Buffalo Weather Reporters are clueless

[TheElectricCompany]

Weather nerd ramblings - I think microclimate is a very overused term. You have to define what is changing....ex. precipitation, temperature, or the climate itself, with respect to distance and percentage change. 

 

In Buffalo, the lake effect bands are what are most relevant. For the other three seasons, the geography doesn't throw enough of a curveball to dramatically change things. 

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[ExiledInIllinois]

23 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Weather nerd ramblings - I think microclimate is a very overused term. You have to define what is changing....ex. precipitation, temperature, or the climate itself, with respect to distance and percentage change. 

 

In Buffalo, the lake effect bands are what are most relevant. For the other three seasons, the geography doesn't throw enough of a curveball to dramatically change things. 

 

No.  It's the growing seasons too, etc... etc...

 

Summers are cool.  Winters warmer and tempered, delayed Spring,  Late Fall.

[DC Tom]

10 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

This. People don't realize how rain can fall differently over close places. Take a look at this map.

 

https://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=usa

 

ive been a part of this organization for a few years.

 

You'd think that, if anyone, people in WNY would understand that, given that everyone in the region has seen snow accumulation go from a few inches to five feet over a mile's distance.

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 minute ago, DC Tom said:

 

You'd think that, if anyone, people in WNY would understand that, given that everyone in the region has seen snow accumulation go from a few inches to five feet over a mile's distance.

You'd think, right?

 

So people are clueless.  Snow is not rain they will probably tell you.  /wallbash 

Just sum it up.  Idiots!

[TheElectricCompany]

18 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

No.  It's the growing seasons too, etc... etc...

 

Summers are cool.  Winters warmer and tempered, delayed Spring,  Late Fall.

Specifics Illinois. Growing seasons are factors of temperature, precipitation, last frost date, etc.

Most of WNY seems to fall in zone 5-6. Yes, there are isolated pockets. I reinforce my point that microclimate is largely up to interpretation. Is 5-10 degrees in low temperature minimum noteworthy? Maybe. Most plants are !@#$ed if it's -20 or -25 regardless! 

Then again, my views are based on my observations of CO and CA microclimates. I am 37 miles from an area that got 330" of snow this year, compared to 33" here . Working out of San Jose every quarter, the weather between the coast, Silicon Valley, and the inland cities is much more dramatic. 60 and foggy in San Francisco, 90 and sunny in Stockton isn't crazy. I

Edited May 11, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Marv's Neighbor]

Every location has its own forecast considerations.   I've lived in; BUF,  N Virginia, Chicago, Houston and Seattle.  They all had their geography to complicate the forecast.

 

Most cities on the W coast, are more of a guess, because of the lack of reporting locations in the Pacific.  San Francisco & Seattle being examples.  If you have coastal mountain ranges between the city and the coast, all bets are off because the weather systems come off the Pacific, hit the mountains ans usually split, and do an end run around the mountain ranges.  It's anybody's guess how/where they will clear the mountains and effect the cities as they move East.

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 hour ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Specifics Illinois. Growing seasons are factors of temperature, precipitation, last frost date, etc.

Most of WNY seems to fall in zone 5-6. Yes, there are isolated pockets. I reinforce my point that microclimate is largely up to interpretation. Is 5-10 degrees in low temperature minimum noteworthy? Maybe. Most plants are !@#$ed if it's -20 or -25 regardless! 

Then again, my views are based on my observations of CO and CA microclimates. I am 37 miles from an area that got 330" of snow this year, compared to 33" here . Working out of San Jose every quarter, the weather between the coast, Silicon Valley, and the inland cities is much more dramatic. 60 and foggy in San Francisco, 90 and sunny in Stockton isn't crazy. I

Last frost is important.  Getting plants in without risk.

 

Of course there are bigger swings with microclimates elsewhere.  You're still not boating on the Eastern basin of Lake Erie till @ least end of April/May.  Other places March, even February! The seasons are definitely shifted by a month around Buffalo than say 40 miles inland.  That's not always a bad thing.

 

Orographic effect plays a major part w/more defined microclimates. As is the case where you are.

