77% were wrong believing our HC wouldn't be fooled by the mirage of preseason, but the Allen Era begins week 2!

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

1. McCarron, maybe 75%
2. Peterman, maybe 20%
3. Allen, in case of injury or near-inhuman amounts of improvement

 

Allen has a 5% chance of starting game #1??? Is that what you legitimately believe or are you trolling me here?

[Rockinon]

I personally think the Bills will go with whoever wins the job. I know Josh Allen is taking 3rd string reps to start but it is not so far fetched for him to flat out win the competition in the end. He will need to prove himself of course, but it's all ready clear that he is physically more gifted than the other two QBs on this team. The overall favorite right now is AJ but I think the rookie pulls ahead as training camp and preseason progresses.  Nothing wrong with that and maybe the coach is going to make him fight an up hill battle to earn it. I believe it's just a matter of when not if. This is going to be fun to watch. I like seeing the young guns winning the right to be considered 1st string and Josh has the talent. All he needs is a good teacher and a will to get there.

 

AJ could start the season but I'm thinking the rookie is just too talented to not start.

[ColoradoBills]

16 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay... so is this you trying to say they've already chosen McCarron as the starter in order to "get ahead?"

 

Not trying to be a jerk, I'm just missing your point. 

 

Dabol said he has a plan for Allen, maybe that entails Allen starting right away

 

Answer to highlighted is no about McCarron but yes to "whoever" is selected to get ready.

As to your last sentence, I sure hope he does have a plan for Josh Allen, he better have a plan for all the QBs.

 

If we take my premise about Dabol wanting a QB selected or as Warcodered said below "probably know the starter or have a pretty damn good idea",

that means you got 2 preseason games to decide (the 3rd confirms).  With 3 QBs playing that does not give a lot of passes/plays to come up with a decision.

 

Now before you (or some one else) says you got Training Camp reps to help decide I would just remind you that typically there is only about

10 Training Camp practices before the 1st Preseason game.  The new CBA rules don't give a HC/OC a lot of time on the field to make a decision.

 

Now just taking Josh Allen for instance, he is currently at 3rd QB.  He will need to move up to #2 to start to get enough 2nd and some 1st team

reps to give him a shot at #1.  He will have to play "outstanding" to make all those moves in the short time frame he will have to work with.

Realistically, he along with the other 2 QBs will have some good days and some not so good days.  McDermott will also have a number of closed

practices that the fans/press will only hear rumors about.  It could be a close tough decision.

 

I think the most important thing to watch is the battle for #1 which is going on right now.  If one beats out the other very soon it will establish the

1.2.3 slots quickly.  If the battle for #1 drags on it will be a question of, are both QBs not playing well (helps Allen) or are both QBs playing well (hurts Allen's)

chances of moving up.

 

 

15 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Realistically you'd want to know who the starter is as soon as possible. But given that they're all learning a new system you'd probably want to give them some time to figure it out first. By the third preseason game you'd probably know the starter or have a pretty damn good idea.

 

I think you are right.  It is important when it comes to the timeline of selecting that QB.  Thanks for answering.

[Misterbluesky]

On 5/22/2018 at 4:18 AM, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I think Allen would have to be absolutely lights out during training camp and preseason to get the starting job over McCarron 

The line is weak,I would much rather have him watch so he is without risk of taking a blow to one of his knees,hip,ankle etc.I'm not suggesting i want A.J. to be a sacrificial lamb but.....

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Answer to highlighted is no about McCarron but yes to "whoever" is selected to get ready.

As to your last sentence, I sure hope he does have a plan for Josh Allen, he better have a plan for all the QBs.

 

If we take my premise about Dabol wanting a QB selected or as Warcodered said below "probably know the starter or have a pretty damn good idea",

that means you got 2 preseason games to decide (the 3rd confirms).  With 3 QBs playing that does not give a lot of passes/plays to come up with a decision.

 

Now before you (or some one else) says you got Training Camp reps to help decide I would just remind you that typically there is only about

10 Training Camp practices before the 1st Preseason game.  The new CBA rules don't give a HC/OC a lot of time on the field to make a decision.

