guy is healthy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6WSIHa5Keg

[TroutDog]

6 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

It's not the focus of the article.  Just a possible outcome briefly mentioned by the author given the number of carries over the years and the age.  Hopefully it doesn't happen. 

Still seems odd, though. Shady was one only the best backs in the league last year and give us a 3/5 because of something he’s guessing may happen? While it could, it should not effect the grade in my opinion. 

[Lfod]

Shady has been blessed by the football Gods. I wouldn't bet money on him being injured. I do realize it can happen. The team shouldn't be so dependant on him anyway. That leads to having boxes stacked or whatever so regardless other players need to contribute to the production or it won't matter. 

 

Run heavy is ok, run only is just bad. Shady should be a bullet in the chamber not the only weapon the team has at it's disposal. That's what makes me believe he could be injured. When you run the guy through a defense that is completely keyed in on him. 

Edited May 31, 2018 by Lfod