Edited May 11, 2018 by ExiledInIllinois

[row_33]

2 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Weather nerd ramblings - I think microclimate is a very overused term. You have to define what is changing....ex. precipitation, temperature, or the climate itself, with respect to distance and percentage change. 

 

In Buffalo, the lake effect bands are what are most relevant. For the other three seasons, the geography doesn't throw enough of a curveball to dramatically change things. 

 

 

driving from Toronto through Cleveland and back for many college football trips led me to never be surprised at what I found weather-wise coming to the next city.

 

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by row_33

[ExiledInIllinois]

13 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

driving from Toronto through Cleveland and back for many college football trips led me to never be surprised at what I found weather-wise coming to the next city.

 

 

Same thing here between Chicago & BFLo every other month. 

 

We go through Detroit-Windsor... Or enter @ Sarnia @ times to take S.Ontario route... To avoid alee of the Lake.

[row_33]

15 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Same thing here between Chicago & BFLo every other month. 

 

We go through Detroit-Windsor... Or enter @ Sarnia @ times to take S.Ontario route... To avoid alee of the Lake.

 

Cleveland would be buried under snow, not a trace in Buffalo, and vice versa, with Toronto getting either of the situations.

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

37 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

 

! The seasons are definitely shifted by a month around Buffalo than say 40 miles inland.  That's not always a bad thing.

 

Orographic effect plays a major part w/more defined microclimates. As is the case where you are.

I'm not so sure the data would support that first statement, but whatever. 

 

Getting back to the subject at hand, I don't think the geography of WNY is the reason why the forecasts are inaccurate. There are small scale microclimates in every state. Of course, once you get close to the oceans and large mountain ranges, things change quickly. You can get a arid desert and subarctic continental climate within 30 miles.

 

Outside of lake effect bands, where a few miles make the difference AND weather models don't have the resolution to pinpoint those systems, you just don't have many many variables to throw the simulations for a loop. Why are they clueless? Because meteorologists have always batted .500, and until the models improve, that's just how it's going to be. 

Edited May 11, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[row_33]

i thought they bumped temperature highs for weekend forecasts so people would be less likely to be depressed and kill themselves.

 

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

24 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Cleveland would be buried under snow, not a trace in Buffalo, and vice versa, with Toronto getting either of the situations.

 

 

Belts: South Bend, then clear thru Toledo to Clev-Ashtabula.  White knucke thru Erie.

 

Worst drive ever... Pitt to Erie.  Straight into a band.  I should have "tacked" east.

26 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I'm not so sure the data would support that first statement, but whatever. 

 

Getting back to the subject at hand, I don't think the geography of WNY is the reason why the forecasts are inaccurate. There are small scale microclimates in every state. Of course, once you get close to the oceans and large mountain ranges, things change quickly. You can get a arid desert and subarctic continental climate within 30 miles.

 

Outside of lake effect bands, where a few miles make the difference AND weather models don't have the resolution to pinpoint those systems, you just don't have many many variables to throw the simulations for a loop. Why are they clueless? Because meteorologists have always batted .500, and until the models improve, that's just how it's going to be. 

You get Lake Effect rain too.

[Misterbluesky]

33 minutes ago, row_33 said:

i thought they bumped temperature highs for weekend forecasts so people would be less likely to be depressed and kill themselves.

 

 

You must watch Kevin O'Connell.

[sherpa]

There are so many factors that effect weather on a daily basis, but over time, it works out.

One of the things that has a significant effect on weather at that latitude is the meandering nature of the jetstream during the mid-late spring period.

The jet is extremely hard to predict over a 50 mile range, and the effects of weather if north or south of it are huge.

By mid to late June it settles in to its normal summer range, and things get a lot easier.

 

This time of year is is wandering hundreds of miles per day.

Sometimes it effects WNY weather, and sometimes it doesn't.

All of the other local effects, ie., lake effect, orthographic lifting etc.,  pale in comparison.

[row_33]

44 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

You must watch Kevin O'Connell.

 

someone told me this and i started watching for weekends forecasts starting Tuesday, and they always inflate it for the weekend, maybe Al Gore tells them to do this as well.