 

Now just taking Josh Allen for instance, he is currently at 3rd QB.  He will need to move up to #2 to start to get enough 2nd and some 1st team

reps to give him a shot at #1.  He will have to play "outstanding" to make all those moves in the short time frame he will have to work with.

Realistically, he along with the other 2 QBs will have some good days and some not so good days.  McDermott will also have a number of closed

practices that the fans/press will only hear rumors about.  It could be a close tough decision.

 

I think the most important thing to watch is the battle for #1 which is going on right now.  If one beats out the other very soon it will establish the

1.2.3 slots quickly.  If the battle for #1 drags on it will be a question of, are both QBs not playing well (helps Allen) or are both QBs playing well (hurts Allen's)

chances of moving up.

 

 

 

I think you are right.  It is important when it comes to the timeline of selecting that QB.  Thanks for answering.

I guess where I differ is that they aren’t going to give Allen the 3rd most reps (regardless of where he is on the depth chart). He’s the guy that they are grooming. He may not be ready to go Day 1 but it won’t be because he didn’t get the snaps. He will get as many reps leading into the season as anyone. 

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess where I differ is that they aren’t going to give Allen the 3rd most reps (regardless of where he is on the depth chart). He’s the guy that they are grooming. He may not be ready to go Day 1 but it won’t be because he didn’t get the snaps. He will get as many reps leading into the season as anyone. 

Accurate. That’s why anyone saying he has a minimal chance of taking the starting spot is fooling themselves or trolling. He is going into a camp with Peterman/AJM, neither guy projects as an NFL starter. 

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess where I differ is that they aren’t going to give Allen the 3rd most reps (regardless of where he is on the depth chart). He’s the guy that they are grooming. He may not be ready to go Day 1 but it won’t be because he didn’t get the snaps. He will get as many reps leading into the season as anyone. 

 

I agree with you about him getting plenty of reps.  Maybe I was unclear but I was meaning he won't be getting a lot of Team 1 reps anytime soon.

I least I don't think so.  LOL

 

To start I think he get a majority of reps with the 3-4's and some with the 2's.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I agree with you about him getting plenty of reps.  Maybe I was unclear but I was meaning he won't be getting a lot of Team 1 reps anytime soon.

I least I don't think so.  LOL

 

To start I think he get a majority of reps with the 3-4's and some with the 2's.

That’s makes sense then. I think Allen will see most of his work early with the younger guys down the depth chart. It may not be until camp that he starts working in with the starters. They will be sure to make that happen though. At some point this year we will likely see Allen. I was under the assumption that he would need a year on the bench but it doesn’t sound like that’s the Bills plan.

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s makes sense then. I think Allen will see most of his work early with the younger guys down the depth chart. It may not be until camp that he starts working in with the starters. They will be sure to make that happen though. At some point this year we will likely see Allen. I was under the assumption that he would need a year on the bench but it doesn’t sound like that’s the Bills plan.

 

Thanks for seeing my point Kirby.  I agree with everything in your post.  Of course with the exception of AJ (or Nate) tearing it up and having the Bill's playoff

bound.  I can see the season starting with Allen firmly in the #2 role and being groomed to start when that needs to happen.

 

[Warcodered]

37 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks for seeing my point Kirby.  I agree with everything in your post.  Of course with the exception of AJ (or Nate) tearing it up and having the Bill's playoff

bound.  I can see the season starting with Allen firmly in the #2 role and being groomed to start when that needs to happen.

 

I guess for the preseason for Allen to win the starting spot how soon does he need to move to #2 to have a legitimate shot to compete for #1.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Answer to highlighted is no about McCarron but yes to "whoever" is selected to get ready.

As to your last sentence, I sure hope he does have a plan for Josh Allen, he better have a plan for all the QBs.

 

If we take my premise about Dabol wanting a QB selected or as Warcodered said below "probably know the starter or have a pretty damn good idea",

that means you got 2 preseason games to decide (the 3rd confirms).  With 3 QBs playing that does not give a lot of passes/plays to come up with a decision.

