transplantbillsfan Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) On 5/29/2018 at 1:30 AM, Rochesterfan said: I think this is right and what I see as hilarious is that this is the exact opposite of TT as Bills QB. We will see what the future holds. I just find it funny that guys that defended TT had a ton of positive stats to point to and very few negative stats. He had a good completion percentage and TD to Int rate, but there were times watching him you could just tell he was not going to get it done. Now we have the exact opposite situation- Josh puts up very pedestrian numbers, but when you watch him you can see something special. Now many posters that were all aboard the numbers of TT are now having to switch to defending Josh Allen based on what you can see and feel, while guys that killed TT because of how he looked are now trying to kill Josh Allen based upon stats. The fan base has done a total 180 and we still have no idea if either model - stats or eye test is better. It's not exactly a 180 as much as it is understanding the inadequacy of PFF as an evaluation of college prospects. I think "Prospect" is the operative word, because it's a word with implications all about the future, not the present. PFF is good (not perfect, but good) for discussing the efficiency and effectiveness of a QB's play now, in the present, but it's not good in terms of projecting something like a college QB into a completely new environment surrounded by completely different talent playing against completely different competition in the future. So this whole podcast discussion thing is probably pretty accurate in terms of discussing Josh Allen as a College QB when the College Football season ended. But that's what it's limited to. It puts 100% value in the plays made on the field in college and evaluates them as they are right there at that moment. That's great if you're a college football fan and you want to examine how effective your QB is for your favorite college football team right now. But that's not what the draft is about and it's the entire reason that during the offseason you have the Senior Bowl to the Combine to Pro-Days to Private Workouts to etc. It's also the reason that a lot of GMs send their underlings out to get intel from friends, family, acquaintances, coaches, etc. The play on the field in college does matter, to some degree, but it's a significantly more gray area than it is in the NFL, where PFF's evaluation works because it's merely evaluating the play of those guys in the here and now, and that's significantly more important (if not solely important) because who gives a crap about the other stuff as long as he can come and play on Sundays? I really can't speak for anyone else, but I haven't done a 180 myself. I think PFF is interesting and can be useful, but not as much in terms of an apples to apples translation of how a QB is in college equaling how a QB will be in the NFL, which is pretty much all they seem to do without factoring in anything other than the results (or near results) of all the plays in college in terms of the football itself... where it begins and where it ends. Eye test matters and so do stats. But stats carry a heavier weight in the here and now of the NFL and the eye test carries a heavier weight in the projection of college prospects transitioning from the college game to the NFL. Edited May 31, 2018 by transplantbillsfan
cba fan Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 9 hours ago, THE SLAMMER said: It comes down to this... Who do you trust more, PFF or Brandon Beane? A 3rd chair at the table(who receives a cup of coffee) with a completely different view. Example: I like Josh Rosen but he will have trouble with injuries in the NFL, a player on the sidelines is useless. Example: I like Baker Mayfield but his cockiness & overall size was a huge drawback for us....to many batted down passes & locker room confrontations I trust Brandon Beane over PFF, we will see..... I don't trust anyone(guys) who wears girl length arm sleeves. It makes me uncomfortable for reasons I can not explain. Two working together is truly "bone-chillin" Edited May 31, 2018 by cba fan
oldmanfan Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 Don't care if they're good, bad or indifferent reviews. Let the boys play! Then figure it out.
