What are YOUR expectations if Allen wins the start?

[Rob's House]

3 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Are you referring to JA or NP?

 

Or both? 

 

I was thinking of JA, but I don't think any less of NP for the Chargers game. I never hold out much hope for a 5th rd pick, but I think he has as good a chance as any 5th rd QB of being good.

[Mr_Robotulism]

3-13

[BB@Shooter]

2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Are you referring to JA or NP?

 

Or both? 

 

The thread is asking if Allen starts? So it is natural to assume he meant Allen. But not when one has an agenda I guess.

[Kemp]

On 5/26/2018 at 2:47 PM, BUFFALOBART said:

I expect that in 2-3 years time, Allen will be stellar!

 

In 2-3 years, I expect he will no longer be a Bill.

[stuvian]

if he legitimately wins the start for football reasons we should embrace it. I'd expect some spectacular ad lib plays and some rough patches due to trying too hard to make something out of nothing. I'd also expect more scrambling than we'd like from a franchise QB. We'd have to design our playcalling so as to keep him out of 3rd and long unless we plan ongoing for it on 4th down often a la Philly. As for our record I originally expected an 11 win season which I'd lower to an 8 or 9 win call.

 

Regardless, if this unfolds our FO will need to showcase AJ to get some value out of him if its Josh from here on out.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Rob's House said:

I expect great things. Big plays, clutch plays, and a lot of turnovers. I expect turnovers of a young QB. Those are mistakes you learn from. If he slings it and makes things happen I'm more than willing to take that ride with him. If he tries too hard to play it safe I'll worry.

 

I agree within limits.  Rookies do make mistakes, and trying too hard to avoid mistakes cripples a young QB, agree with you there.

I think I said elsewhere, for a rookie I just want to see more TD than INT (not in any one game, overall).  That to me means he's trying to make stuff happen and sometimes making mistakes, but not totally "at sea" when it comes to reading a defense.

 

If he's throwing more INT than TD overall, that could be a sign of failure to read defenses quickly enough or conversely, not enough big clutch plays.

57 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

In 2-3 years, I expect he will no longer be a Bill.

 

Pessimist much?

 

11 hours ago, Rob's House said:

I was thinking of JA, but I don't think any less of NP for the Chargers game. I never hold out much hope for a 5th rd pick, but I think he has as good a chance as any 5th rd QB of being good.

 

I do.  I'm concerned that there's a brain circuit in a young QB brain that says "don't do that" after he's thrown 2-3 picks in an half, and it's not active in Peterman hence 5 picks in one half.  I'm not saying rutabaga potatochip he's trash rutabaga potatochip shouldn't be in NFL, I'm just saying that the Chargers game raised a concern in me I didn't have before.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, BB@Shooter said:

The thread is asking if Allen starts? So it is natural to assume he meant Allen. But not when one has an agenda I guess.

An agenda?  Who me?

 

I know what the topic is and who Rob meant.

 

 If you want to say that the mention of giving all young QBs a chance and INTs are expected then it should apply to all young players.   Otherwise one would be hypocritical.  

 

Nate is a 5th round pick and in as much not expected to be a super star.   

 

As crappy as the Chargers game was, in other games Nate at least looked the part dropping back and passing and not playing sandlot football.  

 

If there is an agenda here it may be the Tyrod crowd still complaining he got dumped.  

[Kemp]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I agree within limits.  Rookies do make mistakes, and trying too hard to avoid mistakes cripples a young QB, agree with you there.

I think I said elsewhere, for a rookie I just want to see more TD than INT (not in any one game, overall).  That to me means he's trying to make stuff happen and sometimes making mistakes, but not totally "at sea" when it comes to reading a defense.

 

If he's throwing more INT than TD overall, that could be a sign of failure to read defenses quickly enough or conversely, not enough big clutch plays.

 

Pessimist much?

 

 

I do.  I'm concerned that there's a brain circuit in a young QB brain that says "don't do that" after he's thrown 2-3 picks in an half, and it's not active in Peterman hence 5 picks in one half.  I'm not saying rutabaga potatochip he's trash rutabaga potatochip shouldn't be in NFL, I'm just saying that the Chargers game raised a concern in me I didn't have before.

 

If I thought Allen was the only player I did not want the Bills to take before the draft, why should I change my mind, now? OTAs?

 

That isn't pessimism or optimism. It is consistency of thought. Those that change their evaluation of a player after their team selects or does not select him are operating irrationally.

 

Pessimism is when you get what you want and then say it was actually the wrong thing to get.

[billsfan60]

23 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

An agenda?  Who me?

 

I know what the topic is and who Rob meant.

 

 If you want to say that the mention of giving all young QBs a chance and INTs are expected then it should apply to all young players.   Otherwise one would be hypocritical.  

 

Nate is a 5th round pick and in as much not expected to be a super star.   

 

As crappy as the Chargers game was, in other games Nate at least looked the part dropping back and passing and not playing sandlot football.  

 

If there is an agenda here it may be the Tyrod crowd still complaining he got dumped.  