 

Now before you (or some one else) says you got Training Camp reps to help decide I would just remind you that typically there is only about

10 Training Camp practices before the 1st Preseason game.  The new CBA rules don't give a HC/OC a lot of time on the field to make a decision.

 

Now just taking Josh Allen for instance, he is currently at 3rd QB.  He will need to move up to #2 to start to get enough 2nd and some 1st team

reps to give him a shot at #1.  He will have to play "outstanding" to make all those moves in the short time frame he will have to work with.

Realistically, he along with the other 2 QBs will have some good days and some not so good days.  McDermott will also have a number of closed

practices that the fans/press will only hear rumors about.  It could be a close tough decision.

 

I think the most important thing to watch is the battle for #1 which is going on right now.  If one beats out the other very soon it will establish the[

1.2.3 slots quickly.  If the battle for #1 drags on it will be a question of, are both QBs not playing well (helps Allen) or are both QBs playing well (hurts Allen's)

chances of moving up.

 

Wow, so you don't actually think Allen being #3 at the start of OTAs is purely symbolic?

 

I do. 

 

I think no one QB is really ahead of any other solely because this is a brand new offense for all 3 of them.

 

But you legitimately believe McCarron and Peterman are significantly ahead of Allen and that the #1 is really going to come down to Peterman or McCarron because Allen would have to leapfrog too many and it would stretch the competition too long?

 

I totally disagree, but respect your opinion.

 

I also disagree with how much you minimize Training Camp and how much weight you put in preseason games. One thing I think all Bills fans should have learned in the offseason QB competition of 2015 was how much more Training Camp matters than Preseason games. EJ Manuel was the best QB on the field in the 2015 preseason and it didn't seem to mean squat.

[PlayoffsPlease]

It will be Peterman, he will throw 9 interceptions in the first 3 games.  The bar will be set so low at that point, Allen will come in with zero pressure. Fans will be over the moon to have the change. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I guess for the preseason for Allen to win the starting spot how soon does he need to move to #2 to have a legitimate shot to compete for #1.

 

That is the question I'm trying to get a feel from people.  If you were to say that Allen and "the other" both need a preseason start it would have to be

at the start or right after camp opens (a few practices, like I said there probably is only around 10 before the 1st preseason game).

So he would already have to be making a significant move by mini-camp, which is reasonable. 

 

Really this whole idea of what I'm talking about is it probably wouldn't be a good idea to have all 3 sharing #1 snaps too far into camp and if it

ended up with Allen and "the other" battling it our for #1 when would that need to start.

 

17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Wow, so you don't actually think Allen being #3 at the start of OTAs is purely symbolic?

 

I do. 

 

I think no one QB is really ahead of any other solely because this is a brand new offense for all 3 of them.

 

But you legitimately believe McCarron and Peterman are significantly ahead of Allen and that the #1 is really going to come down to Peterman or McCarron because Allen would have to leapfrog too many and it would stretch the competition too long?

 

I totally disagree, but respect your opinion.

 

I also disagree with how much you minimize Training Camp and how much weight you put in preseason games. One thing I think all Bills fans should have learned in the offseason QB competition of 2015 was how much more Training Camp matters than Preseason games. EJ Manuel was the best QB on the field in the 2015 preseason and it didn't seem to mean squat.

 

Transplant, I was only trying to strike up a conversation about the QB selection time frame and what it would look like IF Josh Allen was to become the

starter.  I replied to one of your post because you started this thread and I'm sure it will stay on the 1st page for a while.

 

I didn't mean to get your dander up.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess where I differ is that they aren’t going to give Allen the 3rd most reps (regardless of where he is on the depth chart). He’s the guy that they are grooming. He may not be ready to go Day 1 but it won’t be because he didn’t get the snaps. He will get as many reps leading into the season as anyone. 

 

Exactly.

 

He's #3 right now because he's the youngest statesman and has ZERO NFL experience.

 

In a locker room where you need to earn your job the way McDermott has this set up, it only makes sense for Allen to start out as the #3.

