A Bone-Chilling Draft Review

[8-8 Forever?]

well, I think McBeanes killed the draft;     well, there's one more nation heard from ; 4 starters from this draft by this time next year.  that's a good draft

Edited May 29, 2018 by 8-8 Forever?

[Rochesterfan]

8 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Statistically, Allen is not great and people who don’t like him can go to stats and metrics all they want 

 

but when you take the whole situation and then look at The body of his work you see why he is a High first rounder. His athleticism for his size is unreal, coupled with his big arm and smooth release and coaches definitely would like to work with him 

 

 

I think this is right and what I see as hilarious is that this is the exact opposite of TT as Bills QB.  We will see what the future holds.

 

I just find it funny that guys that defended TT had a ton of positive stats to point to and very few negative stats.  He had a good completion percentage and TD to Int rate, but there were times watching him you could just tell he was not going to get it done.

 

Now we have the exact opposite situation- Josh puts up very pedestrian numbers, but when you watch him you can see something special.  

 

Now many posters that were all aboard the numbers of TT are now having to switch to defending Josh Allen based on what you can see and feel, while guys that killed TT because of how he looked are now trying to kill Josh Allen based upon stats.

 

The fan base has done a total 180 and we still have no idea if either model - stats or eye test is better.

[tumaro02]

Garbage in = Garbage out... So what exactly is the difference in % from Watson 38.8 and Allen 37.7 even if you believe their garbage?  1.1%?  Wow that is huuuuugggeeeee! LOL.

[nucci]

Bone chilling?

[TC in St. Louis]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Bone chilling?

 

Yes.  This is "The Shining" of draft analyses.  I think these two spend all their time memorizing information on every player who ever put on pads so that they can justify their programming.  They hedge every bet.  Bills draft is lousy, but if the players turn out to be good, it's a home run.  

 

If they didn't love Josh Allen, they wouldn't have drafted him.  Tremaine looks like a great pick to me.  I loved that they got Harrison Phillips.  I don't know jack about the rest of them, except the lineman from VTech looks like a great pick.  And I always liked Proehl's dad.  

 

Trust the process, not these two no-nothings.  If they knew what they were talking about they'd be scouts.

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, TC in St. Louis said:

 

Yes.  This is "The Shining" of draft analyses.  I think these two spend all their time memorizing information on every player who ever put on pads so that they can justify their programming.  They hedge every bet.  Bills draft is lousy, but if the players turn out to be good, it's a home run.  

 

If they didn't love Josh Allen, they wouldn't have drafted him.  Tremaine looks like a great pick to me.  I loved that they got Harrison Phillips.  I don't know jack about the rest of them, except the lineman from VTech looks like a great pick.  And I always liked Proehl's dad.  

 

Trust the process, not these two no-nothings.  If they knew what they were talking about they'd be scouts.

I concur. Bills picked some very good players. 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Bone chilling?

Well...you know its gotta have that LAMP shocking effect

[hondo in seattle]

Does PFF have any kind of track record using analytics on college players to accurately predict NFL performance?

[blacklabel]

On 5/28/2018 at 1:45 PM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...wasn't it PFF who voted Miller as the 2nd most improved in 2016 which many have torched?......are they reliable or does anybody care?.....

 

Right you are on Miller. They had him ranked near the bottom for his rookie year but lauded his performance in 2016.

 

They are reliable to a degree. They certainly are not the be-all end-all on statistics and analysis. They've gained popularity for the different types of analysis and measuring they've created but I've always taken their stuff with a grain of salt. They can watch all the film they want and identify what they may label a negative play but they have no idea what assignments each player has on any given play. 

 

I don't recall exactly which season it was, but it wasn't too long ago. Aaron Rodgers caught fire in the second half of a game to lead GB to a comeback win. It was agreed by many that Rodgers was the primary reason the Packers won that game. The next day, PFF slapped a negative grade on Rodgers' performance and tried to justify it with a lengthy blog post. To me, it really just came off as them trying to be different for the sake of being different, which really is what a lot of sites/bloggers/analysts/writers do in order to generate interest and clicks. "What's the census opinion here? OK, lemme express the polar opposite of that opinion and call myself an expert." Granted, it's fine to have opposing viewpoints but come up with a better reason for having those viewpoints other than being the guy with the "controversial" take. 

 

Also, this thread title is misleading... my bones are not chilled at all. 

Edited May 29, 2018 by blacklabel

[Rigotz]

On 5/28/2018 at 1:35 PM, GreggTX said:

It seems the folks at PFF don't think very highly of our draft at all. Your response?

 

The Bills review starts at about 2:45 in from the start.

 

 

 

This just in: Josh Allen's stats in college were not that great!

 

Hot take.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Well...you know its gotta have that LAMP shocking effect

The lamp from 'A Christmas Story'?