This is the hallmark of being a Bills fan. There are probably still folks out there saying Johnson over Flutie was the right call. 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

... Pessimism is when you get what you want and then say it was actually the wrong thing to get.

mmmm... i'm not sure but i don't think so.

[Kemp]

38 minutes ago, Foxx said:

mmmm... i'm not sure but i don't think so.

 

I will put it another way.

 

If I think Player A is garbage and my team selects him, am I a pessimist for thinking he will fail?

 

If I think Player A is good and my team selects him, and I then think he will stink, I am a pessimist.

 

It is those that change their minds on nothing other than hope that are irrational.

 

Opinions should not change unless there is new evidence presented.

 

By the way, to be a pessimist is to think nothing will ever work out. I think the Bills finally have a good coach after their worst coach, ever. The GM I liked until he made the biggest blunder of the draft by taking Allen.

 

No matter how hard or far you can throw a ball, if you can't make good decisions and accurate throws under pressure, you are almost certain to fail. When you can't perform at a high level in a second-rate college conference, I don't like your chances in the NFL.

 

Two qbs beat Allen out for best in the conference. TWO.

 

Great guy to pin the hopes of a franchise on.

[Foxx]

25 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

I will put it another way.

 

If I think Player A is garbage and my team selects him, am I a pessimist for thinking he will fail?

 

If I think Player A is good and my team selects him, and I then think he will stink, I am a pessimist.

 

It is those that change their minds on nothing other than hope that are irrational.

 

Opinions should not change unless there is new evidence presented.

 

By the way, to be a pessimist is to think nothing will ever work out. I think the Bills finally have a good coach after their worst coach, ever. The GM I liked until he made the biggest blunder of the draft by taking Allen.

 

No matter how hard or far you can throw a ball, if you can't make good decisions and accurate throws under pressure, you are almost certain to fail. When you can't perform at a high level in a second-rate college conference, I don't like your chances in the NFL.

 

Two qbs beat Allen out for best in the conference. TWO.

 

Great guy to pin the hopes of a franchise on.

oh alright, i'll bite.

 

the classic definition of pessimism is:

a tendency to see the worst aspect of things or believe that the worst will happen; a lack of hope or confidence in the future.

 

so again, i dunno, you tell me but i would say you are being pessimistic.

[BB@Shooter]

1 minute ago, Kemp said:

 

I will put it another way.

 

If I think Player A is garbage and my team selects him, am I a pessimist for thinking he will fail?

 

If I think Player A is good and my team selects him, and I then think he will stink, I am a pessimist.

 

It is those that change their minds on nothing other than hope that are irrational.

 

Opinions should not change unless there is new evidence presented.

 

By the way, to be a pessimist is to think nothing will ever work out. I think the Bills finally have a good coach after their worst coach, ever. The GM I liked until he made the biggest blunder of the draft by taking Allen.

 

No matter how hard or far you can throw a ball, if you can't make good decisions and accurate throws under pressure, you are almost certain to fail. When you can't perform at a high level in a second-rate college conference, I don't like your chances in the NFL.

 

Two qbs beat Allen out for best in the conference. TWO.

 

Great guy to pin the hopes of a franchise on.

This is where either your ignorance, or or laziness to actually research the subject is coming back to bite you in the ass. For starters Allen was the consensus qb to be the MVP. Once people saw what he had to work with and how poor our offense was they couldn't give it to him. Someone as dense as you won't try and comprehend why his numbers were what they were, so I am not even going to try and get it across to you.  Rypien is in an offense that posts big numbers every year. They have great coaching year in and out. Rypiens arm is good enough for college, but he will never be anything but a guy who is a backup in the NFL. Rypien also had to share qb duties with a grad transfer. The grad transfer beat Wyoming with his legs. Not Rypien and his arm. Allen and Wyoming were beating them at BSU going into the 4th quarter. Allen and Wyoming beat them the year before.  Harkins og BSU is one of the best coaches in FBS football.

 

I do believe the other qb to beat him out was the kid from Fresno State. Allen was hurt and never got to play against him. Fresno had a great defense, and is known for recruiting qb's.  Ever hear of the Carr brothers, Trent Diller and others? Probably not. Why should anyone take your word about the biggest mistake in the draft? What are your credentials? Other than one more goober who thinks he knows football, you have none. He throws hard? Is that the best you can do? Laughable. For a guy that doesn't have a clue to the meaning of pessimistic, I am supposed to read your garbage and believe it? When you had to go back and look up the word pessimistic,  you lost me.  How come you leave out things like his bowl game, the Senior Bowl, the combine? Because it doesn't fit your agenda. So what big word are you going to use this time that you don't know the meaning of? Try the word comprehension. Lmao.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

On 5/26/2018 at 2:44 PM, LeGOATski said:

A rough passing game.

 

Will enjoy the good with the bad.

We’re getting that regardless of who the starter is. Even if one of our QB’s step up, they’d need to have Lebron like ability to carry a team. Aside from Shady, the offense talent is almost equivalent to the Cavs supporting cast. 