 

That doesn't mean he's staying there long or that McDermott expects him to.

5 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I agree with you about him getting plenty of reps.  Maybe I was unclear but I was meaning he won't be getting a lot of Team 1 reps anytime soon.

I least I don't think so.  LOL

 

To start I think he get a majority of reps with the 3-4's and some with the 2's.

 

If I were to guess, I'd say he's getting his fair share of team #1 reps by the end of the Mandatory Minicamp, if not sooner.

 

And another thing, presenting this as a simple stepladder may be a silly way to view this QB competition. Allen may never even be called "the #2," and yet under the obviously watchful eyes of McDermott and Dabol (just look at reports of how much one-on-one Dabol was doing with Allen at BOTH rookie minicamp AND OTAs) he might be named the #1 at whatever point because he's always pretty clearly being evaluated.

Edited May 29, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Warcodered]

31 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Exactly.

 

He's #3 right now because he's the youngest statesman and has ZERO NFL experience.

 

In a locker room where you need to earn your job the way McDermott has this set up, it only makes sense for Allen to start out as the #3.

 

That doesn't mean he's staying there long or that McDermott expects him to.

 

If I were to guess, I'd say he's getting his fair share of team #1 reps by the end of the Mandatory Minicamp, if not sooner.

 

And another thing, presenting this as a simple stepladder may be a silly way to view this QB competition. Allen may never even be called "the #2," and yet under the obviously watchful eyes of McDermott and Dabol (just look at reports of how much one-on-one Dabol was doing with Allen at BOTH rookie minicamp AND OTAs) he might be named the #1 at whatever point because he's always pretty clearly being evaluated.

I don't think he'll just skip the 2 spot, I think the idea might be to have him at 3 and get reps with the 3s to make his learning of the offensive system and adjustment to the NFL level smoother. I think once he's definitely got a hang of things he'll move to two and be in more of a split competition with whoever is left at 1. Then hopefully he'll beat out whoever that is by the time preseason games come along or just blow them away in them and get the top spot.

 

All of this really depends on McCarron and Peterson if they suck or are just obviously blown out of the water he might just jump up to 1. But if either of them manage to be at least fairly competent I think they'll make him fight for it a bit more.

[Figster]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I don't think he'll just skip the 2 spot, I think the idea might be to have him at 3 and get reps with the 3s to make his learning of the offensive system and adjustment to the NFL level smoother. I think once he's definitely got a hang of things he'll move to two and be in more of a split competition with whoever is left at 1. Then hopefully he'll beat out whoever that is by the time preseason games come along or just blow them away in them and get the top spot.

 

All of this really depends on McCarron and Peterson if they suck or are just obviously blown out of the water he might just jump up to 1. But if either of them manage to be at least fairly competent I think they'll make him fight for it a bit more.

 A J McCarron has waited a long time for a legitimate chance to start in the NFL and he's got everything you need to succeed in my humble opinion.  Peterman is also not going to go away easily.

 

Its very doubtful Josh Allen even makes 2 before the regular season begins IMO.  

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

 A J McCarron has waited a long time for a legitimate chance to start in the NFL and he's got everything you need to succeed in my humble opinion.  Peterman is also not going to go away easily.

 

Its very doubtful Josh Allen even makes 2 before the regular season begins IMO.  

 

I just don't think the fact that a guy who was a 5th round draft pick has been waiting for an opportunity to start means all that much.

 

So what?

 

Hasn't that happened countless times with other mid to late round draft picks? How often have those draft picks gotten their opportunity and been really successful?

 

Yes, McCarron played well in his 4 NFL starts and roughly 170 meaningful NFL pass attempts, but viewing McCarron as the favorite in the eyes of a coaching staff that put a ton of time and effort into getting to know Josh Allen the person and player as a guy who they (mainly McDermott) would be coaching for the next 10-15 years.

 

The fact that Allen is #3 on the depth chart at this moment would be meaningful if Allen were reportedly being talked of as being out of any competition for the #1 spot because that spot has already been named and/or he were reportedly struggling already at the very early stages of OTAs, similarly to Mayfield in Cleveland.