[BILLS 4 EVER]

you forgot to add the "R" at the end of the first word in your title.  I was getting excited about Allen until you came along.

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm not going to discredit PFF with regard to their evaluation of NFL players. I think they have a generally interesting system as far as that goes. And although that system is not without its flaws, it is evaluating players performance already in the NFL. Like it's here and now. It's not about projecting.

 

It seems like they just tend to use the same system they use in the NFL to evaluate college players, which is incredibly problematic considering drafting college players is entirely about projections. I'm not saying that college play doesn't matter. It does. And I actually have shared the same concerns about Allen based on his college performance as PFF brings up here.

 

If you're going by historical tendencies or college production, Alan will absolutely not have success in the NFL. However, he's also going to be the ultimate test subject of scouting versus Analytics and personally, having really dived deep into his personal background and upbringing and late-blooming physical stature and work ethic and simply watching tons of his college passes and thinking he looks like a natural passer of the football and so on, I think we can throw their college evaluation out the window.

 

They felt almost exactly the same way about the Edmunds pick as they did the Allen pick. 

 

So even they acknowledge (and kinda cover their butts) that the Bills were drafting clearly on potential, which contradicts a little of what Beane said post-draft in his apparent criticism of the media presenting Allen as "raw."

[JESSEFEFFER]

I would maintain that is impossible to isolate a QB's performance from the offense that surrounds him based solely on numbers.  Production numbers always need context.   The most telling is the slip in ypa which is mostly connected to the players that left Wyoming's offense after the 2016 season.  If Allen had a similar year in 2017, I doubt the Bills could have drafted him at #7.   Scouts can attempt to put that in context by film review in conjunction with talking to his coaches.  PFF can't do that.  The numbers say he got "worse" and the context might suggest that he improved.

[Mango]

People have a tendency to discredit data and statistics because they are looking for a binary answer. Yes or no. But that’s not what a deep dive into data really does. The probability of Allen being great with his college numbers is low. Doesn’t mean he won’t be a worthy starting QB. 

[K-9]

On 5/29/2018 at 9:02 AM, nucci said:

Bone chilling?

I keep hearing that guy who used to do the voice overs for horror movie trailers. 

 

“The 2018 Buffalo Bills thought it was just a draft like any other...until it all went wrong. Very...very... wrong. A draft so full of unspeakable horror and blood curdling mayhem, you have to remind yourself, “it’s only a draft, it’s only a draft, it’s only a draft.”

[Stank_Nasty]

so phillips graded out really well on their scale last year but then he's a reach in the draft at the tail end of the third? how exactly are we supposed to value their formula or grades when they don't do it themselves.... something doesn't jive there.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 5/29/2018 at 6:15 AM, 8-8 Forever? said:

well, I think McBeanes killed the draft;     well, there's one more nation heard from ; 4 starters from this draft by this time next year.  that's a good draft

 

Who your 4th? The corner? 

On 5/29/2018 at 9:02 AM, nucci said:

Bone chilling?

 

23 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Well...you know its gotta have that LAMP shocking effect

 

Would you have been as compelled by ‘slighty  skin cooling?’ 

[HOUSE]

It comes down to this...

Who do you trust more, PFF or Brandon Beane?

 A  3rd chair at the table(who receives a cup of coffee) with a completely different view.

 

Example: I like Josh Rosen but he will have trouble with injuries in the NFL, a player on the sidelines is useless.

 

Example: I like Baker Mayfield but his cockiness & overall size was a huge drawback for us....to many batted down passes & locker room confrontations

 

I trust Brandon Beane over PFF, we will see.....

[SoTier]

On 5/28/2018 at 4:57 PM, THE SLAMMER said:

is a collection of highly motivated young players. Brandon Beane prefers work ethic over elite skills. I like it so far

 

 

Y'know, the last time I heard a Bills team described this way was when Jauron had those god-awful boring 7-9 losing groups, and the 2018 Bills resemble those talent-deprived squads far too much for my liking.  Sorry, but motivation, youth, and work ethic are not substitutes for talent, and good coaching can only go so far in making up the talent deficit.  Perennial playoff/Super Bowl contenders aren't that way because they're filled with hard working players with modest talent; they're filled with lots of very talented players on both sides of the ball.

 

On 5/28/2018 at 5:06 PM, THE SLAMMER said:

 

Brandon Beane rarely misses on his later round selections. Some how some way they contribute. The Bills should be in the running for the playoffs again.

The National media is slow to observe how this guy works. He basically drafts farm boys....lol

 

Brandon Beane has proven squat.  He's run exactly 1 draft, and none of those players have played in an NFL game that counts yet.  His trades yielded mostly draft picks.  HIs FA acquisitions have yet to play for the Bills in NFL games that count just like his draft picks.

Edited May 30, 2018 by SoTier