Edited May 28, 2018 by DriveFor1Outta5

[26TrapDraw]

On 5/26/2018 at 12:23 PM, JoeF said:

One thing that gives me confidence about the surrounding cast is that Juan Castillo and Terry Robiskie know what NFL talent looks like at their positions.  The next three weeks of OTAs and Mini-camp will be telling.  If Castillo and/or Robiskie are in McDermott/Beane/Daboll's ear about needing an extra veteran body or two at their positions, it will get done.  Its a buyers market right now with more cuts to come. 

 

So if Allen starts I think Virgil nailed it.  He will be on the Big Ben plan.  The difference will be that Daboll will have an RPO section of the playbook that Ben didn't have and Allen is smart enough to digest RPOs and the controlled passing game.  The RPOs will have similar throws as the controlled passing game but more deception.  I think they will use the deep ball to scare the crap out of defenses early in games.  Streater (4.37), Reilly (4.42) or Proehl (4.4) will be running deep and they will throw a couple just to loosen things up.  It will be off RPO or play action to slow the rush. 

 

Allen's deep ball is like Nuke Lasloosh in Bull Durham -  the scene where Crash Davis tells Laloosh to hit the mascot on purpose and then says to the batter- "I don't know where it's going."   The offensive line will be telling the defense -- "we don't know how far he can throw it-- there are only about 150 yards of room or so inside the bowl or the practice field"

 

Despite all this, my expectations are very measured if Allen starts by week 5 or so.  The Bills will lose two or three games because we are easy to defend and/or QB errors...I am thinking out of the playoff race by week 15 or so but we will all be feeling good about the year at the end and looking forward to adding talent in the draft and FA.  We will see enough to think that Allen is not JP or EJ..but we won't be able to sign on to the notion of the second coming of Jimbo just yet.

This is about where I think it will be. Fair assessment.

[BB@Shooter]

6 minutes ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

We’re getting that regardless of who the starter is. Even if one of our QB’s step up, they’d need to have Lebron like ability to carry a team. Aside from Shady, the offense talent is almost equivalent to the Cavs supporting cast. 

If Allen wins the qb competition,  he is used to not having talent around him. Hopefully the offense suprises, and the line steps up. The receivers will be an upgrade regardless. If nothing else they catch balls thrown to them. Allen has shown he can manage a game. His last OC wouldn't give up too much control. One can't argue with the results, they got 8 wins doing it through ball control. The only losses Allen had were Iowa, Oregon, and Boise State. And the only game they were out of was the Oregon game. Right after Wyoming played Oregon they lost their qb and running back. Both will be playing on Sundays. Like Taggart or not, he put together a good team to start the season. It amazes me how many on this board want to talk football, but few understand the college game, little alone the NFL game. It is a sports board, so I guess everyone's opinion starts out the same. As much as everyone thinks they know what is going to happen,  most have no clue. I started out wanting Allen to sit and learn, but I don't know how he learns the best. It will be up to the coaching staff to figure out. Part of me wants him to play because if he doesn't, people will say he couldn't beat out a career backup. But if he does, then maybe the offense isn't ready to support a rookie qb. I feel he has the "it" factor. Time will tell.

 

I only saw one game where he lost it. Wyoming was down by 7 to Nebraska starting the 4th quarter. Allen hit a receiver in the hands that bounced off and got intercepted.  He was then down 2 scores and was trying to make something happen. He ended up forcing it and throwing a few more interceptions. It was the only time Allen let the game get away from him. And that was the 2nd game of his sophomore season. He seemed to learn a big lesson from it and has never come close to repeating it. Take it for what it is worth. I feel he learned a big lesson from it. When Allen makes mistakes, he usually doesn't make that same mistake again. He is a fast learner.

[Jay_Fixit]

I’d expect Allen to have a Derek Carr type of rookie season. Conservative play calling. Lots of short passes. 

 

3200 yards

58% Comp

20 TD’s

12 INT

 

Bills 8-8

 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 5/26/2018 at 11:46 AM, Golden Goat said:

He'll make some brilliant plays and some cringe-worthy plays, and he'll learn from them. Next year, when we'll have a boatload of money in FA, surround him with legitimate offensive threats and take the training wheels off.

the way I feel...Im not expecting the world from him year 1 other than signs of developing. Probably 5-7 wins is realistic. As you said we need to surround him with quality olineman and a better wr corp after KB. I grew up in Rosenberg but would consider relocating to Allentown as long as there's no traffic....

Edited May 28, 2018 by LABILLBACKER

[GreggTX]

His stats will be terrible and he'll take a ton of sacks. In fact, whoever is back there will take a ton of sacks. Our WR's are the league's worst at gaining separation and our OL is a horror story. On top of that, we won't be able to run well.

 

Allen will have to prove to me that his inaccuracy can be fixed. According to PFF, his accuracy even in short areas were much less accurate than most college QB's. I'm pulling for a turnaround there, but I have my doubts.

 

The good news is that we still have all of our 2019 draft picks and will have a ton of money to spend on FA's next year so we can fix these problems.

[LeGOATski]

4 hours ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

We’re getting that regardless of who the starter is. Even if one of our QB’s step up, they’d need to have Lebron like ability to carry a team. Aside from Shady, the offense talent is almost equivalent to the Cavs supporting cast. 

Yeah...so that we can beat a team from Boston...