 

But he's not. Allen is reportedly performing pretty well and is really really being talked up by both Beane and McDermott.

[Figster]

36 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I just don't think the fact that a guy who was a 5th round draft pick has been waiting for an opportunity to start means all that much.

 

So what?

 

Hasn't that happened countless times with other mid to late round draft picks? How often have those draft picks gotten their opportunity and been really successful?

 

Yes, McCarron played well in his 4 NFL starts and roughly 170 meaningful NFL pass attempts, but viewing McCarron as the favorite in the eyes of a coaching staff that put a ton of time and effort into getting to know Josh Allen the person and player as a guy who they (mainly McDermott) would be coaching for the next 10-15 years.

 

The fact that Allen is #3 on the depth chart at this moment would be meaningful if Allen were reportedly being talked of as being out of any competition for the #1 spot because that spot has already been named and/or he were reportedly struggling already at the very early stages of OTAs, similarly to Mayfield in Cleveland.

 

But he's not. Allen is reportedly performing pretty well and is really really being talked up by both Beane and McDermott.

Buffalo just had success recently with a later round draft pick and the Pats have won multiple championships with a late round draft choice.  Meanwhile the last few 1st round draft choices for the Buffalo Bills have not gone well so spare me the lecture on how things are supposed to work.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Figster

[transplantbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, Figster said:

Buffalo just had success with a later round draft pick and the Pats have won multiple championships with a late round draft choice.  Meanwhile the last few 1st round draft choices for the Buffalo Bills have not gone well so spare me the lecture on how things are supposed to work.

 

Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady are outliers.

 

Isn't that obvious?

 

Plus, Brady only saw the field due to injury and Taylor was really the dark horse of a QB competition and came out ahead of a former 1st round bust who had been given the previous 2 years to bloom.

 

Same thing happened with Kurt Warner.

 

Same thing even happened, to an extent, with Russell Wilson.

 

Mid round QBs typically need a great deal more luck to get a shot than 1st round QBs and are also typically on a much shorter leash.

 

Look, I am not rooting against McCarron, but the fact that some are talking about him like he's the incumbent or like he's earned his year as the #1 already is just strange.

 

Like I said, McCarron might win, I just think the odds are more in Allen's favor than McCarron's.

Edited May 29, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Putin]

8 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Answer to highlighted is no about McCarron but yes to "whoever" is selected to get ready.

As to your last sentence, I sure hope he does have a plan for Josh Allen, he better have a plan for all the QBs.

 

If we take my premise about Dabol wanting a QB selected or as Warcodered said below "probably know the starter or have a pretty damn good idea",

that means you got 2 preseason games to decide (the 3rd confirms).  With 3 QBs playing that does not give a lot of passes/plays to come up with a decision.

 

Now before you (or some one else) says you got Training Camp reps to help decide I would just remind you that typically there is only about

10 Training Camp practices before the 1st Preseason game.  The new CBA rules don't give a HC/OC a lot of time on the field to make a decision.

 

Now just taking Josh Allen for instance, he is currently at 3rd QB.  He will need to move up to #2 to start to get enough 2nd and some 1st team

reps to give him a shot at #1.  He will have to play "outstanding" to make all those moves in the short time frame he will have to work with.

Realistically, he along with the other 2 QBs will have some good days and some not so good days.  McDermott will also have a number of closed

practices that the fans/press will only hear rumors about.  It could be a close tough decision.

 

I think the most important thing to watch is the battle for #1 which is going on right now.  If one beats out the other very soon it will establish the

1.2.3 slots quickly.  If the battle for #1 drags on it will be a question of, are both QBs not playing well (helps Allen) or are both QBs playing well (hurts Allen's)

chances of moving up.

 

 

 

I think you are right.  It is important when it comes to the timeline of selecting that QB.  Thanks for answering.

I have to disagree ! If ( like your saying) it becomes a close competition between the 3 QB’s and will become a tough decision for the coaches ! ( IMO )  it’s not a thought decision at all you start Allen ,