Rochesterfan Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: It's not exactly a 180 as much as it is understanding the inadequacy of PFF as an evaluation of college prospects. I think "Prospect" is the operative word, because it's a word with implications all about the future, not the present. PFF is good (not perfect, but good) for discussing the efficiency and effectiveness of a QB's play now, in the present, but it's not good in terms of projecting something like a college QB into a completely new environment surrounded by completely different talent playing against completely different competition in the future. So this whole podcast discussion thing is probably pretty accurate in terms of discussing Josh Allen as a College QB when the College Football season ended. But that's what it's limited to. It puts 100% value in the plays made on the field in college and evaluates them as they are right there at that moment. That's great if you're a college football fan and you want to examine how effective your QB is for your favorite college football team right now. But that's not what the draft is about and it's the entire reason that during the offseason you have the Senior Bowl to the Combine to Pro-Days to Private Workouts to etc. It's also the reason that a lot of GMs send their underlings out to get intel from friends, family, acquaintances, coaches, etc. The play on the field in college does matter, to some degree, but it's a significantly more gray area than it is in the NFL, where PFF's evaluation works because it's merely evaluating the play of those guys in the here and now, and that's significantly more important (if not solely important) because who gives a crap about the other stuff as long as he can come and play on Sundays? I really can't speak for anyone else, but I haven't done a 180 myself. I think PFF is interesting and can be useful, but not as much in terms of an apples to apples translation of how a QB is in college equaling how a QB will be in the NFL, which is pretty much all they seem to do without factoring in anything other than the results (or near results) of all the plays in college in terms of the football itself... where it begins and where it ends. Eye test matters and so do stats. But stats carry a heavier weight in the here and now of the NFL and the eye test carries a heavier weight in the projection of college prospects transitioning from the college game to the NFL. I was not specifically thinking of you, but let’s talk a bit about that. I believe prior to the draft you started a specific thread about not drafting Josh Allen thread and several of his stats were used in the threads to prove your point. I will not pull the specifics, but I believe there were quotes along the lines of “he is being drafted because of how he looks not based upon the production on the field and therefore these guys nearly always bust.” Now you have gone back and watched “film” and have convinced yourself that he can be successful based eye test in college - even though the stats pre draft suggested to you he would bust. To me that is a total 180 degree change. I believe you even stated you threw your flip phone and the Bills were safe because you hated the pick in the draft thread. Look - I totally agree the PFF numbers in college mean nothing for projecting to the NFL because they will be totally switching offenses and personnel and because the style of offenses and the skill level of teammates is so different - you can’t even legitimately use the numbers to compare the different prospects. I just do not expect that Josh Allen is going to put up certain numbers in the NFL that are going to be better than TT for example. His TD to Int rate almost certainly will be worse and his completion percentage will be lower, but I think you will see an urgency, ability, and plays that are going to make TT a distant memory. The difficulty will be guys that love to praise the Bills QB (forgive me Transplant, but you are 1 of these going back to Edwards I believe) will point out the positive things he will be doing on the field because the stats most likely will not compare favorably to TT, while those that want to poop on everything the Bills do at QB will be pointing to the stats he produces and how they are a step below a guy like TT a guy they ran out of town. Obviously this is just my opinion, but it is how I see it will play out. I myself am hoping he puts up both production and stats and therefore we have a winner, but much as I was with TT - I want to see how he plays out to make a decision. I think long term he has the ability to be a stud and I love his attitude and talent - so we will see. Edited May 31, 2018 by Rochesterfan
SoTier Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said: I was not specifically thinking of you, but let’s talk a bit about that. I believe prior to the draft you started a specific thread about not drafting Josh Allen thread and several of his stats were used in the threads to prove your point. I will not pull the specifics, but I believe there were quotes along the lines of “he is being drafted because of how he looks not based upon the production on the field and therefore these guys nearly always bust.” Now you have gone back and watched “film” and have convinced yourself that he can be successful based eye test in college - even though the stats pre draft suggested to you he would bust. To me that is a total 180 degree change. I believe you even stated you threw your flip phone and the Bills were safe because you hated the pick in the draft thread. Look - I totally agree the PFF numbers in college mean nothing for projecting to the NFL because they will be totally switching offenses and personnel and because the style of offenses and the skill level of teammates is so different - you can’t even legitimately use the numbers to compare the different prospects. I just do not expect that Josh Allen is going to put up certain numbers in the NFL that are going to be better than TT for example. His TD to Int rate almost certainly will be worse and his completion percentage will be lower, but I think you will see an urgency, ability, and plays that are going to make TT a distant memory. The difficulty will be guys that love to praise the Bills QB (forgive me Transplant, but you are #1 in this going back to Edwards I believe) will point out the positive things he will be doing on the field because the stats most likely will not compare favorably to TT, while those that want to poop on everything the Bills do at QB will be pointing to the stats he produces and how they are a step below a guy like TT a guy they ran out of town. Obviously this is just my opinion, but it is how I see it will play out. I myself am hoping he puts up both production and stats and therefore we have a winner, but much as I was with TT - I want to see how he plays out to make a decision. I think long term he has the ability to be a stud and I love his attitude and talent - so we will see. I think that the arguments over "production" for Allen -- or any QB -- will occur if he fails to clearly take command of the team and take it to wins using his arm and leadership so that the team wins regularly and makes the playoffs consistently. Who's the best QB among Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, and Cam Newton? I think most posters would pick Newton even if his stats aren't nearly as good as Dalton's or Tannehill's for most of his career. Controversies over a QB's stats occurs when there's general dissatisfaction with how the team performs, even when that performance may not be the QB's fault (like the Bills likely having a suspect OL and WR corps in 2018 or a crappy defense like they had in 2016). How many Packer fans complained about Favre's propensity to throw INTs? Edited May 31, 2018 by SoTier
transplantbillsfan Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: I was not specifically thinking of you, but let’s talk a bit about that. I believe prior to the draft you started a specific thread about not drafting Josh Allen thread and several of his stats were used in the threads to prove your point. I will not pull the specifics, but I believe there were quotes along the lines of “he is being drafted because of how he looks not based upon the production on the field and therefore these guys nearly always bust.” Now you have gone back and watched “film” and have convinced yourself that he can be successful based eye test in college - even though the stats pre draft suggested to you he would bust. To me that is a total 180 degree change. I believe you even stated you threw your flip phone and the Bills were safe because you hated the pick in the draft thread. Look - I totally agree the PFF numbers in college mean nothing for projecting to the NFL because they will be totally switching offenses and personnel and because the style of offenses and the skill level of teammates is so different - you can’t even legitimately use the numbers to compare the different prospects. I just do not expect that Josh Allen is going to put up certain numbers in the NFL that are going to be better than TT for example. His TD to Int rate almost certainly will be worse and his completion percentage will be lower, but I think you will see an urgency, ability, and plays that are going to make TT a distant memory. The difficulty will be guys that love to praise the Bills QB (forgive me Transplant, but you are 1 of these going back to Edwards I believe) will point out the positive things he will be doing on the field because the stats most likely will not compare favorably to TT, while those that want to poop on everything the Bills do at QB will be pointing to the stats he produces and how they are a step below a guy like TT a guy they ran out of town. Obviously this is just my opinion, but it is how I see it will play out. I myself am hoping he puts up both production and stats and therefore we have a winner, but much as I was with TT - I want to see how he plays out to make a decision. I think long term he has the ability to be a stud and I love his attitude and talent - so we will see. My 180 is with regard to Josh Allen, yes. Absolutely. It wasn't just stats so much as historical trends where a combination of his poor college production at a small school against crappy competition is a historical lack of success for those guys in the NFL when drafted in the 1st or 2nd round. I was under the impression from your post I responded to that when you were talking about the 180 that everyone is doing in terms of the importance of stats vs the importance of eye test. And you brought in the Taylor supporters doing a complete 180 because of their love of stats and their now seeming dismissal of them. Is that not the 180 you were referring to there? If it is, again, that's not me, and I bet it's fewer posters than you claimed. Edited May 31, 2018 by transplantbillsfan
BuffaloBillsGospel Posted May 31, 2018 Posted May 31, 2018 It's funny, when PFF criticizes our team many blow off PFF as being a sham yet the same posters use them when trying to prove a point. I get the criticism with Josh Allen but Tremaine Edmunds was robbery, so was harrison Phillips, they were both projected to be gone where they went, Phillips was a projected late 1st, mid 2nd round prospect.
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